Can You Smell the Relegation Flop Sweat?

I can.  After doing just enough to take a 1-0 lead against QPR in the first half, Newcastle sleepwalked through the second half, surrendered two goals and never mounted a serious threat again.  The 2-1 loss leaves them in 17th, two points ahead of Hull with one game to go.  The ultimate ignominy?  Being taunted by QPR fans with "You're going down with the Rangers."

Each of the QPR goals elicited a healthy expletive from me, to which Laura commented that she hadn't heard me react quite so sharply to negative events.  (Having watched this game as well, I was also almost swearing at Newcastle.  This was an especially painful loss even for us semi-neutrals.) Part of it was the cumulative mistakes that lead to the tallies, part of it was two plus months of watching this team slide into the abyss and part of it was the growing realization that I might not be able to follow this team next year. Okay, that last point might be the silver lining. Maybe some time watching EPL as a neutral could be a good thing.

If Newcastle do survive this year, it will likely be just a one year reprieve.  Just because there are three teams below you doesn't mean you belong in the EPL.  This is a truly awful team that would have easily been relegation fodder if not for a five game win streak in the fall.  Unlike some, I don't think relegation is likely to lead to improvement in the long run; they were relegated in 2009 and nothing changed.  The ugly scenarios will be disgust discussed below.



Sometimes a 6-1 Loss Is Enough

As Dennis may or may not describe in detail, Aston Villa were absolutely hammered by Southampton but it didn't matter a few hours later when Hull lost to Tottenham.  The Villans are safe for another season in the EPL.

I didn't even make it through the whole match, bailing at 72 minutes, so that would be a no on the play-by-play.  Given that travelling fans were leaving the stadium at 4-0 in the 26th minutes, I felt perfectly justified.  At least the Villans were a part of history, as Southampton's Mane netted the fastest hat trick in EPL history in two different ways - shortest time between goals (2 minutes, 56 seconds), and shortest time into the game (16 minutes).  It was quite clear that we were not getting anything from this game and that my hopes rested on Hull anyway, so why subject myself to another 20 minutes of misery? [Because that's what we do?]

Spurs win over Hull was much more satisfying.  Hull actually looked decent but once Spurs got the first goal it felt fairly over and the second goal secured Villa's place in the next EPL season.  I would say that I am looking forward to next season, but I will wait for the summer transfer window before I make any decisions.  And that summer transfer window looks like it might largely be determined by the result in the FA Cup final because players apparently care about playing in Europe even if it's in the lesser league.  If our key players - mainly Delph, Benteke, Vlaar - all return, I feel a solid mid table finish could be in the cards.  Right now, I get to relax, enjoy safety, and look forward to a cup final.  Not in a million years would I have guessed that our final weekend match against Burnley would have zero implications, but I am not complaining.


Places Decided

In addition to Aston Villa, a few other sides saw their futures resolved.   Leicester's 0-0 draw with Sunderland means the Foxes will stay up this year (which Dennis kinda, sorta predicted would happen much earlier this season).  Similarly, Sunderland's 0-0 draw with Arsenal on Wednesday put the Black Cats safely out of the reach of relegation.  Swansea's 2-4 loss to Man City ended their hopes for Europe next season, while the wins by Tottenham and Southampton coupled with Liverpool's loss to Crystal Palace means that places 5-7 are still up in the air.

The 0-0 draw at Old Trafford briefly kept Manchester United's hope for third place alive but with Arsenal's draw on Wednesday and their worse goal differential, it will take a miracle on Sunday for the Red Devils to finish ahead of the Gunners.  Some are making fun of him but MUN defender Phil Jones went to extraordinary lengths to prevent Giroud from having a goal scoring attempt.  Sure he probably wasn't using his head (well technically he was but maybe it wasn't too smart) but maybe if more Newcastle players showed this kind of commitment, they wouldn't be in the mess they're in.


Better on This Side of the Pond

Chester-on-Delaware was a happier place this weekend.  Sure, DC United was injury-ridden and played the last few minutes a man down (injury with no subs left), but the 1-0 win was still appreciated.  And frankly, the Union had outplayed them for most of the match so it wasn't wholly undeserved.  They've been exhibiting a few too many similarities to Newcastle recently, from bizarre management decisions to truly awful on-field performances.  But, at least the players appear to be trying hard.


Scenarios

Newcastle survive with a win over West Ham regardless of what Hull does and Hull goes down with anything less than a win over Manchester United.  I had hoped that Man United might have a shot at third to motivate them a bit but that's not the case anymore.  A Hull win coupled with a Newcastle loss or draw will send the Magpies down to the Championship division.

Europa League qualifying situation is complicated by 1) the fact that we don't know whether just 5th and 6th  make it (if Aston Villa win FA Cup) or 7th is in too (if Arsenal win the FA Cup) and 2) just two points separate Liverpool (62), Tottenham (61) and Southampton (60).  So basically any of the three could finish in any of the 5th through 7th spots.  All have road matches but the odds would seem to favor Liverpool (at Stoke) and Tottenham (at Everton) over Southampton (at Man City).

All 10 matches are at 10 am Sunday on one of NBC's vast network of stations.  Schedule is below:

10:00 a.m., NBC and Telemundo: Hull City vs. Manchester United
10:00 a.m., NBCSN and NBC Universo: Chelsea vs. Sunderland
10:00 a.m., USA Network: Newcastle United vs. West Ham United
10:00 a.m., CNBC: Everton vs. Tottenham Hotspur
10:00 a.m., MSNBC: Manchester City vs. Southampton
10:00 a.m., Syfy: Stoke City vs. Liverpool
10:00 a.m., Bravo: Arsenal vs. West Bromwich Albion
10:00 a.m., E!: Crystal Palace vs. Swansea City
10:00 a.m., Esquire: Aston Villa vs. Burnley
10:00 a.m., Oxygen: Leicester City vs. Queens Park Rangers

The Union will take their one game winning streak up the NJ Turnpike to face the Red Bulls on Sunday.  Yikes, that could be a tough one.

Forgot to mention last week's CL 1-1 semi-final second leg between Juventus and Real Madrid, which meant that JUV won the aggregate 3-2.  Ronaldo's PK had given Real a 1-0 lead at 23 minutes, which would have been enough for them to advance but Morata leveled things at 57 minutes.  Great viewing for the neutral (actually I was pulling for Juventus so as to avoid a La Liga final for the second straight year and because they have the cool Newcastle black and white stripe jersey). That sets up the CL final between Juventus and Barcelona on Saturday June 6th.

Relegation Sunday beckons...