How Would You Prefer to Lose?

If Alfred Lord Tennyson had been a soccer fan he might have posed the question whether 'tis better to have led and lost than to never have led at all.  After watching Aston Villa's heart-wrenching last minute 1-2 defeat to Stoke, followed immediately by Newcastle's 0-5 shellacking at the hands of Manchester City, I'm going with the former.  Aston Villa was exciting, Newcastle was unwatchable (except that I did watch).  Table wise it's a different story.  Newcastle was always going to lose that match, you just hoped for something more entertaining.  For Aston Villa, that was exactly the place to steal a point to help in the relegation battle.  

It was also exactly the script by which we got the majority of our points in the early season.  We won three of our first four games by scoring early and holding strong, so when we scored in the first twenty minutes I thought we might be able to recreate some of the old magic.  But this game is probably how most of the earlier ones should have ended, with defensive lapses costing Villa a crucial 1-3 points. Despite Michael B fully jumping on the Villa bandwagon, relegation inches closer.

 

Champions League Race Is On

Tottenham - West Ham was the match of the weekend.  Spurs down 0-2 but with the run of play for much of the match.  In the 81st minute Danny Rose got them on the board, setting up a wild finish.  Then a PK call in stoppage time.  The actual PK was stopped by Adrian but Kane was able to put the rebound in the net.  Sure, the PK call was on the soft side but Tottenham arguably should have been playing a man up for much of the second half after Noble was not shown a second yellow for a rash challenge. 

Kane relief: Harry Kane scores from the follow-up to his own saved penalty to earn Tottenham at point at White Hart Lane against West Ham Photo: GETTY IMAGES

Southampton-Liverpool was good but not as much as I had hoped.  More notable for referee Kevin Friend's difficult day with three penalty shouts and a possible DOGSO for Liverpool keeper Simon Mignolet.  Manchester United upset by Swansea, Arsenal get by Crystal Palace.  When the dust settled, Arsenal in third, followed in quick succession (1 point difference) by Man United, Southampton, Liverpool and Tottenham; just four points between 3rd and 7th.

BFS Derby

Smarting from last Saturday's defeats, Aston Villa and Newcastle will square off on Saturday; no live TV for this fixture so Dennis and I will be streaming on Live Extra.  Can you blame them for passing on this one?

As a nice bonus, we will be watching this one from the same location.  And we might both be rooting for Aston Villa, because, honestly, is Steve really going to be sad if Newcastle lose this match?  Does it really make a difference?  Not sure I'd go that quite that far - a win pretty much would end the relegation threat, a tie would be helpful.  The problem is that the Magpies are unlikely to pick up points in March (Manchester United, Everton and Arsenal) and April (Sunderland, Liverpool, Tottenham and Swansea); there are several good opportunities to get the necessary points in May but by that time we'll be in full panic mode.  Plus there's the little matter of history between the two clubs; Aston Villa fans were not so kind when the boot was on the other foot 2009.  Dennis, don't forget your scarf; I'm wearing mine even if you don't have one.

Frankly not the greatest of line-ups this weekend.  Though it doesn't count in the standings, the most interesting fixture is Sunday's Capital One League Cup final between Chelsea and Tottenham on BeIN Sports at 11 am.  Will have to find a viewing location as we do not get that channel.

As for EPL matches, Liverpool-Manchester City early Sunday could be good.  I expect the Citizens will find Liverpool a touch more competitive than the Magpies.  Other matches of the CL contenders look easy but after Chelsea's home draw to Burnley last week, I'll be more circumspect.  But really, Manchester United hosting Sunderland, Arsenal hosting Everton, and Southampton at West Brom all sound like wins, right?

No straight up relegation battles, but as I note above, Newcastle still need a few more points to assure safety so the match with Aston Villa may have see both sides a bit desperate.

 

Stop Dissing the FA Cup

Okay, so last week I was a bit cavalier in saying most of us had the weekend off.  Sorry Michael B, I'm not referring to La Liga.  Maybe when this blog starts to turn a profit, we'll expand our coverage to the Spanish teams but right now we don't have the resources.  No, I'm referring to the FA Cup.  Even though many sides we follow here at BFS were already out of the competition (Newcastle, Tottenham, Everton, not to mention Chelsea, Man City, and Southampton), several were still playing. 

Arsenal disposed of Middlesbrough 2-0 on goals by Olivier Giroud at 27 and 29 minutes.  Manchester United struggled to find their game, fell behind Preston 0-1 but came away with a 3-1 win.  Check out Rooney's dive to earn a PK in this week's YouTubeableMoment; is that a 5 Ronaldo performance or what? Liverpool survived their return trip to Crystal Palace of Horrors - the place where last season's chances for the EPL title ended in a monumental collapse - with a 2-1 win.  On the other hand, two more top table EPL sides went down - West Ham 0-4 to West Brom and Stoke 1-4 to Blackburn.

And then there is the inexplicable Aston Villa.  Their 2-1 win over Leicester moves the Villans, who are currently in the relegation zone, onto the quarterfinals. Two statistics tell the story:

Goals in EPL competition  12 (25 games)
Goals in FA Cup                 5 (3 games)  

Go figure.

But you can also split their goals along these lines:

Goals against Leicester City/Burnley  5 (4 games)
Goals against everyone else                12 (24 games)  

which feels about right.

Leandro Bacuna opened the scoring in the second half with a powerful strike from long range at Villa Park(Daily Mail)

So the final eight includes five EPL sides, two from the Championship division and one from League One.  Just three squads in the top eight of English football are still alive.  While that is somewhat misleading because they don't use seeding in the tournament (i.e. the second best team could meet the fourth best team in an early round just by random luck - misfortune?), it does give you an idea of how many upsets there have been.  For a more complete explanation of the FA Cup, you can check out this post from last year.  The whole thing is wonderfully goofy, especially because of the lack of seeding, but it can be entertaining.


February in Chester

Light viewing gave me a chance to spend some time with Football Manager.  February was a trying month for the Blues.  We had seven matches in 28 days, a tough schedule, and some serious injuries.  The bad news is we had consecutive losses for the first time this season (on the road versus Man United and Man City) and some draws that should have been W's.  The good news is we won our 5th Round FA Cup match and will face, gulp, Man United in the quarters.  The other good news is that 2-2-2 in the six EPL matches was enough to keep us in 4th - for now.  Not ruing my passing on the Everton job yet.


Relegation Woes

Right now, we're thinking that 34 to 36 points will probably be enough to avoid relegation.  Dennis and I  question whether Aston Villa can get 12-14 points from their remaining 13 matches; they will have to get results against mid-table teams to make it.  A good place to start would be this Saturday at home versus Stoke.  New manager Tim Sherwood's talk at half time vs Leicester seemed to make a difference so maybe we'll see improved play from the Villans.

Sunday's match between Southampton and Liverpool looks good; both are fighting for a Champions League spot and often play attractive football so it's probably worth checking out.  Chelsea shouldn't be troubled at all by Burnley, especially at Stamford Bridge.  West Ham have fallen off some from their early start but Tottenham can't be complacent when they face the Hammers at 7 am on Sunday morning.  Arsenal could find themselves in third place come Sunday evening, assuming they win their London derby with Crystal Palace; given how the Gunners have regularly smacked around Alan Pardew's squads, three points look very possible.  Also at the top end, Manchester United travel to Wales to face Swansea City, a side that has looked very much adrift since Bony left for Man City.  Relegation relevant matches include Hull hosting QPR and Sunderland hosting West Brom; the Baggies have been playing better under Tony Pulis and are coming off a 4-0 thrashing of West Ham in the FA Cup so maybe their chances of staying up are improving.

And speaking of Bony and Man City, the Ivorian will likely make his debut for the Citizens on Saturday afternoon versus Newcastle.  The Magpies form has been mediocre though not awful of late but this match does not look like a place to pick up any points.   With Dummett's season-ending injury, Newcastle are down to four fit defenders.  Absolutely staggering when you realize that not only did they choose not to bring in any defenders during the January transfer window, they actually let two go (Santon and Yanga-Mbiwa).

Don't forget to set the alarm for that 7 am Tottenham match on Sunday.

A Proper Derby

No, not the Liverpool-Everton 0-0 snoozefest, where the highlight was a shot that hit the post. I mean the Tottenham-Arsenal match, in which there were shots, saves, fouls and goals.

We hosted a small mixed group of Spurs fans, Gunners fans and neutrals and everybody was into the game.  The atmosphere was punctuated with "whoas," "ohs" and the occasional "damn." Can't say everybody left happy but the Arsenal fans were polite and didn't trash the house when the final whistle blew on the 2-1 Spurs victory. 2-1? Same as the scarf count (Michael B brought an extra). Probably just coincidence. Sure it was.                                                                                                                                               Michael B and Michael P shake hands (clearly before the match)


Give Us This Day Our Daily Blind
 
Manchester United eked out a 1-1 draw with West Ham when midfielder Daley Blind scored from the top of the box in the 92nd minute.  That was just one of four stoppage time goals that affected results this weekend.  James Milner also scored in the 92nd minute to allow Manchester City to come away with a 1-1 draw against Hull City; the Citizens are not going to repeat as champions if they can't win matches at home against squads like that.  Sadio Mane' scored in the 93rd minute to take Southampton past perpetually unlucky QPR.

Which brings us to the fourth stoppage time goal - Peter Crouch for Stoke City in the 90th minute (I know that's technically not stoppage time but it sounds better that way) to tie Newcastle 1-1.  This was not a particularly fine match though it did have some of the nastiness of a derby.  Jack Colback had put Newcastle up 1-0 in the 74th minute with a somewhat lucky strike from the 18.  Stoke manager Mark Hughes was livid as Colback could have been issued his second yellow seconds earlier.  Maybe, but he probably shouldn't have been given the first one so let's call it even.  Credit to permanent interim temporary until summer manager John Carver for subbing in Cisse' for Anita; though Cisse' was not involved in the goal, at least it showed that he was willing to sacrifice defense in going for the win.  The Magpies blew a couple of late scoring opportunities that left them thinking they could have had all three points.  Truth be told, a draw was a fair result.  Stoke had more possession, Newcastle the better scoring chances.

Playboy Mansion in Ruins

A once proud institution that has fallen on hard times indeed (Ted Lasso's Explanation).  A 2-0 loss to Hull finally puts the Villans officially in the relegation battle after a 3 month slide from second in the table.  There is nothing to say about this performance that I haven't said in the past 3 weeks, so I won't waste anyone's time with more sentences littered with depressing adjectives and curse words.  We've had the goal differential of a relegation team for months and now we have the place in the table to back it up.  

The loss also finally cost Paul Lambert his job, which can't really be a surprise at this point.  With multiple 6+ match winless streaks and the worst goal-per-game ratio in league history at 0.48, how can at least one head not roll?  I don't know if the change will really have that much of an impact as I tend to downplay the role managers have on a team, but this does kind of feel like a group of players that aren't playing up to their talent level.  It has even been suggested that players (*cough* Benteke *cough*) were out of shape and that there wasn't proper training at the club.  Weekly comments at my house back up this claim, as a constant refrain from Emily goes something like "Why doesn't Benteke run any faster?  I thought he was faster than that."

While two internal coaches take over in the interim, many names have been thrown around for potential replacements, with Tim Sherwood and Jurgen Klinsmann being the most repeated and most interesting names.  There will not likely be a full-time replacement until the summer, so no need for more speculating, but it will be interesting to follow the search.  Nothing else to do for now but ride out the rest of the season and hope they can score what few goals they have left at crucial moments. At least Mike B put my misery in perspective today (though I think it was accidental) when he mentioned that there are a lot of supporters going back before the 2012-2013 season - I don't have 20+ years of grasping at faded memories of glory to bring me down even further.

Handling on the Line

In more upbeat news, Adrian, goalkeeper for West Ham, got a red card!  Why is that good news you ask?  Because he was given the card for grabbing the ball after thinking he got fouled - the first cousin of being booked for simulation.  Adrian got into a sticky situation with Southampton's Mane', dribbled outside of the box, thought he was fouled, so he dove on the ball and grabbed it.  Everyone stopped playing and Adrian stood up, but no whistle had been blown to stop play.  So Adrian dove hands first onto the ball outside of the box, again.  He promptly received a red card for what Sky Sports reported as "handling on the line" [which of course is silly - if it is on the line of the penalty area then he is allowed to handle the ball; the handling occurred outside the box - I'm curious about the red - Pawson had to determine that Adrian's handling denied an obvious goal scoring opportunity - but for the first handling Mane was moving away from goal and for the second there were West Ham defenders goalside] and gave the best indignantly surprised look you'll see for some time.  Priceless.

Balotelli Scores

To the chagrin of Spurs fans. In the highlight of the midweek games, Mario Balotelli's clinical finish of a Lallana cross was the difference in Liverpool's 3-2 win over Tottenham; that was the Italian's first goal this season in EPL play.  Some sympathy for Tottenham in that they played well enough to maybe deserve a draw at Anfield.  On the other hand, Kane was pretty clearly offside when he made the pass on Tottenham's second goal.

The top three all won their contests so no change at the top.  But Southampton's draw with West Ham coupled with Arsenal (2-1 over Leicester) and Liverpool wins means the race for the Champions League is on.  After Wednesday, just five points separate 3rd through 7th.

Newcastle played a decent first half, then seemed to lose interest and came away with a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace and their former manager Alan Pardew.  Five points in three matches means the threat of relegation is just about gone but so is the threat of Champions League or Europa Cup.  A cynic suggested that this was in fact a great January transfer window; for the first time in three years, Newcastle did not lose a key player.

FA Cup Weekend

Which means most of us are idle.  Does this say FA Cup or what?  Aston Villa (18th in the EPL table) will face Leicester (20th in the EPL table) in a round of sixteen match this weekend.

North London Derby

Saturday morning (7:45 am) will see Tottenham host Arsenal in the continuation of perhaps English football's fiercest rivalry.  Citing historical results gets a little tricky because you have to decide whether to count all competitions including FA Cup, League Cup, when the two teams met outside of the first division and even friendlies (which seems counter to the spirit of a derby but there have been 26 friendlies, the last one in 1990).  The two sides first squared off on November 19, 1887 but that was a friendly; the first division 1 clash occurred on December 4, 1909.  Counting all meetings, Arsenal has won 104, Tottenham 91, with 60 draws.  Counting only division one and premier league (including FA Cup and League Cup, the numbers are 74 Arsenal wins, 54 Tottenham wins and 45 draws.

This particular meeting is quite important as both clubs are in the hunt for a Champions League spot.  The winner could be sitting in fourth by Sunday afternoon.  It's probably slightly more critical for Spurs, who sit in 6th, two points behind the Gunners, to get a result but both really need the points.

Aside from being a real derby, the match is also a Monday Night Basketball derby for Michael B (Tottenham) and Luke P (Arsenal).  Both have sent me emails in the days leading up to the contest.

From Michael B:

I caught the West Brom v Spurs match yesterday morning via NBC Sports streaming.  It was exciting and enjoyable, and relaxing in that the goals came early as opposed to the 89^th minute or stoppage time via Eriksen.  Great and encouraging development from the Vertonghen/Fazio central defensive team over the last couple of weeks.  I take back what I said about Spurs and their "annual disappointment."   Pochettino’s insistence on conditioning might make them strong at the end of a long match and season.  I'm beginning to think that Spurs have a better chance to get a top 4 league spot for next year’s Champions League.  Kane is long and very athletic and if he can continue to shoot as well, then he may be a serious keeper – until the money comes calling from Real Madrid, Bayern Munich or Barcelona.  Eriksen may be too good to keep as well .  Right now, if I had to choose one of them, I'd lean towards Kane because I think Eriksen is more replaceable (though it took some time to get Eriksen as a somewhat suitable replacement for Modric).

From  Luke P:

I'd like to go into a lot of analysis and delve into matchups and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each club, but I'll just stick with the laser-like focus of "F Spurs."

Well there you have it - you can skip the pregame analysis and sleep an extra 45 minutes on Saturday.

Maybe Aston Villa Should Try Dubai

So Newcastle spend their week off training in Dubai and return to put a 3-0 hurting on Hull City.  The team that couldn't even find the target, let alone the back of the net, got two stunning strikes from Remy Cabella (gif left) and Sammy Ameobi plus another deflection goal from Gouffran.  They were lucky on a number of occasions that Hull didn't put the ball in the net.  And shortly after Cabella had put them in front in the 40th minute, Hull apparently leveled the match in stoppage time; but no, Ahmed Elmohandmady  Elmohamady had clearly directed the ball, a la Maradona, into the goal.  Okay, so it was handball, no big deal - except for his insistence on his innocence which is clearly refuted in this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  Frankly, the Magpies looked worse in most aspects of the game than they did against Southampton two weeks ago.  But the finishing was good and that made all the difference.

Aston Villa's fortunes were not as positive as their scoreless streak continued in a 0-5 loss to Arsenal.  Saw this match and the score is about right.  Not much went right for the Villans.  Dennis adds his comments, assuming we can shake him out of his funk, below.

Does anybody even want to read about this match?  Do I even want to think about it for one more second?  Did I even really watch the whole thing while it was on the TV in front of me?  Will Aston Villa ever score again?  Will the Villans get relegated? The answers: no, not a chance, I read comics for most of the second half, doubtful but we can always pray for an OG, and it sure looks like it.  We wasted months worth of goals (quite literally - we haven't scored since Dec 20th) in our FA cup win, can't put together anything that might resemble a high-school JV offense, and are not in relegation position right now because of a start to the season that looks more fluky [ed question - flukey?] by the second.  I guess our new signings, Gil and Sinclair, looked fine, but at this point, Lambert might just be rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.  A 1-0 victory over Chelsea started our late push last year and it is probably too much to hope for a reprise this season.   


The First Sunday in February

Is kind of like Groundhog Day for referees in Eastern Pennsylvania.  Every year on this date, we emerge from our houses, meet at a hotel in King of Prussia to take the recertification test and if we see an 80% or higher on our exam, there will be 12 more months of refereeing.  The studying paid off and I got a perfect score. To be honest, two years ago, they changed the required score from 70% to 80% but made the exam a lot easier.


David vs Goliath - The Replay

 On Tuesday Cambridge traveled to Old Trafford to face Manchester United in the replay of their fourth round FA Cup match.  Recall that Cambridge, a 4th division side, had held MUN to a scoreless draw a few weeks ago.  I was also set to have the ending of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid to roll here, especially after Cambridge went down 0-2 by the 31st minute.  But they hung in there and the match wasn't really put away until the Wilson netted a third goal for the Red Devils in the 73rd minute.  No massacre here, at least not like, say, Arsenal-Aston Villa.  My basic point still holds though - if David had only fought Goliath to a draw, he would have been smoked in the rematch because he wouldn't have been underestimated by his much bigger opponent the second time around.


The Window Is Closed

A very uninspiring January transfer window.  Hard to see that any moves were game changes.  As expected, Newcastle added no one and sent five players on loan to Rangers in the Scottish league, owner Mike Ashley's other team. 


Derbies and More Derbies

Aside from the aforementioned North London derby, we also have the Merseyside derby with Everton hosting Liverpool at Goodison Park - Saturday at 12:30 on NBC.  Though we won't be watching, I understand that Real Madrid and Atletico square off at 10 am on Saturday as well.

No live streaming for me this week as Newcastle's match versus Stoke City at St. James' Park is on NBCSN at 8:30 on Sunday.  The two sides 10th and 11th respectively, with Stoke ahead by two points.  Every reason to expect a close but likely low scoring duel here.  We note that Papiss Cisse continues to lead the EPL in goals per 90 minutes with 1.3; Frank Lampard is second with 1.1, and Aguero, Costa and Remy are tied for third with 1.0.

Hard to see Aston Villa getting out their rut against Chelsea.  Other top of the table fixtures include Man City hosting Hull (should be easy three for the Citizens), Manchester United at West Ham (tough match for both) and Southampton traveling to face the Harry Redknapp-less QPR.  In the relegation zone, key matches are Burnley-West Brom and Leicester-Crystal Palace.

Reminder - don't forget there are mid-week games next Tuesday and Wednesday.  For key matchups, look no farther than the absolutely critical contest between...Aston Villa and Hull City.  A loss is pretty close to a disaster for either.