Europa Cup, Here We Come!(?)

Certainly no cakewalk but Newcastle eventually prevailed over a gritty QPR side, 1-0 and moved into fifth place.  The Magpies had no trouble dominating possession but other match stats were pretty even because of QPR's counterattacks.  That's what made this contest more tense than the 2-0 win at West Brom.  In that match, you never felt that WBA was in danger of finding the net so patience until we scored was not a problem.  Not so last Saturday, and even after Sissoko's lovely strike in the 78th minute, at no point did the three points seem in the bag.

If I were doing a Football Manager post game pep talk, my words to the Newcastle side after the win would have been "Don't get complacent."  This run has been great, especially considering the personnel that have been missing due to injury (Coloccini, Tiote, Abeid, S. Taylor, Obertan, de Jong, etc.).  But not all the wins in the streak have been impressive and/or over competition of the highest quality.  And upcoming fixtures include Chelsea, Arsenal, Man United and Everton.  Thrilled with how things are going but need to be realistic about where they're going to end up.

Hey, Where'd Everybody Go?

Regular reader Jeff H was in England not so long ago and sent the following pictures of Newcastle.  Recognize that they were hurriedly shot as the speeding train passed through the Northumberland town.  What I notice is that there are no people in any of shots.  I therefore conclude they were taken during a Newcastle match and everybody was at St. James' Park enjoying the action.

This Is Not My Beautiful Game

Watched both of the first leg matches in the MLS semi-finals.  The distinguishing feature of both contests would have to be the high level of hackery, some of which was called, some not, at least to the level of sanction it might have merited.  There were 29 fouls and 10 yellows in the Red Bulls-Revolution match.  Jermaine Jones' two leg launch with a twist (degree of difficulty 2.8) might be the best example of a yellow card that deserved a red since Nigel De Jong kung fu cleated Alonso's chest in the 2010 World Cup Final.

The Galaxy-Sounders game wasn't much prettier, with 25 fouls and four yellows.  Somehow Seattle's Zach Scott, already on a yellow for a bad foul, racked up four more fouls in the second half yet managed to avoid a second yellow (and the requisite red card) for persistent infringement.  I have mixed feelings about the refereeing here.  Both were certainly calling fouls and were not reluctant to show the first yellow.  But if they aren't going to bring out the second yellow, or even a straight red, the hacking is going to continue.  On the other hand, you have to wonder how much pressure they are under from the league office not to have players suspended for the playoffs.

I suppose there were some quality moments - Bunbury's first half strike was pretty cool - but they seemed few and far between.   Hoping for much better this weekend.  The Red Bulls have their backs against the wall, having surrendered two away goals and the second leg being played on turf (not their best surface, right Chris?); I hear Henry, who never plays on turf, may be out there for his final match.  Seattle, despite losing the first leg 0-1, aren't really in too bad a position.

Around the League

Dennis saw the whole match (which was an open, back and forth thriller right to the very end) but I'm still looking for an explanation as to why Lukaku was not offsides on Everton's first goal in their 2-1 win over West Ham.  Arsenal fairly well dominated Man United but lost anyway in a match between two sides reeling from injuries.  Swansea looked strong against a possibly resurgent Manchester City, but could not hold onto an early lead.  Hull started well against Tottenham but were undone by foolish off-the-ball action by Gaston Ramirez against Vertonghen.  The Tiger 1-0 lead became a 2-1 deficit after his sending off in the 50th minute; frankly this might have been the best example of a red card that deserved a yellow since, well, since two weeks ago when Benteke was sent off against this same Spurs team for a hand shove.  And Selhurst Park continues to be the house of horrors for Liverpool, as they went down 1-3 to Crystal Palace (Doesn't matter where they play, if Liverpool's possessions keep ending with Sterling surrounded by 3 opponents with no outlets, they are going to be in for a world of hurt).

I could feel myself falling under the spell of Newcastle's recent success as part of me was rooting for Hull and Crystal Palace, as if we have a chance to finish ahead of Tottenham and Liverpool.  I should know better; the real issue is staying ahead of the clubs like Hull and Crystal Palace to avoid relegation.  You'd think I'd have learned by now.

I didn't get to see Aston Villa's game until Thursday and boy was that not worth the wait.  They looked horrible again, but managed to steal a point off a far superior Southampton side.  An ugly affair, but not as pitiful as the Leicester-Sunderland match.  With nothing to do this weekend, I actually ended up watching Leicester and Sunderland slog around in the rain while showing an occasional flash of competence.  I don't know what happened to the exciting Leicester team that I wrote about many weeks ago, but they are long gone and have been replaced by a timid, boring squad that suddenly looks happy to just play a few EPL games and get sent back down.  At least the match wasn't a total loss as I managed to see this beauty of a dive:

So Close

If you had offered me a draw before Chester's match at White Hart Lane I gladly would have accepted.  What I didn't count on was a great effort from the back line and keeper Rhys Taylor (real player from Wales - apparently much better in Football Manager than in real life).  We took a 1-0 lead late into stoppage only to surrender the equalizer in the 93rd minute.  Hard to feel too satisfied with that, plus the fans gave me a ton of crap about it.  But we were heavy underdogs so it was really an excellent result that keeps us in 6th place.

Congested Schedule

EPL has one of those weeks where everybody plays on the weekend, then turns around for games on Tuesday and Wednesday.  And there are a bunch of important match-ups.  For example, Aston Villa take on relegation rivals Burnley on Saturday and Crystal Palace on Tuesday; both are on the road but the Villans really need to get at least a draw in each.  Tottenham have a tough double with Everton at home then Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.    Second place Southampton will be tested with a home match against Man City then a trip to the Emirates to face Arsenal; we might have a better understanding of how good the Saints are after Wednesday.  Man United, currently sitting in 4th,  have two home matches against Hull and Stoke so they should be putting up some points.  Newcastle has two winnable road fixtures - West Ham on Saturday, Burnley on Tuesday - so naturally I'm fearing the worst; a draw versus the Hammers wouldn't be too bad but the Burnley match really should be a W.

Don't forget the second legs of MLS semis are Saturday (Red Bulls at New England) and Sunday (Galaxy at Sounders), just in case there isn't enough from the EPL to satisfy your football cravings.

Back to Work

Enough of being productive around the house.  Break's over and EPL and MLS are back in session.  Not sure why but there appears to be no early game on Saturday.  The NBCSN game at 10 is Chelsea-West Brom; hard to see anything but three points for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  With Chelsea hogging the limelight, several other good 10 am matches are left for ExtraTime.  I'd be interested in seeing how Swansea do at the Etihad but I'll be watching Newcastle hosting QPR.  Off recent form, this really should be three points for the Magpies so in true Toon Army fashion, I'll be holding my breath for a result.  Also of note is Everton vs West Ham at Goodison Park; so far these teams seemed to have switched roles, with the Hammers being the side vying for a spot in Europe.  Important match for both sides.  The 12:30 match on NBC could be good with Arsenal hosting Manchester United, although the injury list for the Red Devils might mean a compromised squad will face the Gunners.

Sunday has Liverpool traveling to London to face Crystal Palace and Spurs going on the road to play Hull.  Also Sunday afternoon are the first legs of the MLS semi-finals.  The Red Bulls will host the New England Revolution at 1:30 on NBC.  The Seattle Sounders travel to LA to face the Galaxy at 5 pm on ESPN.  The second leg of both those series are next weekend.

And in case you don't get enough on the weekend, Aston Villa (probably without Ron Vlaar) get a visit from red hot Southampton on Monday at 3 pm.


International Break - Notable results from the Euro qualifiers

Scotland beat Ireland 1-0 - "low on quality, high on endeavor and adrenalin" per the Guardian - at "breathless" Celtic Park in Glasgow.  England didn't have much trouble dealing with Slovenia in a 3-1 win that featured a solid performance from returning Danny Welbeck.  Belgium could manage only a draw at home versus Wales.  Belgium find themselves sitting in 4th in Group B (wait, look who's atop the group - Israel!) and will need to stop mailing in the performances; I don't mean to take anything away from the spirited effort from Wales but this was a match that Belgium should win.

If the atmosphere was electric for the Scotland-Ireland contest, it was literally incendiary for Italy-Croatia in Milan.  No, I mean it.  The match was stopped after a number of flares were thrown on the pitch.  Not to mention a whole section seemed to be on fire from flares as well.

Rockets red glare indeed.  Decent match.  Ironically, the delay caused by the pyrotechnics, which appeared to be emanating from a Croatian section, came at a time when Croatia looked to be taking over the match.  They weren't quite the same afterwards.  And I shouldn't make light of the incident.  As this article points out, there are serious and ugly issues with Croatian football right now.


Random Statistics

The folks at soccerSTATS.com have compiled a treasure trove of data about the game.  For example, for the last three years, there have been consistently more goals scored in the second half  - between 56-58% of all goals compared to 42-44% in the first half.  Though the second half is typically longer - because there is usually more stoppage time than in the first half - I don't think that would explain all the difference (I agree that seems an unlikely explanation, but if we assume the first half has an average of 1 minute of stoppage time, then 3 minutes added to second half is 4% longer and 4 minutes is 7% longer.).  A second fun thing they did was what the table would look like at half time.  Combining that with the actual table, we can see who has improved their position the most in the second half, or conversely, who wished the matches ended at 45 minutes.  By the way, the change doesn't net to zero because a typical situation is a halftime draw becoming "unequalized," which results in a +2 for the team taking the lead but only a -1 for the team falling behind.

	Total	Points
	Points	at half	Change
Southampton	25	17	8
Newcastle	16	9	7
Chelsea	29	23	6
Arsenal	17	12	5
Man City	21	18	3
West Brom	13	10	3
West Ham	18	16	2
Stoke	15	14	1
Tottenham	14	13	1
Burnley	7	6	1
Liverpool	14	14	0
Sunderland	12	12	0
Swansea	18	19	-1
Man Utd	16	17	-1
Crystal Palace	9	10	-1
Leicester	9	10	-1
Hull	11	13	-2
Aston Villa	11	13	-2
QPR	8	11	-3
Everton	14	19	-5

Newcastle and Arsenal weren't a surprise, nor was Aston Villa.  Haven't followed Southampton that much but the last match I did watch was 0-0 until Shane Long came on late to score two goals - that's one +2 right there.

An addictive site, be careful if you go there.

Everybody's a Mid-table Team Now (except Chelsea)

The scoreboard says 2-1 for Chelsea over Liverpool at Anfield but it didn't really feel that close. Meanwhile, Man City (vs QPR) and Everton (vs Sunderland) struggled to get draws on the road.  At least their fate was better than Spurs, who went down 1-2 to Stoke at White Hart Lane or Arsenal, who lost late to Swansea.  Man United eked out a win over Crystal Palace but they are already 13 points back.  Sure it's early but is it really going to be that easy for Chelsea?

The competitions for the Champions League, Europa Cup, and relegation, on the other hand, look like they might be fun.  Southampton, Swansea and West Ham (home draw to Aston Villa notwithstanding) are playing like they want to be in the mix.  At the other end, Burnley got their first win and QPR got an unexpected point against Man City so the bottom of the table is pretty tight.


"Magpies Flying"

Thus spake Peter Drury after Coloccini's textbook header had given Newcastle a 2-0 lead in the 62nd minute at The Hawthorns, home park of West Bromwich Albion.  A fourth straight win, 8th place in the table, a team that, dare I say it, looks to be gelling.  The first 44 minutes, in Drury's words were a victory for "industry over innovation" as the scoreless match dragged on.  To me the Magpies never looked in danger and I was thinking at worst this will be a 0-0 draw.  But in the closing seconds of the first half came a moment of "innovation" from Ayoze Perez, a clever flick of the right foot behind his left leg and into the side netting - this week's YouTubeableMoment.  It's a good sign when the Newcastle blogs are filled with complaints about our hideous green/blue away kits (modeled by Perez above right) rather than rants about the need to sack Alan Pardew.


Did You Notice?

How hard it rained in the second half in South Wales for the Swansea-Arsenal match.

The direct free kick by Gylfi Sigurdsson (Chester Blues!) to level that match.

That literally nothing of note happened in the Aston Villa draw.

That Charlie Austin (QPR) put the ball in the net three times in the first 21 minutes versus Man City but only the third counted.  For the first, he was ruled offsides.  On the ensuing indirect free kick, Joe Hart made complete hash of the attempt which went right to Austin, who deposited it into the net again.  Except that Hart had slipped and touched the ball with his plant foot before the real miskick. A free kick by the defense from inside their penalty area is not in play until kicked directly out of the penalty area.  Hart's first touch failed to clear the penalty area so the kick had to be taken again.  Ironically, the goal that did count for Austin probably should have been called back for offsides.

DC United coach Ben Olsen go appleplatic apopepcid nuts and Fabian Espindola get a yellow card because they thought the AR failed to flag a ball over the touch line and the Red Bulls scored shortly thereafter; a great stop-action blow up showed the ball clearly still on the line [just read that Espindola got a red card after the match for shoving the AR who made the call].  Congrats to the Red Bulls, who now face New England in the conference final.


No League Cup for Chester

We went down 0-2 to Liverpool in a quarterfinal match and it wasn't really that close.  Because of match congestion, I had several first team players out so the loss wasn't unexpected.  I got more crap from the fans for the 1-1 away draw at Sunderland a few days later.  Yeah, Sunderland is in 18th but for some reason this was a tough match up for us.  We got a lucky goal early, surrendered the equalizer at 26 minutes, then held on for dear life (pushed that time wasting slider to the max).  Another tough stretch awaits, with matches against Tottenham, Arsenal, and Liverpool over the next nine days.  Match congestion indeed.



International break

Dennis laments:
Even though the Villa game brought a tiny ray of light and a much needed point, the week was probably a net negative since Vlaar went and got himself injured on international duty [a friendly no less, not even a Euro qualifier].  I was actually watching this game and have no clue what happened.  One minute he was playing, the next he was sitting on the ground holding his calf.  No word on severity yet, but the Villans are already thin in the back and any amount of time off could be a problem.

Some of the qualifiers of interest to this blog include Scotland-Ireland at 2:45 pm Friday, England-Slovenia at noon on Saturday, Belgium-Wales at noon on Sunday, Italy-Croatia also at noon on Sunday and the Czech Republic vs Iceland at 2:45 on Sunday.  Viewing options may be limited depending on your cable package but a bunch will be streamed on ESPN3.

With the break, no EPL or MLS matches this weekend.  Uh-oh, somebody's going to have to rake leaves.

Fear the Magpie?

Or at least respect it. Saturday's 1-0 win over Liverpool gave Newcastle their third victory in seven days, having beaten Tottenham the previous Sunday and Man City on Wednesday.  And, for the first time this year, they looked good for the full 90 minutes.  Their previously sieve-like defense, prone to being regularly sliced up, was virtually airtight.  Though in the past I may have preferred Williamson as one of the center backs, Steven Taylor is slowly winning me over.  Sissoko's work rate continues to be high; Colback's too.  Midfielder Mehdi Abeid impressed in his EPL debut; the 22 year-old Algerian was signed in May of 2011 but has spent most of his time on loan in Scotland and Greece.  Cabella had a second straight strong performance as a sub.  The offense was better though still not great. The Magpie goal came on a Sissoko cross that was, shall we say, not well-handled by Alberto Moreno and Ayoze Perez wasted no time in burying the loose ball in the 73rd minute.  Liverpool's threat in the closing minutes was tepid enough that I did not feel the need to get up from my seat and pace.


So, with three straight league wins and 10 points in the last four matches, the Magpies have soared all the way to 12th in the table.  I think we know Newcastle well enough not to be fooled about contending for a spot in Europe.  We went through this last year.  Forget about Europe, how about we just spend some time as a solid mid-table side?  There is a key difference this time around.  Last year, our leading scorer was a loaner and the heart of the team was expected to leave in the January transfer window.  In other words, we knew the second half of the year was going to be a struggle. Now, the only current squad member we hear might be leaving is Cheick Tiote; that would be a big loss no doubt but not on the same level as Cabaye and should be manageable.  Plus some of the younger players are showing flashes.   Maybe we can just watch this team for a while and see if they're top 10 material.


Derbies

Two real derbies and a MNB spinoff derby over the weekend.  No matter how much Arlo White tried to talk up the Manchester derby in his commentary, the match seemed less than expected.  Sure, it was a close match and quite chippy but lacked something.  A big part of the problem was that Chris Smalling got a yellow for foolishly interfering with Joe Hart while he was punting, then doubled down on the foolishness with a poor challenge on James Milner, leaving Man United down a man for more than half the match.  At least the only goal was quality on a nice cross by Clichy and an even nicer finish by Aguero.


In North West London, Chelsea-QPR was actually compelling and with Charlie Austin's goal the match was tied at 63 minutes.  A rash challenge from Vargas on Eden Hazard resulted in a PK, which was taken by the Belgium star himself and he remained perfect at 17 out of 17 in EPL contests.  (Ironically, he missed on Wednesday in a Champions League.)  The opening goal from Oscar was a stunner, as he used the outside of his foot to curl a shot past keeper Robert Green.  Pretty sure if he uses the inside the ball curls away from the goal so he had to use the outside.  In any case, it's this week's YouTubeableMoment.

West Ham continued their surprising surge with an away draw against Stoke City.  The Potters got an ugly goal from Moses midway through the first half and doubled their advantage on a superb header from Moses early in the 2nd.  But down 2 goals with 35 minutes to play, West Ham came roaring back and scored two - one on a diving header from Valencia and the equalizer on a sweet half volley from Downing.  West Ham certainly never acted like they were out of the match and were rewarded nicely, picking up another point on their way towards relevance. 

The MNB spinoff derby was Aston Villa vs Tottenham (Dennis and Michael B - plus others).  Dennis will provide the details.

Oh boy – I’m not quite sure where to begin.  I guess I’ll save the refereeing until the end and start with the actual match, which was kicked off with the comment that Villa “haven’t found the opposition net in 50 days.”  But this was the antithesis of the past 5 Villa matches as they were energetic, smart, and playing well on both sides of the ball.  Benteke was clearly closer to regaining his form and new regular Sanchez had another strong game controlling the midfield.  He is a huge presence, both literally and figuratively, in the midfield that gives Villa a solid outlet from the back and decent distributor going forward.  His defensive instincts seem very strong, but he needs to get rid of the ball more quickly when it is at his feet.  More than one teammate threw their hands up in disgust as he lost possession when there was an easy pass available.  Weimann capitalized on a strong early start with an unorthodox but impressive sliding goal.  An open and exciting game, which the commentators recognized with this gem of a quote: “Commendable spirit of adventure for both teams so far”, became very one-sided when Benteke was shown the straight red in the 65^th minute (more on that below).  Spurs took their sweet time capitalizing but managed to equalize when Villa’s Agbonlahor played striker’s defense and let Chadli have a free volley off a corner, which he promptly buried.  Still showing some life, Villa almost pulled ahead again when Cissokho barely missed what would have been a highlight reel strike.  Alas, it was not be.  Controversial benchwarmer Harry Kane (ed note: controversial in that he's on the bench, right?) came on for Spurs and scored the winner off a deflected free kick in the 90^th minute.  I’m not sure either team deserved to leave with no points, but the game definitely deserved a winner of higher quality.  Maybe Michael saw it differently, but this felt like a well-earned draw gone awry.

The real story line was Benteke’s sending off in the 65^th minute for essentially “illegal hands to the face” on Spur’s Ryan Mason.  During the game, I was mad but understood the call.  After reflection and watching the replay multiple times – my feelings have shifted more towards this video.  Fighting for a loose ball on the sideline, Benteke, Lamella, and Mason are getting rather physical, but probably nothing worth calling a foul over.  Once the ball is cleared, Mason gets in Benteke’s face (which takes major cajones, cuz Benteke is one scary dude) and gives him, to quote Steve, “Alan Pardew quality head shoves.”  Benteke responds by politely removing Mason’s face from the vicinity of his face…..alright, Benteke basically slap pushes Mason away.  Spurs remain professional footballers throughout the ordeal, meaning they act like Benteke just punched Mason until he was unconscious.  After some referee deliberation, Benteke is shown a straight red and Mason walks away scot free.  To me, this was clearly a case where a stern talking to/yellow cards for both is the right decision.  Benteke obviously makes a mistake and, as the commentators point out, does something the referee is within his right to punish with a red card, but Mason is not innocent in the ordeal.

This wasn’t the most egregious call I’ve ever seen, but the timing could not have been worse for Villa, which is definitely hindering my ability to be objective about it.  We were finally showing some promise, creativity, and all around solid play again after the 5 game slump.  Now our best player, who was actually starting to look like our best player again, is gone for 3 matches.  Not that we were likely to get too much against Southampton and West Ham anyway, but losing him against Burnley really stings.  We also fall all the way to 16^th in the table, a mere point above relegation.  I guess it’s nice to be fired up about the team, which was basically impossible for the past month, and some younger players are really developing nicely, but I could really use some good news soon.  Maybe a point against West Ham?  Is that too much to ask for?  Probably.

Was, then wasn't going to add my two cents on the incident.  Was won out.  I got home late Sunday afternoon after refereeing a series of games, the last being a high level but extremely chippy U14 boys contest.  Though both coaches were complimentary afterwards, I was still less than thrilled with my work in a few places, feeling like I had failed to call several fouls and had blown the whistle for some trivial stuff.  But as I watched Michael Oliver in the MCI-MUN match and Neil Swarbrick in the AVL-TOT contest struggle to keep a wrap on things, I began to feel much better.  Both, but especially Swarbrick, to put it diplomatically, seemed to let a lot go, so the players amped things up.  The Benteke-Mason dust-up?  The rulebook says you're guilty of violent conduct (and are to be sent off) if you use "excessive force" or "brutality" against an opponent when not challenging for the ball.  Hmm...to call Benteke's action excessive force or brutality pretty much requires you do the same for Mason's head shoves.  My conclusion - being a referee is a really hard job.

Standings

Don't look now but the three promoted sides occupy the bottom three spots.  If I read my spreadsheet right, the only time since the EPL went to 20 teams that all three promoted teams were relegated the next year that this has happened was 1998 when Bolton, Crystal Palace and Barnsley went down.  Also don't look now but Southampton sits in second while West Ham and Swansea are pushing for the fourth Champions League spot.  But it's early and history is against them.  How many times since 1995-96 has the top four included two teams that weren't named Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool?  Just once, in 1995-96, when Newcastle was second and Aston Villa fourth.


 MLS Playoffs


The conference semi-finals are two leg, aggregate score affairs and the MLS is using the road goals tie breaker this year.  Thus, the Red Bulls have DC United by the at a serious disadvantage after beating them 2-0 in Harrison.   New England's position is even stronger after thrashing Columbus 4-2 on the road.  I saw the Real Salt Lake - LA Galaxy 0-0 draw and can't remember a single moment of the match.  Dallas and Seattle drew 1-1 in Dallas, which sounds like advantage to Seattle.  The second legs are all this Saturday and Sunday.


Calendar

Aside from MLS we have a full slate for the EPL, starting early Saturday (7:45) with Liverpool-Chelsea at Anfield.  Off recent form, this look's to be Chelsea's match to lose.  The 10 am matches aren't quite as exciting but we do have West Ham hosting  Benteke-less Aston Villa (looks tough for AVL) and Crystal Palace traveling to Old Trafford (looks tough for Palace).  Saturday ends with Manchester City at QPR, which sounds like three points for the visitors.

Sunday morning sees Newcastle facing West Brom. The Baggies record looks remarkably similar to the Magpies; before the season I would have had this down for at least a point but I think it's a tough match and would be quite happy with a point.  The other early Sunday games are Everton playing Sunderland in the Stadium of Light (should be something for Everton but both teams are a bit of a mystery) and Tottenham hosting Stoke; the Potters were in better form earlier so at home Spurs should be able to get something.  The weekend closes with a big "are they for real" test for Swansea as Arsenal comes to Wales.

Things are pretty compact right now - Newcastle could end the weekend anywhere from 6th to 16th.