And We're Off

Well that went well.  Sort of.

A Fair Point

In the immediate aftermath of Newcastle's 0-0 draw with Aston Villa, I thought the Magpies had maybe stolen a point.  Upon further review, the result looks right.They fairly well dominated play in the first half, created multiple chances but failed to score.  In other words, they looked like a team missing their leading scorer.  Villa manager Unai Emery must have figured something out at halftime because those chances became few and far between in the second half.  This was not a complete role reversal though as it wasn't like Villa piled up the scoring chances.  Konsa's red card at 66 minutes (deemed soft by both me and Dennis - Gordon sold it well) pretty much ended the excitement here.  Mildly annoying that though down a man, Aston Villa was the side that looked much more interested in getting all three points.

Tonali was a beast in the mid-field

On the silver linings side of the ledger, the defensive performance was outstanding.  Villa managed just three shots, all on target, and an xG of .3  Tonali bossed the midfield as they say while Burn and Schar were pretty much flawless at center back.  Before the match I would have gladly taken a draw in this one and even afterwards still feel that way.

Another Week in Purgatory

As of publication, there is still no resolution to the Alexander Isak stalemate.  Isak claims there were promises made about allowing him to move on while Newcastle officials contend they were very clear about what they might be able to do.  The NYT times offers a detailed update here; Mona Lisa Vito (cousin Vinny's fiancee') offers a much shorter summary here.  For those interested in an esoteric legal loophole that might benefit Isak, check out this article from ESPN.  My cursory read left me thinking it might work if Isak is willing to go outside the EPL but not so sure it works if Liverpool is his intended destination.  

Questions From Week One

- Based on the 4-2 win over Bournemouth featuring two goals from new transfer Hugo Ekitike, why the hell does Liverpool need Isak?

- Was that a Club World Cup hangover we saw from Chelsea in their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace?

- Did we really learn anything from Man City's and Spurs' easy wins over soft opposition (Wolves and Burnley respectively)?  BTW, Spurs - Burnley gives us this week's YouTubeableMoment, a quality cross from Kudus and an even better finish from Richarlison.

- Are Man United, who fell 0-1 to Arsenal despite playing pretty well, headed for another disappointing season?

- Does the 0-3 loss to Sunderland mean West Ham really are relegation fodder?

- Same question for Everton after a 0-1 loss to Leeds?

Wood on his way to a second goal
Photo:Bradley Collyer / AP

- Does Chris Wood's brace against Brentford mean he will again be a 20 goal scorer and maybe help
Nottingham Forest forget that Elanga doesn't play for them anymore? 

- Will there be anything to separate Brighton and Fulham by the end of the season or does their 1-1 draw mean they'll finish level on points?

  

This Week in Refereeing: It's DOGSO, Not DPGSO

Ekitike is a long way from goal (BBC photo)

The play generating the most attention was the no DOGSO call on Bournemouth defender Marcos Senesi.  I could not find a video of the play but the picture (left) gives you an idea of where the incident occurred.  The ball clearly hit Senesi in the hand coming off his thigh but as it bounded away from him, he took a swipe at it, touching it and keeping Ekitike from getting possession.  The argument is that Ekitike would have then taken the ball and gone in unchallenged.  VAR Michael Oliver reviewed the play and said there was no handling and it was too far from goal to be DOGSO anyway.  He clearly missed Senesi's swipe at the ball.   EPL sort of amended their explanation to say that even if the handball had been called, it would not have met the criteria for DOGSO.  I still think they got the call right even if they botched the explanation.  Dennis and I seem to be in the minority on this point. Ekitike was level with Senesi when the handling occurred and probably would have had a head start to the goal.  But Senesi, unburdened by the necessity to control the ball, has at least 40 yards to catch up.  This feels like a possible, not obvious, goal scoring opportunity.  That VAR Michael Oliver so quickly dismissed the accidental handball and didn't see the second, deliberate, handling was not good.  But I think even if he does, he will decide it's not DOGSO and therefore can't intervene.

Then we had the rarely called attacker within one meter of the defensive wall on a free kick. You can see that play here.  VAR went for the less subjective call on this one and opened up a can of worms.  VAR interventions on this call are extremely rare, possibly because this infraction occurs on almost every free kick.  As I watched the replay, I thought the VAR intervention would be about a foul on Guehi pushing Caicado to clear space for the kick.  Maybe the VAR thought he was on safer ground for the objective call of being within a meter as opposed to the subjective call of a foul he didn't signal for at the time.  I would have gone with the foul.

We finish with James Tarkowski's handling vs Leeds.  The official story is that "he leaned into the ball with his arm." You can sort of see the play here.  Hmm, looks to me like he leaned into the ball with his body, which coincidentally has an arm attached that was practically pinned at his side.  I suppose you could go with the view that this was close enough that the VAR shouldn't have intervened, which leaves it as just a questionable call on the field that shouldn't have been made.

It's Hard to Beat a Team Twice in One Week Three Times in a Season Fifteen Times in a Row

The Union's long unbeaten streak against the Red Bulls ended Saturday night with a 1-0 defeat in Harrison NJ.  While they maybe didn't deserve to lose, they certainly didn't deserve to win.  The U managed just one shot on target and that was Damiani's PK stopped by Coronel.  Though xG favors the Union (1.5-.9), when you adjust for the PK it's about even.  Adding injury to insult, Blake tweaked his suspect hamstring again and left the match after just 28 minutes.  Adding insult to injury, Blake's replacement A.J. Rick might have been somewhat at fault on the Red Bull goal, seen here.  Of course, we can also ask why was Nealis so wide open in the box.  

The loss dropped the U into second in the East and third in the Supporters Shield.  And Miami, just six points back, still have three matches in hand.  Advanced math says that could put them three ahead of the Union when they finally catch up.

Let's Do That Again 

I'll be away this week which means limited and/or distracted viewing.  The dance card is a mixed bag.  The two top fixtures for my money are Man City - Tottenham at 7:30 on Saturday (USA) and Newcastle - Liverpool at 3:00 pm on Monday USA).  Opta gives Spurs no chance against City (62% win, 19% draw) but I still want to see how this plays out.  I expect the St James' Park faithful will give Liverpool bloody hell for going after Isak in the first place.  Probably won't help the Magpies get a point though.

You can get a head start to the weekend with a London Derby between West Ham and Chelsea; that's Friday at 3 on USA.  The 10 am Saturday games don't exactly thrill, though Burnley - Sunderland is a good relegation battle preview.  Your other choices are Brentford - Aston Villa (the USA TV match)  or Bournemouth - Wolves.  The "feature" NBC 12:30 is Arsenal - Leeds; Opta has that at 70% win for Arsenal, 17% draw.  

Sunday's 9 am choices aren't awful as Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest (Peacock) should be competitive and Everton hosting Brighton (USA) might be close as well.  The 11:30 match is Fulham hosting Man United (USA).

Union get Chicago at home in a good chance to bounce back from the disappointment in New Jersey.

No guarantee of a post next week but we'll see how things play out.

It's Go Time

Going to get busy real fast.  Make sure your DVR is in good working order and clear off old files to free up memory.  Check streaming service subscriptions to ensure you still have access.  Let's do this thing.

The Summer of Our Discontent

This should have been the most anticipated EPL season for Newcastle in recent memory.  The early signing of the fleetfooted Elanga reinforced that feeling.  Since then it has degenerated into a bloody soap opera about the fate of Alexander Isak.  The striker's view has been I Gotta Get Out of This Place (apologies to The Animals) while Newcastle has been very much You Ain't Goin' Nowhere (apologies to Bob Dylan).  Isak says he will not play for Newcastle but the club also can't be forced to sell him.  As of publication, there is no resolution.  He definitely won't be playing in the season opener at Aston Villa.  So instead of hopes of challenging for more trophies this year, sixth to tenth seems like a more reasonable target.

Apparently, I am not alone in that view.  Courtesy of BFS Closet Manchester United Fan Jeff H, here is The Athletic's Premier League hope-o-meter, showing preseason fan sentiment for each club.  The chart below summarizes the results:

Yes, Newcastle are at the bottom by a wide margin.  Hmm, Chelsea fans must be feeling that Club World Cup Championships.  And what exactly is in the drinking water in Sunderland?

Predictions

Once again I collected a slew of predicted EPL tables from various sources.  The results are presented below.

Based on the average ranking we can see some clear divisions.

- The top four (Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea) 

- The upper mid-table (Newcastle, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Man United and Brighton

- The lower mid-table (Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Everton, Fulham and West Ham)

- The relegation challenged (Wolves, Brentford, Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley)

Only Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City get any votes for first.  Crystal Palace and Forest are the most enigmatic for our prognisticators as there is a spread of 10 places between their high and low predictions.  Nobody sees Burnley staying up.

There is no shortage of articles predicting the fortunes of each team.  I highly recommend the work of Four Four Two (available here).  Aside from excellent insights, they are not averse to humor and sarcasm.  They point out that "a limousine tyre" is an anagram of Youri Tielemans.  They have a section for each team labeled Lesson From Last Year.  For Man United it was simply:

Avoid losing every week.

Ouch, that'll leave a mark.

Conversation That Did Take Place But Was Rendered Moot By Subsequent Events

Dennis: With the acquisition of Callum Wilson, West Ham now have the two most fragile hamstrings in the EPL - Wilson and Antonio

Steve: Yeah we should call them the West Hamstrings, or Hammies for short

Antonio was released by WHU a few days later.  Probably a moved forced by their physios.

You can view the complete list of transfers to date by team here.  The summer window stays open until 7 pm on September 1st so there's still time for additional moves.

Sexism Or Not?

Saturday was no walk in Subaru Park for Tori Penso

Union fans gave referee Tori Penso plenty of grief for her calls on Saturday versus Toronto -especially the offside on Baribo that chalked off a goal.  Jeff K and I were torn between whether the fans were giving her a harder time because she was a woman or was the booing an indicator that she was getting equal treatment that any male referee would have received.  Probably some of both.  From my perspective, Penso did make some questionable foul calls but I didn't see anything worse than normal for MLS refereeing.  And, the offside call on Baribo was probably correct.

Baribo was in an offside position when Wagner struck the free kick.  If you think that Baribo's actions interfered with the defenders' ability to play the ball, then offside is the correct call.  Looking at the replay he doesn't touch the ball and I don't think you see him impede anybody's ability to play the ball.  On the other hand, he clearly moves with intent to play the ball in a crowded penalty area, giving the referee every reason to make the call.  Further, why would you stand in an offside position as the free kick is taken?  Your only choice to avoid the offside call is to stand still and wait to see what happens after the initial play.  

The post match attention on Penso's calls is misplaced as the source of the Union's problems was internal.  After a solid first 15 minutes, the rest of the match was full of mistakes.  They were too easily goaded into physical challenges that resulted in fouls, the passing was inaccurate and the finishing was terrible.  No, the Union earned this draw without any help from the referee.

On a positive note there was the Union goal, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  A sequence of great passes and a solid finish from Vasilev.  Take a second to admire the simple but astoundingly effective ball from Sullivan that keyed the final sequence of passes.  Yeah, at four minutes we looked golden.  Fortunately, we got tons of help on the out-of-town scoreboard.  Nashville lost to St. Louis, Cincinnati lost at home to Charlotte and Miami was pounded by Orlando.  Sometimes when you tie, you actually win.  

Dreams of the Triple

With a 3-2 come-from-behind win over Red Bulls in the US Open Cup quarterfinal, the Union are in the hunt for the "triple," which includes the Supporters' Shield (best overall record in MLS), the MLS Cup and the US Open Cup.  The fact that it still requires about a dozen clutch wins between now and November shouldn't dampen the excitement at all.

As expected, this was no easy night for the Union, despite their 15-match unbeaten streak against the Red Bulls.  First the match was delayed two hours by thunderstorms.  This would be a scrappy match, with 36 fouls (15 by the Union) and six yellow cards (two for the Union).  Red Bull defender Kyle Duncan got a yellow at 25 minutes, then ended up in a scrap with Union defender Makhanya; Duncan did not get a second yellow but RB coach Sandro Schwarz substituted for him at 35 minutes out of fear that he was out of control.

Easy peasy - Ilsoki gets the equalizer
 Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Red Bulls got an early goal, arguably against the run of play, to take the lead.  Baribo got that one back five minutes later.  Fast forward through another 45 minutes of chippy play before the Red Bulls again took the lead at 70 minutes.  Once again, the Union response was quick, as Baribo found Milan Iloski on the left side of the six and the newcomer calmly slotted the ball just inside the post.  With added extra time and the prospect of a midnight PK shootout looming, Olwethu Makhanya did everyone a favor by putting the rebound off a Wagner shot past keeper Marcucci; several have suggested that Marcucci needed to be stronger on his punch out on the play, which you can see here. The U held on through eight minutes of stoppage time to claim their berth in the semis, where they'll face Nashville.

The Agenda

Matchweek 1 is spread out nicely from Friday to Monday with a full range of tasty matchups, derbies and potential blowouts.  In the latter category is Friday's season opener with Liverpool hosting Bournemouth at 3 pm on USA, a tough assignment for the Cherries.

Saturday dawns with a BFS Derby as Aston Villa take on Newcastle at Villa Park (7:30 USA).  Neither side was likely pleased to see this as their opener but it is an especially tough away fixture for the Magpies.  Opta sees Villa as a solid home favorite here.

There are three choices of varying degrees of interest at 10 am.  The TV game is Brighton hosting Fulham, which could be a competitive fixture.  Sunderland vs West Ham doesn't sound all that appealing, though looking at those projections above, this could be an early look at relegation candidates.  I'm most interested in Tottenham - Burnley as we get our first look at Spurs under Thomas Frank; by all rights, this is a perfect opener for them, facing the newly promoted Clarets in the friendly confines (huge expanse?) of their London home.  

The feature NBC match doesn't look all that great with Wolves hosting Man City; hard to see that one being competitive. Also, that match may just be hard to see if you're in Philly as NBC will be covering the Eagles preason game; looks like it is on Telemundo and Peacock.

Three more fixtures on Sunday.  At 9 you can do either the London Derby with Chelsea - Crystal Palace (USA) or Nottingham Forest hosting Brentford (Peacock); the latter might be a good test for two sides that lost important pieces from last year's successful seasons.  We get a second feature NBC match at 11:30 and this one has more appeal - Man United vs Arsenal from Old Trafford.

We close out the matchweek with Leeds - Everton at 3 pm on USA; okay not the greatest but what else you gonna do on a scorching Monday afternoon?

In MLS play, the Union play the Red Bulls again, this time in New Jersey; that's Saturday night at 7:30 behind the Apple/MLS Season Pass double pay wall.  

The Dog Days of Summer

Not much to do for a few weeks except wonder if Newcastle will keep Alexander Isak.

Hoorah for Uhre

Minutes away from a disappointing 1-1 draw with visiting Colorado, Mikael Uhre found his scoring touch and poured in two goals in the match's closing moments.  The Union had run the Rapids ragged all night so a draw would have been a particularly galling outcome.  Possession (not the U's strong suit) was 60/40, shots were 30/5 and shots on target were 11/1.  The kicker was an xG of 4.8 - 1.

A productive Uhre would be a big help down the stretch
Picture: Philadelphia Union

After dominating the first half, they fell behind on Navarro's header rebound at 37 minutes.  Second half was more of the same until a Wagner cross found Baribo at the far post to level things at 64 minutes.  But really, a draw at home to Colorado would simply not have been good enough.  Fortunately Uhre, a 73rd minute sub, came on to work some magic.  For the first tally, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment, he simply pushed the ball with his right foot into an open area just inside the box, then slotted a left footed shot in off the far post; if you note just before he took the shot, there's a circle of five Rapids around him but none are in position to do anything about the shot.  For the second, he took a breakout pass from Bedoya (a late sub himself) and basically outran the defender to put a shot through the five hole.

With Nashville and Columbus losing while Cincinnati was getting a draw with Miami, the U creep back into the top spot. The fly in this ointment is that while Miami are eight points back in 5th place, they have three matches in hand.  Three time three is, well, you get the picture.

Hail Brittania

In the Euro Championship Final, England, as they are wont to do, fell behind Spain in the 25th minute.  You wouldn't say it was against the run of play.  However, the Lionesses are no slouches when it comes to defending and importantly kept the score at 1-0 through the first half.  Spain were still the better side in the second half but England did break through with the equalizer at 57 minutes.  Then, it was over an hour of goalless football.  This chart from Opta shows how Spain dominated play in those 60 minutes:

So Spain generated another 1.35 expected goals in the last hour of the match while England generated what looks like .04.  That Spain didn't win before PKs seems like a combination of shots not on target and a couple of solid saves from English keeper Hannah Hampton.  In the dreaded PK shootout, Spain got the jump and were up 1-0 before missing three straight (including two saves from Hampton) and England prevailed 3-1.  

Bronze Gets Gold

Lucy Bronze sports her gold while leading England's celebration
Photo:Eddie Keogh/Getty Images

We would be remiss if we did not point out the obvious.  Lucy Bronze is England's captain.  

A Week Off

A week of friendlies or pre-season or whatever you want to call them.The Union will play Eintracht Frankfurt (who feature ex-Union Paxten Aaronson).  Wait, why the break this week?  Well, we have the League Cup featuring sides from MLS and Liga MX, so the MLS regular season is on hold for week.  The U, by virtue of their low finish last season are spared this spectacle.

We will probably take off next week and return in time for the EPL kickoff on 8/15.

Summer "Break" Is Almost Here

Thin schedule but we'll catch up on a few EPL items.  We get a couple of quiet weeks before things ramp back up.  

There's Context and Then There's Context

The better Agyemang? Patrick might learn something from Michelle
Photo:Reuters

Both Euro Championship semis went to added extra time but neither made it to a penalty shoot out. England got a stoppage time goal from super sub Michelle Agyemang to level the match at 1-1, then got a PK call in the 119th minute.  Chloe Kelly's shot was stopped but she put in the rebound for the game winner.  The call, which you can see here, was not without controversy.

I heard two arguments about why this should not have been called, one which I'm not buying but the other has some merit.  Some argue that this was too soft a foul to call in the 119th minute of a contest.  For me that's in the same vein as you can't give a yellow card in the opening minutes of a match.  If it's an infraction, call it regardless of the time and score.  On the other hand, several pointed out that this referee had been lenient about calling fouls the entire game and had been playing on through stuff that looked similar to this one for nearly 120 minutes.  That context I do think is relevant.  The replays I saw didn't really help sort it out and if you watch the video.  In the end, the referee was in perfect position to make the call and had the best view of anybody so I don't have a big problem with this.

Spain - Germany was tense as neither side could score in regulation.  Spain got the breakthrough on a goal from Bonmati, which is presented here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  First, the dummy to let the ball through was brilliant.  She went near post as the keeper seemed more concerned about the cross than the shot.  Dennis said that Spain players knew that Berger had a habit of leaving the near post open.  Clearly worthy of a game winner.

So we get a repeat of the World Cup Final - Spain versus England.

Memo to Women Soccer Players

Does that look accidental to you?
Photo:. Sebastian Christoph Gollnow/dpa

STOP WATCHING THE MENS GAME! In the Club World Cup final a few Sundays ago we saw Neves sent off for pulling Cucarella's hair.  In Saturday's quarterfinal against France, Germany's Hendrich got sent off for pulling Mbock's hair.  She got the requisite red card.  What was particularly galling was that Hendrich seemed stunned by the call, as in "What did I do?  How is that a red card?"  The German manager also got a yellow, I'm pretty sure for arguing the call.  The excuses continued after the match as a German official claimed that "her hand got caught in her hair."  Hmm, the picture (left) suggests otherwise. The bottom line: shithousery is definitely on the rise in the women's game.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Almost Did

Dennis: Did you say it's hard to score goals against Germany?

Steve: No, I said they have a Knaak for defending.

 

Back to Third

Completing their third match in eight days, the Union could only manage a 1-1 draw in Houston.  I did see the match live, though it was admittedly distracted viewing.  Definitely chippy, with 44 (!) fouls (25 by the Union) seven yellow cards and a late red card for Frankie Westfield.  Early in the first half we saw the referee pleading with the teams to tone it down but it didn't seem to make much difference.  To me, despite only 37% possession, the U seemed the better side.  Expected goals was 1.7-1.5 favor the Union but if you adjust for Houston's PK, the difference is 1.7-.7.  As in, we're still not scoring like we should.

Bedoya's scruffy goal gave them an early lead but Jack McGlynn's PK in first half stoppage time leveled the match and ended the scoring for the night.  From what I could tell, Bueno did a chicken wing with his right arm and the PK was probably deserved.  On the other hand, the foul called against Harriel in the buildup that negated a PK foul against Damiani looked really soft.  The game had other consequences, with both Harriel (yellow card accumulation) and Westfield (straight red card) suspended for Saturday's match versus Colorado.  And, with Cincinnati and Nashville picking up wins, the U dropped to third in the East.

 

Who's Your Gaffer?

Answers to last week's trivia question:

If they were all in one room, somebody might be tempted to say "Look around, half of you won't be here next year."

Not So Fast

Got a few comments on Anthony Elanga's sub-11 second 100 meter clocking.  Most notably, BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W observed that:

Hmmmm.....sub 11 is quick, but certainly not "elite". For context, less than 100 USA high school boys (rough estimate) run that fast each year. You'd have a solid shot at making the USA women's Olympic team. A person with 10.0 speed would get about 10 yards of separation from a 10.9 runner in a full pitch breakaway...i.e. leave them in the dust. 

Fortunately, Elanga will not be competing against any of them.

Who's Your Oddsmaker?

Not seeing enough predictions for the coming EPL season yet.  But, for fun, we can look at how people did last year.  See the chart below:

We use Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) to assess accuracy.  Opta was gold medal winner, with Pinnacle and Average silver and bronze.    Opta got eight picks spot on, one that was a single place off and three that were two spots off.  Arsenal was the most correct pick across the board - no one missed by more than one place.  Man United, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest stumped the experts most often, with most recording double digit misses on all three.  Yogi was right.

Short Schedule

So we have the Union on Saturday night at Subaru Park vs Colorado.  The Rapids are decidedly a mid-table side so we should be looking for three points here.  Opta agrees, giving them 63% chance for a win.  They will be a little short in the back but probably still okay.  I'd be interested in more goals from Baribo, Damiani and Uhre.

We also have the Women's Euro Final featuing Spain and England.  Kickoff is at noon on Fox.  I had figured Spain would be a clear favorite here but that's not what Opta has.  They show Spain at 38%, England at 35%, with a 27% chance of added extra time/penalty kicks.  

Three weeks until EPL starts.

Back on Top

Clearly buoyed by my attendance at consecutive matches, the Union got two wins.  The Club World Cup ended in disarray.

Playing With a  Full Deck

The Mighty Quinn: Back from international break with two assists

With injuries and international duty easing, the Union starting XI on Saturday and Wednesday were close to what Manager Bradley Carnell might have projected back in February.  Not surprisingly, they got two wins, 2-0 over Red Bulls and 2-1 over Montreal.  Alas, the glass is half empty.

The half full part includes mostly stuff from the Red Bulls match;

- a dominant first half against Red Bulls in which the Union controlled the pitch and built a 2-0 lead in 24 minutes

- creative passing patterns in the Red Bull match, including a sequence that led to the second goal, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment

- pretty much a lockdown defense against Red Bulls that allowed no shots in the first half and only one shot on target, which came in second half stoppage time

- a gritty win against Montreal despite an overall poor performance

The half empty stuff?

- frequently intercepted passes in both matches

- inability to win a 50/50 challenge in midfield in both matches

- some shocking breakdowns in marking in the Montreal match

- these wins were against two of the weaker sides in the East

For sure the Montreal match was a "trap game," a home contest against the last place side in the middle of three games in eight days.  The numbers are not pretty.  Possession was 60/40 and shots were 14/12 favor the Union.  But shots on target were 4/4 and most notably, xG was 1.7/1.4 favor Montreal.  That last number suggests maybe some key saves from Andre Blake and indeed he did come up big late.  

Last week we argued that four was minimum and six expected from these two matches so the U met that target.  They finished the week back in first place by a point over Cincinnati and two ahead of Nashville.  Inter Miami are eight back but have three matches in hand.  No time to rest and they will need to be better against top teams.

Woke Up It Was A Chelsea Afternoon (apologies to Joni Mitchell)

Straight red? But his hair is curly

I can't say I saw this coming - total domination by Chelsea in a 3-0 pasting of PSG.  Cole Palmer had two identical goals at 22 and 30 minutes.  He then set up Joao Pedro with a perfectly weighted through ball that made it 3-0 just before the half time whistle.  You can see replays of the goals here; the video is worth it for the screaming commentator in the background alone.  PSG showed better in the second half but never broke through and frustration took over, as witnessed by Joao Neves grabbing Marc Cucarella's hair for a straight (curly?) red card.

A disappointing contest was followed by ugly post match afters on the pitch, including Luis Enrique shoving Joao Pedro to the ground plus Donald Trump trying to take over the award ceremony and possibly pocketing a gold medal.  Somehow, it all seems to capture FIFA at its best.

Make That 60% Less Shithousery

Caught a few of final group stage matches for the women's Euro Championship and was mildly disappointed at how some of the men's antics are creeping into the women's game.  Exaggerating the impact of minimal contact and grabbing body parts in pain that were never touched were the most common examples.  Just stop it.  

The two quarterfinals so far were tight.  Italy got a 90th minute goal from Girelli to beat Norway while Sweden - England went to seven rounds of PKs.  The Lionesses advanced 3-2 when Sweden missed their seventh PK.  England had fallen behind by two goals early after some shaky play out of the back but got two goals in quick succession at 79 and 81 minutes to level things.  

The Italy - Norway match provided a teaching moment about the offside rule.  A Norwegian attacker was wrestled to the ground in the box and the refereee promptly signaled for a PK.  The announcers noted the attacker was in an offside position when the ball was kicked and were puzzled when the VAR upheld the PK.  Mark Clattenburg provided a succinct explanation: the foul occurred before an offside infraction could occur. That particular scenario is specifically addressed by IFAB in Law 11.  In a situation where:

• a player in an offside position is moving towards the ball with the intention of playing the ball and is fouled before playing or attempting to play the ball, or challenging an opponent for the ball, the foul is penalised as it has occurred before the offside offence

We can debate whether this logical but the language is clear.  It's kind of like the keeper is supposed to know to ignore the guy standing in an offside position.  

The quarter finals continue over the weekend with the semis and final next week.

A Sort of Palace Coup

As explained here, Crystal Palace have been demoted from the Europa Cup to the less lucrative Europa Conference League.  The issue is that UEFA rules for club competition prohibit two clubs that share more than 30% ownership to participate in the same UEFA club competition.  Something about ensuring the integrity of the competition.  UEFA believes that the ownership structures of Crystal Palace and Lyon violate the rule so they moved Palace to the Conference League; they bumped Palace because of Lyon's higher finish in their league.  Nottingham Forest get to move up from Conference League to Europa Cup.  Palace have appealed so this isn't really over yet.  

You Can't Teach Speed

Newcastle have never been accused of great team speed.  The signing of Anthony Elanga changes that.  As shown here, Elanga has sub-11 second 100 meter speed.  Dennis is not impressed, telling me that a guy on his summer team has a PR of 10.8 and that's not even his primary event.  

Rumors continue to fly about Isak's possible departure to Liverpool but it's hard to know what the real story is.  The money Newcastle would get for him might make some of the financial regulations easier to meet but for me it would be a major disruption of the team they've been building over the last few years.

Who's Your Gaffer?

With the EPL just a few weeks away, we'll start to ease into the season.  Can you match the manager with his team?

 Working from scratch I could only get 12 but with all the names I did manage 16.

On the Light Side

We have the Union at Houston at 8:30.  This will be a chance to see Jack McGlynn with his new team.  Houston aren't exactly tearing it up but it is an away match and the U's third in eight days.  Houston have had a similar schedule so maybe that will even out.  

At the Euros, Spain and Switzerland face off today at 3 pm and France versus Germany is Saturday at 3 pm.  The semis are Tuesday (Italy vs England) and Wednesday (winners of Friday and Saturday quarterfinals), also at 3 pm.

Cornucopia

Yes, an abundant supply of good things, even if every result isn't what you want.

A Proper Footballing Experience

I won't say the Club World Cup contest between Palmeiras and Chelsea at the Linc matched seeing Newcastle at St. James' Park, but it was close.  The Linc was packed with 65,872 fans, a significant and vocal majority of whom were Palmeiras supporters  They knew their role and played it well with songs, chants, banners and rollouts regardless of what was happening on the pitch; see here.  Would their team's backline been as well organized.  Chelsea fans were abundant too but tended to be quieter until their side actually did something.  

Our seats for Palmeiras - Chelsea; $200 doesn't buy what it used to

The match was close.  Palmeiras did some attacking early but Chelsea slowly took over.  Palmer's goal was the inevitable result of that pressure. (Wait, you can't spell Palmeiras without Palmer!)  Fortunately, Palmeiras did not concede a second before the halftime whistle and they came out with a better game plan in the second half.  From our vantage point, we have no idea how Estevao's shot got past Sanchez but it leveled things in the 53rd minute.  Back and forth from there and the prospect of extra time loomed.  Chelsea got the game winner on an own goal off defender Agustin Giay in the 83rd minute.  

The Union crew at the Linc

I won't say they were just happy to be there but Palmeiras supporters seemed to take the loss in stride, taking comfort perhaps in the good run their club had in the competition.  Chelsea fans were a bit more vocal leaving than they had been arriving.  

Except for maybe our seats not being the best, the four Union guys had a great time too.  Technically we
were neutrals looking for a close match but I think we became de facto fans of Palmeiras because of their underdog status.  Thoroughly enjoyed the experience.

Ya Done Good Philly

Inquirer writer Jonathan Tannenwald highlights here how well Philly came off as it hosted Club World Cup matches.  Attendance for the eight matches was just under 350,000 and two fixtures drew over 60,000.  Reviews from players and fans alike are positive for the venue, the restaurants and bars, and even the Broad Street subway.  To the extent this was a dry run for next summer's World Cup, the results are encouraging.  

All-Euro Final For CWC

I didn't see Fluminense's quarterfinal 2-1 win over Al-Hilal 2-1.  PSG did not exactly blow Bayern out the water despite what the 2-0 final suggests.  They didn't score until the 78th minute, then proceeded to have players sent off at 82 and 90+2 minutes to make the end more exciting.  Except Dembele scored in stoppage time to end the drama.  Speaking of stoppage time goals and drama, Real Madrid's 3-2 win over Dortmund featured three second half stoppage time goals.  Frankly the match wasn't all that exciting until then as RM jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first 20 minutes.  Dortmund got one back at 90+2, but Mbappe restored the two goal lead two minutes later.  But Dortmund got another via a PK at 90+8 in a play that saw Huijsen sent off for RM.  Not much time left but Courtois was called upon to make a game saving save in the final minute.  

The semis were more tepid affairs.  Chelsea was never really threatened in a 2-0 win over Fluminense.  PSG obliterated Real Madrid 4-0, scoring three times in the opening 24 minutes.  I didn't see the match but the stats back up the final score; possession was 69/31, shots 17/11 and shots on target were 7/2, with xG 2.45/.74.  Hmm, Real Madrid did no better than Inter Miami against PSG.

No Gold Cup for US

Some of the focus after the US 2-1 loss to Mexico in the Gold Cup Final has been on the no handling call in the box (we'll get to that in a minute) but really the point is that US were thoroughly outplayed by the Mexicans.  Great that it was a hard-fought match but the US were clearly the second best team that night.  And I don't think it's really a big issue either.  This was a team that was missing 8-9 likely starters from next year's World Cup so expectations should be adjusted accordingly.  We learned a few things about which players might (or might not) be deserving of a spot on the WC roster.  We don't need any hand wringing right now.

As for the no handling call, you can see the play here.  Not a close call for me as the defender was falling after contact with the US player and was extending his arm to brace for the fall.  It seems like a tremendous stretch to say he was making himself bigger.  But some are still making the case; the still picture looks very damning but when you see the video, it doesn't look anywhere near as egregious.  There were also complaints about the foul that set up the free kick for the winning goal and about possible offside on the play as well.  A little too much whining for my taste given that the bigger issue was they were seriously outplayed. 

Maybe it's over but maybe it's not; the back of the goal
 post is in line with the back of the goal line so...

Also, I've scanned the web for a picture with a definitive image that shows Richards' header was completely over the line but found none.  Doesn't mean it wasn't the correct call; the AR had the best view and there was no reason for VAR to overturn the call.  My question though is how does the Gold Cup not have Goal Line Technology for the final.  This is supposedly a major competition in a venue that will be hosting World Cup matches next year.  Was this a budget cutting measure?  Did DOGE have anything to do with it?

Does US Soccer Have a Type?

Pochettino found a line up he liked and didn't mess with much rotation.  He was also extremely slow on the subs, often not doing much until after the 80th minute.  Not sure it mattered in this competition in terms of results but does it do much for the morale of those who were looking for a chance to make their case for the World Cup team.  Last August I noted that the USWNT manager Emma Hayes was not a big fan of rotation and used subs sparingly.  At least she gets to point to an Olympic gold medal.  Again though, a little worried about what that strategy does to the morale of the backups.  Didn't they both manage Chelsea?

Stuck Inside of Nashville with the Columbus Blues Again (apologies to Bob Dylan)

It was late in second half stoppage time with the Union and Nashville level at 0-0, which was annoying given that the U had been up a man since the 63rd minute.  BFS Artistic Director Laura O said she knew Nashville were playing for a draw at that point but might the Union also being willing to settle for just a point?  I said maybe but they shouldn't be.  About 30 seconds later, they get caught on a counter, Makhanya commits a foul in the box, Nashville converts the PK and the Union wind up with nothing.  Should have listened to Laura.

This is the second straight 1-0 loss from a match that they should have at least gotten a point.  They haven't scored in over 260 minutes and that was a PK from Damiani in the 10th minute against Chicago.  The loss drops them to third in the Eastern Conference.  They've been playing with a thin roster so some of the decline is understandable.  The good news is that Baribo made a late appearance against Nashville, though he didn't score.  Also, Sullivan and Harriel will be back from international duty.  Uhre and Westfield might be available Saturday as well.  Definitely need to see some goals again.

No Bulls

Yeah, that's unplayable
Photo: Bill Streicher - Imagn Images

The Union's quarterfinal US Open Cup match against Red Bulls was postponed when a  line parallelogram of thunderstorms took its time rolling through Southeastern PA.  The match is rescheduled for August 13.  The Union might benefit in two ways from the delay.  First, several players who would have been unavailable may well be ready by that date.  Second, thanks to the League Cup, Red Bulls will have seven matches between July 26th and August 16th, including contests on 8/7 and 8/10; they might be a bit fatigued at that point.

I Don't Think She Was Faking It

Dennis notified me of an interesting play in the Germany-Denmark Euro Championship match.  You can see the play here.  The Danish defender slams the clearance right into the face of the teammate and she goes down like she's been shot.  The ball ricochets right to a German attacker, who lays it off for a teammate, who scores the go-ahead (and winning) goal.

The Danish player clearly has a head injury.  Shouldn't the referee stop play immediately? The answer it appears, it elusive.  Here's the language from IFAB.

stops play if a player is seriously injured and ensures that the player is removed from the field of play

I saw many posts that add the word "immediately," but did not find that word in any IFAB documents.  Mark Clattenburg, who I almost always agree with, said there was no way the referee could stop play in that situation.  Part of the reasoning is based on the fact that it was a Danish player who kicked the ball into her teammate's face and therefore Germany shouldn't lose a goal scoring opportunity.  But wait, if the issue is player safety and getting treatment as soon as possible for the injured player, why does who kicked it matter?  If you watch the referee, I think she had just turned her head away from the play and did not see the ball strike Snerle in the face so maybe she wasn't sure if she needed to stop play right away.  I'm more okay with that line of reasoning, although she really should be following the ball at that point. I suppose you could argue that there was no disadvantage for Denmark as even if Snerle had not gone down, there's no way she could have been helpful in stopping the goal.  Again, if the issue is player safety and immediate treatment, that's irrelevant.  

All the Soccer with 80% Less Shithousery

I only picked up on the Women's European Championship with Thursday's group stage match featuring Finland and Switzerland.  The Finns needed a win to advance whereas a draw would have been enough for the Swiss.  Finland got their goal in the 79th minute on a PK but Switzerland got the equalizer in stoppage time and advance to the knockout stage.  Norway were the winners in that group.  

BTW, the women's game is noted for much lower level of shithousery than the men, though Dennis suggests Italy can shit house with the best of them.  I saw clearly in the Finland - Switzerland match that the women do not know the proper procedure for a PK.  The keeper went straight to the goal line, the taker went to the PK spot and everybody else lined up outside the box.  Don't they know everybody is supposed to crowd the PK spot for five minutes before going to these positions?

Still Plenty To Do

Two Union matches this week - Red Bulls Saturday at 7:30 and Montreal Wednesday at 7:30.  I have a ticket for both so two trips to Subaru Park for me.  The Union are favorites in both matches, especially against Montreal.  Six points is needed and four points is a minimum.

The Club World Cup concludes on Sunday afternoon at 3 pm on TBS with Chelsea facing PSG at the Meadowlands.  Opta has PSG as moderate favorites (42-32 with a 26% chance of the match going extra time).  The French club has been on a tear so Chelsea will have to bring their best game.  

The Women's Euro Championships finishes the group stage with two matches each Friday, Saturday an Sunday, all starting at 3 pm.  Quarterfinals run from Wednesday-Saturday with one match each day at 3 pm.    

Five Fridays from today, the EPL starts.

Club World Cup, Gold Cup and MLS, Oh My

Busted.  I watched more Club World Cup games.  And Gold Cup.  And the Union.  A lot of football.  What did we learn?

1) A one goal lead is the most dangerous in football

Freeze frame: Matt Freese with one of his 3 PK saves 

Panama were probably the better side against Honduras but never added to their 1-0 lead.  Honduras got the equalizer at 82 minutes and then won the penalty shoot out (they don't play extra time except for the final).  Somewhat the same story for Canada in their contest versus Guatemala except they added another degree of difficulty by getting a man sent off late in first half stoppage time. They were up 1-0 but conceded in the 69th minute, then were lucky to hold on for PKs.  Didn't matter as they lost the shoot out 5-6.

Exhibit C for the danger of the one goal lead is the US.  They fell behind Costa Rica 0-1 on an early PK but rallied nicely and carried a 2-1 lead late into the match.  I thought they were the better side but they conceded the equalizer at 71 minutes.  Nice work by Matt Freese to lead them to a 4-3 win in the shootout.You can see his three saves here.

2) Smoke and mirrors can only work for so long

The Union had done a great job getting results despite being shorthanded due to injuries, international duty and suspensions.  That run came to an end with a 1-0 loss at Columbus.  Expected goals (1.4-.7)  and no shots on target for the U suggest maybe this was the right outcome.  But the way the Union pretty much ran things in the second half makes me feel like they deserved a draw.  They really need a healthy Baribo.

3) Club World Cup is looking like UEFA Champions League with a few guests

Five European sides have advanced to the quarter finals.  It could have been seven if not for a couple of upsets on Monday.   Fluminense tripped up Inter Milan 2-0, then the Saudi club Al-Hilal triumphed over Man City in a 4-3 extra time classic.   Here's the game winner from Marcos Leonardo, his second goal of the night, that sent City home.

4) The gap between MLS and European Leagues is wider than the Atlantic Ocean

Maybe it's a bit unfair to use the PSG 4-0 thrashing of Inter Miami as a yardstick since the Parisien team has been scything through European opposition too.   However, at no point did it look like Miami stood a chance against PSG in this Club World Cup Round of 16 match.

5) Scoring early and often is a better strategy

Not the goal scoring Diego Luna

Very thankful that US, behind early goals by Diego Luna (not the star of Disney's Andor), had a 2-0 lead on Guatemala by the 15th minute in the Gold Cup semi-final.  We make Luna's second goal this week's YouTubeableMoment; pretty much a marvelous individual effort.  Unfortunately the US lost the plot somewhere in the first half and spent the rest of the match on their heels.  Eventually, they allowed a goal in the 80th minute, making the last 15 or so minutes squeaky bum territory.  Pochettino is acting like the Argentine version of Jim Curtin, waiting very late to make substitutions.  He put Aaronson in at 58, but waited until 77 and 85 to make further changes.  We'll never know but maybe earlier substitutions might have blunted some of Guatemala's momentum.

The US will now face Mexico, who struggled to get past Honduras 1-0 in the other semi.  El Tri did have another goal called back for offside based on an interpretation of what's a deliberate play, not whether the player was in an offside position.  I couldn't find a good video but this one wasn't as controversial for me; it came off the keeper making a save, and bounced off another Honduran player.  The key point here is that it was a save:

A player in an offside position receiving the ball from an opponent who deliberately plays the ball, including by deliberate handball, is not considered to have gained an advantage, unless it was a deliberate save by any opponent.

I would think the US are decided underdogs in the final.  As Dennis put it "Yay, we get to go lose to Mexico."  For me, regardless of what happens Sunday, this Gold Cup goes down as a successful competition for the USMNT.  They played with a squad that was missing 7-9 starters from next year's likely World Cup squad and, despite looking shaky more often than we'd like, still made the final.  Slightly disappointed that Pochettino didn't take a longer look at some of the newer players - channeling his inner Jim Curtin again?  But, I think we found out that Chris Price, Malik Tillman and Diego Luna will do very nicely on next year's team.

BFS Book Club

I have been remiss in not mentioning this.  BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S lent me the book Godwin: A Novel by Joseph O'Neill. It''s a fictional tale of people who see a video of the next potential Messi playing in anonymity somewhere in Western Africa.  We follow them as they attempt to track down and sign this phenom.  Like Ted Lasso, the story is grounded in soccer but the more important stuff is what the author has to say about family relationships, work relationships, career choices and deciding what you want in life. Highly recommended.

Permit me one small spoiler about the book.  One of the characters is a grizzled scout who has toiled in Europe all his life.  He is sitting with the protaganist at one point, thoroughly disparaging the American game and Major League Soccer.  "MLS, it sounds like a disease, not a soccer league."  Ouch, that'll leave a mark.  

Thanks For Nuthin'

I don't mean to be a curmudgeon, but the recent announcement (seen here), that NBC Sports Philadelphia will rebroadcast Union matches is a joke right?  The matches will reair between 48 hours and 7 days after the original broadcast.  Union president Tim McDermott was very self-congratulatory:

“This collaboration greatly enhances the visibility of the MLS Season Pass original content to the wide range of viewership for NBCSP so that our passionate fans are closer to the game than ever before.”

"Closer to the game than ever?"  Please.  You mean like when we could watch real time with our own broadcast team (Dellacamera and Higgenbotham - arguably best in MLS)?  This is only useful if you're willing to wait 2-7 days to see the result or if you don't care if you know the score and just want to see how they looked.  I won't totally disparage the second part because some find that useful but overall this is thin gruel.

One If By Car, Two If By Subway

The Union crew is off to the Linc Friday night to see the quarter final Club World Cup match between Palmeiras and Chelsea.  There's a good chance the crowd will exceed 50,000 and given that the City is already a hub of activity on July 4th with concerts and fireworks, getting to and from the South Philly venue could be an adventure. I believe the Broad Street subway is the preferred alternative.

I'm hoping Opta has this one wrong as they have Chelsea at 65%, Palmeiras at 15% with a 20% chance of extra time.  A more optimistic preview, at least in terms of an exciting match, can be found here.  

The other CWC quarters are Fluminense - Al-Hilal (guaranteeing one non-European side in the semis), Dortmund - Real Madrid and PSG -Bayern (guaranteeing at least two Euro sides in the semis).  Opta sees Al-Hilal, Real Madrid and PSG advancing.

The Gold Cup wraps up with the US - Mexico final Sunday at 7 pm.  Opta has that one at 43% Mexico, 31% US with a 26% chance of extra time.  

Don't despair, even as these tournaments wind down, there is still some mid-week football to be had.  The Club World Cup semis are Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons at 3 pm.  Better still, the Union take on Red Bulls Wednesday night at Subaru Park in the US Open Cup quarterfinals.  

But, a slow period is on the way, which might not be a bad thing.