Wrong Again?

Once again we were largely off the mark with our assessment of the which games were likely to offer better viewing.  We will put some of the blame on the Opta predictions. Also annoying was the dropped points for BFS sides.

I Waited All Weekend For That?

Was Wilson fouled?VAR didn't send the ref to the monitor. RICHARD LEE/REX/SHUTTERSTOCK

I wasn't expected an easy time of it facing West Ham even at home.  I was expecting something better than that though.  Newcastle did have the early run of play but didn't really threaten.  The Hammers first offensive foray generated a corner, from which Soucek neatly headed in the opening goal.  First score from a corner for them this season, first one allowed by the Magpies.  Tried to shrug it off but unlike at Forest two weeks ago, the early tally did not shake Newcastle from their torpor.  When Wan-Bissaka turned another counter into the second goal, this match seemed over.  And it was; 2-0 was the final.  This was a true turkey of a performance as they generated just two shots on target.  Given that they took 18 total shots and had an xG of 1.57, we can fairly blame this loss on the lack of clinical finishing, a phrase I'm pretty sure we've used with respect to this team more than once this season.  They blew a chance to move into sixth and now sit 10th, near the bottom of mid-table.

The Dreaded Interesting Match For the Neutrals

D'oh; Tielemans reacts to his PK miss
Jacob King / PA Images / Profimedia

The news from Villa Park was very similar, where Aston Villa struggled against Crystal Palace, a side
they should be able to handle with relative ease.  Instead, they spent the match chasing the Eagles and could only manage a 2-2 draw.  The early goal by Sarr was not all that disturbing, except for the fact that Villa seem highly susceptible to easy counterattacks these days.  The general confidence seemed well-founded when Watkins leveled at 36 minutes.  With Tielemans all set to convert a PK right before halftime, things were looking good.  Except he missed and within a minute, Palace scored at the other end.  Ross Barkley rescued a point for Villa with a  header goal in the 77th minute.  All in all, an entertaining match, which is exactly what Aston Villa didn't need.

We Do the Maddison Blues (apologies to George Thorogood)

As expected, Man City jumped all over Tottenham right from the get go.  Except it was James Maddison who opened the scoring with a clinical one touch finish off a Kulusevski cross.  We make that play this week's YouTubeableMoment.  More domination by City leading to a second goal against the run of play by Maddison, assisted by Son this time.  Continued pressure from City the rest of the way during which Spurs added two more for a final of 4-0.  This leads to the question of how many goals do you have score against the run of play before you really can't call it the run of play anymore?  Sure, Man City had 57.6% of the possession and 23 shots (vs 9 for Spurs).  But Spurs had more shots on target (7-5) and the better xG (2.69-2.10).  Rock away your blues indeed.

Meet the New Boss, Same As the Old Boss (apologies to The Who)

Not much of a new manager bounce for Man United, as they could do no better than a 1-1 draw at Ipswich.  Ruben Amorin saw his team jump out to a 1-0 lead with a goal from Marcus Rashford in just the second minute.  That was all the scoring the Red Devils would manage and Ipswich leveled things just before halftime.  And 1-1 was how it ended.  Kind of like the Man City - Spurs match statistically.  United had more possession (nearly 60%) but shots were even and Ipswich had more shots on target (6-4) and better xG (1.73-.97).  Amorin has been quite public that he thinks the team will need time to adapt to his methods.  That's fine but given the average tenure of managers (not counting caretakers) at Man United has been about two years, probably don't want to take too long. 

That Must Have Been Some Cushion

So Man City have lost three straight EPL matches and yet they still sit second in the table, one point ahead Chelsea, Arsenal and Brighton.  Brighton have gained six points, Chelsea five and Arsenal four over the last three matches.  City's stumbles have brought some teams closer but it would be silly to right them off at this point, partly because it's not clear the chase pack is of the highest quality.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: Did VAR Michael Oliver say that was a foul in the small of the back?

Steve: No, he said there was small contact in the back, not worthy of a foul.

Wolverhampton Officials Questioned As To Whereabouts at 5:10 pm on Sunday

As reported here, VAR service was temporarily shut down during the Ipswich - Man United contest after a fire alarm forced the evacuation of the control center at Stockley Park.  The outage wasn't all that long and no incidents requiring VAR attention occurred during the shutdown.

Sensing possible foul play from disgruntled parties, EPL official developed a short list of suspects after reviewing this chart prepared by ESPN.

Wolves officials were scampering for alibis.

The View From Europe

For the Champions League, the EPL sides looked to have continued their domestic league form.  Liverpool (2-0 over Real Madrid) and Arsenal (5-1 over Sporting) stayed hot.  Aston Villa put up another mediocre performance and managed only a 0-0 draw at home with Juventus.  Man City fared even worse, snatching a 3-3 draw from the jaws of victory, surrending three late goals to Feyernoord.  Liverpool are perfect through five matchdays and have a two point lead at the top.  Arsenal's win puts them in the top eight while Aston Villa are now in the playoff group at 9th, as are Man City at 17th.  

Tottenham coughed up a late goal and drew with Roma 2-2.  Man United did better, albeit against an easier opponent, getting a 3-2 win over Bodo/Glint.  Both are now outside the automatic eight spots but do look good for advancement to the playoff phase at 9th and 12th.  Chelsea didn't exactly blow Heidenheim away at 2-0 but they remain perfect through four matches.

In short, all seven EPL sides look good to continue in Europe for a while.

How Ya Gonna Keep 'Em Down on the Farm?

Speaking of Feyernood, former Union striker Julian Carranza started in that match against Man City.  He had quiet game, one shot and 26 touches in 72 minutes.  But it does highlight the dilemma faced by MLS sides. Why would Carranza want to stick around Philly when he can be playing Champions League football against the best clubs in Europe?  The answer of course, is that he wouldn't.

Be A Shame If Something Happened to Your Playoffs

The MLS playoff bracket took two more hits this weekend as No. 1 seed LAFC fell 1-2 to Seattle and No.7 Red Bull advanced to the Eastern Conference final with a win over NYC.  The Galaxy and Orlando did make it through as No. 2 and No. 4 seeds.  So the East final is 4 v 7 while the West features 2 v 4.  Perfect.  Both matches are Saturday with Orlando vs Red Bulls at 7:30 and LA Galaxy vs Seattle at 10.  On MLS Season Pass.  Nuff said.

Twice the Fun

This is two match match week for the EPL.  Match day 13 goes from Friday - Sunday and Match day 14 runs Tuesday - Thursday.  The "big one" is first place Liverpool hosting second place Man City at 11:00 on Sunday.  Already up by eight points,  a win for the Reds would give them an unfathomable 11-point lead.  The two teams couldn't be in more opposite forms. Liverpool haven't lost in 15 matches across all competitions; Man City haven't won in six. Opta has it 45% for Liverpool win, 25% draw, 30% City win.

A second match to keep an eye on is Chelsea - Aston Villa at 8:30 on Sunday.  Opta has Chelsea as a big favorite and that's probably fair given Aston Villa's recent run of mediocre form.  Still holding out hope that the Villans make this a contest.  Wednesday's Arsenal - Man United fixture might be good too.

Don't forget a welcome Friday afternoon fixture -  the non-derby between Brighton and Southampton.  As noted in the article, they are too far apart and they really don't care about each other for this to be a derby.  I'll still watch, especially on a holiday Friday afternoon.

Newcastle have Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park Saturday at 10 (Peacock), then get Liverpool at home on Wednesday at 2:30 (aslo Peacock).  I'm bracing for one point out of the two contests and hope I'm not being too optimistic.

Opta numbers for the mid-week matches aren't available yet but I'm guessing Fulham - Brighton on Thursday (Peacock) may be predicted as the closest match this season.  Brighton are the better side overall but not by that much and with this one at Craven Cottage, Fulham could make it a close one.  For those watching relegation developments, you'll want to check out Ipswich - Crystal Palace on Tuesday at 2:30 (Peacock).  

Hope you enjoy your Monday off.

Turkey With All the Trimmings

Nine straight days of football sounds like a cornucopia to me.

In Poch we trust? (Getty Images)

Not much to write about this week though.  I didn't see the first leg of the US - Jamaica CONCACAF Nations League quarter; looks like the highlight might have been Matt Turner's PK save in a 1-0 US win.  I did watch the second leg, a 4-2 US victory that didn't seem that close.  That may have been because I was thinking about the aggregate score and at one point early in the second half it was 4-0.  This was the most reliably dangerous I can remember the US being in a while.  Pulisic's opening goal is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Sure, there wasn't much action this week but it could have been the moment on any packed week.  The cross from McKennie was perfectly weighted and the finish was sublime.  The US will face Panama in one semi while Canada and Mexico will square off the in the other on March 20th.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Some Jamaican players missed the second leg because they had their credit cards stolen?

Steve: No, they couldn't travel with the team because they lost their visas

Our Cup Runneth Over

There's an EPL match week spread over three days this weekend followed by three days of European competition and the EPL picks up on Friday for three more days.

We're back to those 7:30 Saturday matches but at least Leicester - Chelsea will be on USA so you can DVR it - and possibly fast forward through as it doesn't look like a close one.   The five choices at 10 am are a mixed bag.  We will be going with Aston Villa - Crystal Palace, though we are expecting (hoping?) it will be an easy day for the Villans.  The best choice for the neutral is probably Bournemouth hosting Brighton; the Cherries are near the bottom of a huge mid-table but home field advantage should make this an interesting contest.  Certainly better than, say, Arsenal hosting Nottingham Forest; though they are level on points, the Gunners are big favorites here (68/14/19 at Opta). A little surprised to see Everton a slight favorite over Brentford, suggesting that this one might be decent too.  Your last choice is Fulham - Wolves. 

The NBC feature match is one that likely won't bring Michael B out of retirement.  Spurs have to face Man City at the Etihad, never an easy task.  Add in that City have lost four straight and it seems even more daunting.  Opta thinks so too with the percentages at 60/20/20.

Sunday has just two fixtures and neither look all that great.  Liverpool face Southampton on the coast at 9 am while Ipswich host Man United at 11:30.  Both are on USA.

Wait, what about Newcastle?  They are Monday at 3 pm, facing West Ham at Saint James' Park.  I have mildly positive expectations for this one.  The Hammers lost to Forest 0-3 and a week later Newcastle beat them 3-1; under the transitive property of arithmetic, that should mean a 6-1 Magpie win.  Yeah, I'll probalby be disappointed.

Champions League Matchday 5 of 8 plays out over Tuesday and Wednesday.  Man City (home to Feyenoord) and Arsenal (away to Sporting) play Tuesday at 3 pm.  You can stuff your turkey to Aston Villa - Juventus or Liverpool - Real Madrid at 3 pm on Wednesday.

But wait, there's more.  On Turkey Day we have Chelsea going to Heidenheim in Europa Conference League action at 12:45.  Then you can do Tottenham - Roma or Man United - Boba Fett Bodo/Glint at 3 pm, safe in the knowledge that either will be over before it's time for dinner.  Beats watching the Cowboys for sure.

I guess we should point out that the MLS conference semis are Saturday and Sunday.  I note that all are only available on MLS Season Pass, with the exception of LA - Minnesota at 6 pm on Sunday.  The other fixtures are NYC - Red Bull at 5:30 on Saturday, LAFC - Seattle at 10:30 on Saturday and Orlando - Atlanta at 3:30 on Sunday.  I guess there's a slight chance I'll see the two "late" matches if my "give-a-shit" meter hits a certain threshold.

More Interesting Results

Another batch of interesting results.  Interesting could be good or bad depending on your team.

Newcastle Beat the Forest for the Three

Though not at pretty as Joelinton's, Isak's goal got
Newcastle moving in the right direction (Nick Potts)

See what I did there?   Heading to an in-form Nottingham Forest, Newcastle were expecting a tough contest.  At the outset Forest were the better side and deserved their opening goal at 22 minutes by Murillo.  That did serve as a wake-up call and the Magpies started to take over from there.  That pressure wouldn't pay off until 54 minutes, when Isak got the equalizer.  They fairly well dominated the rest of the way and Joelinton got one at 72 minutes and Barnes added another at 83.  After being guilty of poor marking on the Forest goal, Joelinton was a force on both sides of the ball from there on in; earning a few 10's at some of the player rating sites.  His curling shot from just inside the box is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The win moves them to 8th in the table, shockingly just one point out of third. We note that Newcastle have given up just 10 goals this season, behind only Liverpool (6!) and Forest (10).

Dropped Points Everywhere 

Well almost everywhere.  Seven of the top 10 sides going into the weekend failed to win, with only Liverpool, Brighton and Fulham coming away with all three points. Liverpool didn't play all that well but were better than tepid Aston Villa and deserved their 2-0 win.  Brighton got one of the big upsets, getting two late goals to send Man City to their fourth straight defeat across all competitions.  Chelsea and Arsenal came into the weekend level on 18 points and exited level on 19 points after a 1-1 draw; from what I remember the first half wasn't too good but the second half was a little more interesting.  Spurs inexplicably lost to Ipswich while Bournemouth fell 2-3 to Brentford in what looks like a lively mid-table affair.

Ipswich Get First Premier League Win Since 2002

The Tractor Boys last won a top flight match in April of 2002 so their 2-1 win over Spurs was a big deal.  It also moved them out of the bottom three.  We should note that they were out of the Premier League from August 2002 until this past summer so they can be excused for not getting any wins.  Check out this bicycle kick goal from Sammie Szmodics that gave Ipswich the lead.

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows English football.

Gappage But Also A Robust Mid-table

The largest spread in the table right now is the five points between first place Liverpool and second place Man City.  The next biggest gap is City's four point lead over third place Chelsea. Then, there are 11 teams separated by just four points, running from Chelsea to 13th place Man United. 

This Week In Refereeing  

Mostly a quiet week as we wrapped up intramural play.  We had one player who refused to take off a bandana that he was wearing as a neckerchief.  Law 4 says "a player must not use any equipment or wear anything that is dangerous"but it doesn't specifically references neckerchiefs.   Sigh, I guess we will have to send a memo out at the beginning of next season making it clear that neckerchiefs are considered unsafe and must be removed.  

The biggest news was clearly the release of videos of David Coote making disparaging remarks about Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp.  The story is here.  This reminds me of Too Long in the Wasteland by James McMurtry:

but whiskey don't make liars

it just makes fools

so I didn't mean to say it

but I meant what I said

Coote was suspended and the betting line is that he won't referee in the EPL again.  Dennis points out that many referees probably feel this way about Klopp or maybe some other coach they've been reamed by but the real question is did it affect their refereeing?  Most likely not.  Coote's indiscretion was saying it out loud.  His biggest problem may not be referring to Klopp as the "c" word but rathering including "German" in the list as well.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Brenna: MLS playoffs are a best of three?

Dennis: Only for the first round.

Brenna: That's so dumb.

MLS Cupertino Overlords Are Crying in Their Chardonnay

Speaking of "so dumb," how did those first round playoffs work out?  Well, surely Apple had been counting on Lionel Messi's Miami team featuring regularly on their telecasts through November but that won't happen now as they were busted by Atlanta in the third match of that series.  I love this quote from The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald:

The soccer world hasn’t stopped moving just because the Union’s season is over. Or even after Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami was dramatically booted from the MLS playoffs in the first round on Saturday night, which left a box of eggs on the league and Apple’s faces.

Columbus and Cincinnati also lost their Game 3's as well, which means the Eastern Conference semi finals feature the 4, 6, 7 and 9 seeds.  Had they gone with one game playoffs, it would have been 1,3,4 and 7.  The West fared somewhat better and will see 1,2,4 and 6 play in the conference semis; it would have been the same outcome for a one game playoff as well.

To be clear, we're not necessarily advocating for one game playoffs.  Our preference would be fewer teams (four from each conference?) using the home-and-home aggregate score approach.  But that wouldn't produce enough product to fill their programming needs.  

Of course, you can accuse Champions League of doing the same thing with their expanded eight-game group stage.  No doubt, it was about more money from more matches.  However, I'd argue that far from mangling the competition, the new format has made it more interesting.  The old four team groups limited the match ups and meant that one bad result could keep a good side from advancing.  The eight-game format will do a better job of sorting out the quality teams.  

And while we're trashing MLS playoffs, how about the fact that after finishing the first round, they dont' play again until the weekend of 11/23 because of the international break.  For LA and Minnesota, who needed only two matches to clinch their series, this means they will go three weeks without a match.  Way to build the drama.  I know MLS doesn't have control over when the international breaks are scheduled but they could have tailored their playoff format and schedule to deal with it.

USMNT were up 1-0 on Jamaica when I posted this.  They play the second leg Monday night.

Between working on my dad's eulogy and two beers, this is all I got tonight.

A Box of Chocolates

Got to see a little more than I expected.  Some interesting results.

Gordon's cross was superb but so was his defense

Top of that list was Newcastle's 1-0 triumph over Arsenal.  They did an excellent job frustrating Arsenal and converted their best chance of the day, a great cross by Gordon to Isak, who did not miss this time. An easy pick for this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  This was the best we've seen from Gordon in a few matches but others stepped up too.  Though xG says a draw would have been a fair result, I thought the Magpies earned the W.  The annoying part is that even with many others around us in the table dropping points, somehow we still sit 11h in the table.  

Liverpool took their time but eventually won out over Brighton 2-1.  Others weren't so lucky.  We already noted Arsenal's defeat.  Man City were tripped up 2-1 by Bournemouth; those of us who have dropped points to the Cherries feel a little better now.  Villa fell hard (1-4) to Tottenham. That the Spurs took all three at home isn't a huge surprise but the manner in which they did it was; trailing 0-1 at half, Tottenham put up four unanswered goals with Villa looking totally at sea.  Chelsea ended up dropping points as well, drawing 1-1 with Man United.   

Not a surprise result, but Nottingham Forest's 3-0 over West Ham combined with some scores elsewhere has them third place in the table.  No one has fewer losses (one) and they have conceded fewer goals (seven) than anybody else except Liverpool (six).  Ten games in for sure but still a great start for them.

What was I supposed to do?  Leicester's Kalvin
Phillips is about to get his second yellow (Getty Images)

Some fun stuff at the bottom of the table.  Southampton got their first win, a 1-0 squeaker over Everton that survived a late goal from the Toffees that was ruled out for offside.  The result moved the Saints all the way from 20th to 19th.  Ipswich were on the verge of getting their first win when they surrendered a goal in stoppage time, leaving them to settle with their fifth draw of the season.  They were clearly not helped by Kalvin Phillips' second yellow, which meant they played the last 15+ minutes down a man.  Didn't get to see it but the second half of Wolves - Crystal Palace looks wild with four goals between 60-77 minutes; the 2-2 draw doesn't really help either side.

The Monday mid-table contest between Fulham and Brentford wasn't all the exciting, except for stoppage time.  Harry Wilson came on at 82 minutes with the Cottagers trailing 0-1.  He then proceeded to net two in stoppage time to give Fulham an improbable 2-1 win.   You can see the second one here, complete with the home announcers' call.  In truth, Fulham really were pushing Brentford all over the place in the second half and the xG says this was a fair result.

Losing For the Cycle

Man City and Aston Villa both completed an odd triple over the last week, losing in three different competitions.  A week ago Wednesday, City lost to Spurs in the Carabao Cup. On Saturday, they fell in their EPL contest to Bournemouth.  Completing the fun week, they were pummeled by Sporting in their Champions League fixture on Tuesday.   Villa dropped the Carabao Cup tie to Crystal Palace, were pretty well-beaten by Tottenham, then lost 1-0 to Club Brugge on the strangest PK call you'll ever see. Martinez set the ball down inside the six for a goal kick and passed it to Mings, who inexplicably picked it.  You can see the play here; he must have felt Martinez was giving it to him to take the goal kick.  Yes, that was the only goal of the match but Villa played poorly anyway and probably deserved the loss.

Rude Awakening for the EPL

When we last checked, the four Premier League entrants in the Champions League were doing very well, thank you.  Oops, three of them hit speed bumps this week.  Liverpool were fine, coasting to a 4-0 win over Leverkusen; they stay top of table with a perfect record halfway through the group stage.  As we noted above, Man City and Aston Villa dropped their matches; Villa stay in the top eight but City are now 10th, outside the automatic advancement to the knockout rounds.  Arsenal also fell, 1-0 to Inter on a very cheap (we thought incorrect) handball call; they are in 12th.

In the Europa League, Tottenham also saw their perfect record go by the boards, losing 3-2 to Galatasary; they fall to 7th in the standings.  Man United did get a win over PAOK, their first in the competition and they are now in 15th.  Over in the Europa Conference League, Chelsea were unaffected by the EPL bug and beat Noah 8-0 to remain perfect in that competition.  Looking at that scoresheet, Chelsea appear to have gotten two of every kind of goal.

What Do West Virginia and Old Trafford Have In Common?

Really nothing as far as I can tell but they play John Denver's "Take Me Home, Country Roads" before the start of each half at Man United home games.  Red Devils fan Jeff H sends along this video explaining the connnection.  Still seems like a stretch to me.

Yellow Balls Are Back

A pictoral history of yellow balls 

We are remiss in not pointing out that the EPL switched to the winter yellow ball a few weeks ago.  This article goes over the history and rationale for this hallowed EPL tradition.  They say it's to improve visibility but it feels like merchandising to me.

Curtains for Jim

Dennis said even if it is a lay-up, I could use that header for the section discussing the sacking of Jim Curtin.  After a season like that, you know the manager's role in the debacle will be scrutinized.  However, I thought Curtin would survive that scrutiny.  This team's fate was sealed back in the winter when they decided to roll the dice with basically the same crew for one more year.  It's true there have been times during Curtin's tenure that I felt he was too deferential to the experienced players and sometimes didn't make subsitutions as early and often as he needed to.  That wasn't the case this year and in some other years too - you'd look at the bench and ask who exactly would you bring in to make things better?

Aside from thinking that Curtin didn't deserve the sacking, I'm worried about his replacement.  What manager of any quality is going to want to come into this situation with a squad that needs to be overhauled but an ownership that doesn't want to spend money?  We may be in for some rough sailing.

Last Weekend Before the Next International Break

No 7:30 match so we're happy about that.  There are four matches at 10 and based on Opta projections, you probably could go with any one of them. TV chose Crystal Palace - Fulham derby and that could indeed be a decent match.  We'll probably go with Wolves - Southampton as that has 19 and 20 facing off.  These sides at the bottom have limited chances to grab points so a match against a relegation rival in November could easily be more important than matches during the run-in.  Brentford-Bournemouth could also be good as we look to have a thriving and deep midtable this year.  And West Ham - Everton could be tight too.

The feature NBC match doesn't look so hot unless Man City is really in a rut; they should be able to dispatch Brighton with little difficulty.  There's a special 3 pm match this week (we know it's special because it's only on Peacock) between Liverpool and Aston Villa.  We are hoping the Villans sort a few things out for that one or it could be a long day.

A crowded 9 am time slot on Sunday with three matches.  TV sends us to Spurs-Ipswich, which has the smell of a blow-out.  We'll go with Nottingham Forest - Newcastle.  Opta has this one really tight (35/37/28) with the slight edge to the Magpies.  Third choice is Man United hosting Leicester so that does really sound like your third choice.  

Those matches are just the warm-up for the marquee match of the weekend - Chelsea vs Arsenal.  Opta has the Blues as a slight underdog, even at home but it's tight (34/39/27); let's hope for an early goal to loosen things up.

MLS first round playoffs continue.  Some high seeds are already gone (Columbus, Real Salt Lake) and a few others have to win the third match in the series to advance, including both the number one seeds (Miami and LAFC).  Those deciding third games take place Friday and Saturday but all are on MLS Season Pass so good luck.  I am slightly ashamed to admit this but MLS has become like MLB to me - if the Philadelphia team is not in it, hard to get too excited about it.

The USMNT has something slightly competitive - the Nations League quarter-final match up with Jamaica.  Not much except pride on the line here but it might still be a little more lively than the usual friendlies.  First leg is Thursday at 8 pm, second leg is on Monday 11/18 also at 8 pm.  

There's also two match days of European Nations League between Thursday and Tuesday.  Time allowing, I could see looking in on some those, like Scotland - Croatia (Friday), England - Ireland (Sunday) or Poland - Scotland (Monday).

Yeah, not quite the same as the league play but it's all we get for the next two weeks.