Better Odds to Make Champions League?

Everybody in the top 7 dropped points this weekend except Newcastle and Aston Villa.  Union delivered exactly what we hoped against Columbus - dammit - though they did come through mid-week.

Signature Win

Well yeah, if your trademark is to get three points when you don't look like the best team on the pitch.  The scoreboard says the Magpies beat Chelsea 2-0 but it did not feel that way at all.  Things started out well enough and included a great goal from Tonali, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment. They were the better team until they went up a man at 30 minutes.  From then on, they were second best.  The second half was terrible.  You would have thought Newcastle were down a man.  They couldn't string together a series of passes, were easily dispossessed and rarely won the loose ball.  Bruno's goal at 90 minutes meant that stoppage time wasn't scary but that was small consolation after watching nearly an hour of ineffective football.  Fair reporting requires me to note that final score is not terribly out of line with xG, which was 1.62-.67 favor Magpies.  Most of that 1.62 must have occurred before the sending off because this felt pretty one sided.  

Reading this, I realize it sounds pretty sour for a guy who's team just got a big win and now sit in third place.  Sorry about that but Newcastle didn't exactly look like a Champions League quality team despite the securing the important win.  I will try to cheer up.

Keep the Passports Current

As unimpressive as Newcastle were, Aston Villa couldn't even match that.  They walked away with a 1-0 win over Bournemouth in which the equalizing goal never seemed too far away.  Villa's goal, seen here, was the merest of touches by Ollie Watkins, though it may be fair to suggest it wouldn't have gone in without that touch.  The final 15 minutes or so were made even scarier when Ramsey got sent off for a second yellow at 80 minutes.  Like Newcastle though, regardless of the quality, the win moved them up to 6th in the table and guaranteed they'll be back in Europe next fall.  

It's Only A Rabbit

Surely Man City and Nottingham Forest must have been looking forward to notching wins this weekend as they faced the bottom two teams in the league.  Probably right, but please don't call me Shirley.  So how'd that work out?  Well, here's the pregame talk and some highlights from Nottingham Forest - Leicister.

Southampton defended ferociously 
against Man City

I kid, but only a little.  Forest conceded an early goal to 19th place Leicester but did rally on goals by Gibbs-White and this marvelous header from Chris Wood - his 20th of the season.  But three points weren't going to theirs as Buonanotte scored a late goal to get Leicester a 2-2 draw.  Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis was decidedly not pleased with this result and came out on the pitch to express his dismay with Nuno Espirito Santo.  The gist of the his complaint seemed to center around Forest playing the last 10 minutes or so down a man when Elanga had to leave with an injury after they had used all their subs.  Geez, since the draw assured Forest a place in one of next year's European competitions, a simple thank you to Nino might have been enough.  This was a decent watch by the way so kudos to Leicester for showing up ready to play.

Southampton did their best to get City the win, managing just two shots - none on target - and an xG of .11; not surprisingly, they failed to score.  However, even with 26 shots, 72% possession and an xG of 1.66, City didn't manage to score either.  A 0-0 draw with the last place side doesn't exactly scream "we belong in the Champions League."  Glad I didn't tune in for that one.

Arsenal probably don't feel as bad about their 2-2 draw with Liverpool. Maybe they had been hoping that the Reds were ready for the beach but that didn't happen.  The City draw took some of the sting away but the Gunners have not locked up Champions League yet.

Severance: Season 2 Episode 36

Spurs and Man United "innies" racing to get away from their "outies"

Spurs and Man United outies managed duplicate 0-2 losses.  Man United's loss to West Ham was especially damning as it allowed the Hammers to leap over both United and Spurs.  Heading into the last two weeks, Spurs sit in 17th with 38 points, one behind 16th place Man United.  Dennis notes that in a normal year, both might have found themselves in a relegation battle.  

Careful What You Wish For

The Union's two results - a 2-2 draw with Columbus and a 3-2 win over the LA Galaxy - are like a pair of fours on my golf scorecard.  You need to know the details to understand the journey.  For the first one (a difficult par 4), I hit a good drive, then put my second shot about a foot from the pin.  Birdie baby!  But no, I miss the putt and walk away disappointed with what otherwise should be a good four.  That's the Columbus match.  Nice efforts from Baribo and Westfield help the Union carry a 2-1 lead into stoppage time.  But they yielded a goal in stoppage time on a set piece.  I know I said I would be thrilled with a draw against first place Columbus but you didn't tell me that the Union would be seconds away from taking all three.  Trying to remember that this is a good result on a difficult par 4 against a top team.

On the other hole - a relatively easy par 4 - I hit a terrible drive, don't reach the green with my second, and the chip leaves me 25 feet from the hole.  Miraculously, I make the putt for the improbably par.  That would be the LA Galaxy match.  Two goals against the run of play, left the Union down 0-2 to the winless Galaxy side.  Harriel and Baribo at least got them back in the game with goals at 48 and 50.  Then, in the 96th minute Baribo heads in the game winner, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment - This Side of the Pond.  It says W on the scoresheet but it was way harder than that.  

Playing Columbus even and coming back froma an 0-2 deficit suggest that maybe this is a decent team.

Distracted Viewing

Off to New Hampshire to put my dad's ashes in the ground.  Up there, if you pass away after November 1, you have to wait until the following May for the burial.  

Just one match on Saturday - the FA Cup Final between Man City and Crystal Palace.  Good to get this final in the books because of its impact on the European placements.  A Man City win most likely means 8th place gets Europa Conference League; a Crystal Palace win means they play in Europa Cup and 8th place gets you a handshake.

For the league matches, still a surpising number that still have relevance.  Though the top 7 are set, the order from 2nd-7th is still up in the air.  And, by Saturday afternoon, we'll know if 8th place is still a target.

The week gets started early with two matches on Friday afternoon, both with significance.  Aston Villa host Spurs at 2:30 and Chelsea take on Man United at 3:15.  Villa and Chelsea are level on points but the Blues have a big goal differential advantage.  

Sunday will be very busy.  Another Sunday 7 am match but only friends and family will likely be interested in the outcome of Everton - Southampton.  Same with Leicster -Ipswich at 10.  But the other three matter.  West Ham host Nottingham Forest at 9:15, Brentford face Fulham at 10 and Newcastle travel to London to face Arsenal.  Yes, another trip to The Emirates, that "Little Shop of Horrors" for the Magpies.  Since its opening in fall 2006, Newcastle are 2-2-16 and have been outscored 10-48.  They are however on a one game winning streak there, having pulled off a 2-0 win in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi.  A win would move them into second and guarantee a Champions League spot. 

There is Monday and Tuesday action as well.  On Monday, Brighton host Liverpool with the Seagulls clinging to faint hopes of Europa Conference League.  Crystal Palace take on Wolves with both teams packing for the summer.  Those games are at 3 pm.  Tuesday has Man City hosting Bournemouth with both teams vying for spots in Europe, albeit different levels.

Speaking of Europe, the first of the three finals is Wednesday at 3 pm with Spurs and Man United meeting in the Europa Cup Final.  Presumably, their innies will click in as they land in Spain (the match is at Bilbao) and we'll be treated to a good match.  A spot in next year's Champions League is on the line so they should be competitive.  Hmm, I wonder how "legitimate" their lineups will be on Friday for their league matches.

The Union get in two matches this week.  Saturday they are in Atlanta and Wednesday they are back home to take on the Pittsburgh River Hounds in a round of 16 contest in the US Open Cup.  Hoping to be in the stands for that one.

Working with a sketchy wifi connection up here in NH.  Hope this goes through.