Stop Dissing the FA Cup

Okay, so last week I was a bit cavalier in saying most of us had the weekend off.  Sorry Michael B, I'm not referring to La Liga.  Maybe when this blog starts to turn a profit, we'll expand our coverage to the Spanish teams but right now we don't have the resources.  No, I'm referring to the FA Cup.  Even though many sides we follow here at BFS were already out of the competition (Newcastle, Tottenham, Everton, not to mention Chelsea, Man City, and Southampton), several were still playing. 

Arsenal disposed of Middlesbrough 2-0 on goals by Olivier Giroud at 27 and 29 minutes.  Manchester United struggled to find their game, fell behind Preston 0-1 but came away with a 3-1 win.  Check out Rooney's dive to earn a PK in this week's YouTubeableMoment; is that a 5 Ronaldo performance or what? Liverpool survived their return trip to Crystal Palace of Horrors - the place where last season's chances for the EPL title ended in a monumental collapse - with a 2-1 win.  On the other hand, two more top table EPL sides went down - West Ham 0-4 to West Brom and Stoke 1-4 to Blackburn.

And then there is the inexplicable Aston Villa.  Their 2-1 win over Leicester moves the Villans, who are currently in the relegation zone, onto the quarterfinals. Two statistics tell the story:

Goals in EPL competition  12 (25 games)
Goals in FA Cup                 5 (3 games)  

Go figure.

But you can also split their goals along these lines:

Goals against Leicester City/Burnley  5 (4 games)
Goals against everyone else                12 (24 games)  

which feels about right.

Leandro Bacuna opened the scoring in the second half with a powerful strike from long range at Villa Park(Daily Mail)

So the final eight includes five EPL sides, two from the Championship division and one from League One.  Just three squads in the top eight of English football are still alive.  While that is somewhat misleading because they don't use seeding in the tournament (i.e. the second best team could meet the fourth best team in an early round just by random luck - misfortune?), it does give you an idea of how many upsets there have been.  For a more complete explanation of the FA Cup, you can check out this post from last year.  The whole thing is wonderfully goofy, especially because of the lack of seeding, but it can be entertaining.


February in Chester

Light viewing gave me a chance to spend some time with Football Manager.  February was a trying month for the Blues.  We had seven matches in 28 days, a tough schedule, and some serious injuries.  The bad news is we had consecutive losses for the first time this season (on the road versus Man United and Man City) and some draws that should have been W's.  The good news is we won our 5th Round FA Cup match and will face, gulp, Man United in the quarters.  The other good news is that 2-2-2 in the six EPL matches was enough to keep us in 4th - for now.  Not ruing my passing on the Everton job yet.


Relegation Woes

Right now, we're thinking that 34 to 36 points will probably be enough to avoid relegation.  Dennis and I  question whether Aston Villa can get 12-14 points from their remaining 13 matches; they will have to get results against mid-table teams to make it.  A good place to start would be this Saturday at home versus Stoke.  New manager Tim Sherwood's talk at half time vs Leicester seemed to make a difference so maybe we'll see improved play from the Villans.

Sunday's match between Southampton and Liverpool looks good; both are fighting for a Champions League spot and often play attractive football so it's probably worth checking out.  Chelsea shouldn't be troubled at all by Burnley, especially at Stamford Bridge.  West Ham have fallen off some from their early start but Tottenham can't be complacent when they face the Hammers at 7 am on Sunday morning.  Arsenal could find themselves in third place come Sunday evening, assuming they win their London derby with Crystal Palace; given how the Gunners have regularly smacked around Alan Pardew's squads, three points look very possible.  Also at the top end, Manchester United travel to Wales to face Swansea City, a side that has looked very much adrift since Bony left for Man City.  Relegation relevant matches include Hull hosting QPR and Sunderland hosting West Brom; the Baggies have been playing better under Tony Pulis and are coming off a 4-0 thrashing of West Ham in the FA Cup so maybe their chances of staying up are improving.

And speaking of Bony and Man City, the Ivorian will likely make his debut for the Citizens on Saturday afternoon versus Newcastle.  The Magpies form has been mediocre though not awful of late but this match does not look like a place to pick up any points.   With Dummett's season-ending injury, Newcastle are down to four fit defenders.  Absolutely staggering when you realize that not only did they choose not to bring in any defenders during the January transfer window, they actually let two go (Santon and Yanga-Mbiwa).

Don't forget to set the alarm for that 7 am Tottenham match on Sunday.