Summer "Break" Is Almost Here

Thin schedule but we'll catch up on a few EPL items.  We get a couple of quiet weeks before things ramp back up.  

There's Context and Then There's Context

The better Agyemang? Patrick might learn something from Michelle
Photo:Reuters

Both Euro Championship semis went to added extra time but neither made it to a penalty shoot out. England got a stoppage time goal from super sub Michelle Agyemang to level the match at 1-1, then got a PK call in the 119th minute.  Chloe Kelly's shot was stopped but she put in the rebound for the game winner.  The call, which you can see here, was not without controversy.

I heard two arguments about why this should not have been called, one which I'm not buying but the other has some merit.  Some argue that this was too soft a foul to call in the 119th minute of a contest.  For me that's in the same vein as you can't give a yellow card in the opening minutes of a match.  If it's an infraction, call it regardless of the time and score.  On the other hand, several pointed out that this referee had been lenient about calling fouls the entire game and had been playing on through stuff that looked similar to this one for nearly 120 minutes.  That context I do think is relevant.  The replays I saw didn't really help sort it out and if you watch the video.  In the end, the referee was in perfect position to make the call and had the best view of anybody so I don't have a big problem with this.

Spain - Germany was tense as neither side could score in regulation.  Spain got the breakthrough on a goal from Bonmati, which is presented here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  First, the dummy to let the ball through was brilliant.  She went near post as the keeper seemed more concerned about the cross than the shot.  Dennis said that Spain players knew that Berger had a habit of leaving the near post open.  Clearly worthy of a game winner.

So we get a repeat of the World Cup Final - Spain versus England.

Memo to Women Soccer Players

Does that look accidental to you?
Photo:. Sebastian Christoph Gollnow/dpa

STOP WATCHING THE MENS GAME! In the Club World Cup final a few Sundays ago we saw Neves sent off for pulling Cucarella's hair.  In Saturday's quarterfinal against France, Germany's Hendrich got sent off for pulling Mbock's hair.  She got the requisite red card.  What was particularly galling was that Hendrich seemed stunned by the call, as in "What did I do?  How is that a red card?"  The German manager also got a yellow, I'm pretty sure for arguing the call.  The excuses continued after the match as a German official claimed that "her hand got caught in her hair."  Hmm, the picture (left) suggests otherwise. The bottom line: shithousery is definitely on the rise in the women's game.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Almost Did

Dennis: Did you say it's hard to score goals against Germany?

Steve: No, I said they have a Knaak for defending.

 

Back to Third

Completing their third match in eight days, the Union could only manage a 1-1 draw in Houston.  I did see the match live, though it was admittedly distracted viewing.  Definitely chippy, with 44 (!) fouls (25 by the Union) seven yellow cards and a late red card for Frankie Westfield.  Early in the first half we saw the referee pleading with the teams to tone it down but it didn't seem to make much difference.  To me, despite only 37% possession, the U seemed the better side.  Expected goals was 1.7-1.5 favor the Union but if you adjust for Houston's PK, the difference is 1.7-.7.  As in, we're still not scoring like we should.

Bedoya's scruffy goal gave them an early lead but Jack McGlynn's PK in first half stoppage time leveled the match and ended the scoring for the night.  From what I could tell, Bueno did a chicken wing with his right arm and the PK was probably deserved.  On the other hand, the foul called against Harriel in the buildup that negated a PK foul against Damiani looked really soft.  The game had other consequences, with both Harriel (yellow card accumulation) and Westfield (straight red card) suspended for Saturday's match versus Colorado.  And, with Cincinnati and Nashville picking up wins, the U dropped to third in the East.

 

Who's Your Gaffer?

Answers to last week's trivia question:

If they were all in one room, somebody might be tempted to say "Look around, half of you won't be here next year."

Not So Fast

Got a few comments on Anthony Elanga's sub-11 second 100 meter clocking.  Most notably, BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W observed that:

Hmmmm.....sub 11 is quick, but certainly not "elite". For context, less than 100 USA high school boys (rough estimate) run that fast each year. You'd have a solid shot at making the USA women's Olympic team. A person with 10.0 speed would get about 10 yards of separation from a 10.9 runner in a full pitch breakaway...i.e. leave them in the dust. 

Fortunately, Elanga will not be competing against any of them.

Who's Your Oddsmaker?

Not seeing enough predictions for the coming EPL season yet.  But, for fun, we can look at how people did last year.  See the chart below:

We use Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) to assess accuracy.  Opta was gold medal winner, with Pinnacle and Average silver and bronze.    Opta got eight picks spot on, one that was a single place off and three that were two spots off.  Arsenal was the most correct pick across the board - no one missed by more than one place.  Man United, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest stumped the experts most often, with most recording double digit misses on all three.  Yogi was right.

Short Schedule

So we have the Union on Saturday night at Subaru Park vs Colorado.  The Rapids are decidedly a mid-table side so we should be looking for three points here.  Opta agrees, giving them 63% chance for a win.  They will be a little short in the back but probably still okay.  I'd be interested in more goals from Baribo, Damiani and Uhre.

We also have the Women's Euro Final featuing Spain and England.  Kickoff is at noon on Fox.  I had figured Spain would be a clear favorite here but that's not what Opta has.  They show Spain at 38%, England at 35%, with a 27% chance of added extra time/penalty kicks.  

Three weeks until EPL starts.