Morbidly Invigorating

No, not the arrest of FIFA officials.  I'm referring to Relegation Sunday.  I was watching Newcastle-West Ham on TV and Hull City- Manchester City United on the computer.  Hull had seen two goals disallowed (correctly) for offside and were all over MUN.  Newcastle were playing well enough but not really threatening to score.  With both matches 0-0 at halftime, Newcastle were still up but really hanging by a thread.

Things started to look up when in the 54th minute Jonas Gutierrez provided a perfect cross that Sissoko properly buried with a leaping header.  This was a wholly unexpected route to staying up - win our match and to hell with whatever result Hull could manage.  Except there was still a long way to go.  And sure enough, MUN, already struggling against Hull will play the final 15 minutes or so down a man thanks to Fellaini's straight red card (wait, did he put a boot to defender's balls and knee him in the head in one continuous motion?); surely the Tigers will score now.  Two minutes later, Newcastle make hash of a three-on-one that would put the whole thing to bed.  And the sinking feeling is back.

Then Gutierrez launches a low shot from outside of the box that is slightly deflected and beats Adrian far side.  Events at Hull matter no more (though it did end 0-0).  Newcastle are staying up.  Fitting that both goals involved Gutierrez, one of the few Magpies whose character and desire was not questioned in the trying last few months.  Hell, he didn't even finish chemotherapy for cancer until October.  As one commentator put it- the man knows more about survival than most.

Jonas Gutierrez thumps home Newcastle’s second. Photograph: Lee Smith/Reuters


We are not fooled by the good feeling that came with avoiding relegation.   This team still heads into next season as a leading candidate for the Championship Division unless there is a major overhaul. Mike Ashley has promised the club will spend in this summer's transfer window. We'll see.


Pardew Review

While I completely agree that Newcastle's problems did not begin with Pardew's exit, they accelerated out of control upon his departure.  Can there be a starker contrast in the before and after performance of both sides he managed?  In 19 Newcastle matches with Pardew in charge, the Magpies got 26 points; in the 19 matches after he left, they got just 13.  The trend at Crystal Palace is the same; before Pardew got there, the Eagles got 17 points from 20 games but earned 31 points in the 18 games after his arrival.  Small sample?  Injuries?  Bad luck? Mitigating circumstances?  Blah, blah, blah.  Fact is, in the 37 matches he managed, Pardew's teams generated 57 points, good enough for 8th in the tables.  And the flip side, the teams without him managed just 30 points (in 39 matches), which would be bottom of the table.


Heard Before Sunday's Matches

Steve: Damn, I really hate the Newcastle fans
Dennis: But you're a Newcastle fan
Steve: Damn, I hate myself


Is the Glass Ceiling Still in Place?

Yep.  Recall that in September we wrote that the history of the EPL shows that unless your name starts with Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, or Manchester City, you start the season pretty much competing for 5th place and lower.  Despite early forays into the top four by Aston Villa, West Ham and Southampton, the top four once again came from the five Axis of Evil sides (CHE, MCI, ARS, and MUN).  By the numbers, this was the 20th season of the EPL in its current 20-team format.  Of the 80 top four spots available in those years, 69 (86.25%) have gone to just those five teams.

Liverpool and Southampton came up just a touch short in their final matches and will settle for 6th and 7th behind Tottenham, who handled Everton 1-0.  Southampton will now wait for the FA Cup results to see if they will play in the Europa League this summer.



Aston Villa Looking Ahead

No need to discuss Sunday's finale, a 0-1 loss to Burnley. (While explaining this blog to someone, I accidentally said that my team did not play last weekend.  I even watched the match and still kind of forgot that it happened.)  Rather, let's focus on this Saturday's FA Cup Final.  Thoughts on the contest with Arsenal?

I can see the score ranging from 2-0 Villa to 4-0 Arsenal and anywhere in between.  Does the Villa team that beat Tottenham and Liverpool in back to back games play the Arsenal team that couldn't beat Sunderland?  Or does the Villa team that lost 6-1 to Southampton play the Arsenal team that crushed Hull and West Brom?  I have to assume the sleepwalk against Burnley was the consequence of a meaningless match and at the very least this cup final will be entertaining and competitive for a little while.  Which is really all I am asking for - a decent game in which Villa aren't embarrassed.  

That bar seems low, but it really stems from not knowing what to hope for from the match.  Whatever outcome leaves the team most intact as it stands now and keeps us in the EPL is what I want. Can anyone tell me which result gets me that?  Because I have no idea. Losing might shake some confidence and cause players to leave.  Winning forces us to play in Europe, which a 17th place team surely can't handle.  Given that I don't like the implications for Aston Villa with either outcome, I have decided just to watch and then try and sort out the consequences. 


So Aston Villa and Newcastle are essentially in the same place right now, though I'd give the Villans a slight advantage heading into next season.  Both will need to make significant moves in the summer transfer window.  We'll watch with interest to see how each club handles the challenge.


Somebody's Messing With Me

Went into the Union match away at Red Bulls with about the same level of expectations for a result - i.e. none.  Missing Edu (suspension) and Aristeguieta (international duty) did nothing to enhance the prospects.  But there they were, playing well to a 0-0 draw in the first half, getting a break or two on Red Bull shots that hit the post.  Surely quality will out and the second half won't be as good.  Then some nice work by Wenger got the ball into Noguiera that he cooly redirected past Robles.  Later, Fabinho made a long run down the left side and put the ball right where C.J. Sapong could easily tap it in.  Things got a little sloppy towards the end but the scored stayed 2-0.  Two big wins in a row against two of the better sides in the Eastern Conference.

What to think about this team right now?  No one gives himself up more to score goals than Conor Casey but the Union look like a much more dangerous team with C.J. Sapong; that was clearly evident on Sunday after he subbed in for Casey.  We haven't seen much of Sapong between the head injury on opening day and the DUI; hopefully he's ready for some significant minutes.  Richie Marquez also has done well at center back. Color me skeptical that this team is really ready to compete but I have enjoyed watching them play recently.


Shout Out to Sevilla

The Europa League final between Sevilla and Dnipro was a spirited, back and forth contest.  Sevilla got the last forth and took the championship for the second consecutive year and the fourth time in 10 years.  Somewhere in France, Bob K toasted to the 3-2 victory and then ate some duck. Or goose.  Or duck and goose.


Lighter Schedule, Lighter Blogging

We have the FA Cup Final this Saturday.  Women's World Cup starts June 6th.  Champions League Final (Barcelona and Juventus) is also on June 6th.  Of course MLS action continues.

But we will probably give ourselves a break with fewer posts over the next couple of months.  I proudly note that since we started posting in January 2014, I think we only had one week without an entry and during the World Cup we often had multiple posts in a week.

Sigh, weekend breakfasts just won't be the same for a few months.

Can You Smell the Relegation Flop Sweat?

I can.  After doing just enough to take a 1-0 lead against QPR in the first half, Newcastle sleepwalked through the second half, surrendered two goals and never mounted a serious threat again.  The 2-1 loss leaves them in 17th, two points ahead of Hull with one game to go.  The ultimate ignominy?  Being taunted by QPR fans with "You're going down with the Rangers."

Each of the QPR goals elicited a healthy expletive from me, to which Laura commented that she hadn't heard me react quite so sharply to negative events.  (Having watched this game as well, I was also almost swearing at Newcastle.  This was an especially painful loss even for us semi-neutrals.) Part of it was the cumulative mistakes that lead to the tallies, part of it was two plus months of watching this team slide into the abyss and part of it was the growing realization that I might not be able to follow this team next year. Okay, that last point might be the silver lining. Maybe some time watching EPL as a neutral could be a good thing.

If Newcastle do survive this year, it will likely be just a one year reprieve.  Just because there are three teams below you doesn't mean you belong in the EPL.  This is a truly awful team that would have easily been relegation fodder if not for a five game win streak in the fall.  Unlike some, I don't think relegation is likely to lead to improvement in the long run; they were relegated in 2009 and nothing changed.  The ugly scenarios will be disgust discussed below.



Sometimes a 6-1 Loss Is Enough

As Dennis may or may not describe in detail, Aston Villa were absolutely hammered by Southampton but it didn't matter a few hours later when Hull lost to Tottenham.  The Villans are safe for another season in the EPL.

I didn't even make it through the whole match, bailing at 72 minutes, so that would be a no on the play-by-play.  Given that travelling fans were leaving the stadium at 4-0 in the 26th minutes, I felt perfectly justified.  At least the Villans were a part of history, as Southampton's Mane netted the fastest hat trick in EPL history in two different ways - shortest time between goals (2 minutes, 56 seconds), and shortest time into the game (16 minutes).  It was quite clear that we were not getting anything from this game and that my hopes rested on Hull anyway, so why subject myself to another 20 minutes of misery? [Because that's what we do?]

Spurs win over Hull was much more satisfying.  Hull actually looked decent but once Spurs got the first goal it felt fairly over and the second goal secured Villa's place in the next EPL season.  I would say that I am looking forward to next season, but I will wait for the summer transfer window before I make any decisions.  And that summer transfer window looks like it might largely be determined by the result in the FA Cup final because players apparently care about playing in Europe even if it's in the lesser league.  If our key players - mainly Delph, Benteke, Vlaar - all return, I feel a solid mid table finish could be in the cards.  Right now, I get to relax, enjoy safety, and look forward to a cup final.  Not in a million years would I have guessed that our final weekend match against Burnley would have zero implications, but I am not complaining.


Places Decided

In addition to Aston Villa, a few other sides saw their futures resolved.   Leicester's 0-0 draw with Sunderland means the Foxes will stay up this year (which Dennis kinda, sorta predicted would happen much earlier this season).  Similarly, Sunderland's 0-0 draw with Arsenal on Wednesday put the Black Cats safely out of the reach of relegation.  Swansea's 2-4 loss to Man City ended their hopes for Europe next season, while the wins by Tottenham and Southampton coupled with Liverpool's loss to Crystal Palace means that places 5-7 are still up in the air.

The 0-0 draw at Old Trafford briefly kept Manchester United's hope for third place alive but with Arsenal's draw on Wednesday and their worse goal differential, it will take a miracle on Sunday for the Red Devils to finish ahead of the Gunners.  Some are making fun of him but MUN defender Phil Jones went to extraordinary lengths to prevent Giroud from having a goal scoring attempt.  Sure he probably wasn't using his head (well technically he was but maybe it wasn't too smart) but maybe if more Newcastle players showed this kind of commitment, they wouldn't be in the mess they're in.


Better on This Side of the Pond

Chester-on-Delaware was a happier place this weekend.  Sure, DC United was injury-ridden and played the last few minutes a man down (injury with no subs left), but the 1-0 win was still appreciated.  And frankly, the Union had outplayed them for most of the match so it wasn't wholly undeserved.  They've been exhibiting a few too many similarities to Newcastle recently, from bizarre management decisions to truly awful on-field performances.  But, at least the players appear to be trying hard.


Scenarios

Newcastle survive with a win over West Ham regardless of what Hull does and Hull goes down with anything less than a win over Manchester United.  I had hoped that Man United might have a shot at third to motivate them a bit but that's not the case anymore.  A Hull win coupled with a Newcastle loss or draw will send the Magpies down to the Championship division.

Europa League qualifying situation is complicated by 1) the fact that we don't know whether just 5th and 6th  make it (if Aston Villa win FA Cup) or 7th is in too (if Arsenal win the FA Cup) and 2) just two points separate Liverpool (62), Tottenham (61) and Southampton (60).  So basically any of the three could finish in any of the 5th through 7th spots.  All have road matches but the odds would seem to favor Liverpool (at Stoke) and Tottenham (at Everton) over Southampton (at Man City).

All 10 matches are at 10 am Sunday on one of NBC's vast network of stations.  Schedule is below:

10:00 a.m., NBC and Telemundo: Hull City vs. Manchester United
10:00 a.m., NBCSN and NBC Universo: Chelsea vs. Sunderland
10:00 a.m., USA Network: Newcastle United vs. West Ham United
10:00 a.m., CNBC: Everton vs. Tottenham Hotspur
10:00 a.m., MSNBC: Manchester City vs. Southampton
10:00 a.m., Syfy: Stoke City vs. Liverpool
10:00 a.m., Bravo: Arsenal vs. West Bromwich Albion
10:00 a.m., E!: Crystal Palace vs. Swansea City
10:00 a.m., Esquire: Aston Villa vs. Burnley
10:00 a.m., Oxygen: Leicester City vs. Queens Park Rangers

The Union will take their one game winning streak up the NJ Turnpike to face the Red Bulls on Sunday.  Yikes, that could be a tough one.

Forgot to mention last week's CL 1-1 semi-final second leg between Juventus and Real Madrid, which meant that JUV won the aggregate 3-2.  Ronaldo's PK had given Real a 1-0 lead at 23 minutes, which would have been enough for them to advance but Morata leveled things at 57 minutes.  Great viewing for the neutral (actually I was pulling for Juventus so as to avoid a La Liga final for the second straight year and because they have the cool Newcastle black and white stripe jersey). That sets up the CL final between Juventus and Barcelona on Saturday June 6th.

Relegation Sunday beckons...

First Point of Spring

Newcastle was home against a relatively weak side, so it's not like the 1-1 draw with West Brom is anything to write home about, except it was the Magpies first point since February 28th.  And though they played better than the previous week (low bar), this still ended up being a nailbiter.  The positive was that they fell behind - I can't watch set pieces in Newcastle's end anymore - but rallied before halftime to draw even.  At one point, before they scored, the Magpies were actually sitting in the 18th place. 

Thanks for Nothing

The top table teams have not been very helpful the last few weeks, conceding points to Newcastle's relegation opponents.  The most egregious offenders have been Southampton and Everton (technically not a top table team...didn't they get to 10th before they started tanking?), who have gifted six points each in the last two weekends to the likes of Sunderland, Leicester and Aston Villa.  Not that Dennis is complaining.  As he describes below, Saturday's 1-0 win over another upper table side - West Ham - has his Villans sitting pretty.

And looking forward to playing the aforementioned slumping Southampton next week.  Not a ton to say about this week's performance that hasn't been said in the past several weeks - Grealish continues to impress, Benteke continues to regain his pre-injury form, and I continue to wonder how a team that can play like this is only just now managing to stay out of the relegation zone.  Not that I am counting my chickens before they hatch, as I am all too aware that Villa are not technically safe yet.  Any win or any Hull loss is the easiest route, but there are plenty of other scenarios that guarantee our safety.  Not out of the woods yet, but feeling pretty good.  All I need now is to get Sherwood to stop making ridiculous substitutions.  He was at it again this week - with a 1-0 lead in the 92nd minute, he replaced Grealish with Sanchez.  He took off the one player on the field most likely to either draw a foul or waste time at the corner flag with the player most likely to give the ball away cheaply.  Come on.  


Still to Play For

Two relegation spots were sewn up this weekend as QPR lost to Man City and Burnley, despite beating Hull, were eliminated by results elsewhere.  West Brom's point against Newcastle has left them safe.  The last spot is still very much in play, with just four points separating 14th from 18th.  But Aston Villa can make themselves safe with a win at Southampton, and Newcastle (at QPR) and one of Leicester or Sunderland (face each other in the Stadium of Light) will also be safe with a win combined with a Hull loss at White Hart Lane.

Gotta say I am rooting for Leicester to stay up.  You might recall several months ago when I espoused the virtues of this Leicester side and wished my team could play a little more like them.  I always find them exciting to watch and they don't seem to know when to throw in the towel. Definitely hoping I get to see them in action next season, but asking for all of Villa, Newcastle, and Leicester to make it seems greedy.

I've been a bit cavalier about places at the top.  Though the top four make the Champions League, the fourth place side has to go through some annoying qualifying rounds in July/August; thus the race for second and third (Chelsea has clinched first) are quite relevant.  And it happens that third place Arsenal (70 points) face fourth place Man United (68 points) at Old Trafford.  This is good news for second place Man City, who know that one or both of their pursuers will drop points.

And Tottenham and Southampton have fallen down so badly in their quest for Europa League spots that Swansea is now in the mix, with just two points separating the three.  Recall that we won't know whether 5th through 7th or just 5th and 6th will qualify because the FA Cup Final, in which Aston Villa could nab a spot by winning, isn't until after the EPL season ends.  Dennis and I would be fine with a Spurs win and Southampton loss this weekend as it would serve our relegation needs quite nicely.


Goal Line Technology

Most of the time it seems like the goal line technology has merely confirmed calls made on the field.  Such was not the case on Monday, when play would have continued if not for the beeping on referee Kevin Friend's watch.  The first picture makes it look like maybe the AR missed something...



Friend's reaction to the Arsenal complaints about the decision was excellent as well.  He simply looked at his watch, pointed at it, and shrugged his shoulders, silently saying "What do you want me to do?  The watch says it was a goal!" Here it is as this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Old Business

Had this in my notes for last week's post but forget to include it.  Two weekends ago there was a kind of trifecta that probably would have won a boatload of cash had someone played it.  Eden Hazard, Steven Gerrard, and Robbie Van Persie all missed PKs that weekend.  Hazard promptly headed the rebound in so that worked out for him.  Liverpool eventually got the winning goal in the run of play so that wasn't a disaster.  But Man United couldn't score and eventually fell to West Brom 0-1; given that they sit two points behind Arsenal for third, that wasn't too cool.


Mighty Lame Soccer

That's what MLS stands for in Philly right now.  Goalkeeping silliness continued as Mbohli didn't even make the trip to Vancouver and the Union acquired another keeper without MLS experience and chose to take someone from the MLS goalkeeping pool (who knew that this even existed?) rather than bring the beleaguered Algerian international.  However, this sideshow is merely symptomatic of larger issues.   Some questionable calls (possible offside on the first, definite push in the back on the second) left Bryan Sylvestre totally exposed in goal but the real problem is that the squad can't generate enough offensive chances and doesn't convert the precious few that it gets.  Already down 0-2, any chance of improvement ended when Richie Marquez (a recent bright spot) was shown a straight red for a challenge that probably didn't deserve that sanction.  Loved hearing the field microphones pick up manager Jim Curtin saying "That might not even be a foul [wishful thinking on his part] and "That's not a ****ing red card [probably accurate]."  But it was called and the Union conceded another to make the final 3-0 for White Caps.

Didn't see the first ever derby between the Red Bulls and NYCFC, which ended as a victory for the New Jersey side of this nascent "New York" rivalry.  Chris K, if he's not signing up to be in the MLS goal keeper pool, may have comments for us.


Learning Through Playing

You may recall how, through playing Football Manager, I learned of the Home Grown Player rule which requires at least 8 of the 25 rostered players to have trained in England.  With Chester's recent qualification to the Europa League, I just became aware of the second part of this rule - of those 8 players, at least 4 must have trained with your club for at least three years between the ages of 15 and 21.  Well that might not be a problem for your Manchester Uniteds, your Chelseas, your Arsenals.  But it is for Chester, which, shall we say, doesn't have the greatest youth intake system.  Right now I have two players that meet the definition and they are nowhere near good enough to see any playing time; two more will meet the requirement in a few weeks but they are also not of sufficient quality to actually play.  This problem will go away in two or three years as some of the younger players I've signed start to qualify as club trained but in the short run, it looks like we'll have to go with 21 registered players.


Plenty to Watch Live

By my count 7 of the 10 EPL matches this week matter for something other than pride or prize money and you can see plenty without having to stream online.  Saturday at 7:45, NBCSN has Aston Villa at Southampton; the 10 am match is Sunderland-Leicester, and Liverpool-Crystal Palace at Anfield is the 12:30 contest.  Sunday morning has Man City traveling to Wales to meet Swansea and the 11 am match is Man United-Arsenal at Old Trafford.  I will have to stream Newcastle's match with QPR.

Union are in action Sunday at home facing DC United.

Hoping to report to you next week that Newcastle and Aston Villa are safe.

Shambolic

 

Also "gutless." "Pathetic." "Unorganized." "Shameful."  Lee Ryder of The Chronicle forgot to include "undisciplined" in his account of Newcastle's disturbing 0-3 loss to Leicester.  Two easy goals on set pieces and a silly foul in the box were more than enough for the Foxes as Newcastle generated very little offense.  It was such an awful performance I almost felt like I needed to hide my Newcastle paraphernalia and maybe take shower. Combined with Sunderland's win over Southampton, Newcastle now sit just two points about the relegation zone. 

This sad state of affairs was not inevitable but it was foreseeable.  Let us take a quick look at the responsible parties.

1. Mike Ashley - The strategy of spending just enough to stay up is always risky but two major miscalculations this past January made the threat all too real.  First, he decided that Newcastle had accumulated enough points that there was no need to address two obvious deficiencies (the back line and striker) in the squad.  Injuries and, ahem, player indiscretions on the field have forced Newcastle to field a makeshift line up for nearly every match since January.  Second, he believed that Newcastle could survive with a "caretaker" manager until the end of the season.  I think we've seen enough at this point to realize John Carver is not up to the task.

2. The aforementioned John Carver - Yes he 's had to deal with injuries and suspensions but he doesn't seem to be able to adjust at all in matches.  The players are unmotivated.  And his views about Williamson and Janmaat possibly taking red cards to get out of playing - whether accurate or not - should not be aired in public but should be between the manager and the players.

3. The aforementioned players - You can't fault players for not being talented enough to do what they are asked.  You can fault them for lack of effort.  But what's most disappointing is the breakdown of discipline.  Cisse's spitting. Sissoko, Williamson and Janmaat getting suspended for two yellows in a match.  No wonder the fans are up in arms.

4. The aforementioned fans - Pardew's realization that Ashley wasn't going to spend in the January transfer window was obviously a factor in his departure to Crystal Palace, but the fans actively sought his ouster and made it clear he would never be accepted by the Geordies.  Oh, and do you know of any other club where opposing managers try to use the home fans against their own side?  As in, "we hope to score early and get the Newcastle fans to turn on the team."

I don't think Pardew is a genius but I do believe he would have guided Newcastle to safety by this point; his ability to adjust had made Newcastle the best second half team when he left. 

So now we will sweat it out.


Three Points from Heaven

Watching Aston Villa's match might have been the perfect antidote to the Newcastle debacle but I chose Liverpool-QPR instead.  But Dennis will be more than happy to describe the joy of watching your side come through in unexpected ways.

Benteke has been doing a lot of this lately.

Now this is the team that I have become accustomed to under Sherwood (except for the benching of Brad Guzan for his questionable decisions from last week).  Villa came out firing on all cylinders and looked threatening early and often - Benteke netted yet another header after just 10 minutes and doubled the lead right before half time.  Villa could have had 2 or 3 others in the half and the score line would not have been unwarranted.  Vlaar gave Everton a path back in game, conceding a penalty with a desperate challenge after several Villa miscues.  He has done this more than once this season but I think that just comes with the territory of being a center back.  Only 5 minutes later, Bacuna shredded the Everton back line with a single pass and Tom Cleverly (of all people!) ripped a shot past Howard to restore the two goal cushion.  


Villa just can't make things easy on themselves and conceded in the 92nd minute.  I think I need a homer check on this play.  I tend to think that fouls are called on keepers much too easily and don't think they need to be protected quite as much as they are.  In this instance, it really appeared as though one of Given's arms was being held to his side by Seamus Coleman, not allowing him to make what should have been an easy catch.  After the play. Coleman clearly walks away sheepishly because he know he got away with one.  The goal ended up not mattering (for now - keep an eye on goal differential in the relegation battle), but it was incredibly frustrating given what generally passes for a foul on a keeper.  Help me out - was that a foul or am I just mad because the call went against my team? [Doesn't look awful from this video but I found another view looking down the goal line in which it looks like Coleman did interfere with Givens.]

This win puts Villa firmly in the driver's seat to avoid relegation, with 6 teams in their rear view mirror.  It's hard to believe they are one of the three worst teams in the league and equally hard to believe they won't get any more points this season.  It could certainly happen, but even I am feeling positive about their current position.


Chelsea Clinches

The view at the top is mostly boring at this point.  Chelsea clinched the title with a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace.  Tottenham (0-1 to Man City) and Southampton (1-2 to Sunderland) effectively ended their chances for the last Champions League spot.  Liverpool, with a 1-0 win over QPR edged to within four points of slumping Man United, which lost 0-1 to West Brom; with three matches left, and given the Red Devils recent form, that last spot may still be in play.

No, the bottom part of the table is where all the "fun" is.  Off their weekend losses, QPR and especially Burnley, at 27 and 26 points respectively, are pretty much toast; losses this weekend would sew up relegation for both (even a draw would end things for Burnley).  But from there, things get quite interesting.
The scenarios are numerous but I'll highlight three to give a flavor for how wide open this is.

1.West Brom gets relegated with 40 points - highly unlikely given the string of upsets that would be required but I missed this possibility last week (West Brom, QPR and Burnley would be out)
2. Newcastle and Aston Villa both do not get another point but do not get relegated - not as crazy as it sounds but Burnley has to beat Hull City this weekend or this possibility vanishes (Burnley, QPR and one of Leicester/Sunderland/Hull would be out)
3.  Newcastle and Aston Villa both get relegated - also not as crazy as it sounds but if both QPR and Burnley don't win this weekend, that scenario is gone too.


Union Toronto In Person

In contrast to Newcastle, at least this was a contest.  Not to say the Union prevailed but they played pretty much even with Toronto, surrendering the only goal on a free kick that maybe McCarthy should have gotten to.  But Maidana hit the post late in the first half and Aristiguieta scored an Aston Villa goal (in the net but called back for offside).  The PPL faithful went nuts on the offside call but I thought Aristiguieta had broken too quickly and even as I rose to celebrate I was looking to the AR for confirmation of what I feared.  Didn't see a replay but others who did say he was indeed offside.  Despite the 0-1 loss, this was a decent way to spend a warm Saturday afternoon.

But like my favorite English side, there's a bit of a soap opera atmosphere hovering in the Chester air.  Recall our riches to rags situation at keeper in which, despite the dubious accomplishment of having three No. 1 keepers, injuries, loans and overall suckiness reduced us to none and we signed a USL player - McCarthy.  Well now he's hurt (concussion in practice) and the injured keeper - Blake - was back in training and possibly ready for action except he's hurt again (tore the other meniscus, also in practice on Tuesday, minutes before McCarthy got hurt).  Fortunately, Mbohli had already returned from exile in France, so maybe he's back, except coach Jim Curtin's statements to the press don't inspire confidence that he's ready to play.  Dave Zeitlin at mlssoccer.com noted that "When asked what he’s looking for in a backup or potential starter, Curtin joked: “Any goalkeeper in the good ol’ U.S. of A right now.”"  Meanwhile, there is a match vs Vancouver on Saturday and, by rule, they must have a keeper on the field.  Hey Chris K, how soon can you be here?


Cyber Raise!

The board of Chester, in its infinite wisdom, has offered me a raise from $2,600 per week to $20,000 per week.  Woo-woo, I'm a cyber millionaire!  Seems fair enough for managing the 6th best team in all of English football.  Even better news, they have set our transfer budget at $38 million.  As I write, scouts are furiously compiling reports and assessing which players we will pursue in the summer transfer window.

Courtesy of Michael B, this link discusses whether addiction to Football Manager is a medical problem.  Excerpt:

Dr Is it a problem? Or is it just something you enjoy? Is it negatively impacting anything in your life?
Me Well, sometimes my wife gets offended if she’s watching a Jennifer Aniston movie and I play it on my laptop on the sofa next to her.
Dr Well, you’ve got a problem.
Me I have?
Dr Yes, Jennifer Aniston movies are almost exclusively awful.
Me It’s not just me, is it?
Dr Nope.



Nerve-wracking Weekends Ahead

Hey Everton!  Wake up and take care of Sunderland at Goodison Park this Saturday.  Thank you.  Ditto for you Southampton in your travels to Leicester City and Manchester City as you host QPR.  Hull City vs Burnley is not so obvious, but I'm going to hope for a Burnley win because that would keep Hull below Newcastle, regardless of what the Magpies do on Saturday against West Brom.  Ooh, NBCSN has made that the 10 am match for Saturday; parental advisory for that telecast from St. James Park.   Aston Villa is already ahead of us and it's Dennis's team so we'll be pulling for them against West Ham.

Back in August, the Chelsea-Liverpool might have been projected as a critical contest in the title chase but now it only matters to Liverpool in their quest for the Champions League.  Man United faces a Crystal Palace side that has fallen off in the last few weeks, which may be a good thing for their Champions League aspirations.  Tottenham, playing like a side trying to avoid the Europa League travels to Stoke.  And Arsenal hosts Swansea in a match, that as far as we can tell, is of little consequence except possibly the amount of prize money each will receive at year end.

Also, second legs of Champions League semis.  Juventus up 2-1 on Real Madrid heading to Spain and Barcelona up 3-0 on Bayern Munich heading to Germany.

That sound you hear is the gnashing of teeth...
 

Pining for Mid-table Mediocrity

Despite Newcastle’s dreadful run, I hadn’t been all that concerned about relegation until this weekend.  The oblivion of mid-table would be quite comforting now.

Saturday’s match versus Swansea started out well enough,with Ayoze Perez netting his first goal in ages in the 20th minute.  The best part was that it wasn’t against the run of play.  But the euphoria didn’t even last until halftime.  As he did all season for my Chester Blues, Gylfi Sigurdsson lofted a perfect corner that was converted by Nelson Oliveira for the equalizer in first half stoppage time. Sigurdsson (left) continued to torment me with an early second half goal. Jack Cork’s goal at 71 minutes seemed to put things out of reach.  The Magpies were at least able to make the finish interesting when Siem de Jong (this summer’s marquee acquisition who has missed most of the season with a thigh injury then a collapsed lung) scored in the 88^th minute but in the end, it was a 2-3 loss.  

With the results at the bottom of the table this weekend, the threat of relegation is a little too real at this point.  The Toon Army was well aware of this and staged a sort of protest during the 34th minute (chosen based on the 34 million supposedly unspent in the Newcastle coffers), showing owner Mike Ashley the red card.  Sissoko and maybe Dummett are back this weekend, and Cisse returns the following weekend so maybe things won't end too badly.  And, the run-in fixtures are Leicester, West Bromwich, QPR and West Ham; if there’s not a point or three in those, Newcastle deserve to be relegated. 

Drama at the Bottom of the Table

The Burnley-Leicester match was a bit of a bust, but Leicester and their fans probably don’t give a sh hoot because the 1-0 win took them clear of the bottom three.  For Burnley, the season may have turned on a 60 second span in which they missed a PK, then allowed a goal at the other end.  Hull City, who had looked absolutely bound for the Championship division, scored a mild upset over Crystal Palace, then doubled down with a bigger win over Liverpool on Tuesday night; they now sit in 15^th , four points clear of relegation.  Even Sunderland (1-1 draw with Stoke) and QPR (0-0 draw with West Ham) picked up points.  Aston Villa were not so lucky, as Dennis will describe below.

Well, when you do THIS (alternate angle HERE) in the opening 5 minutes, your chances to win go down considerably.  Given their recent form, Villa started this match uncharacteristically sloppy and were honestly lucky to only be down 1 after 25 minutes.  They slowly grew into the match and began to resemble the side I've gotten used to for the past month.  City doubled their lead halfway through the second half on a decent free kick, but one that should have been stopped by the wall.  Kieran Richardson was just kind of hanging out just off the end of the wall and when Kolarov hit the free kick, Richardson actually ducked away from the wall and let the ball sneak in the near post.  Look, if you don't want to be in the wall, then go mark someone, but don't half-ass being in a wall - all you have to do is stand their and cover yourself! 

Villa answered almost immediately on a goal that should have been called offsides on Benteke (which  would have been the 7,457th time this match he was called offside) and actually managed to deservedly even the score at 2 in the 85th minute.  But a bonus point was not meant to be as more sloppy defending on a City corner allowed them to reclaim all three points.  Take off the first and last 5 minutes of this match and Villa looked great, but a good 80 minutes doesn't put points on the board.  I wasn't counting on these points, but losing one so late hurts, especially when everyone else keeps creeping up.  Their remaining fixtures are fairly tough and I will certainly be sweating watching the other relevant matches.  It's going to be a hell of a ride the next four weeks and just like Villa, I'm not sure I'll make it through. 

So things are still really tight, with nine points separating 14^th from 20^th.  I was going to link to a Sky Bet relegation predictor but I have found at least two mistakes in it; they have West Brom with 36, not 37 points and they ignore that somebody has to pick up points in the Newcastle-West Brom match (though with the recent form of both clubs you can maybe understand how they missed that).  Working on old-fashioned paper, I did find a couple of scenarios in which 38 points is not enough but they involve things like Sunderland beating Arsenal and Chelsea in the space of five days.  I’ve also found some scenarios in which 32 will keep you up.

Less Drama at the Top

The first half of Arsenal-Chelsea was riveting, and not just for the controversial choices referee Michael Oliver had to make.  For my two cents, Oliver should have awarded a PK and issued yellow to Ospina for his foul on Oscar, should have made no call on the Fabregas incident in the box (yellow to Cesc for simulation was a bit harsh because there was minimal contact - though he really didn't argue and almost seemed to be saying, yeah, you caught me acting), and got the no call for handling on Cahill correct.  The second half wasn’t quite as open and the 0-0 draw basically ends the title race.

Despite a 3-0 thumping by Everton, Manchester United is probably still safe for a Champions League spot thanks to a 2-2 draw between Southampton and Tottenham (for me the most enjoyable match of the weekend to watch) and Liverpool’s 0-0 with West Brom followed by a loss to Hull.  Barring an Aston Villa win in the FA Cup final, Tottenham, Southampton and Liverpool will be the Europa League entrants from the EPL.  The tricky part is that the final is after the season ends so the three teams will need to assume they’re fighting for two spots (or possibly tanking for one).

Union Not Getting Better

Actually, they’re getting worse, as evidenced by the 4-1 thumping at the hands of the Columbus Crew.  The franchise appears directionless, with no plan for development/improvement.  The good news is that I’ll be at PPL to witness the carnage up close as they take on Toronto.

Chester Season Wrap-up

We did manage a draw on the final day with Manchester United.  Unfortunately Aston Villa and Liverpool both won so we finished 6^th.  Still, not bad at all for a club that a few short years ago was playing in the 5^th division.  Michael B and Dennis will be quick to point out that this is indeed fantasy football as Tottenham was third and Aston Villa fourth (I almost made this comment at the beginning of the paragraph, but decided to read until the end before I said anything...).

Preparing now for the summer transfer window.  We got over $24 million for finishing 6^th so I’m hoping ownership will spring for a transfer budget north of $20 million and a salary budget of over $300k a week.  If that doesn’t happen, my decision to turn down the Everton job will, in retrospect, be unfortunate.

Matches with Consequences

We start early Saturday (7:45 am) with Newcastle at Leicester; the Foxes were brought back to earth with a 1-3 mid-week defeat by Chelsea but still seem to have plenty of fight.  Newcastle get some reinforcements but will they be enough?  The 10 am matches include Aston Villa hosting Everton (don’t like the Villans' odds in this one against a surging Everton side), QPR at Liverpool (would have said mark this down as a defeat for the Rangers but Liverpool’s recent indifference makes me wonder), Sunderland hosting Southampton (the Saints should prevail) and Burnley traveling to London to face West Ham (who knows?).

Sunday at 11 sees Tottenham hosting Man City; pretty much the last chance for Spurs to challenge for a Champions League spot, plus a loss could likely leave them third in the race for the Europa League spots.  The other Sunday match is Arsenal at Hull; relegation candidates would prefer the Gunners take care of business here, thank you very much.

Don't forget first legs of Champions League semis are Tuesday and Wednesday.

BFS Apologizes to FA Cup

Dear FA Cup,

We are truly sorry that, in the past, we have made light of your prestigious competition.  Now that one of our own is so close to capturing the Cup, we see the error of our ways and hope that, in poking fun, we have not lessened its reputation.  In our defense, we were, in part, led astray by the many teams (cough, Newcastle, cough), that have put so little emphasis on winning this competition.  We should have seen through the lack of ambition exhibited by such clubs and realized the true value of bringing home a major competition like the FA Cup.  Again, we apologize for our behavior and hope that you will not hold it against Aston Villa.


Dennis - do you think they'll buy it?  Not a chance in hell.

This was one of the few FA cup matches I got to see (Thanks Michael B!) and it was worth it.  I said last week that I would watch the match and find out how much I actually cared.  The answer is a lot more than I thought but still a lot less than avoiding relegation - as Steve mentioned, the whole winning the FA Cup and still getting relegated thing didn't really pan out for Wigan two seasons ago.  While watching, I realized that my priorities for the match were, in order:

1. No injuries - especially not to Benteke, who did spook me a little towards the end but appears fine
2. Continue their recent good form to carry through the rest of the season
3. Win the match

Amazingly enough, I got all three - minus an injury to Baker (who I don't really like but Villa don't exactly have a ton of fit central defenders so this injury could sting).  Villa really owned this game, despite conceding the first goal.  To understand how this game went, just read my comments on the 1-0 win over Spurs - the team looked confident and liked they belonged in the top half of the league, not a relegation battle.  Sherwood even made the same confusing substitutions as last week, which I am definitely keeping my eye on.  

I read some Aston Villa commentary suggesting that this was one of the greatest wins in club history.  I have not been a fan of the team long enough nor do I put enough weight on the historical significance of the competition to agree.  However, last week I would have scoffed at the idea that an FA Cup win was relevant at all.  Now, having seen how much it can mean to players and fans, I'll at least listen to an argument about it's relevance.

The other semi was pretty riveting too.  Reading, from the Championship division, did not go quietly into the night, giving Arsenal a decent fight, losing 2-1 in added extra time.  The winning goal was not a thing of beauty, as you can see from this week's YouTubeableMoment. In fact, it may be the quintessential picture of the "agony of defeat," especially since keeper Frederici's heroics had kept Reading in the match up to that point. 

So the final is set with Arsenal taking on Aston Villa on Saturday May 30th, with the winner getting a Europa League spot...unless Arsenal wins because they will likely have already clinched a spot in the Champions League, in which case the spot will go to the 7th place side in the EPL table.  More on that later.


More of the Same

For my two sides, Newcastle and the Union, Sunday only brought more of the same.  The Magpies were not awful but gave up two "hinky" looking goals in a 1-3 defeat at home to Tottenham.  Frankly, the score flatters Tottenham a bit; with the score 1-2, Newcastle had several good looks at an equalizing goal and the third Spurs goal was basically the result of Newcastle throwing everything into the offense.  But, a loss is a loss.  Fans walked out, a small plane flew overhead taunting the fans that Sunderland have won the last five derbies, yes it was fun times.  And all it did for Tottenham was to move Spurs closer to a Europa League spot, which we all know, works out so well for EPL sides.  At this point, probably the only thing that will keep Tottenham out of that competition is an Aston Villa win in the FA Cup, and even that won't be enough if Spurs insist on winning matches.

The Union were not much better.  Maidana had a beautiful set piece goal but Williams was toasted twice on defense and New England took all the points.  Like Newcastle, they weren't awful but you felt like the best they were going to be able to do was to hang on to a draw.  It's arguable that they withdrew into a defensive shell far too early.  By the way, don't be fooled by the Union's 8th place position in the table.  Ninth place Toronto has three games in hand and last place Montreal has four.  Not sure why it's so unbalanced at this point but Philadelphia's situation could be worse than it looks, if that's possible.


No CL Final for the Mattress Makers

Many of the usual suspects gathered at 6911 for the second leg of the CL quarterfinal tie, and 4000th Madrid derby this season, between Real Madrid and Atletico.  Like the first leg, the match was riveting but somewhat choppy with all the fouling.  Still, it was a pleasure to see the ball skills exhibited by both sides. Unfortunately for Michael B, and he would agree with this, Real were the better side that night.  Javier Hernandez (better know to us as Chicharito) got the game winner late as we had begun to contemplate added extra time.

Javier Hernández celebrates after scoring Real Madrid’s 88th-minute winner to secure a place in the semi-finals at the expense of their local rivals Atlético. Photograph: Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images



Every Match Matters

Well, almost.  Newcastle-Swansea is a yawner, though the Magpies are not completely out of the relegation fight yet.  But the other matches have title, Champions League, Europa League or relegation implications.

Arsenal take on Chelsea at 11 am on Sunday; this is probably the last chance for the Gunners to make a run at the title.  They are already down by 10 points and anything less than a win likely leaves them too far back with five matches left.  Man United are relatively safe in third but have a tough match against a revived Everton side.  Man City hold the last CL spot with a 7 point spread over Liverpool; they face Aston Villa, a side that needs a few more points to secure a spot in next year's EPL.

The Europa League sides are Liverpool, Tottenham and Southampton.  If Arsenal win the FA Cup, these three will likely get the berths, barring collapse by anybody above them.  If Aston Villa win, only two will play in Europa next year.  Tottenham travel to the coast to face Southampton on Saturday while Liverpool heads to Birmingham to face West Brom.

And the relegation battle is revving up.  Just three points separate 16th through 20th.  And NBCSN knows that the threat of relegation can make for exciting football, putting the Burnley-Leicester match as the 10 am Saturday match.  Leicester are in great form and have been playing exciting football even when they were losing.  Burnley have not been a pushover for anybody.  This could be some good stuff.  Dennis (and now I) will be hoping that Crystal Palace takes care of Hull, Stoke handle Sunderland and the London derby between QPR and West Ham goes to the Hammers.

The Union travel to Columbus to face the Crew on Saturday night.  Haven't said anything about the Red Bulls so far and Chris K hasn't gloated in the comment section but they are undefeated and atop the Eastern Conference.  Sigh, it must be fun to watch your team do well.

Pardew Was Not the Problem

On the road so will be keeping it short.  Things did get better for most of the BFS "home" sides but Newcastle was a notable exception.

While the Magpies lost 0-2 to Liverpool, Crystal Palace - the Alan Pardew-managed Crystal Palace - handed Sunderland a 4-1 thumping at the Stadium of Light.  Aside from being a helpful result to Dennis and his Aston Villa side, it also highlights the contrast between the fortunes of Newcastle and Crystal Palace since Pardew's change.  Recall that last week Newcastle could barely manage shots on goal, let alone put any in the net in a 0-1 loss to Sunderland.  Pardew brings his charges into the same park and has little trouble dispensing with the relegation-threatened Black Cats.  Just sayin...

Newcastle were better than last week but still far from good enough to really threaten Liverpool  I guess Abeid had a few chances and Perez missed a golden opportunity.  Unimpressed with Lee Mason's performance.  Wasn't so much the fouls he called on Newcastle but what he didn't call on Liverpool.  He missed a pretty clear PK on Perez in the first half.  Newcastle had 17 fouls to Liverpool's 8;  not what I saw.  But then Mason did give us a make up call; he gave Sissoko a second yellow instead of a straight red on what looked like one of the more egregious fouls of the year.  Smart - that's a two-game ban at a time when the Magpies are already shorthanded.  To be clear, Mason wasn't the reason Newcastle lost but I did think he had a bad day too.


Nearly Perfect Weekend for Aston Villa

Start with the unexpected 1-0 win over Tottenham.  (Michael B can feign disappointment over this result but secretly he's happy because losses like this might help Spurs "miss out" on the Europa Cup.)  Then, most of the teams in the relegation fight lost as well; the one side that did win - Leicester - is still at the bottom of the table.  Dennis seems ready to declare the relegation threat over (not true, see below) but I will caution that no team with just 33 points has avoided relegation since the EPL went to 20 teams; the depth at the bottom of the table this year is such that it very well might be enough but I'd hold off celebrating.

First, Villa only have 32 points (I think I meant that even 33 points has never been enough).  Second, I am in no way ready to declare the relegation fight over, but I understand how Steve reached that conclusion.  My comment after the stunning win over Tottenham was "those three points might be enough".  I did not mean they would need zero more points this season - I meant that I think they can get whatever points they will need, which if history is any indication, should be about 4 more.  I have been under the assumption for weeks that Villa need to beat Burnley on the final weekend to stay up, so that leaves just one other point to gain from 4 matches.  It is entirely possible that we don't get that point and are left praying that 35 is enough.  In any event, their season still seems to be building towards that final weekend home match.

But if we keep playing like we did against the Spurs, maybe one more point is realistic.  Villa simply looked the slightly better team (though I missed the final 8-10 minutes due to replay issues, so I don't know how tense the finale was) and Benteke continued his remarkable resurgence with the game winning header.  I did question Sherwood a little bit for removing Grealish and not Sanchez, as the former retained the crispness from the QPR match and the latter was basically sending every touch and pass wayward.  Lo and behold, Sanchez stayed on long enough to receive a second yellow.  So far I have generally agreed with Sherwood's choices, but this seemed an obvious blunder.  

I'll probably watch the Villans FA Cup match, but I don't know how much I'll care.  I guess I'll find out and report back.


This Is Not My Beautiful Game

Heavy use of the dvr this weekend meant I saw all or most of, in the following order, Arsenal 1-0 over Burnley, Union 2-1 over NYFC, and Chelsea 1-0 over QPR (this one had me nervous as Chelsea waited to the very end to claim the points).  No complaints about the results per se but boy that was some brutal viewing.  Unremarkable matches with unremarkable goals.  Well mostly unremarkable.  Check out the Union's Eric Ayuk after he scores against NYFC, this week's YouTubeableMoment (h/t Bob K for reference).  Wonder who had to tell Ayuk that in the "end" the goal was credited to Pfeffer as the ball came off his butt.

Also saw the 0-0 first leg of CL quarter final between Real Madrid and Atletico.  Tense match but also not my idea of the beautiful game - 30 fouls and 5 yellows.  Amazing there were still 22 players at the pitch at full time.  They meet for the second leg next Wednesday.

An exception to the less than beautiful games, to some extent, was the Manchester derby.  Although Man United ended up winning easily this was still a fun match to watch - generally open play and some high quality goals.  The Citizens are looking shaky and their recent form may not be good enough to earn a Champions League spot.  The Red Devils, on the other hand, are playing perhaps their football of the year.


Honorary BFS

(Full Disclaimer: I had the Everton-Swansea match on, but was totally asleep when this happened.  I asked Emily if she remembered anything remarkable from this weekend's set of matches and she conjured up the gem seen here. [Duly noted; I will send your paycheck to Emily.])

With no real BFSs to speak of, we must showcase other examples of refs punishing players for going down too easily.  This move by Seamus Coleman is certainly in the right spirit:

and is almost as good as a BFS since he must have thought he was fouled to do something like this.  [Additional context:  Coleman was called for handling, Shelvey converted the PK and the match ended in a 1-1 draw; also too, Eveton manager Roberto Martinez claims Emnes should have been called for a foul on Coleman.  Alrighty then.] He clearly needs to take lessons from his own keeper, who showed us earlier this season how to handle (or not!) these situations:

Dos a Cero

For the 8th time since 2000, the USMNT beat Mexico 2-0.  Didn't see the match and I have made my views about friendly results clear.  Does sound like there were some improved performances.  Garza had been slipping - at least IMHO - but maybe has been energized by competition for the left back spot from Brek Shea, who also did well last night after subbing in for Garza.  Happy to see high ratings for Bradley and Diskerud too.


The Weekend - FA Cup Semi-finals

EPL has a reduced schedule because of the two FA Cup semis featuring Arsenal-Reading and Aston Villa (crowd noise) - Liverpool.  These being semi-final matches, the venue will be Wembley Stadium.  Arsenal-Reading are on Fox on Saturday at 12:30 (same time as Chelsea v Manchester United on NBC - big stink about that).  Aston Villa - Liverpool is 10 am Sunday on FoxSports 1 (interfering with the Monday Night Basketball derby of Newcastle v Tottenham at 11).

Matches of consequence are mostly on the relegation end, though the last CL spot is possibly still at risk.  Dennis will be rooting for Everton to take care of Burnley and Swansea to stop Leicester.  Southampton could improve their chances to make the Champions League with a win at Stoke while Manchester City, hoping to hang onto that last spot, are hosting West Ham.

The Union finish a tough three game stretch at home vs the Revolution.