The Glass Ceiling

It's early September and the EPL still has that new season smell.  The table looks a little weird - Aston Villa is 3rd while Everton sits in 17th - and there's plenty of hope to go around.  Ah, but history says we know pretty much where things will end up and it's the same players every time.

I looked at each EPL season going back to 1995-96 - when the league dropped from 22 to 20 teams - and recorded where each club finished.  The results, while not surprising, suggest that the Champions League spots, i.e. the top four places, have historically been the domain of just four teams.  Those four are - all together class - Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool.  Manchester City is having a great run but has a ways to go to catch up to those four. 

Only four teams have won the league since 95-96 - Manchester United (11 times), Arsenal and Chelsea (three times each) and Manchester City (twice).  Though not directly comparable because the EPL has just 20 teams and the title is not a playoff, in the last 19 years there have been 10 different World Series winners and 12 different Super Bowl winners.

But for me the bigger story is how little variation there is in the top four places.  Since 95-96, just 10 teams have made it to that rarefied air.  You can probably name some of them; the list includes the five I've already mentioned plus Tottenham, Everton, Leeds United, Newcastle and Aston Villa.  Sadly yes, Dennis and I have both picked teams with not-too-long-ago stretches of quality football.  But wait, even though 10 teams have made it to that level, how often is it a side other than Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea or Liverpool?  Not too frequently.  Of the 76 top four places up for grabs since 95-96 (19 seasons x 4 places), 61, or 80%, have gone to the Axis of Evil clubs, leaving just 15 for the rest of us.  Adding Manchester City gets that figure to 65, or 86%.

This concentration is the result, I believe, of two keys aspects of the structure of English football.  First, there is no draft.  The best young unsigned players are free to sign with any club.  They typically start with the club's youth academy and, if good enough, work their way to the reserve squad and eventually the first team.  Not that I have done a comprehensive study but it seems to me this stacks the deck in favor of the top clubs right from the start.  A low finish doesn't get you a high draft pick, it just makes it more likely that a youth prospect is going to sign with somebody else.

The second aspect is that most of the player movement from team-to-team is on a cash basis.  That is, there aren't a lot of trades like we see in American sports; instead the rights to sign a player are bought and sold for cash.  In the American model, Team A needs a striker but has too many keepers while Team B needs a keeper but has an extra striker so they arrange a trade.  That works well sometimes but how often is the team you're looking to trade with interested in any of your players?  In the EPL model, Team A just looks for teams that are will to part with a striker; assuming they can agree on the transfer fee, the deal can be done even if Team A has no one of interest to Team B.  On the one hand, this seems like a much more efficient market to me; player movement is easier.  But again, it seems like it favors the rich teams, who are more likely to have the cash to acquire the players they need than the less well-off teams, whose assets are mostly in the form of the players themselves as opposed to cash on the balance sheet.  I suppose a lower tier side can do a great job scouting to find players overlooked by the others; when those players become too expensive to retain, they can sell them and plow the cash back into new players.  In some ways, I guess that's no different than the baseball team that, hopelessly out the race in August, trades their ace pitcher for a raft of prospects.  Still seems like the advantage goes to the big money clubs to me.

Some additional random facts.  In the 19 years studied, 44 teams have competed in the EPL. Seven sides have not been relegated in that time - Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Man United, and Tottenham.  Things seem a bit more open below 6th place; 19 have been as high as 7th place, 26 have reached 8th place, 30 have been in the top nine at least once, and 31 have finished at least as high as 10th.


Vincete aut perite

That's my attempt at altering the Union motto - jungite aut perite (Join or Perish) - to win or perish.  My last exposure to Latin was sophomore year of high school so my conjugation skills are a bit rusty.  Anyway, my point is that it's crunch time for the Union and even draws won't cut it now.  Fortunately, they have been up to the task.  After a 1-0 win over Toronto FC at home they went up north and played even better, besting Toronto 2-0.  This was possibly the best 90 minutes of the Union season.  Great to have Maidana and Noguiera in the line up at the same time.  Edu continues to anchor an improved back line.  There weren't too many moments when the Union were not firmly in control of this match.

Unfortunately, most of the other sides did what they needed to as well.  The Red Bulls pulled a mild upset over suddenly struggling Sporting KC, Columbus and Houston got expected wins over Chivas and Montreal, and New England beat Chicago.  The spread from 3rd to 9th is a little bigger but still pretty tight.  The Union sit in 5th right now but New York and Toronto have a game in hand.  The weekend is full of more critical matches, probably none bigger than the Red Bulls coming to Chester to face the Union at 3 pm on Saturday.  Houston and Columbus plus Chicago and Toronto are important too; New England really should be able to hand Montreal and solidify their hold on third.


Chester Blues

Good news on the cyber pitch, less positive off.  We stole three points at Hull City despite being outshot 15-3 and outpossessed 55%-45%.  A late goal off a corner by Ronan Gallagher was the difference.  In the lower leagues, I tended to ignore my scouts when they said the upcoming opponent did well against a 4-4-2 formation; I figured we were just a better side.  Not so in the EPL.  I've used a 4-1-2-1-2 and a 4-1-3-2 so far and am paying strict attention to the scouting reports about formations.

The bad news is that another player, Gaetano Hoffman, a young Swiss striker has also said he is having trouble settling into the Chester.  What is it about the city?  No night life?  I've never been to Chester so I can't say but this is an annoying trend.


The EPL Lineup

The weekend gets off to a great start with Arsenal hosting Man City, both looking to return to form after last week's disappointing outings.  Then we have first playing second as Swansea City travels to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea.  Aston Villa gets another prime time TV showing as they take on Liverpool.  Tottenham and Everton have every hope of getting past their recent losses as they take on Sunderland and West Brom.  Man United host Queens Park Rangers, setting up another one of those [insert team here] hasn't won at Old Trafford since [insert year here].  And my beloved Magpies go way south to take on Southampton; not holding my breath for anything positive out of this road trip.

Probably won't get to see a lot of these - or the Union - live so if you happen to watch some of these, jot down a few notes and put them in next week's comments.