Mediocrity It Is

At least for the moment.

By itself, Newcastle's 4-2 loss Brentford at their place isn't a disaster given that the Bees haven't lost at home yet this year.  The Magpies did rally twice from first half deficits to level things.  Expected goals slightly favor Newcastle (1.64 -1.47).  And the last goal was in the 90th minute when Newcastle were working hard to rescue a draw so the margin of the loss is slightly overstated.  

Mbeumo would look good in a Newcastle kit; at least
he wouldn't be scoring against us (Photo Getty Images)

Still, we must conclude that the glass is about 7/8ths empty.  First, while the first half performance (2-2) was acceptable, they went silent offensively in the second half.  Of their 16 shots, only three were on target.  Brentford's xG was just 1.47 so either the Bees were lucky or Newcastle made some defensive mistakes.  Thinking it's the latter.  Bryan Mbeumo (a possible Magpie transfer target in January) ghosted past Hall far too easily on the first goal. The second Brentford goal came from an "own assist" as Harvey Barnes made a perfect back pass to Wissa, who took a few dribbles then made nice finish.  The game winner was a free kick from the Brentford half of the pitch that landed untouched in the Newcastle penalty area before Nathan Collins slotted it past Pope.  You get the picture.  

We are who we thought we were - a team that will struggle to stay in the top half of the table.

Liverpool Fail To Get Points

Darragh: First to not let Liverpool get any points since
Nottingham Forest on 9/14

Of course, it was Storm Darragh, not any EPL side, that gets the credit.  The Merseyside Derby - the last scheduled at historic Goodison Park - was postponed by high winds and rain.  Given the weather we saw at most of the other venues on Saturday, I'm guessing the threshold for postponing due to high winds must be something over 40 mph.  

Many in the chase pack did not take advantage of Liverpool's off day.  Arsenal could manage only a 1-1 draw with Fulham, seeing a potential game winner ruled out for offside in the 88th minute.  Same for Man City, who's woes continued with a 2-2 draw at Selhurst Park against Crystal Palace; they had to rally twice from one goal deficits to get that.  I suppose we should include Brighton's 2-2 draw with Leicester in this group too.

Three sides who did take advantage were Chelsea (4-3 over Spurs), Aston Villa (a decidely mediocre 1-0 win over Southampton, albeit with a rotated lineup) and Nottingham Forest (a bit of a lucky 3-2 victory at Old Trafford).  Not coincidentally, those three sides now sit in the top six.

The Silver Lining Is Getting Really Hard To Find

The only good news for Ipswich this weekend was that the two clubs behind them - Wolves and Southampton - both lost.  I guess Everton not playing was good too.  The dark cloud part is that the Tractor Boys lost another close one at home in a most disturbing way.  They carried a 1-0 lead over Bournemouth late into the match before the Cherries scored in the 87th minute and then again at 90+5 to take all three points.  To make matters worse, the three sides immediately ahead of them in the table all got points.  Leicester and Palace got draws while West Ham got three in a win over Wolves.

Not A Good Sign

When Google text wants to autocorrect your name from Amorim to "a moron."  Ruben Amoron Amirom continues to find life in the EPL not so easy as Man United lost to Forest 2-3 at Old Tratford.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: How many kits do you have and why is one of them claret?

Steve: Moichandizing. Never underestimate the power of the Schwartz.

Dennis: Newcastle the Breakfast Cereal is just beer, right?

Steve: Nailed it.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis:  Did you say that Arteta is a born-again Christian

Steve: No I said he's giving Jesus another chance

Mixed Results in Europe

The quintessential better to be lucky than good:
Barkley's shot took a massive deflection and Villa win 3-2

Aston Villa did not exactly shake the cobwebs out but did manage an important 3-2 win over RB Leipzig in their Champions League match on Tuesday.  Ross Barkley got the game winner but the YouTubeableMoment was the strike from Jhon Duran minutes after he entered the match.  Dennis points out that most players do not score on that play simply because they would never consider taking that shot.  Liverpool got the win but hardly impressed in a 1-0 result over Girona.  Still, this was better than Man City, who lost again, this time 2-0 to Juventus.  Only Arsenal coasted in a 3-0 win over Monaco.  

Liverpool are still top the table with a perfect record and need just one point from the last two group stage matches to get a bye into the knockout round.  Arsenal and Aston Villa are third and fifth respectively and I believe only need one more point to guarantee a spot in the playoffs for a knockout berth; of course they could also still qualify for a bye.  Man City's prospects aren't as rosy. They sit 22nd and have just a one point cushion for a playoff berth.  In other words, they have work to do.

Over in Europa Cup, Spurs had to work their butts off to get a 1-1 draw with Rangers; they are still looking good for a spot in the playoffs for a knockout round berth.  Man United saw their stock rise with a 2-1 come from behind win over Viktoria Plezn (not even sure who she is) and are looking good for advancement to the playoffs as well.  Chelsea cruised to a 3-1 win over Astana in Europa Conference League; they are still top of the table, perfect through five matches.

Wait, so you're telling me that of the seven EPL teams competing in Europe, Man City is the only one in jeopardy of getting bounced out in the group stage?

About Those Two Goal Leads

You know we don't buy that old saw that a two goal lead is the most dangerous in soccer.  The EPL coverage made sure that you knew that Spurs and Brighton both coughed up two goal leads this weekend.  Yeah, but Nottingham Forest and Brentford didn't; okay Brentford didn't get their two goal cushion until the 90th minute but it still counts.  We also note that mid-week, Arsenal and Chelsea both survived that "most dangerous of leads" and that Juventus seemed to have no trouble protecting their two goal margin against Man City.  

ICYMI

The TV ratings suggest that maybe you did.  The LA Galaxy bested NY Red Bulls 2-1 in the MLS Cup Final.  The match was fun for a while, with three goals in 28 minutes.  Tricked me into watching the whole thing.  We note that LA were up 2-0 and did not lose so there's another data point.  Also, you can read about the TV ratings here; in 2022 the figure was 2.16m, 2023 was 890k and 2024 was 468k.  Note that 2022 is not directly comparable with 2023 and 2024 because people may have watched those last two on MLS Season Pass.  We can't know because Apple won't release their viewing numbers.  

College Kids Can Do It Too

BFS Track and Field Guru Jack W sends us this video, showing that golazos are not entirely the province of the pros. 

But Apparently"Old"Guys Can't

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends us this video that highlights the downs and downs of Sunday afternoon pickup games.  Not sure which is, uh, "funnier" - the pulled hamstring or the wide open shot that clanks against the post.

Less Frantic

Well, a little bit anyway.  You can do six fixtures live this weekend, thanks to an extra Sunday slot.  Some interesting matchups from various parts of the table.  And no 7:30 Saturday fixture.

There are four choices at 10 am Saturday.  By contract, we have to watch Newcastle - Leicester from Saint James' Park on USA; Opta has the Magpies as big favorites but I'm not buying it.  There's a big relegation six-pointer with Wolves hosting Ipswich.  Your other two choices are Arsenal - Everton or Liverpool -Fulham; with the home field advantage, we don't see Arsenal or Liverpool struggling in either, so of course you should watch them.

Love the 12:30 feature match on NBC between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa.  The two are level on points with Forest having a one goal advantage on goal differential.  We note that those differentials are just +1 and 0 yet they sit fifth and sixth respectively in the table; one might ask how they got that far up the table.  Opta says it's close and that's probably a reflection of Forest being at home; to me it seems like this is a chance for a top six team to expose a pretender.

On Sunday you can warm up for the Manchester derby with Brighton - Crystal Palace at 9.  The derby is at 11:30; Opta has City as a healthy favorite but there's been nothing healthy about their recent form.  Not that Man United have shone either; they're behind Newcastle in the table for crying out loud.  The Sunday bonus at 2 pm has Chelsea - Brentford (USA) or Southampton - Spurs (Peacock).  The week concludes with Bournemouth - West Ham at 3 pm on Sunday.

Fun stuff

Consistently Inconsistent

Originally this was going to be a post about how mediocrity would be a step up for Newcastle.  Then they pulled off the unlikely draw with Liverpool.  Better to complain about inconsistency than mediocrity I guess.  Plus, I have lots of company - looking at you Aston Villa and Spurs fans.

.02 Expected Goals?

In Saturday's match with Crystal Palace, Newcastle set a new low for offensive irrelevance.  They managed one shot, not on target and registered an xG of .02.     You have to work really hard to do that badly.  The funny thing was that the Magpies carried a 1-0 lead late into stoppage time thanks to a Palace own goal.  On the one hand, it was frustrating to lose the points on a late goal but on the other, even one point from that showing was grand larceny.  Palace at Selhurst Park is never a piece of cake but this was ridiculous.

Schar just barely gets to the equalizer

So we went into Wednesday's match against a decidedly in-form Liverpool with zero expectations.  What a shock to see them go toe-to-toe with the league leader.  Isak's opening goal (a screamer seen here) was certainly not against the run of play.  The contest went back and forth from there, with Liverpool leveling at 1-1, Newcastle scoring to make in 2-1 and Salah scoring two to put Liverpool up 3-2.  This looked like the reverse of Saturday - no points for a good effort.  They rescued a point on a free kick into the box by Guimaraes that Fabian Schar somehow reached before it went over the end line and slipped into the goal.  An easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  I saw several references to this match as the best game of the year.  Sometimes it's okay if it's your team involved in a great game for the neutral.

WDWWLDDLLWWLDD

No, that's not Welsh for "hello" but rather Newcastle's form over the season's first 14 matches.  They don't have a website anymore because they can't put three w's together.  As the euphoria of Wednesday's draw wears off, we awake to the reality that this is a wildly inconsistent team sitting 12th in the table.  

When Did Virgil van Dijk Become A Thug?

Twice during the Newcastle match, van Dijk "ran into" Newcastle players not any where near the ball.  First, the 6'5" defender clocked 5'10" Lewis Hall for which he was called for a foul.  Then he went after "bigger" game in the form of 6'0" Anthony Gordon, making sure he got his shoulder into Gordon's head.  He got away with that one, presumably because the referee did not see it and was not red card worthy and therefore not subject to VAR.  I used to like him.

A League of Their Own?

After a relatively easy 2-0 win over Man City on Sunday, Liverpool were looking to be in a division of their own.  The draw with Newcastle (you're welcome, rest of the league) slowed that roll a little but the Reds still have have a seven point lead over both Chelsea and Arsenal and are up nine points on Man City.  

Dropping Points

Only three sides failed to drop points this week.  Chelsea got wins over Aston Villa and Southampton.  Arsenal beat West Ham and Man United (surprisingly easily on two corners).   Bournemouth handled Wolves and Tottenham. The Villa loss to Chelsea was more of an issue of performance rather than result, as that was always a tough match.  They did rebound with a solid win over Brentford but their inconsistency is troubling.  Spurs came away with just one point from matches with Fulham and Bournemouth.  At the dark end of the street, Ipswich, Wolves and West Ham got nothing.

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.  Hey Michael, you're still ahead of Newcastle,if only on goal differential. 

A Sliver of a Silver Lining

Mateta's goal was the difference in the relegation
six-pointer between Ipswich and Palace
Photograph: Tony O Brien/Reuters

An Ipswich fan would be hard pressed to find anything good that came out of week of 1-0 losses to Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace, especially given that the latter is a relegation rival.  The good news is that another relegation rival - Wolves - lost their matches 4-2 (vs Bournemouth) and 4-0 (to Everton).  Based on the relative margin of losses, Ipswich moved past Wolves and into 18th place based on the change in goal differential.  Surprised how tepid both sides were in the Palace match; I'd been looking for some intensity given their positions in the nether region of the table but it was a real snoozer.  

Another Busy Week Ahead

Saturday dawns with a 7:30 Merseyside Derby, likely the last at Goodison Park.  Unfortunately the schedule makers put both Aston Villa (vs Southampton) and Newcastle (at Brentford) at 10 am.  The latter is sadly a clash of mid-table sides that Newcastle need to win if they are to be taken seriously as a top half of table team.  Actually, Villa is in the same situation only more so; they simply have to beat Southampton. The other 10 am choice is Crystal Palace hosting Man City.  Best choice for neutral is probably Brentford - Newcastle.

The 12:30 feature match on NBC is Man United - Nottingham Forest.  That would be 13th place versus 7th place.  Despite position in the table, United are solid favorites.  Even more fun is that if they do win, they will pass Forest in the table, an indication of how compressed the mid-table is.

Sunday has the marquee match of the weekend with Spurs hosting Chelsea (11:30 on USA).  Even on the road, Chelsea are healthy favorites in this one.  The three 9 am appetizers are Fulham - Arsenal, Ipswich - Bournemouth and Leicester - Brighton.  Not much to recommend there but we'll probably go with Ipswich as we have taken a sudden interest in the Tractor Boys struggle to avoid relegation.

Speaking of relegation, there is a Monday match featuring West Ham and Wolves.  Six points above the drop zone, maybe the Hammers aren't in relegation jeopardy yet but they need to win matches like this one to keep it that way.

It's also a European competition week, which means matches Tuesday-Thursday.  We thank the schedulers for staggering the start times to maximize viewing.  Tuesday you can do Girona - Liverpool at 12:45 and RB Leipzig - Aston Villa at 3.  Wednesday the EPL sides play concurrently with Juventus - Man City and Arsenal -Monaco both at 3 pm.  Thursday you can do a triple header! Start with Astana - Chelsea at 10:30, Viktoria Plezn (I didn't make that up) - Man United at 12:45 and Rangers - Spurs at 3.  Hey no fair, I have a planning board meeting Thursday that means I might only see Spurs.

If you care about this, the MLS Cup Final is Saturday at 4 pm between the LA Galaxy (2 seed) and NY Red Bulls (7 seed) on Fox.  Both were 1-0 winners in their conference finals.  I did watch both (Laura and Mackenzie were watching other stuff on Saturday night); the matches weren't awful but I remember little except LA scored late when it looked like it might go to extra time.  

Not many off days in December.