Scenarios

As late as last Friday we were looking at the possibility that every game this coming Championship Sunday would have had title/Champions League/Europa League/relegation implications. But a string of unexpected, though not totally unforeseeable, results means that only four matches this weekend have much relevance and frankly, the prospect that anything will change is pretty low.  Let's see how we got there, then look at the weekend's scenarios.

Manchester City did everything required of them since we last spoke.  The match at Everton was indeed tough but the Citizens proved their resiliency after falling behind 1-0 on a brilliant strike by Ross Barkley.  Unanswered goals by Aguero (what happened to Howard on that play - looks like he totally overplayed the far post and was left flat-footed when Aguero went near post) , Dzeko and Dzeko again put Man City up and looking like they were cruising.  Lukaku's goal at 65 minutes narrowed the deficit and kept things interesting until the final whistle, which only came after six minutes of stoppage time, mostly due to a bizarre incident with said goal scorer Dzeko.  In the 80th minute he committed a foul, then went down in agony.  Referee Lee Probert was having none of it and at first wouldn't even let medical personnel on the field.  Eventually he walked off under his own power (while being shown the yellow card - for the original foul I think) and walked back onto the field shortly thereafter to a chorus of boos.  A bit risky on the part of Probert but he had a good view of the whole thing and was very likely confident in his assessment that Dzeko was just faking the injury.  You can see the incident for yourself here.

In the second part of their assignment, the Citizens had little trouble disposing of Aston Villa, 4-0, on Wednesday, with "medical miracle" Edin Dzeko adding another two tallies to his season total.  They go into the final weekend in first place with a two point cushion over Liverpool.

Ah Liverpool, poor Liverpool.  Hope you all got to see that match versus Crystal Palace on Monday - destined to be a classic.  Somebody did suggest that the match might be a problem.  Of course, that looked really silly through 78 minutes, what with the Reds cruising with a 3-0 lead.  However, their problem with the goal differential vis a vis Man City meant that Liverpool needed as many goals as possible.  They did not take the foot off the gas and that left them open.  But really, allowing three goals in 10 minutes?  Stunning to see it all fall apart like that.  So instead of heading into the final weekend tied with Man City, Liverpool trails and needs help from West Ham.

And the third title contender?  Chelsea's 0-0 draw at home to Norwich was in many ways more of a shocker than the Liverpool-Crystal Palace result, just not as dramatic.  I'm struggling to remember anything of note from the match.  That might be old age but it might be that the contest was indeed a snoozefest.  The draw, combined with Man City's win on Wednesday over Aston Villa, leaves Chelsea out of the title picture, confirming what Mourinho had been saying all along about the Blues' chances to win the league.


Europa League - you take it, I'm not going to take it, you take it

Tottenham held the door wide open for Manchester United to get the last Europa spot but the Red Devils refused to walk through.  The Spurs were already on the back foot when Kaboul was sent off for DOGSO.  West Ham took advantage for two first half goals and while Tottenham played well, this was a match that they weren't going to win.  But in Manchester, Sunderland became like the 10th team this year to get their first win at Old Trafford in something like 100 years.  Not to take anything away from Sunderland, a side that has been playing extremely good football for a few months now, it's not even a surprise when this happens anymore.


Somebody else can go down, not me

Talk about taking care of business.  Aston Villa got a dream goal in the first minute and basically handled Hull City in a 3-1 victory that all but guaranteed their safety (Norwich's draw with Chelsea the next day made it official).  I don't know who wore the scarf or what food was consumed at what times but whatever Dennis and Mikey did, it worked.  Sunderland added a mid-week win over West Brom to the aforementioned win at Manchester United to guarantee the Black Cats a place in the EPL for next year.  Not so lucky were Cardiff City (0-3 to Newcastle - more on that below) and Fulham (1-4 losers to Stoke); those losses sealed their fates and they will play second division football next year.  Despite two losses, West Brom looks to be safe while Norwich's draw with Chelsea was probably not enough to keep them up.


Newcastle wins but it doesn't help

In the first 15 minutes of their match against Cardiff City, the Magpies easily established that they were the superior side, scoring once and rattling the woodwork twice.  But the scored stayed that way until very late in the second half.  And only a great play by Colochini to clear a shot off the line kept Newcastle in front until Remy and Taylor added insurance goals at 87 and 91 minutes.  Very strange atmosphere at St.James' Park.  As expected the anti-Pardew, anti-Ashley signs were everywhere; Pardew was roundly jeered during each trip to the technical area ("they're not yelling Pardew, they're booing").  The news of a potential fan walkout at 69 minutes (symbolic that 1969 was the last time Newcastle won any hardware) was widespread so as the game progressed, there was more attention to the stands than the game.  There was also a walkout at 60 minutes - what does this say about the team - the fans can't even coordinate a protest walkout.  Not too many left at 60 minutes but maybe 20% did leave at around 69 minutes.  Cardiff City might be a good warning (Bluebird in the coal mine?) for Newcastle.  If you don't address your personnel needs, you won't be in the EPL for long.







The Scenarios

For the EPL title:

Man City wins with 1) a win over West Ham or 2) a Liverpool loss or draw vs Newcastle regardless of how they do vs West Ham or 3) a draw with West Ham as long as Liverpool doesn't beat Newcastle by 12 or more goals.  Liverpool wins with 1) a win over Newcastle coupled with a Man City loss or 2) a win by 12 or more goals over Newcastle and a Man City draw.  Realistically, as bad as Newcastle can be at times, it seems to me the only road for Liverpool is to win at Newcastle and hope for West Ham to upset Man City at the Etihad.  Not likely but this season has been strange.

For the Europa spot:

Tottenham is in with a win or draw over Aston Villa.  Man United can take it with a win over Southampton on the road (no small feat) combined with a Tottenham loss.

For relegation:

Technically, Norwich could avoid relegation with a win over Arsenal combined with a West Brom loss against Stoke, but only if the change in goal differential is greater than 17.  So all Norwich has to do is beat Arsenal 9-0 and hope that Stoke does the same to West Brom.  Right, no problem.

Like I said at the top, small potatoes drama-wise given where we could have been.  But, just the same, you probably should watch just to make sure you don't miss something wild.  Viewing multiple matches will be tricky since all games start at 10 am on Sunday.  NBC will be drawing on all network affiliates (oxygen? esquire?) to pull this off.  The FA schedules the last day this way so that teams, at least in theory, have to put in an honest effort.  My viewing problems this Sunday have nothing to do with the simultaneous starts and everything to do with the fact that I'll be driving from Paris to Lyon at match time.  I realize that there will be no sympathy for my dilemma.


La Liga

Sounds like all kinds of fun there.  I understand the top three all stumbled to varying degrees last week and the race is a bit more muddled than before.  Perhaps Miguel or Roberto can enlighten us in the comments section.


MLS

Somebody has got to explain to the Union that all MLS matches consist of two halves and those halves are 45 minutes long.  Maybe Jason Sudeikis could help them. They gave up points again from a winning position in 2-1 loss to Seattle.  After taking a 1-0 lead into half time - totally deserved IMHO and in part due to another MacMath PK stop - the Union allowed two second half goals, including the game winner in the 84th minute.  They find themselves in 8th place and really need to get a win as the host DC United this Sunday.

The Red Bulls took advantage of an early red card to snatch all three points on the road against Dallas.  They sit in 4th based on MLS tie breaking rules but are actually tied for first in points and they host winless Chicago this weekend.


Football Manager

Back refreshed from cyber vacation, my first task was to review coaching and scouting staff positions to see who would be offered contracts and where we needed help.  Pleasantly surprised that we are in reasonably good shape and only some minor adjustments will be necessary.  Next up will be scheduling the preseason friendlies.  I am concerned that the seeds of future financial distress have been sown with the board's decision to build a new $40 million stadium.  I appreciate the need to increase capacity and our old pitch was awful but I just hope the debt service on the new park doesn't become the reason I can't get a decent salary or transfer budget.


What will we do with these free Saturday and Sunday mornings for the next few months?