Draws Good and Bad

Both of my favorite sides came away with draws on Saturday.   Clear thinking would say neither was acceptable but one felt a lot better than the other.  Dealing with them chronologically, we start with Newcastle's 2-2 draw with Hull City at St. James' Park.

Though the Magpies had outplayed the Tigers in the first half, the crowd was jittery owing to the fact that despite the massive statistical advantage, the home side had failed to score.  Is it Riviere or the formation, which leaves him alone up top?  We'll return to that in a minute.  Hull took the lead on a brilliant scissor shot from Jelavic, this week's YouTubeable Moment.  A second goal from Diame, also a well-taken shot, in the 68th minute left Newcastle looking dead and buried.  I was texting back and forth with Dennis trying to get the correct spelling of f***, f***, f***ety, f*** (final ruling f***ity).  Surprisingly, the St. James' crowd did not mutiny.  Further surprise, Cisse was inserted for Riviere, despite lingering questions about his fitness.  Biggest surprise, Cisse nets two in 15 minutes and Newcastle steal a point back from Hull.

Where to start?  I know, I know.  We have to get three at home against teams like Hull.  But, the Magpies pretty much dominated.  Two minor mistakes by two of the squad's more reliable players (Colback and Tiote) and Hull needed two amazing shots to convert them.  Creativity in the final third and finishing continue to be the issue.  I'm torn between the problem being Riviere or a formation with one striker.  Cisse didn't seem to have a problem with the formation.  This cool graphic suggests several things.  Like Riviere wasn't very effective except when he moved away from goal, which doesn't sound like a good thing for a striker.  (Postscript: he scored one goal from open play and another on a PK in Newcastle's 3-2 midweek win over Crystal Palace in the Capital One League Cup third round match so maybe he's figured something out.) Or, as the text notes, maybe Cabella and Sissoko are crowding each other on the right.  Whatever the issue, that did not look like a relegation-worthy team on Saturday.  This was another game I'm sure they would have lost last year so the draw isn't all bad.  I know, I know.  They still sit at the bottom of the table.

On the other side of the pond, there isn't much positive spin I can find for the Union's 0-0 draw with Houston.  They didn't look bad but at home against a team behind them in the standings has to be a win.  Sure, the Union could have been given a PK for the foul on Noguiera in the box but that can't be the sum total of the offense.  What's worse, the competition had a pretty good weekend.  The Red Bulls beat up on Seattle's second team and Columbus took a 1-0 win from New England.  Maybe the Union's fate will come down to the two matches with Columbus on 10/11 and 10/26.  In the meantime, they have a tough test at RFK Stadium against DC United this weekend.  Setting the bar a little low realistically, one point would be great.


Aston Villa Returns to Earth

This match went exactly according to the season plan except for one minor flaw.  We defended well early, pressed as a team, and countered as team, leading to two excellent chances in the first 20 minutes.....that we did not score.  Having exhausted our two shots on goal for the match (we did actually manage a third, though much later I believe) and having no goals to show for it spelled doom.  The Villans hung on for another 10 minutes until Ozil finally broke out of his post world cup daze and easily slotted home the opening goal.  Arsenal were just warming up and scored two more goals in the next 3 minutes.  One was an own goal that would probably have been scored by Arsenal had Cissokho not done the honors and the other was a typical Arsenal display of quick movement and even quicker passing.  Aston Villa essentially gave up the fight at this point and never really made a serious attempt at a comeback.

There was much talk before the match about a bug spreading through the Villa camp in the previous week.  It even forced starting midfielder Ashley Westwood out of the match during pre-game warm ups.  It's hard to blame some unknown force for 4 minutes of utter incompetence and the team didn't appear especially sluggish or tired, but who knows.  Maybe they all only had 30 minutes of real energy to give.  Or maybe Arsenal beats them every time.  In any case, this was a somewhat expected set back that still leaves Villa with 10 points and sitting in third.  It was, however, disheartening to watch Villa's effort, or lack thereof, after falling behind followed up by Leicester's fearless answer to their early deficit while hosting Manchester United.  I don't feel like our players believe such a comeback is possible and I certainly won't believe it until I see it - early leads and stingy defense feel like our only path to victory this season.  Hopefully that can be enough.

Message to EPL Top Table Teams

Excuse me but wtf?  Us middle to lower table teams expect the top table sides to take care of business when they face the bottom dwellers.  These are the teams we fight with to avoid relegation so giving away three points to them is simply unacceptable.  Yeah, I'm looking right at you Tottenham (1-0 losers to West Brom) and Everton (3-2 losers to Crystal Palace).  Manchester United managed another first and it didn't involve losing at Old Trafford; this was the first EPL match the Red Devils lost after having a two-goal lead.  And Liverpool fell behind 0-2 early, got close but ultimately lost to West Ham 1-3.


FC Does Not Stand for Fight Club

Arlo White suggested the Man City - Chelsea contest was a cagey match.  Cage match was more like it.  Referee Mike Dean started out lenient, trying to let them play and not disrupt the flow too much, but eventually had to start handing out yellows like business cards to keep the match from turning into a hockey game.  Eventually somebody got a second - Zabaleta - and Chelsea had a man advantage for the last 30 minutes.  Man City could possibly have had 12 or 13 men on the field and it wouldn't have mattered given the quality of Hazard's cross to Schurrle.  But the story line was heading elsewhere.  Frank Lampard, he of 200+ goals for Chelsea, came on as a substitute for Man City and with a lovely right footed shot squared the match in the 85th minute.  Out of respect for his former teammates, his "celebration" was quite muted.  Given the level of fouling, I would not submit this match as an example soccer as the "beautiful game," but I would suggest it was fascinating and riveting to watch, worth viewing even if you know the outcome.


Derbies and More Derbies

Two biggies this weekend - Merseyside and North London.  Everton travel to Anfield and Tottenham are at The Emirates.  Of the four, only Arsenal have displayed any kind of acceptable form recently but expect these to be high quality matches.  Aston Villa continue their march through last year's top five, facing Chelsea at Stamford Bridge; I think Dennis has already discounted this match so even a point would be gravy.  Man City have what should be a winnable road match versus Hull, assuming they are not wiped out from the Chelsea match.  Man United get West Ham at Old Trafford; frankly I don't know what to expect from them anymore.  And lastly, Newcastle travel to Stoke City for a Monday match. Incredibly, the Potters have scored fewer goals then the Magpies but do have a stingy defense; a draw would be a very satisfactory result for Newcastle.

Looking at the TV schedule, here's a thought that is sure to be a hit in your household.  On Saturday, get up at 7:30, turn your TV on to NBC Sports Network, plant your butt in a comfortable spot and don't leave until around 5:15.  You'll see Liverpool-Everton at 7:45, Man United-West Ham at 10, Arsenal-Tottenham at 12:30 and DC United-Union at 3 pm.  Kinda makes you wish for a snow day in September doesn't it?

The Dark Arts of Defending

How convenient that the week I am assigned to prime blogging duties is also the week in which an Aston Villa upset is one of the main story lines. With Chelsea continuing their early domination, a couple of exciting 2-2 draws, and a pair of 4-0 blowouts that may send the participating teams in opposite directions, it was just another week at the EPL office.

Aston Villa continued a recent trend of taking points from Liverpool at Anfield. In the past 4 season, we have managed 8 points in 4 games at Anfield, though I’ll casually omit the number of points won at home over that same span. This game showcased both focal points of the Villa team this year – solid defending and making our limited chances count. In the words of Arlo White, the defense was “hard-working, solid, and disciplined” and Gabby Agbonlahor scored the game’s only goal on Villa’s only shot on target. Liverpool had the significant possession advantage for most of the game, but the Reds attack struggled with so many Villa players always behind the ball. Balotelli still looked like he was settling in and the absence of Daniel Sturridge, who was hurt while on international leave for England, was certainly a factor. Liverpool are most likely on their way to another excellent season, but this game showed that they are probably not on the same level as the other top teams this season. I have a feeling that the new-look Chelsea would have managed at least one goal given the same 81 minutes.

A deeper dive into the early season success of Aston Villa, who moved up to second in the table, shows some disconcerting trends. Counting this game, we’ve allowed an average of 13 shots per game by opponents, but conceded just one goal. On the offensive side, we’ve scored 4 goals on a meager 6 shots on target. I know what you’re thinking – these trends are unsustainable and Aston Villa is heading for a harsh reality check in the near future. But the real secret to the team was unwittingly announced during this game. When newly acquired defender Philippe Senderos flat out tripped Mario Balotelli and got away with it (seen in this week's Youtubeable Moment), Graeme Le Saux mentioned that “We've just witnessed the dark arts of defending.” There can only be one possible explanation….

With He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named working behind the scenes, expect to see a lot more shots from opponents hit the woodwork and shots from Villans magically find their way into the back of the net. Having already earned 3 points from their tough five match stretch, even 4 straight losses wouldn’t put that much of a damper on this bright start.


The weekend kicked off with the highlight match between Arsenal and Manchester City. Arsenal came ready to play and looked like a league winning side for the first 25 minutes – except they couldn’t score. New loanee Danny Welbeck was gifted a chance from inside the box on a poor City back pass, but his chip hit the post. When City scored in the 28th minute off some slow defending, it felt like a classic Gunners storyline taking shape. But they came out strong in the second half and scored two excellent goals to take the lead, including Alexis Sanchez's excellent volley. City mounted a furious rally, equalizing in the 83rd minute and nearly taking the lead twice afterwards, but eventually settled for what feels like a well-deserved draw for both sides.

Tottenham were also close to securing 3 points until an own goal miscue cost them the 3 points. Spurs scored within the opening 3 minutes of each half – the first through Chadli on a clinical finish from a rebound and the second through Eriksen on an anything but clinical finish through another rebound. Adam Johnson got Sunderland level in the 4th minute as he dribbled past what felt like the entire Spurs team and had his shot sneak through everyone. Like Arsenal in the morning, Spurs could not hold on and gifted the Black Cats another equalizer in the 82nd minute that felt very undeserved. Tottenham looked the better side and had many threatening opportunities but had to settle for just a point on the road.

I’ll let the boss cover the……um……unpleasantness of one of the 4-0 matches:

Southampton 4 Newcastle 0 (barf)

Don't feel like saying too much about the match itself, except that the score is a very fair result.  Only Colback, Haidara and maybe Janmaat and Krul had anything close to a decent performance (ed note:except when Krul punched that guy in the face; let's not bicker and argue about who killed who).  The central defense was uncoordinated and the offense anemic.  I've said too much already.

But, while most on Tyneside will say the glass is 15/16ths empty, I will see the glass as 1/16th full.  Yes the Magpies sit at the bottom of the table with just two points in four games. I suggest that even if things were going well, they'd still have just four, maybe five points by now.  Man City was always going to be a loss and a draw at Aston Villa was not unexpected (btw, Newcastle is the only side not to lose to the Villans so far); Crystal Palace at home was probably projected as a win so there's an extra two points and maybe you could see a draw at Southampton though I wouldn't have put money on it.  Yes, the team has not gelled so far but given the influx of new players, we had every reason to expect some problems out of the gate.  De Jong's injury has not helped.  Yes, the Southampton outing was atrocious, but the effort in the other matches was at least determined and competitive.

I'm not saying this is right but my guess is that anything less than a win on Saturday at home versus Hull City is the end of the road for Alan Pardew.  Five games doesn't seem like much of a sample to see if this team can get its act together. Part of the frustration stems from the poor finish to last season but I would argue that is irrelevant to the discussion.  Their best player (Cabaye) was sold and not replaced and their most important scorer (Remy) was hurt or suspended for much of the second half.  This is simply a different team and last year doesn't matter.  What does matter is the question of whether we're seeing a team that is slow to gel or signs that the new players aren't as good as projected and/or management didn't go far enough in the rebuilding.  Let us remember that constant personnel turnover is not a bug but a design feature of this franchise right now. The approach is to sign talent cheap then sell when it gets too expensive.  It's not about winning, it's about staying in the first division. To decide that you know the answer and the manager is responsible after five games seems silly to me.  If there was reason to believe that sacking Pardew now would improve the likelihood that we would avoid relegation, I might be inclined to support the move.  But right now, the only thing I see improving our chances of staying up is a January transfer window that addresses the central defense and the finishing capabilities.


The other 4-0 drubbing belonged to newly rebuilt Manchester United, whose transfer signings showed up all over the pitch against a completely overmatched QPR side. Di Maria got things started in the 24th minute with a free kick that was both a pass and shot at the same time. If some else taps it in, it was a pass. If no one touches it and it goes in, it was a shot. Win-win. Ander Herrera kept the momentum going in the 36th minute with a 20 yard strike back across the goal. Old hat Wayne Rooney essentially ended the game in the 44th minute and Juan Mata added an easy insurance goal in the 58th. One dominating win does not cure all ills, but it might get them back on the right track. They obviously have the talent, but we’ll have to wait and see how it all mixes together.


The remaining games played out in mostly unsurprising fashion with Leicester and Everton picking up their first wins of the season at the expense of Stoke and West Brom respectively. Crystal palace and Burnley played a goalless draw to keep them tied at the edge of the relegation zone while West Ham and Hull played a more entertaining 2-2 draw to keep both of those sides in the currently crowded mid-table.

Looking forward to this weekend, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of excitement to go around until the very last game of the weekend: Chelsea visit the Etihad.  The next most interesting game is probably Aston Villa hosting Arsenal, which is bizarre.  Even more bizarre is that even if Villa lose, they remain ahead of Arsenal in the table.  What strange times we live in.  Manchester United try to stick to their winning ways against lowly Leichester, Tottenham hope to put away the struggling West Brom, while Swansea and Southampton battle for those speculative, early season Champions League spots.  A slew of mid-table versus mid-table fixtures round out another weekend of our favorite past time.  Don't forget Newcastle - Hull City at 10 am Saturday, where the visitor's strategy will likely be to get the St. James' Park crowd to turn on their manager and team.

Hey old guy, what's doing with the Union?

Join and Get Soaking Wet

The drenching Saturday afternoon rains pushed the start of the crucial Union-Red Bulls match back more than an hour.  For those of us drving, that meant we would miss the last 15 minutes (and it would have been worse had I not set the TV to record an extra 30 minutes).  Still my fate was probably better than that of loyal season ticket holders like Jeff K, Jeff H and Muscoe M, who had to wait in spacious (cough, cough) confines of the PPL concourse or sit outside and get soaked.  The match itself brought back memories of the US - Costa Rica snowbowl as the ball would sometimes simply stop moving as it hit a puddle. It will not be remembered as the highest quality football seen in these parts.  What will be remembered is that the Union rallied from an 0-2 deficit to salvage a draw which will keep them in the playoff picture.  Getting one point was likely less important than the Red Bulls not getting three.  I was fine with both PK calls.  White's transgression looked pretty clear to me; recall this blog's advice: if you don't want to get called, keep your hands off the attacker's upper body.  The Ribeiro call was tough but I thought he was kicked.

On Tuesday night many of this blog's readers were at PPL Park in Chester to witness the US Open Cup Final between the Union and Seattle.  The Sounders were more technically proficient but the Union work rate - especially Le Toux, Wenger, Noguiera and Gaddis - was critical in negating that advantage.  Seattle had some early chances but Edu's header goal off a Maidana corner in the 38th minute was not against the run of play.  Unfortunately the lead was shortlived as the Union surrendered a goal early in the second half.  Both sides had times of ascendancy but neither could score in regulation time.  For the Union there was Ribeiro's shot in the 88th minute stopped by Sounder's keeper Frei; the attempt needed more pace and/or to be aimed more at the near post.  Then Noguiera hit the post in stoppage time.  Of course we were going to rue those missed chances.  Sure enough, Dempsey put Seattle up in the 101st minute working a tidy give-and-go with Martins.  Martins later sealed the win with a goal in the second overtime period.  Our group felt MacMath was largely culpable in both instances, not protecting the near post on the first and making a poor decision to come out on the second.

The final score is misleading and the disappointment real given those late misses.  However, the overall experience was electric, even with less than a sellout crowd at PPL Park.


Champions League, Europa League and La Liga

We are well aware that other action is going on all around us but with a full-time staff of none, we can't keep track of it all.  Heard something about Atletico beating Real Madrid.  Also, as of Thursday, Bob K's Sheffield Wednesday is tied with Derby on points but is two behind in goal differential.

The Glass Ceiling

It's early September and the EPL still has that new season smell.  The table looks a little weird - Aston Villa is 3rd while Everton sits in 17th - and there's plenty of hope to go around.  Ah, but history says we know pretty much where things will end up and it's the same players every time.

I looked at each EPL season going back to 1995-96 - when the league dropped from 22 to 20 teams - and recorded where each club finished.  The results, while not surprising, suggest that the Champions League spots, i.e. the top four places, have historically been the domain of just four teams.  Those four are - all together class - Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool.  Manchester City is having a great run but has a ways to go to catch up to those four. 

Only four teams have won the league since 95-96 - Manchester United (11 times), Arsenal and Chelsea (three times each) and Manchester City (twice).  Though not directly comparable because the EPL has just 20 teams and the title is not a playoff, in the last 19 years there have been 10 different World Series winners and 12 different Super Bowl winners.

But for me the bigger story is how little variation there is in the top four places.  Since 95-96, just 10 teams have made it to that rarefied air.  You can probably name some of them; the list includes the five I've already mentioned plus Tottenham, Everton, Leeds United, Newcastle and Aston Villa.  Sadly yes, Dennis and I have both picked teams with not-too-long-ago stretches of quality football.  But wait, even though 10 teams have made it to that level, how often is it a side other than Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea or Liverpool?  Not too frequently.  Of the 76 top four places up for grabs since 95-96 (19 seasons x 4 places), 61, or 80%, have gone to the Axis of Evil clubs, leaving just 15 for the rest of us.  Adding Manchester City gets that figure to 65, or 86%.

This concentration is the result, I believe, of two keys aspects of the structure of English football.  First, there is no draft.  The best young unsigned players are free to sign with any club.  They typically start with the club's youth academy and, if good enough, work their way to the reserve squad and eventually the first team.  Not that I have done a comprehensive study but it seems to me this stacks the deck in favor of the top clubs right from the start.  A low finish doesn't get you a high draft pick, it just makes it more likely that a youth prospect is going to sign with somebody else.

The second aspect is that most of the player movement from team-to-team is on a cash basis.  That is, there aren't a lot of trades like we see in American sports; instead the rights to sign a player are bought and sold for cash.  In the American model, Team A needs a striker but has too many keepers while Team B needs a keeper but has an extra striker so they arrange a trade.  That works well sometimes but how often is the team you're looking to trade with interested in any of your players?  In the EPL model, Team A just looks for teams that are will to part with a striker; assuming they can agree on the transfer fee, the deal can be done even if Team A has no one of interest to Team B.  On the one hand, this seems like a much more efficient market to me; player movement is easier.  But again, it seems like it favors the rich teams, who are more likely to have the cash to acquire the players they need than the less well-off teams, whose assets are mostly in the form of the players themselves as opposed to cash on the balance sheet.  I suppose a lower tier side can do a great job scouting to find players overlooked by the others; when those players become too expensive to retain, they can sell them and plow the cash back into new players.  In some ways, I guess that's no different than the baseball team that, hopelessly out the race in August, trades their ace pitcher for a raft of prospects.  Still seems like the advantage goes to the big money clubs to me.

Some additional random facts.  In the 19 years studied, 44 teams have competed in the EPL. Seven sides have not been relegated in that time - Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Man United, and Tottenham.  Things seem a bit more open below 6th place; 19 have been as high as 7th place, 26 have reached 8th place, 30 have been in the top nine at least once, and 31 have finished at least as high as 10th.


Vincete aut perite

That's my attempt at altering the Union motto - jungite aut perite (Join or Perish) - to win or perish.  My last exposure to Latin was sophomore year of high school so my conjugation skills are a bit rusty.  Anyway, my point is that it's crunch time for the Union and even draws won't cut it now.  Fortunately, they have been up to the task.  After a 1-0 win over Toronto FC at home they went up north and played even better, besting Toronto 2-0.  This was possibly the best 90 minutes of the Union season.  Great to have Maidana and Noguiera in the line up at the same time.  Edu continues to anchor an improved back line.  There weren't too many moments when the Union were not firmly in control of this match.

Unfortunately, most of the other sides did what they needed to as well.  The Red Bulls pulled a mild upset over suddenly struggling Sporting KC, Columbus and Houston got expected wins over Chivas and Montreal, and New England beat Chicago.  The spread from 3rd to 9th is a little bigger but still pretty tight.  The Union sit in 5th right now but New York and Toronto have a game in hand.  The weekend is full of more critical matches, probably none bigger than the Red Bulls coming to Chester to face the Union at 3 pm on Saturday.  Houston and Columbus plus Chicago and Toronto are important too; New England really should be able to hand Montreal and solidify their hold on third.


Chester Blues

Good news on the cyber pitch, less positive off.  We stole three points at Hull City despite being outshot 15-3 and outpossessed 55%-45%.  A late goal off a corner by Ronan Gallagher was the difference.  In the lower leagues, I tended to ignore my scouts when they said the upcoming opponent did well against a 4-4-2 formation; I figured we were just a better side.  Not so in the EPL.  I've used a 4-1-2-1-2 and a 4-1-3-2 so far and am paying strict attention to the scouting reports about formations.

The bad news is that another player, Gaetano Hoffman, a young Swiss striker has also said he is having trouble settling into the Chester.  What is it about the city?  No night life?  I've never been to Chester so I can't say but this is an annoying trend.


The EPL Lineup

The weekend gets off to a great start with Arsenal hosting Man City, both looking to return to form after last week's disappointing outings.  Then we have first playing second as Swansea City travels to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea.  Aston Villa gets another prime time TV showing as they take on Liverpool.  Tottenham and Everton have every hope of getting past their recent losses as they take on Sunderland and West Brom.  Man United host Queens Park Rangers, setting up another one of those [insert team here] hasn't won at Old Trafford since [insert year here].  And my beloved Magpies go way south to take on Southampton; not holding my breath for anything positive out of this road trip.

Probably won't get to see a lot of these - or the Union - live so if you happen to watch some of these, jot down a few notes and put them in next week's comments.

A Good Transfer Window Shot to Hell

Me: Did you see who Man United signed?

Michael B: Yeah, Falcao and Blind

Me: Did you see who Newcastle signed?

Michael B: Uh?

Me: Right, nobody

Despite the late outburst versus Crystal Palace, it was pretty clear that the Magpies needed a more consistent scorer up top and maybe a center back for some depth for the back line.  They got neither.  And Ben Arfa is gone to Hull on loan, and Yanga-Mbiwa is out on loan to Roma.   This seems very risky.  A few things don't go right and Newcastle could find themselves looking over their shoulder at the relegation zone coming up fast in their rear view mirror.  And after all that work to get 80% of the way to a solid club. 

The quiet end to the transfer window was a perfect exclamation point to Saturday's disappointing match against Crystal Palace. Thirty seconds in, we were down 1-0 on a rebound from Marouane Chamakh, which is apparently Arabic for I can't find a good hairstylist in London (see right).  Daryl Janmaat tied the game in the 37th minute with a shot from the scrum that eeked its way in.  The good feeling lasted only until the 48th minute when Puncheon put Crystal Palace up again.  A voice in the back of my head said we can still win this match 3-2.  What I didn't hear was the voice even farther back in my head which whispered, yeah but we won't.  The Magpies were stirred by the appearance of 18 year-old Rolando Aarons, who tied the match at 73 minutes.  Then, just as I had said, Mike Williamson put Newcastle up with his first-ever EPL goal in the 88th minute.  Ah but the deeper inner voice was ultimately correct as Zaha took advantage of sloppy defending to square the match in the 95th minute.  Ironically, the reason for seven minutes of stoppage time was all the time-wasting by Crystal Palace while they were protecting their 2-1 lead.  The neutral will say it was a fair result and I am forced to agree.  In fact, I think this is match we would have lost last year.  Still, a tie with Crystal Palace is not like kissing Rebecca Lowe.


Things were much better in Birmingham for my blogmate.  Dennis reports:
Aston Villa showed a slight recession towards last season's form in nearly giving away a very deserved 3 points.  They outplayed a tired looking Hull in every aspect for 75 minutes, scoring two very clinical goals off of turnovers.  An own goal got my nerves back on edge for 20 minutes and ruined the goal of a season-long clean sheet, but the Villans defense once again prevailed.  Recently promoted to the first team, Jack Grealish showed a lot of poise, creativity, and ability to draw yellow cards.  On his first three touches after coming on as a late sub, the Hull player defending him was awarded a yellow for a foul.  He also is the only player on the team whose hair is even close to world class (not that he faces much competition since most of the team has no hair at all). With 7 points through 3 games, Villa sit in 3rd but are facing a very tough next 5 matches. I will be pleased if they manage 1 point out of the possible 15, though that puts us pace for a relegation-avoiding 38 for the season. New signing Tom Cleverley should help shore up an energetic but inconsistent midfield as Villa try to maintain some of this early season success.

Hmm...Grealish may be a sort of reverse Midas Man - everything that touches him turns to yellow.

Dennis was the only one to get a satisfactory result this weekend.  At the worse end of the spectrum were Everton (a 3-6 loser at home to Chelsea) and Tottenham (down 0-3 to Liverpool, also at home).  Everton fans may feel hard done by some uncalled offsides on the first two Chelsea goals but the first was really close and the Toffees benefited from a non-call themselves when Tim Howard handled the ball clearly outside the box.  There was some discussion as to whether Howard should have been sent off for denying an obvious goalscoring opportunity - that is, assuming either Jon Moss or his assistant had decided the play was outside the box.  My read of Advice to the Referees, Section 12.37 suggests it is not a red card as the referee is instructed to decide whether in his opinion "the ball would have likely gone directly in the goal but for the handling."  I think the ball would have bounced off Howard's body if he hadn't caught it.  Maybe a yellow for interfering or impeding with an opponent's attacking play by deliberate handling.  Howard later got a yellow for confronting Costa, after he taunted Coleman for an own goal.  A wild match all around that featured five goals in 11 minutes.  After that performance you can see why Chelsea felt the need to add Loic Remy to boost their scoring.  Right.  Tottenham-Liverpool was nowhere near as entertaining; the Spurs never really got untracked.

Not as disastrous but disappointing nonetheless for their fans were the 0-0 draw between Man United and Burnley and Arsenal's 1-1 draw with Leicester.  These powerhouses clearly would have looked for more against the newly promoted sides, even on the road.  Arsenal was without Giroud but will have Danny Welbeck next time out.  Other matches of note: Stoke hung a 1-0 loss on Manchester City, at the Etihad no less and Swansea remained undefeated by thrashing West Brom 3-0; Sigurdsson picked up three more assists.

Yaya Toure picked up the third BFS of the year.  We're on pace for 38 so the competition for BFS of the Year could be tight.  Don't forget to check out Dennis's ratings in the upper right hand corner of the blog.


Talking Union

Their play, though not great was good enough to earn a 1-0 win over struggling Toronto.  The Union had the run of the play for most of the match but couldn't beat TFC keeper Joe Bendik until the 55th minute; Maidana put the ball into space down the right side, LeToux ran it down, dribbled deep, then placed a perfect cross to Casey, who one-timed it into the net.  Simple, elegant and totally YouTubeable.  The win still leaves them in 6th based on MLS tiebreakers - most wins, then goal differential - but they are in the hunt.  A second match with Toronto this Saturday gives them the chance to play a team in turmoil.

New England got two wins to move into 3rd, and Chicago stayed in the chase with a 1-0 win over Dallas, while Columbus fell to Montreal 0-2 and the Red Bulls went down 0-2 against DC United.  Eight points separate 3rd through 9th and just five points separate 4th through 9th.  With just eight or nine games to go, everything seems wide open.


International Break

No EPL this weekend but all the MLS playoff contenders from the East are active.  Besides the Toronto-Union match, there's the Red Bulls hosting Sporting KC, Houston home against Montreal,  Chicago at New England and Columbus hosting Chivas.  The standings could easily be much different by the time Monday rolls around.

I'll use the light schedule to put up a post early next week on the recent history of how clubs finish in the EPL standings.  Hint: the top four spots don't often go to clubs named Newcastle or Aston Villa.  Speaking of international breaks, I will be traveling for a conference - the National Association of Organizations That Do What My Agency Does - and probably won't catch too many games the weekend of 9/13-14.  But you'll be in the capable hands of Dennis.

Also, you La Liga guys like Miguel and Roberto feel free to keep us up to date on happenings there.  I understand Atletico's manager got himself suspended.

Another also - Bob K is somehow involved in some kind of wager where Sheffield Wednesday has to finish above Derby County in the Championship (2nd) Division. Through five matches they are even but Derby leads on goal differential.  And what's this? Recently relegated Fulham sits in 23rd with just one point in five matches; could be a long road back to the Premiership.

Didn't Anybody Know That Was A Derby?

Other than being shown live, everything else about Saturday's Aston Villa - Newcastle match proved that nobody but us knew it was a derby.  We got a second tier, although highly entertaining and brutally honest, announcing team.   Villa Park was less than 75% full.  What's up with that?  Even if not a true derby, it was Aston Villa's home opener.  And finally, neither side brought much urgency to the pitch. The Villans managed nary a shot on target; Newcastle got six on frame but they could have had more had they not completely whiffed on several others.  In the end, we were left with a 0-0 draw, which allowed Aston Villa to sit atop the table for a full 2 hours and 15 minutes.  You get the feeling they could have played all day without scoring.

On the Newcastle side, Colback and Janmaat continued to impress, Riviere not so much, though the problem may rest more with the formation than the player.  It's not clear that the lone striker approach is going to work for the Magpies.  De Jong made his debut, as a late sub, and created one of the game's best chances.  We had every reason to think we'd have just one point after the first two games so there's no real reason for distress, other than the fact that they've yet to score.  Update - they got their first goal in a 1-0 League Cup win over Gillingham so it's o...what's that?  It was an own goal?  Whatever, we'll take it.

Dennis provides the Aston Villa perspective:

Pretty much the same performance against Newcastle as against Stoke, with one fewer shot on goal.  Stout defense, a weak attack, and 4 more yellows (on pace for 133).  The defense is definitely from a different planet this season, but has a disturbing habit of blocking shots with less than desirable body parts which might catch up to them at some point.  Williamson's second yellow for Newcastle came a little too late to have any real impact and playing up a man for an extended time was likely the Villans best chance to earn 3 points.  However, 4 points through two games is a more than satisfactory start to the campaign.

Quite a mixed bag of results for our regulars.  Tottenham thoroughly trashed Queen's Park Rangers at White Hart Lane 4-0.  Poor Harry Redknapp, QPR manager.  Check out his sad visage just two matches into the season.  Conflicting rumors have him either being replaced by Tim Sherwood or getting a contract extension.


Arsenal's late rally to tie Everton 2-2 likely left the Gunners fans happy and the Toffee supporters wondering if they're snakebit this year.  Manchester United's 1-1 draw with Sunderland was probably unacceptable to their fans;  the 0-4 loss to third division MK Dons in the League Cup on Tuesday must have alarm bells ringing all over the place.  I had looked forward to a slightly more competitive Man City - Liverpool contest but the Citizens were pretty much in total control taking a 3-1 win at home.  Other notable items include another assist for Chester Blue Gylfi Sigurdsson in Swansea's 1-0 win over Burnley and Chelsea's comfortable 2-0 win over Leicester.


Reinforcements Are On the Way

The transfer window has a few days left and two squads have made splashy signings.  Liverpool have signed Mario Volatelli Balotelli to add scoring punch and provide EPL sportswriters with a possibly unending set of story lines.  Most would argue that Rogers is playing with fire here but he has obviously decided they needed a more mercurial presence up top.  And Man United have signed Angel Di Maria for a transfer fee equal to the GNP of Liechtenstein or something close to it.  Di Maria is no doubt a great talent but some are wondering whether his addition solves the Red Devils problems.  Everton have added the aging but quite serviceable Samuel Eto'o.  Arsenal, which are now looking at five months without Na na na na-ne-na-na na-ne-na-na Giroud, are likely to sign Edinson Cavani.  And Newcastle supposedly continue to seek a striker and the names we hear are Remy and Lacazette, who have both reportedly spurned previous advances from the Magpies.


Who Are Those Guys?

Ultimately a very un-Union like performance on Sunday night against San Jose.  Not too surprised when the Union went up 2-0 in the first half.  Definitely not surprised when they surrendered two goals to the Quakes in the second half.  Oh sure, Chris Wondolowski, miss the volley from the right hand side vs Belgium but make it against the Union (okay not really fair but I'm not bitter at all).  Then, incredibly, the Union respond with two of their own.  Andrew Wenger has had a decent but quiet season, giving little indication of goal scoring potential, but he put up two of the season's best on Sunday. We'll make his first this week's YouTubeable Moment. Sure it was San Jose, sure it was home but just as surely this was an important victory. They next face Toronto twice in three days; those two matches will go a long way in determining whether the Union are players in the final months of the season.

The Red Bulls handled Montreal but both New England and Columbus won as well and Toronto got a draw so the playoff race is still jammed.


The Weekend

It's back to live streaming for me and Dennis.  Aston Villa host Hull City; this really should be three for the Villans but their offense and record at home could interfere.  Newcastle have Crystal Palace at St. James' Park; see everything I just said about Aston Villa.  CP are looking for their first points, Newcastle for their first goal; no wonder this didn't make the live TV schedule.

For those with more mainstream allegiances, matches will be available on NBCSN or NBC.  Two tasty looking fixtures are Everton hosting Chelsea (Saturday at 12:30) and Tottenham vs Liverpool at White Hart Lane (Sunday at 8:30 am).   Everton fans might be happy with a third straight 2-2 result, even at home.  The Spurs will have their hands full with Liverpool; this is a chance to see how realistic a top four finish for them might be.  Man United are a heavy favorite making their trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley and presumably will be looking to put the League Cup disaster behind them.  Man City have every reason to expect three points when Stoke come to the Etihad.  Leicester must be wondering what they ever did to the schedule makers.  Their reward for returning to the EPL was opening matches against Everton, Chelsea and Arsenal on consecutive weekends; Arsenal are the favorite but the Foxes haven't been that easy a mark so far.


I close by noting that I just got my first reffing assignments since tearing my hamstring last November.  Excited to be back and hoping the body holds together.  

One Down, 37 To Go

Entertaining opening weekend, if I don't get too hung up about results.


Lots of Industry Not Enough Inspiration

That was how one of the announcers described Newcastle's performance in the 0-2 loss at home to Manchester City.  I think that's about right.  Recall that I had low expectations for a result and was more interested in how the Magpies played.  Though outplayed in the first half, they performed gamely, refusing to be "outphysicaled" (hey I got the word from an English teacher so it must be legit) by a much bigger side.  But eventually the Citizens broke through on a clever pass from Dzeko that Silva slotted past Krul.  The second half was better for the home side and they came agonizingly close several times, most notably when Sissoko missed from the top of the box in the 83rd minute.  Aguero added an insurance goal in stoppage time to make the final score look a bit more comfortable than it really was.  Though the victory was earned, the result could as easily been 1-1.

High marks for the Magpies in most areas except one - finishing.  Their work rate, to a man, was excellent.  A lot of possession and creative play to get the ball into the final third.  Alas, that was where things broke down.  They could not find the killer pass or the strike to convert the effort into a goal.  High marks for Cabella; he was unafraid to possess the ball in a crowd, which means we may not have to depend on long balls so much this year.  Colback and Janmaat were also excellent in their debuts.  The jury is still out for me on striker Riviere.  We also did not get to see midfielder de Jong, who was out with an injury.

Another Opening Day Upset for Aston Villa

Uh-oh - the Villans may have discovered that a well-organized defense doesn't require them to pull back into a shell.  This could spell trouble for all the other mid-table teams out there.  They looked solid in a 1-0 road win over Stoke.  Vlaar is a known quantity on defense but Senderos impressed as well.  Dennis adds:

This is probably a case of misplaced optimism so early in the season and after only beating a mid-table team 1-0, but this match felt completely different than a typical AV match from last season (aside from already picking up 3 yellows) .  The offense felt similar to last year with a little energy added, but the defense felt like a transplant from another team. They were calm, composed, and organized on nearly every Stoke attack, though Guzan made some uncharacteristically sloppy plays.  It appears that some "veteran presence" did wonders, despite the term usually referring to old guys that can't play anymore.  If the defense can be this stout against other teams and the offence can remain at least average until Benteke returns, the Villans might be able to secure safety well before the last weeks of the season.   


Around the League

There were several matches that caught this viewer's eye.  Foremost was probably the wide open, flowing match between Liverpool and Southampton.  Despite losing many key elements from last year, the Saints still play an appealing brand of football - at least on this Sunday they did anyway.  Clyne's goal on a sweet back heel pass from Tadic is my choice for this week's YouTubeable Moment.  But Liverpool had some good moments of their own to take away a 2-1 win.

Though the joy was short-lived, you had to share the excitement of the fans at Turf Moor, the home park of newly promoted Burnley, after midfielder Scott Arfield had given his side an early lead against Chelsea.  Quality will out and Chelsea rolled to a 3-1 win but the moment was still special.  And add Turf Moor to the list of awesome names for home parks.  As a bonus, the match also featured the first BFS of the season.   I thought it could have been anything from a red card for DOGSO to a no call to a yellow for simulation so I awaited with bated breath Dennis's analysis of Diego Costa's "dive."

Luke and Michael P (Arsenal 2-1 over Crystal Palace) have nothing to complain about, except for maybe Alexis Sanchez's folded shorts, which is not a wardrobe malfunction but a quirkly habit of the Chilean. Michael B seemed happy enough about Tottenham's
stoppage time goal to steal three points on the road against West Ham.  Jeff K, a relatively quiet Everton fan, probably wasn't thrilled by Leicester's tying goal in the 86th minute, but what I saw of the match was entertaining.  And what to do about Man U?  The story line last year from Old Trafford was always about how that was the first victory for [insert side name here] since WWII.  But this year was going to be different with Louis van Gaal at the helm.  Except maybe not as Swansea City got its first win ever at the venerable park.  An assist and a goal by Chester Blue Gylfi Sigurdsson sank the Red Devils.  Another year that will test Jeff H's patience?  Check out this Grantland article that assesses which EPL sides should be worried after one whole week of play.


Union Busting

My heart is not into reporting on this disappointing 0-1 road loss to the Houston Dynamo.  Quite demoralizing.  It's not that they were awful.  In fact, I thought they played a little better than in the win over Montreal.  Just left me with serious doubts as to whether this team is good enough to challenge for a playoff spot.  The only encouraging news from this match for me was the relatively strong MLS debut by rookie keeper Andre Blake.  He did make some poor decisions as you would expect a young keeper to do but he also displayed incredible athleticism.  I would prefer the Union keep him and see if MacMath can fetch something in the trade market.


Chester Splits

We didn't get thrashed by Everton.  Didn't get a result either, falling to the Toffees in our first trip to Goodison Park 0-1.   Possession was 39-61 and shots were 2-22 so maybe it wasn't as close as the score suggests.  We fared better back home, defeating West Ham 3-1 in a match where we were slight underdogs.  Took a beating though as three starters picked up injuries that will have them out between 8 days and 3 weeks.  Next match is Hull City.


Secret Derby

This weekend features the derby that is known only to readers of this blog; this Saturday's Aston Villa - Newcastle match will be the second Fillebrown Derby.  With the season so young, it's hard to get much trash talking going.  I will say that Newcastle has much better hair than Aston Villa but it appears the oddsmakers are not swayed; the Villans go in slight favorites, probably based on the home field advantage.  Last time out these two sides played competitive if not quality soccer; off of their opening day performances we have some hope of seeing a decent match.  They were both impressive from goal line to 18, not so much inside the opponents' 18.  Perhaps we might see that seemingly oxymoronic combination of exciting but scoreless soccer.  Dennis adds his reverse trash talking, displaying confidence typical of an AV fan:

Newcastle looked stronger against City than AV did against Stoke.  And I think we can all agree that Stoke is no Manchester City.  Combining that fact with already having a win this season and playing at home where they were atrocious last season, I do not have high hopes for Villa in this match.  I will take this time to note that AV is 6th in the table, while Newcastle sit at 20th, so my team is better by at least one theoretical measure.  Since I expect the Villans to be soundly beaten this weekend, I'll grasp at whatever straws I can reach.      


Some good stuff from the schedule makers this early in the season.  Everton will host Arsenal. and Man City plays Liverpool at the Etihad;  both should be good matches.  Tottenham really shouldn't be tested by QPR at White Hart Lane.  Not sure what to make of Man United at Sunderland; the Red Devils are heavy favorites and that seems right but they couldn't beat Swansea City at home so who knows.  Chelsea gets to host Leicester and has every expectation of an easy win.

On the MLS side, the Union host San Jose, one of the weaker Western Division squads.  With 10 games to go and just 7 points separating 3rd through 9th, every match is important.  But they'll need to play better than the last two times out.  The Red Bulls host the dreadful Montreal Impact, which should give them a chance to solidify their playoff credentials.

It Is Now Post Time

The horses are on the track...

It's been a long 30+ days since the end of the World Cup.  We've had to subsist on crumbs from a light MLS schedule and some let's-take-money-from-the-Yankees-for-preseason-games-by-calling-it-a-cup tournaments.  But that comes to an end Saturday morning when Manchester United hosts Swansea City in the opening match of the 2014-15 EPL season.  A full slate of games follows that 7:45 am opener covering Saturday and Sunday, with six matches on NBCSN or NBC.  And the MLS schedule gets more consistent as they move into the last part of their season.  La Liga people tell me that the Spanish season will start a week from Saturday.  Better erase unneeded shows from your dvrs.

Newcastle again gets to open against Manchester City.  Hopefully we will see something better than last year's 0-4 thrashing in which Steven Taylor was sent off.  There are many reasons to be optimistic this season - at least for a mid-table finish - but this Sunday I'll be more interested in how the Magpies play than the final score.  Aston Villa opens on the road at Stoke. There's some buzz about the Potters possibly being a surprise team but even if they're not, this is a tough match for the Villans; maybe they'll surprise like last year when they beat Arsenal on opening day.

Other sides of interest, at least to our regulars, have brighter prospects for a result.  Everton is at Leicester,  Arsenal hosts Crystal Palace and Tottenham is at West Ham.  A popular common pick to win the EPL, Chelsea, will travel to newly promoted Burnley.  Liverpool, who many think will struggle to stay in the top 4, faces Southampton at Anfield.

Michael B pointed me to a great series by The Guardian on the prospects for each EPL team.  Here's the link: http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog+football/series/premier-league-2014-15-previews. Their consensus top four is Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, and Man United.  Fifth through seventh are Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton.  Newcastle is slotted 9th and Aston Villa 16th (ouch). 

And let's go over the only thing you really need to remember about viewing etiquette.  Before blurting out the score or even a key moment of any match, either verbally or cyberly, remember to ask: Are you current?


MacMath Giveth and Taketh Away

The Union have advanced to the final of the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup.  I confess to not following this competition closely at all, only vaguely aware that the Union had been making their way to the later rounds.  I ask for the court's indulgence, even the semi-final wasn't on any channel nor could you stream it live.   Poor man's FA Cup indeed.  Protecting a 1-0 lead late, MacMath came too far off his line and was burned for the tying goal.  Regular time ended in a draw, as did the 30 minutes of added extra time.  In the shootout, MacMath redeemed himself with two big saves, sending the team on to the September 16th final against Seattle at PPL Park.

That was their second win of the week.  On Saturday, they won the must-win contest against last place Montreal, 2-1.  Except the Union were awful.  The Impact is a bad team and they were without their leading scorer.  But the Union managed little offense; both goals were almost all luck.  Passes weren't just intercepted, they were often straight to the opposition.  They were unable to create any space, had little creativity and frankly looked tired.  LeToux wasn't at his best skillwise but his work rate was the reason the Union scored at all.  MacMath had a decent game and Valdes, in his first game back, put in a credible effort.  The win moved them into the last playoff spot but that did not look like a playoff team to me.  A congested schedule sees the Union traveling to Houston for a Friday match against the Dynamo; sure, it's a road game but Houston is below them in the standings so this is where we see if the Union is going to make a run or not.

Only saw the score of the match but Red Bull fans can't be too happy about an 0-1 loss at Chicago.  They maintain 4th place on the tie breaker.  But with as many as six teams vying for the last two playoff spots, nothing is secure at this point.


Coaching Genius

When picking players for the Chester Blues, I insist on a high rating for determination.  That was quite helpful in  the midweek League Cup game against 4th division Carlisle.  I sat most of the regulars to keep them fresh for Saturday's league match with Everton, believing the second team would be strong enough to handle a 4th division squad.  So Carlisle puts up two goals in the first seven minutes and I'm thinking I'm going to be roasted by the board and fans.  But teams with high determination tend not to be rattled playing from behind and sure enough, my guys came through with three goals before halftime and another two in the second half.  Still might get thrashed by Everton but at least we'll be rested.


All I'm Asking For Is 60% Effort 1000% of the Time

Ted Lasso may be back in the EPL.  We saw him last year during his brief, very brief, tenure at Tottenham, which is documented here.  After a short stint at NBCSN, he is apparently under consideration for the position at Leicester, even if he can't pronounce it properly.  Details here.


Good luck to your chosen side, unless of course your side is playing my chosen side, Newcastle.