Just Like Old Times

Hmm, Arsenal rains on Newcastle's parade, spoiling a weekend filled with mostly favorable results.  The Union win big but lose big.

Hard to Complain

When you lose on a late goal sometimes perspective gets lost because you were so close. Yes, we did feel like a draw against Arsenal was within our grasp until Gabriel's 96 minute winner.  But a clear-eyed look at the whole match suggests that would have been stealing a point. The stats certainly suggest a 2-1 Arsenal win was the right outcome.  Possession was 63/37, shots 20/8, shots on target 7/3 and most importantly xG was 2.04/.61.  Certainly it felt like the Magpies were hanging on for dear life most of the second half and especially in the closing minutes.  

VAR has a busy day here.  A PK call against Pope was overturned.  Real time it looked like a foul but after looking at the replay I'd argue that it wasn't.  Was it a clear and obvious error or a case of re-refereeing?  ESPN argues here that it wasn't the latter because Gillet hadn't seen the touch on the ball by Pope.  There was a check on Voldemart's goal for a "push" against Gabriel, which was so soft that the commentator suggested the Arsenal player should be embarrassed.  Then, late in the match, the ball clearly strikes Gabriel's upraised arm in the box.  He was sliding at the time but the arm was still pretty high.  It deflected off his leg before hitting his arm though which was probably enough to save him.  That play is also discussed in the ESPN article.

Oh, and to add to the good news, Livramento suffered a knee injury and will miss six to eight weeks.

Sigh, just like the bad old days.

New-no Manager Bounce?

Sort of.  Nuno Espirito Santo did not spend much time unemployed as he was snapped up by West Ham upon the sacking of Graham Potter.  The Hammers did manage a 1-1 draw with Everton in his first match in charge.  

You Think You Had A Bad Day?

Maxime Esteve, on his knees as you would be too if 
you gave up two own goals in one match

Burnley had a tall enough task facing Man City at the Etihad.  Maxime Esteve made it a little harder when he gave up an own goal in the 12th minute.  The Clarets soldiered on and were surprisingly level at 1-1 until Nunes put City ahead in the 61st minute.  Then Esteve finished the task with his second own goal of the day.  Haaland added two meaningless goals late to make the final 5-1.  Esteve is the 6th player in EPL history to get a brace of own goals in a game, joining the likes of Craig Dawson and Jamie Carragher.

Don't Disrespect Opta

Last week I questioned how Opta could have Brentford as the favorite against Man United.  My bad.  The Bees were 3-1 winners thanks to a brace from Thiago with an insurance goal from Jensen.  I will not question their predictions again.

Better Late

Aside from Gabriel's killer goal at Newcastle, four other squads snatched points on late goals and by late I mean in stoppage time.

- Eddie Nketiah's 93rd minute tally gave Crystal Palace a surprise 2-1 win over Liverpool.  Would have been a fun day to be at Selhurst Park.  Palace are now the only undefeated side in the EPL.  Nketiah's goal can be seen here.

- Joao Palhinha helped Spurs grab a 1-1 draw against Wolves with his 94th minute strike.  Wolves are no longer pointless. The goal can be seen here.

- Eli Kroupi did basically the same thing for Bournemouth at Leeds, rescuing a 2-2 draw for the Cherries

- Brighton actually got two stoppage time goals (Maxim DeCuyper and Danny Welbeck) to take the measure of Chelsea 3-1.  The Blues played the last 40+ minutes a man down thanks to Chalobah's straight red.

Champions League

Bodo Fet? Bodo Fet? Where?

The key thing I remember is that Bodo Glimt has a player named Fet.  I'll have to explain that later to Michael B, who has never seen any of the Star Wars movies.

A true mixed bag of results for Matchday 2 for the EPL.  Newcastle did well with a 4-0 win over Union Saint-Gilloise and Arsenal were 2-0 over Olympiakos.  Chelsea did squeak out a 1-0 win over Benfica.   Spurs were drawn 2-2 by Bodo Glimt on artificial turf above the Arctic Circle and were in some ways lucky to come away with that.  Man City could do no better than 2-2 against Monaco and Liverpool lost to Galatasaray. 

A Quinn-tessential Pyrrhic Victory

We won't be seeing the Mighty Quinn for a bit

The Union's easy and emphatic 6-0 win over DC United comes at great cost.  Quinn Sullivan suffered an ACL injury and will miss the rest of the season (and maybe the start of next?).  On the positive side, the U wasted no time in taking it to DC and were up 3-0 by halftime and did not take the pedal off the gas.  Goal scorers included Damiani, Vassilev (2!), Iloski and Uhre.

The Union's Eastern Conference position had been bolstered by Miami's 1-1 draw earlier in the day and Cincinnati's draw on Sunday.  Things got even better as Miami lost to Chicago on Tuesday.  Their Supporters Shield chances were also buoyed by a Vancouver draw and San Diego loss.  Another three points gets them both the conference title and the Supporters Shield.

Three Day Weekend

For some reason (midweek Champions League and Europa Cup?), Sunday is the crowded match day.  Things kick off Friday with a 3 pm match on USA featuring Bournmouth vs .Fulham.  Saturday dawns bright and early with Leeds hosting Spurs at 7:30 on USA.  Only two choices at 10, neither all that enticing; you can do Arsenal - West Ham on Peacock or Man United - Sunderland on USA.  Or go referee some games.

The feature match is worthy of the label as we have Chelsea hosting Liverpool at 12:30 on NBC.  Opta has the Reds as slight favorites over the Blues, even at Stamford Bridge.

The Sunday 9 am slot is packed and of course has Newcastle and Aston Villa playing at the same time.  Newcastle will host Nottingham Forest (that's the USA game) while Aston Villa are home to Burnley.  Both sides will be thinking three points, especially at home.  Your other choices are Everton - Crystal Palace, which should be a decent watch, or Wolves vs Brighton.  There's also the 11:30 match with Brentford - Man City.

Big time doings at Subaru Park as the Union host NYCFC with a chance to clinch everything with a win.  Opta likes their chances, with the Union at 51% to win, 25% to draw.  The problem is that a draw means we need some help on the out-of-town scoreboard.

Next week is the fall international break,  which means a pile of UEFA World Cup Qualifiers running from Thursday to Tuesday.

Not All Draws Are Created Equal

 I did get to see three of the five draws this weekend.  And a few of the mid-week matches.

A Good Draw

There were no illusions about how difficult Bournemouth would be at home.  Even Opta saw the Cherries as a slight favorite.  So, the 0-0 draw isn't a bad thing.  Especially since Howe went with a heavily rotated line up.  He's not taking flak for that but he is getting some pushback for a conservative game plan that included a back three.  The argument is that regardless of their good start, this is still Bournemouth and a club like Newcastle should aggressively be seeking the win.  I was fine with it as I think people are underestimating Bournemouth and the wrong approach could have landed the Magpies with a 1-3 or worse defeat.

Sometimes When You Tie, You Actually Lose

That would be Aston Villa.  The good news is that did manage to score against Sunderland.  But that's about all the good news there is.  This was a 10-man Sunderland and the one goal was all Villa could manage.  Worse, Sunderland got a late goal and came away with a 1-1 draw.  Yikes, Villa would have been thinking three points even full strength so against the shorthanded side, this is a terrible result.  Emery, perhaps unfairly, has moved into third or fourth place in the sack race.  

Random Observations Based on Little Observation

- Crystal Palace are still undefeated with two wins and three draws

- Man United got a big win over Chelsea in a monsoon, helped by an early red card to keeper Sanchez

- Spurs displayed some grit as they rallied from 0-2 to get a draw with Brighton (actually saw that one)

- Arsenal snatched a draw from the jaws of defeat in a lively 1-1 draw with Man City (saw that one too)

- Wolves are still pointless through five matches after a 1-3 loss at home to Leeds

As Defending Champions, Newcastle Are Obligated to Carabao the EFL Cup

Osula netted two vs Bradford City
Getty Images

The Magpies entered the Carabao Cup this week with a 4-1 thumping of League One Bradford City at St. James' Park. Though the visitors put up a good fight, Newcastle were never really threatened here after getting two quick goals.  Good to see some scoring regardless of the opponent, especially from Osula.

Ten Premier League sides are still in the hunt as we are down to the last 16.  Newcastle's opponent in the fourth round will be Spurs

Europa Cup Action

G-O-A-L for McGinn 
Reuters/Andrew Boyers

Against Bologna, Aston Villa did this thing where one of their players kicked the ball past the goal keeper and it went into the net. Dennis wasn't sure what that is called.  It's called a goal. They also ended the match with more goals than the other team and Dennis asked what is that called.  That is a win.  But even in victory this team remains a puzzle.  They had many more chances and Watkins missed a PK. In short, this should have been an easy win but instead was a nailbiter. 

You Say You Want the Revolution? (apologies to The Beatles)

With the Union struggling of late, 11th place New England rolled into town at the perfect time. Though they struggled to take advantage of the situation, Damiani's 70th minute goal was just enough to come away with a 1-0 win. Set up by a great pass from Westfield, we make it this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  I only saw the highlights but the stats - especially xG of 1.9-.8 - do suggest that the U were better than 1-0.

The win keeps the Union on top of the East and first in the Supporters Shield standings.  However, with three to go, they haven't even locked up a top four finish yet.  

No Time To Rest

We have another busy week on tap.  

Well this has to be a typo.  For the 7:30 am Saturday match (USA), Opta has Brentford as a solid favorite over Man United at 48%-26% (26% draw).  Sure it's home match for the Bees but really?

Four choices at 10 am.  TV wants you to watch Man City host Burnley but that looks like a massacre.  I'd be inclined to go with...oh never mind, there's no good option as you can pick from Chelsea - Brighton, Crystal Palace - Liverpool or Leeds - Bournemouth.  Then we move to the "feature" 12:30 match with Nottingham Forest v Sunderland on USA (lemme guess, Ryder Cup gets the NBC slot?).  And there's the no longer special but regular 3 pm Peacock match between Spurs and Wolves.

It's an all BFS Sunday with Aston Villa hosting Fulham and Newcastle against Arsenal at St. James' Park at 9 and 11:30 on USA.  This is usually an unhappy match up for the Magpies, no matter where they play.  The good news is that things have been more even in recent times than, say, the 2012-2021 era where Newcastle lost 17 of 18.  Still, we are solid underdogs here.  Dennis may have a better time with Fulham.

There is a Monday match too, with Everton facing off against West Ham at 3 pm on USA.

Tuesday and Wednesday are match day 2 of Champions League  league play.  Six EPL sides are in action, including Newcastle at Union Saint-Gilloise; I will confess to not knowing that club but I see they are top of the Belgian Pro League ahead of more well-known clubs like Anderlecht and Club Brugge.

The Union need to make hay while the sun shines as they face DC United away at 7:30 on Saturday.  No disrespect intended but this is the easiest match of the Union's closing contests.  With so many teams on their heels, it is basically a must-win game.

Busy times

So Much To Do

Yikes, where'd the time go?  Late Thursday night and the deadline approaches and I'm in Virginia playing in a member-guest golf tournament with BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W, trying to keep up the track and field world championships, catching Champions League matches where I can and handling referee assignment duties.  Plus, my dog ate my homework.  Will get to what I can.

Immediate Dividends

That was fast.  In his first start for Newcastle, Voldemort Wortleman Woltemade delivered the winning goal in the Magpies narrow 1-0 win over Wolves. We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment. The announcers had been saying that despite his 6'5" frame, Woltemade did not score a lot of headers.  So of course, he promptly scored a header goal. 

 Wolves threatened in the opening minutes and I thought they had some good chances but the xG is only .5 so maybe they looked scarier than they were.   After that rough start, the defense was pretty good.  This was not a particularly appetizing game to watch but Newcastle did get all three points so it was good enough for the moment.  On the other hand, this is the last place side in the league so 1-0 win at home isn't anything to brag about.

Don't They Know These Games Count?

Emery: Am I predictiable?
(Bradley Collyer/PA) (PA Wire)

Apparently no one in Birmingham set an alarm to let Aston Villa know that the EPL season has started.  They have two draws, two losses and no goals in EPL play.  Their latest let down was 0-0 draw with Everton.  I only saw the highlights that made it look like the Toffees were the better side.  The stats back up that impression with shots at 20/7, shots on target 2/1 and xG at 2.08/.54, all favor of Everton.  Dennis noted that by Sunday, Villa were the only side in the top seven tiers of English football without a goal.

Why the poor start?  They did lose a few players when their loans expired (Rashford, Asensio, and Disasi), Jacob Ramsey on transfer to Newcastle and Leon Bailey out on loan to AS Roma but those don't seem like decimating losses.   They have added Harvey Elliott and Jadon Sancho.  I am reading articles that suggest that the team has become too predictable.  They have been hindered by the PSR which have limited their ability to spend.  

Though they did score in their Carabao Cup match with Brentford, Villa lost on PKs.  Maybe for the best.

Burnley Have A Type?

And it's not a good one.  For the second straight matchweek, the Clarets played one of the big boys tough for 90 minutes only to concede a PK in second half stoppage time.  This time it was Liverpool.  Scott Parker's game plan (Parker the bus?) worked pretty much to perfection and despite allowing the Reds 27 shots, only four were on target and they only managed one big chance.

Back in the studio, Tim Howard pointed out a big risk in the bunkering strategy - you can't make even one mistake if you don't generate any shots on target and post an xG of .13.  There was absolutely no controversy in the PK call - stone cold handling in the box by Hannibal Mejbri.

What's A Matter U?

We expected a tough match for the Union in Vancouver.  The task was made even more daunting by Carnell's decision to rotate the line up in advance of Tuesday's US Open Cup match at Nashville.  The U were down 3-0 within 29 minutes and it basically never got better as the Whitecaps rolled to a 7-0 win.  Bedoya sort of worked at right back in a game earlier this season but not tonight.  That said, this looked like a team fail.  Even the stats say 7-0 was about right.  Vancouver had 20 shots, 12 on target and an xG of 5.6.

Tuesday was only marginally better as they fell 1-3 to Nashville in the US Open Cup semi-final.  Granted it was no blowout but they still looked pretty weak.  And chippy.  Damiani dodged a red card early on for a straight leg challenge.  He avoided a red card a second time when, while already on a yellow, he attempted to deny a goal with his arm.  Since he failed to stop the goal, it wasn't DOGSO but had the referee noticed that he did touch the ball, it would still have been yellow.  Since that was not reviewable by VAR, he managed to stick around.

Champions League

There were matchday one games. I saw Spurs underwhelm against Villareal but still come away with a 1-0 win.  I saw Newcastle play Barcelona tough for the first half but fail to convert their chances.  This was a problem as Marcus Rashford put in two quality goals in the second half.  A late tally by Anthony Gordon made the score a more respectable 1-2 but it was still a loss.

Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City all came away with first day wins while Chelsea joined Newcastle in losing their opener.

He Might Walk Alone

Patel leaves no doubt which football team he supports
Photo:Reuters

FBI Director Kash Patel wore a Liverpool tie to his Congressional Hearing last week.  Reaction is "mixed." 

Crowded Again

EPL on Saturday and Sunday, Europa Cup on Wednesday and Thursday.  Best match of the weekend looks to be Arsenal - Man City at 11:30 on Sunday on Peacock.  This is an emerging trend - put the best game of the week in this time slot and put it on Peacock.

Newcastle have Bournemouth at 9 am Sunday on USA and Villa are in the same time slot against Sunderland but on Peacock.  Slightly surprised to see Bournemouth as a slight favorite against the Magpies.  For Aston Villa, surely they not only get on the scoreboard but defeat the Black Cats and get their first win of the season.

The Saturday feature match at 12:30 has Man United hosting Chelsea, which sounds tempting but Opta has the Blues as a big favorite even on the road.  Also, this is on USA, not NBC, who has chosen to go with college football (Maryland vs Wisconsin).

There's the Merseyside Derby at 7:30 Saturday on USA.  Four matches at 10.  The USA contest is West Ham - Crystal Palace.  I'd be more interested in Brighton - Spurs on Peacock; not sure why Spurs are heavy underdogs here (27% vs 47% with 26% chance of a draw).  You could also do Burnley - Nottingham Forest or Wolves - Leeds; the latter has relelgation battle written all over it.  There's also a "special" 3 pm match on Saturday with Fulham facing Brentford; if they keep doing this, it won't be a special Saturday afternoon match anymore.

There's a full matchday one schedule for Europa Cup on Wednesday and Thursday.  We hope to check out Aston Villa vs Bologna at 3 pm on Thursday.

The Union look to protect their lead in the conference and the Supporters Shield race as they face New England at Subaru Park on Saturday at 2:30.  The Revolution are languishing in 11th place so this would be the time and place to get things right.

I'm still in Virginia through Sunday so not sure how much I'll get to see.

Where Were We?

Oh right.  Newcastle were winless with two goals in three matches and were saying goodbye to 27 goal scorer Alexander Isak.  Things can only get better?

Can't Get No Respect

Frankly, this is ridiculous.  Nottingham Forest sacked Nuno Espirito Santo just three matches into the 2025/26 season.  His relationship with the owner was already strained and Santo was fairly public that he didn't think much of Edu Gaspar, Forest's new "Head of Global Football."  Probably not ideal but I must ask if the relationship with the owner was so strained, why the eff did Santo get a new three-year contract in June 2025?

The Rodney Dangerfield of EPL Managers?

Santo's record as an EPL manager is pretty clear.  He got Wolves promoted to the Premier League in 17/18, led them to consecutive seventh place finishes in 18/19 and 19/20 and 13th place in 20/21.  He "left "after that season.  His next stop was Spurs.  They got off to a good start for the 21/22 season but Santo was sacked after just 17 matches; Spurs were 8-2-7 at the time but the seven losses were consecutive.  Still, other managers have gotten way more leeway.  After a brief stint in the Saudi Pro League, he returned to the EPL in December 2023 as manager of Nottingham Forest.  Arguably, he saved Forest from relegation that season.  In 24/25, he lead them to a seventh place finish and qualification for UEFA competition for the first time in 30 years.    

Opta has a great article here highlighting how Santo was able to achieve success at Forest.  

Is the guy just unlikeable?  This article from the NYT suggests not.  

I am comforted by the fact that he will be paid by Forest for three years but this is nuts.

But the Levy Was Dry (apologies to Don McLean)

In the category of departures that might be more deserved, Spurs announced last week that Daniel Levy was removed as Tottenham Board Chair.  Details can be had here.  The following two paragraphs offer a good summary of why there was mostly rejoicing from Spurs fan base:

Despite the club routinely challenging in the top half of the table Levy has come under heavy criticism from the fanbase, and last season, multiple protests were held outside of games about the way he has run the club.

Supporters have been frustrated by the wage bill, which is much lower than their biggest rivals, and the constant cycle of head coaches. Frank was the 14th and final permanent manager to work under Levy.

This is likely as big for Spurs as was the departure of Mike Ashley from Newcastle.  

Conversation That Most Definitely Took Place

Michael:  Here's the World Cup draw for the US:

Steve: I thought it was Ukraine and not Russia

Michael: Russia eliminated them in the qualifiers

Steve: But Russians were offside, clearly in Ukrainian territory behind the last defenders

Michael: True but Trump was the ref

Back on the Horse

A packed Saturday 10 am schedule means you will need to choose wisely.

Ange Postecoglou will get an early test at Nottingham Forest as they take on Arsenal at The Emirates Saturday at 7:30; that's on USA.   Five to choose from at 10 am.  We'll be hoping that Newcastle get their first win as they face last place Wolves.  Dennis will be looking for the same as they face Everton;  Opta says that one might be tougher than they'd like .  Both of those are on Peacock as curiously USA chose Fulham - Leeds.  Brighton - Bournemouth or Crystal Palace - Sunderland are your other options.

The 12:30 NBC feature match is a London derby with West Ham hosting Spurs.  There's a bonus 3 pm Saturday match between Brentford and Chelsea on USA.

Just two on Sunday - Burnley Liverpool at 9 on USA and the Manchester derby at 11:30 on Peacock.  This might be a derby in name only as Opta doesn't see much hope for United, giving them just a 16% chance of winning compared to City at 66%.

The Union are out in Vancouver Saturday with a 9:35 start. They are third in the west so this is not a easy fixture.

These Are Not the Results You're Looking For

Correct Obi-wan.  A pile of unsatisfying and/or unexpected outcomes.  Fortunately, the Union were a happy exception.

I did get to see many of the matches using my phone, computer and DVR.  But frankly, mostly what I remember is looking out on the lake and visiting breweries.  I'll do my best.

Deserving of the Small Screen

I am pleased that I figured out how to watch Newcastle - Leeds match at the lake using the DVR I recorded at home.  I could only do that on my phone but the small picture was probably best for this one.  The Magpies came up with another 0-0 draw.  But unlike the draw with Villa, they had little offense, generating just two shots on target and an xG of only .37.  The defense remains strong as they only allowed Leeds two shots on goal and an xG of .66.

Hopefully the additions of Woltemade and Wissa will spark the offense.  Also, maybe the end of the Isak saga will allow everybody to focus on the new season.  Not happy to lose Isak but he was done at Newcastle and we got two solid players to replace him and Wilson.  The equation for me:

Woltemade + Wissa > Isak + Wilson

 I hope my math is correct.

Conversation That Sort of Took Place

Steve: Up 2-0 on Fulham in the 85th minute, Chelsea are "home and hosed."

Dennis:  Whereas Fulham are merely "hosed."

Dennis is referring to the VAR intervention that led to Fulham's first half goal being chalked off.  You can see the play here.  The call looks very soft, especially since Rob Jones did not call it a foul on the field.  I'm sort of okay that the VAR asked Jones to look at it again so it's not necessarily a Salisbury mistake.  But Jones is free to take a second look and conclude he got it right in the first place.  

All the secondary chatter about what a great goal it was and how it spoiled Josh King's first Premier League goal is nonsense.  The plummage don't enter into it.  It could have been the scruffiest goal ever and this would still be a questionable call.  An unfortunate footnote for Fulham is that after they played Chelsea even up for almost the entire first half, the Blues took the lead with a goal at 45+9.  The reason there was so much stoppage time?  Partly for the lengthy VAR review.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Only Half Did

Steve: Surely Bournemouth are going to pay for not getting a second goal against Spurs.

Michael: Apparently not this time.  And please don't call me Shirley

Spurs went full hangover mode after last week's big win over Man City, going quietly into the night with a 0-1 loss at home to Bournemouth. 

Fergie Time

When I first saw that Man United defeated lightly regarded Burnley 3-2 on a PK in the 97th minute, all I could think of was the old story about how, during Alex Ferguson's tenure at Man U, referees provided extra stoppage time to allow the Red Devils to get a result.  Looking at the replay here, this one looks legit.  The play occurs at about 90:48 but VAR review takes long enough that the kick isn't actually taken until 96:08; thus, you can't say this one was in Fergie Time.  As for the call itself, it's a shirt pull that continues into the box and is a totally a PK.  

Would have been interesting to see Amirom's fate if it had ended 2-2.  

Almost Nobody's Perfect

 Arsenal, perhaps destined to be a bridesmaid for a fourth straight year, fell 1-0 to Liverpool.  The Reds are now the only team with a perfect 3-0-0 record.  Nottingham Forest were surprisingly thumped 0-3 by West Ham so the only other undefeated sides are Chelsea (2-1-0) and Crystal Palace (1-2-0).

Profit and Sustainability Rules - Who Do They Protect?

Doesn't look like it's the little guys:

I did go back and check the Chelsea numbers.  They actually did fund their big spending (Pedro, Delap,  Gittens, Garnacho [(why?], etc) out of sales (Madueke, Nkunku, Felix, Petrovic, etc.).  Liverpool's net spend would have been bigger had they not dumped Diaz and Nunez.

Gappage!

Damiani gets the game winner

The Union came away with a huge 1-0 win in their six pointer with Cincinnati.  The stats say it was mostly even; shots were 15-15, shots on target were 5-4 Cincy and xG was 2.0-1.8 favor the U.  The difference came down to an incredible header from Bruno Damiani, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Iloski's cross wasn't bad but he didn't exactly put the ball on a platter for Damiani.  That was some work by Bruno to twist his body and generate enough power and accuracy to get it past the keeper.  The last 30 minutes were harrowing after Makhanya got himself sent off for a second yellow.  Mixed thoughts on whether that was a yellow card but it's a challenge he shouldn't be making already on a yellow.

The win gives the Union a five point bulge over Cincinnati in the East and a slim one point lead over San Diego in the Supporters Sheld race.  Alas, with four matches still in hand, Miami would have one more point than the U if they were to win all four.  

International Break

EPL is quiet and MLS has a very limited schedule.  Plenty of UEFA World Cup Qualifiers on the Fox networks if you need something to watch.

Refereeing starts this Saturday so I'm happy about the break because the first day is usually nuts.

A Pyrrhic Loss

Well, I did see more than I expected so as the rain sets in here at Keuka Lake, I guess I can put a few thoughts down on paper.

And A Child Shall Lead Them

Liverpool was always going to be a tough match for Newcastle.  An arguably unlucky deflection put the Magpies in the hole despite going toe-to-toe with last year's champions.  Things got more difficult when Anthony Gordon sprinted across the pitch and raked his boot down van Dijk's leg for a straight red.  Down a goal and down a man, this looked like a long road back.  The road got even longer as they conceded a second goal right at the start of the second half.

No sweet 16: Rio Ngumoha spoils Newcastle comeback
Photo: 2025 Getty Images

But what's this?  First, they got a header goal from Guimaraes at 57 minutes.  Momentum shifted and they looked like they were playing 11 v 11.  Then Osula got the equalizer at 88 minutes.  A draw seemed likely, though there would still be 11 minutes of stoppage time.  Newcastle, perhaps unwisely, kept up the attack and controlled the ball for much of that time.  They paid dearly for that as Rio Ngumoha, four days shy of his 17th birthday, was left wide open on the left side of the box and cooly slotted the winner past Pope at 90+10.

The xG of 1.51-.76 favor the Magpies backs up the notion that Newcastle were solid here.  No doubt this was good viewing for the neutral.  But, as we have noted here before, you get no points for moral victories or draws.   The other problem is that it came at a heavy cost.  Gordon will miss three matches due to suspension.  Tonali injured his shoulder in a fall and no return date is listed yet.  Joelinton injured his groin and also has no return date listed.  Schar sustained a concussion and looks to be out until 9/13.  So, other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?  The international break can't come soon enough.

At Least We Scored

Aston Villa stumbled at Brentford, falling 1-0 to the Bees.  The Villans look highly dysfunctional right now and it's not clear why as they have not had massive personnel changes.  Also looking for their first goal are Wolves.  They followed up their 4-0 loss to Man City with another "clean sheet," dropping a 1-0 decision to Bournemouth.

Unbeaten Ranks Shrink

After just two weeks, only three sides are a perfect 2-0-0, including Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool.  Two more - Chelsea and Nottingham Forest - are unbeaten with a win and draw.  These seem incredibly small this early in the season.  Other random thoughts:

- The Thomas Frank era at Tottenham is off to a flying start; Spurs took the measure of Man City 2-0 at The Etihad no less. Though xG (1.37-1.25 favor City) suggests a closer match, live it looked like Spurs deserved the win.

- Arsenal reminded Leeds that this is indeed the Premier League with a 5-0 spanking of the newly promoted side. 

- West Ham further established their credentials as a relegation candidate with a 5-1 loss to Chelsea

Wither Man U?

Not exactly the turnaround they were looking for.  The 0-1 loss to Arsenal wasn't awful but a 1-1 draw to Fulham can't be good news.  Worse, they followed it up with a mid-week loss in the Carabao Cup to Grimsby Town FC.  That would be League Two (fourth tier) Grimsby Town. True, they lost on PKs but they only got to that point courtesy of a Harry Maguire goal in the 89th minute.  Amorim is an early favorite in the sack race.

Champions League Draw

Newcastle's run of good luck continued with the annoucement of the Champions League fixtures.  They get PSG and Bayer Leverkusen away and face Barcelona at home.  Details can be had here.

Whoop De Doo At Subaru Park

There was better news to be had in Chester as the Union extinguished the Chicago Fire 4-0.  If you don't believe your own eyes, check the stats.  Shots were 23-9, shots on target 7-2 and xG 3.6-.6.  It was a thorough beat down.  Dennis (AstonVilla) and his friend Jeremy (Wolves) were in attendance and "were reveling at getting to watch one of our teams at least score an effing goal tonight."  The win moved them back to first in the East and in the Supporters Shield thanks to Cincinnati's loss to NYCFC and San Diego's draw with Portland.

Continued Compromised Viewing

It's hard to justify sitting inside watching football when there are lakes, trails, hills, breweries and vineyards just outside the front door.  

Seeing Chelsea - Fulham at 7:30 on Saturday is a possibility because, well, you gotta eat breakfast.  The 10 am matches might not be exciting enough to keep me from other activities.  Wolves - Everton, Spurs - Bournemouth, Man United - Burnley and Sunderland - Brentford don't necessarily get the juices flowing.  If I were home, I'd be torn between Spurs (any hangover after last week's big win?) or Man U (does Amorim survive anything less than a win here?).

Leeds - Newcastle is problematic on a number of fronts.  It's at 12:30 and I don't have DVR up here.  Plus, the Magpies roster is going to be compromised. Opta, with Newcastle at 45% for the win and 26% for the draw, is much more confident than me.

Sunday is departure day from the lakes so any viewing will be by DVR later that night.  Two 9 am matches are Brighton - Man City and Nottingham Forest - West Ham.  The match of the week is at 11:30 featuring Liverpool versus Arsenal.  And there's a bonus 2 pm match with Aston Villa - Crystal Palace.  Opta really likes Villa in that one (50% win and 25% draw) despite their recent form.

The Union have a massive away match Saturday night as they take on second place Cincinnati.

Waiting until the last possible minute to comment on the Isak situation.  There is late word that Newcastle may have reached an agreement with Stuttgart to sign Nick Woltemade.  Though he is not really in Isak's class, he does appear to be a step up from Callum Wilson and therefore be enough for Newcastle to let Isak go to Liverpool.  We'll see.

International break next week but we'll probably still stop in to report on the weekend and to report on what happened with Isak.

And We're Off

Well that went well.  Sort of.

A Fair Point

In the immediate aftermath of Newcastle's 0-0 draw with Aston Villa, I thought the Magpies had maybe stolen a point.  Upon further review, the result looks right.They fairly well dominated play in the first half, created multiple chances but failed to score.  In other words, they looked like a team missing their leading scorer.  Villa manager Unai Emery must have figured something out at halftime because those chances became few and far between in the second half.  This was not a complete role reversal though as it wasn't like Villa piled up the scoring chances.  Konsa's red card at 66 minutes (deemed soft by both me and Dennis - Gordon sold it well) pretty much ended the excitement here.  Mildly annoying that though down a man, Aston Villa was the side that looked much more interested in getting all three points.

Tonali was a beast in the mid-field

On the silver linings side of the ledger, the defensive performance was outstanding.  Villa managed just three shots, all on target, and an xG of .3  Tonali bossed the midfield as they say while Burn and Schar were pretty much flawless at center back.  Before the match I would have gladly taken a draw in this one and even afterwards still feel that way.

Another Week in Purgatory

As of publication, there is still no resolution to the Alexander Isak stalemate.  Isak claims there were promises made about allowing him to move on while Newcastle officials contend they were very clear about what they might be able to do.  The NYT times offers a detailed update here; Mona Lisa Vito (cousin Vinny's fiancee') offers a much shorter summary here.  For those interested in an esoteric legal loophole that might benefit Isak, check out this article from ESPN.  My cursory read left me thinking it might work if Isak is willing to go outside the EPL but not so sure it works if Liverpool is his intended destination.  

Questions From Week One

- Based on the 4-2 win over Bournemouth featuring two goals from new transfer Hugo Ekitike, why the hell does Liverpool need Isak?

- Was that a Club World Cup hangover we saw from Chelsea in their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace?

- Did we really learn anything from Man City's and Spurs' easy wins over soft opposition (Wolves and Burnley respectively)?  BTW, Spurs - Burnley gives us this week's YouTubeableMoment, a quality cross from Kudus and an even better finish from Richarlison.

- Are Man United, who fell 0-1 to Arsenal despite playing pretty well, headed for another disappointing season?

- Does the 0-3 loss to Sunderland mean West Ham really are relegation fodder?

- Same question for Everton after a 0-1 loss to Leeds?

Wood on his way to a second goal
Photo:Bradley Collyer / AP

- Does Chris Wood's brace against Brentford mean he will again be a 20 goal scorer and maybe help
Nottingham Forest forget that Elanga doesn't play for them anymore? 

- Will there be anything to separate Brighton and Fulham by the end of the season or does their 1-1 draw mean they'll finish level on points?

  

This Week in Refereeing: It's DOGSO, Not DPGSO

Ekitike is a long way from goal (BBC photo)

The play generating the most attention was the no DOGSO call on Bournemouth defender Marcos Senesi.  I could not find a video of the play but the picture (left) gives you an idea of where the incident occurred.  The ball clearly hit Senesi in the hand coming off his thigh but as it bounded away from him, he took a swipe at it, touching it and keeping Ekitike from getting possession.  The argument is that Ekitike would have then taken the ball and gone in unchallenged.  VAR Michael Oliver reviewed the play and said there was no handling and it was too far from goal to be DOGSO anyway.  He clearly missed Senesi's swipe at the ball.   EPL sort of amended their explanation to say that even if the handball had been called, it would not have met the criteria for DOGSO.  I still think they got the call right even if they botched the explanation.  Dennis and I seem to be in the minority on this point. Ekitike was level with Senesi when the handling occurred and probably would have had a head start to the goal.  But Senesi, unburdened by the necessity to control the ball, has at least 40 yards to catch up.  This feels like a possible, not obvious, goal scoring opportunity.  That VAR Michael Oliver so quickly dismissed the accidental handball and didn't see the second, deliberate, handling was not good.  But I think even if he does, he will decide it's not DOGSO and therefore can't intervene.

Then we had the rarely called attacker within one meter of the defensive wall on a free kick. You can see that play here.  VAR went for the less subjective call on this one and opened up a can of worms.  VAR interventions on this call are extremely rare, possibly because this infraction occurs on almost every free kick.  As I watched the replay, I thought the VAR intervention would be about a foul on Guehi pushing Caicado to clear space for the kick.  Maybe the VAR thought he was on safer ground for the objective call of being within a meter as opposed to the subjective call of a foul he didn't signal for at the time.  I would have gone with the foul.

We finish with James Tarkowski's handling vs Leeds.  The official story is that "he leaned into the ball with his arm." You can sort of see the play here.  Hmm, looks to me like he leaned into the ball with his body, which coincidentally has an arm attached that was practically pinned at his side.  I suppose you could go with the view that this was close enough that the VAR shouldn't have intervened, which leaves it as just a questionable call on the field that shouldn't have been made.

It's Hard to Beat a Team Twice in One Week Three Times in a Season Fifteen Times in a Row

The Union's long unbeaten streak against the Red Bulls ended Saturday night with a 1-0 defeat in Harrison NJ.  While they maybe didn't deserve to lose, they certainly didn't deserve to win.  The U managed just one shot on target and that was Damiani's PK stopped by Coronel.  Though xG favors the Union (1.5-.9), when you adjust for the PK it's about even.  Adding injury to insult, Blake tweaked his suspect hamstring again and left the match after just 28 minutes.  Adding insult to injury, Blake's replacement A.J. Rick might have been somewhat at fault on the Red Bull goal, seen here.  Of course, we can also ask why was Nealis so wide open in the box.  

The loss dropped the U into second in the East and third in the Supporters Shield.  And Miami, just six points back, still have three matches in hand.  Advanced math says that could put them three ahead of the Union when they finally catch up.

Let's Do That Again 

I'll be away this week which means limited and/or distracted viewing.  The dance card is a mixed bag.  The two top fixtures for my money are Man City - Tottenham at 7:30 on Saturday (USA) and Newcastle - Liverpool at 3:00 pm on Monday USA).  Opta gives Spurs no chance against City (62% win, 19% draw) but I still want to see how this plays out.  I expect the St James' Park faithful will give Liverpool bloody hell for going after Isak in the first place.  Probably won't help the Magpies get a point though.

You can get a head start to the weekend with a London Derby between West Ham and Chelsea; that's Friday at 3 on USA.  The 10 am Saturday games don't exactly thrill, though Burnley - Sunderland is a good relegation battle preview.  Your other choices are Brentford - Aston Villa (the USA TV match)  or Bournemouth - Wolves.  The "feature" NBC 12:30 is Arsenal - Leeds; Opta has that at 70% win for Arsenal, 17% draw.  

Sunday's 9 am choices aren't awful as Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest (Peacock) should be competitive and Everton hosting Brighton (USA) might be close as well.  The 11:30 match is Fulham hosting Man United (USA).

Union get Chicago at home in a good chance to bounce back from the disappointment in New Jersey.

No guarantee of a post next week but we'll see how things play out.