Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Back to Work

Enough of being productive around the house.  Break's over and EPL and MLS are back in session.  Not sure why but there appears to be no early game on Saturday.  The NBCSN game at 10 is Chelsea-West Brom; hard to see anything but three points for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  With Chelsea hogging the limelight, several other good 10 am matches are left for ExtraTime.  I'd be interested in seeing how Swansea do at the Etihad but I'll be watching Newcastle hosting QPR.  Off recent form, this really should be three points for the Magpies so in true Toon Army fashion, I'll be holding my breath for a result.  Also of note is Everton vs West Ham at Goodison Park; so far these teams seemed to have switched roles, with the Hammers being the side vying for a spot in Europe.  Important match for both sides.  The 12:30 match on NBC could be good with Arsenal hosting Manchester United, although the injury list for the Red Devils might mean a compromised squad will face the Gunners.

Sunday has Liverpool traveling to London to face Crystal Palace and Spurs going on the road to play Hull.  Also Sunday afternoon are the first legs of the MLS semi-finals.  The Red Bulls will host the New England Revolution at 1:30 on NBC.  The Seattle Sounders travel to LA to face the Galaxy at 5 pm on ESPN.  The second leg of both those series are next weekend.

And in case you don't get enough on the weekend, Aston Villa (probably without Ron Vlaar) get a visit from red hot Southampton on Monday at 3 pm.


International Break - Notable results from the Euro qualifiers

Scotland beat Ireland 1-0 - "low on quality, high on endeavor and adrenalin" per the Guardian - at "breathless" Celtic Park in Glasgow.  England didn't have much trouble dealing with Slovenia in a 3-1 win that featured a solid performance from returning Danny Welbeck.  Belgium could manage only a draw at home versus Wales.  Belgium find themselves sitting in 4th in Group B (wait, look who's atop the group - Israel!) and will need to stop mailing in the performances; I don't mean to take anything away from the spirited effort from Wales but this was a match that Belgium should win.

If the atmosphere was electric for the Scotland-Ireland contest, it was literally incendiary for Italy-Croatia in Milan.  No, I mean it.  The match was stopped after a number of flares were thrown on the pitch.  Not to mention a whole section seemed to be on fire from flares as well.

Rockets red glare indeed.  Decent match.  Ironically, the delay caused by the pyrotechnics, which appeared to be emanating from a Croatian section, came at a time when Croatia looked to be taking over the match.  They weren't quite the same afterwards.  And I shouldn't make light of the incident.  As this article points out, there are serious and ugly issues with Croatian football right now.


Random Statistics

The folks at soccerSTATS.com have compiled a treasure trove of data about the game.  For example, for the last three years, there have been consistently more goals scored in the second half  - between 56-58% of all goals compared to 42-44% in the first half.  Though the second half is typically longer - because there is usually more stoppage time than in the first half - I don't think that would explain all the difference (I agree that seems an unlikely explanation, but if we assume the first half has an average of 1 minute of stoppage time, then 3 minutes added to second half is 4% longer and 4 minutes is 7% longer.).  A second fun thing they did was what the table would look like at half time.  Combining that with the actual table, we can see who has improved their position the most in the second half, or conversely, who wished the matches ended at 45 minutes.  By the way, the change doesn't net to zero because a typical situation is a halftime draw becoming "unequalized," which results in a +2 for the team taking the lead but only a -1 for the team falling behind.



       Total       Points      

      Points      at half     Change
Southampton25 17 8
Newcastle 16 9 7
Chelsea 29 23 6
Arsenal 17 12 5
Man City 21 18 3
West Brom 13 10 3
West Ham 18 16 2
Stoke 15 14 1
Tottenham 14 13 1
Burnley 7 6 1
Liverpool 14 14 0
Sunderland 12 12 0
Swansea 18 19 -1
Man Utd 16 17 -1
Crystal Palace 9 10 -1
Leicester 9 10 -1
Hull 11 13 -2
Aston Villa 11 13 -2
QPR 8 11 -3
Everton 14 19 -5

Newcastle and Arsenal weren't a surprise, nor was Aston Villa.  Haven't followed Southampton that much but the last match I did watch was 0-0 until Shane Long came on late to score two goals - that's one +2 right there.

An addictive site, be careful if you go there.


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