Not Every Day Is Christmas

The action was not as scintillating as last weekend.  Except for Arsenal- Man United, most of the matches seemed flat, especially in comparison to last week.  That may account for the high level of  snarkiness in this post.

Crystal Fall

Pope really should be the choice over Pickford now

Palace are tough at Selhurst Park so the 0-0 draw isn't a disaster.  It is, however, 90 more minutes of data that suggest Newcastle don't know how to finish.  On the screen it looked like the Magpies had the run of play.  The stats line up that way too - possession 61/39, shots 16/6, shots on target 7/1 and xG 1.95/.4.  And yet, without an incredible save from Nick Pope - this week's YouTubeableMoment - Newcastle would have come home with no points.  Of course, the good news is that Newcastle haven't surrendered a goal in league action since November 6th.  Yeah, the World Cup break makes that sound awesome; the real stat isn't bad either because they haven't allowed the opposition to score in six league matches, or over nine hours of game action.  

On a down note, Assistant Manager got a yellow card late in the match, I believe for delay of game related to a Palace throw-in.  For those keeping score at home, that would be Newcastle's third one of those this year.

"Mid-table" Sides With Finishing Problems

Of all the flat matches this weekend, the Chelsea-Liverpool 0-0 draw was the most disappointing.  This was not a good 0-0 draw.  This wasn't riveting football between two heavyweights, just the 9th and 10th place sides struggling to a scoreless draw.  Five total shots on target.  They offered nothing to make us think they could challenge for a Champions League spot.  Only halfway through the season so there is time to recover but not playing like that.  

Looking the results, the eight sides sitting 5th to 12th in the table managed all of four goals between them.  Spurs (5th) struggled but got one nice shot from Kane to nip Fulham (7th) 1-0.  Brighton (6th) did get two to draw with Leicester.  And Aston Villa (11th) got one to edge Southampton 1-0.  That would be goose eggs for Newcastle, Brentford, Liverpool, Chelsea and Crystal Palace.

Mind the Gap

Yikes

With Arsenal's win 3-2 over Man United (a worthy contest, best of the weekend) and Man City's 3-0 shearing of Wolves (which featured another Haaland hat trick), those two have effectively separated themselves from the rest of the field.  Newcastle and Man United are now six points behind second place City.  It's another three back to Tottenham.  Liverpool and Chelsea are 21 points behind Arsenal and 16 back of Man City.  One feels that, like a 10k race in which the two best have broken from the pack, they are likely not coming back.

Lampard Survives the Weekend

But not the week.  Everton were barely present in the first half against West Ham and were down 2-0 on merit.  They were better in the second half, at least putting up a fight, but 2-0 was the final.  Lampard was sacked on Wednesday.  Perhaps he will follow Steven Gerrard into a new career as a sports betting ambassador.

It's the Hope That Kills

Relegation candidates Bournemouth, Leicester and Southampton all looked to be close to grabbing some critical points but were all foiled by late goals.  Bournemouth were leading Nottingham Forest late but surrendered the equalizer in the 83rd minute; instead of finishing the weekend in 14th, they now sit 18th.  Leicester were looking at some breathing room but Brighton scored in the 88th minute so they are still stuck one point from the drop zone.  Southampton missed out on a chance to escape the basement when Ollie Watkins scored in the 77th minute to give Aston Villa a 1-0 win.  I know from experience that lost points like these are the reason you sweat out those final weeks in May.

Forest Look To Solid Wood For Survival

In a move that probably did not light up the newspaper wires, Newcastle's Chris Wood was picked up on loan for the rest of the season by Nottingham Forest.  The club is 14th in the table which doesn't sound too bad until you notice that they are just four points out of 18th and relegation.  They've scored just 16 goals all season, ahead of only Everton (15) and Wolves (12).  On the one hand, Wood never really put up the numbers that Newcastle had hoped for when they overpaid for him last year.  But he has a great work rate, wins a lot of aerial challenges and may offer some hold up play that will create chances for Lingard and others.  

We Carabao It Even More

Newcastle didn't exactly dominate in taking a 1-0 lead in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final with Southampton.  On TV they looked somewhat the better side but the stats are pretty even.  Partly because they continue to sky shots from impossibly close over the bar (looking at you Longstaff and Joe L Linton).  We remain optimistic that they will close this out at home on Tuesday.

Nottingham Forest played okay but Man United were simply better.  They'll take a 3-0 lead back to Old Trafford and look completely ready to make the final.

Hunt Lost on Jeopardy (apologies to "Weird Al" Yankovic)

Hunt congratulates Oswalt

Ted Lasso's assistant, Coach Beard, went deep on Celebrity Jeopardy.  He was looking good for a spot in the final as he carried a healthy lead over Michael Cera and Patton Oswalt into Final Jeopardy.  The category was Novels and the clue was: "Breeders, wives and unwomen" was the headline of the New York Times' 1986 review of this novel.  Only Oswalt came up with the correct response: What is the Handmaid's Tale?  Hunt's answer: What is heartburn?  He lost 10k while Oswalt gained 12.3k and it is Patton who will advance to the final.

Free Weekend

Also known as the FA Cup Round of 32, which rarely includes Newcastle.  This year is no exception.  But it's probably a good thing because they would have had to play this weekend, then have little turnaround for the Caraboa Cup semi on Tuesday.    

Action kicks off Friday with Man City hosting Arsenal.  So with 32 teams left in the tournament, we get the No. 1 seed playing the No. 2 seed.  At some point, this isn't quaint anymore.  Somewhat the same situation for Brighton-Liverpool (Sunday at 8:30); you can think of it as either the 5th seed playing the 7th seed or simply 6th in the EPL playing 9th.  

For the Saturday 10 am matches, I'll probably start with Sheffield Wednesday vs Fleetwood, two League One sides.  The FA Cup tends to mean more to the lower division clubs and a trip to the round of 16 would be a big deal for League One team.  Hoping that results in a good, hard-fought match.  My back up is Ipswich hosting Burnley.  At 1 pm you get Preston - Tottenham solo, followed by Man United hosting Reading at 3.

Sunday offers three more matches.  We already mentioned the Brighton - Liverpool fixture.  For some reason, they start Stoke City - Stevenage at 9.  The good news is that Wrexham fans can tune in at 11:30 to see the National League side face Sheffield United.  SHU are near the top of the Championship Division so we're looking at basically a difference of three full divisions between the sides.  But it will be fun to at least see how it goes.  

You can wrap up the round with Derby vs West Ham on Monday at 3 pm.

Since we have the Carabao Cup semis on Tuesday and Wednesday, it's another week with football everyday but Thursday.  Hurray for us.

Good Stuff

As we had hoped, just about every match this weekend was eminently watchable.  Not all will be happy with the results but there were wins for Newcastle and Aston Villa.  As of publication, Frank Lampard was still manager at Everton.

Ball Don't Lie

As we feared, Fulham was more than happy to give Newcastle a hard time.  Statistically, the Magpies were running over them but through 64+ minutes, the match was scoreless.  Then there were two PK shouts for Fulham in the space of 30 seconds.  Real time, the first looked troublesome, the second like  embellishment.  Replays suggested the first wasn't so bad and that the second was indeed embellishment.  So VAR of course passed on the first but sent referee Robert Jones to the monitor for the second and the on-field no call decision was reversed.  Incredibly soft and re-refereeing for me.  Mitrovic took the PK and appeared to have converted it, though it looked odd.  Turns out it was odd because he had slipped and kicked the ball with his right foot into his left foot.  Since the kicker cannot strike the ball a second time without an intervening touch by another player, the goal was disallowed and the kick not retaken (like a 15 yard penalty plus loss of down).  You can see the bizarre play here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Given the questionable nature of the penalty award in the first place, Dennis immediately texted me the immortal words of Rasheed Wallace - "Ball don't lie."

Welcome back Isak

As much of a break as that was, a match that Newcastle should win was still scoreless. Off the bench and to the rescue was our most expensive transfer, Alexander Isak.  He calmly headed in Callum Wilson's cross from the goal line in the 87th minute for the game winner.  The three points catapulted Newcastle past Man United and to within one point of Manchester City.  Mid-week results changed things a little but let that statement sink in anyway.  

No doubt Fulham are a pesky side right now but the hard fought 1-0 win makes clear what will determine Newcastle's potential fate as a contender for European football.  The finishing is just not consistent enough.  Don't fully understand why so many of the best chances are falling to Longstaff, who is a good defensive midfielder but clearly not our best attacking option.  Wilson has been inconsistent, when he is not injured.  Same for Chris Wood.  More playing time for Isak and Saint-Maximin might be the answer, as might some help in the January transfer wire.

Blame the Rule, Not the Call

Man City took a 1-0 lead late into Saturday's derby.  Then, Bruno Fernandes appeared to level things at 78 minutes with a well taken shot from the top of the box.  Except the initial call was that Rashford was offside on the play.  However, after a relatively short discussion between Stuart Atwell and AR Darren Cann, the goal was allowed to stand.  Cue outrage.  You can see the play here. I will admit that my first thought was how is that not offside.  But if you read the rule carefully, you will be hard pressed to conclude that Rashford violated the letter of the law.  

Once again, here is the relevant language from Law 11:

A player in an offside position at the moment the ball is played or touched* by a team-mate is only penalised on becoming involved in active play by:

• interfering with play by playing or touching a ball passed or touched by a team-mate or
• interfering with an opponent by:
  • preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision or
  • challenging an opponent for the ball or
  • clearly attempting to play a ball which is close when this action impacts on an opponent or
  • making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball

Passive my ass: Rashford never took himself out of the play

Well, Rashford didn't touch the ball.  Under the heading of interfering with an opponent, points one and two are out.  Did he clearly attempt to play the ball?  No.  So we're left with the last point.  He certainly looked like he played the dummy on the pass.  He also ran alongside Fernandes and could have easily been the one to take the shot instead of Bruno.  Except he didn't.  And did his actions affect "the ability of an opponent to play the ball?"  No Man City defender got close enough to play the ball so I think the answer is no.  All we are left with is that Rashford's position could have easily put questions into the minds of Man City defenders as to was he going to play the ball or shoot.  As in, how could that not have affected the City defenders' actions?  But that is not addressed in the law.  Though it seems massively counter to the spirit of the offside law, the call appears correct.  Several former referees have weighed in with exactly that opinion. 

Think about the hypothetical situation where there's an attacker standing on the corner of the six, say 20+ yards ahead of the next to last defender and the ball so clearly in the offside position.  But he's not blocking the keeper's vision and not moving.  If the ball comes into the area and he makes no move toward the ball, it is not offside.  The keeper is supposed to ignore that attacker, secure in the knowledge that if the attacker takes a step to play the ball, he'll be flagged for offside.  That explanation never sits well with keepers and coaches but it is 100% correct.  But let's push that hypothetical a little.  Suppose that instead of being 20 yards offside, there's a defender standing close to that attacker.  How is the keeper supposed to know if the attacker is offside?  The referee courses pound into our head that the only way to know for sure is if you are positioned exactly in line with the next to last defender, so it is impossible for the keeper to know.  

I fear that a major rewrite of the law would probably just create additional problems.  BFS Keeper Consultant (and a referee himself) suggests that maybe the lawmakers can provide us with some additional examples as to what constitutes "interfering."  

To his credit, Guardiola, while clearing registering his disagreement with the ruling, said City's bigger problem was conceding a second goal a mere four minutes later.  As in, the call sucked but we made mistakes too.  Rashford's game winner was pretty good, made possible by a great feed from Garnacho.  This was a big win for Man United, pulling them to within one point of their cross town rivals, at least for the moment.  And a fun watch too.

Hugo Ll"oyy"ris

The other big derby -Tottenham vs Arsenal - wasn't quite as good viewing, especially for Spurs fans.  An incredible howler of an own goal from Tottenham keeper Hugo Lloris, seen here, spotted the Gunners an early goal.  A second from Martin Odegaard doubled the lead at 36 minutes.  So yet again, another frustrating first half performance for Spurs.  Given their recent history of strong second half performances, the game still felt in reach.  True to form, Spurs were better in second half but never broke through and the final was 2-0.  The loss leaves Tottenham 14 points behind first place Arsenal.

Odegaard is getting a lot of attention.  People are asking how could Real Madrid have let him get away for a mere 35 million?  He has 8 goals and 5 assists in 17 matches and an average rating of 7.52.  Check out his stats here at whoscored.com.  He has seven matches with ratings over 8.0.  Note he also has eight matches below 7.0.  To be fair, most of those are between 6.6 and 6.9 so it's not like they were awful, just not as good.  Only three data points but in the three matches in which Arsenal have dropped points, his ratings were 6.79 (draw with Newcastle), 6.77 (draw with Southampton) and 5.98 (loss to Man United).

Another Anecdote

We can add another data point in the argument that Unai Emery is making a difference at Aston Villa.  They were facing a pesky Leeds side in a match that would hopefully dispel any notion that Villa were going to be dragged into a relegation battle.  They passed the test, though not necessarily with flying colors.  Leon Bailey got them on the board with a third minute goal.  The quick start seemed to fade away and there was too much action in Villa's third of the field.  Leeds certainly know how to attack and they got their chances.  Great work from Martinez in goal and Alex Moreno (nice January pick up there) at left back to deny two likely goals.  A second goal from Buendia provided some cushion but a late goal from Bamford meant 12 minutes or so of squeaky bum time.  The stats (especially xG at .9 - 2.0) suggest maybe Villa were a bit lucky.  Yeah, except that's why you get a good keeper and defenders plus Villa converted their chances and Leeds didn't.  You can't help but feel this was a draw or loss under Emery's predecessor.

Blue Bloods at the Bottom

James Ward-Prowse: he can take our free kicks anytime
but not so about his golf game

A busy week down in the relegation zone.  Aston Villa's win over Leeds kept The Whites perilously close to the drop zone.  Nottingham Forest got some breathing room at the expense of Leicester, who sit just two points above 18th place.  Brentford's 2-0 win over Bournemouth has the Cherries just one point from the bottom three.   The Everton - Southampton clash was tight as expected and turned on two second half goals from James Ward-Prowse.  Check out his game winner of a free kick here.  I am baffled as to how, after losing at home to a relegation rival, Frank Lampard didn't get sacked.  In the other big relegation contest, Wolves bested West Ham 1-0, putting David Moyes in perhaps as much jeopardy as Lampard.  Both those contests were exactly what you'd expect from six-pointers.  Tense, maybe not always the best football but highly watchable.

Heading into the weekend, the bottom three in order are West Ham, Everton and Southampton.  All are on 15 points with the order determined by goal differential.  

In Other Action

Chelsea eked out a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace.  This was as close has the score indicates but also really nasty.  There were seven yellow cards (five for Palace) and 27 fouls (17 for Palace).  Regardless, the three points must have been welcome sight for Graham Potter.  In what might not be a surprise any more, Brighton blasted Liverpool 3-0.  I didn't see the match but everything in the stats make it look like the right score.  Possession was 61/39, shots 16/6, shots on target 9/2 and xG 1.9-1.2.  Yikes.

The two Manchester sides were in action midweek.  United surrendered a late goal to Crystal Palace and could only manage a 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park., foiling any chance to pass City.  Tottenham actually scored two in the first half but then allowed Man City four in the second half in a 4-2 loss at The Etihad.  So the weekend begins with Arsenal top of the table by five over Man City, Man United are three back of that and Newcastle sit fourth.  One of these is not like the others... 

FA Cup 3rd Round Clean Up

Actually, they're not done yet because the Accrington Stanley - Boreham Wood replay was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch.  Liverpool and Leeds did win their replays.  The Championship sides did pretty well too.  Here's the composition of the next round, pending the last replay

Premier League - 11

Championship - 12

League One - 4

League Two - 3

National League - 1

Accrington Stanley would add one to the League One tally while a Boreham Wood upset would add on to National League numbers.

That'll Leave A Mark

BFS Executive Chef Laura O. sends along this clip of a defender giving his all to keep the balls ball out of the net.

The War for Football

BFS PSG Correspondent Kathy S alerted me to the Apple TV documentary on the first failed attempt to set up a Super League.  Details are here.  I watched the first installment and learned some additional less than savory aspects of the effort, including what looks like the outright betrayal of the UEFA head (Aleksander Ceferin) by Andrea Agnelli (at the time head of Juventus and also the European Club Association).  Ceferin thought he had worked out revisions to the Champions League format to satisfy the bigger clubs' concerns.  As he was driving to a meeting to announce it, the news of the Super League broke and Ceferin realized that Agnelli - who he thought of as a close personal friend - was involved.  Looking forward to the next three installments.

In the paragraph above, I said "first failed attempt" because the idea is not going away.  Some of those behind the first effort took UEFA and FIFA to court arguing that their monopolies were illegal.  In December, the European Court of  Justice found that the federations' actions were "compatible with EU competition law."  Despite that, I fear we are not done with this issue.

It's Always About the Miles

BFS 100 Meter Record Holder Bob S sends along this clip about how much EPL players run during a match. Some good stuff in there that I may need to follow up on.  Most interesting is his initial observation that total team miles may not correlate with success.  

More Six Pointers

Though not quite as fascinating as last weekend, still a pretty good list of fixtures.  Biggest would be Man United - Arsenal at 11:30 on Sunday (NBC).  Although United's midweek draw to Crystal Palace took some of the luster off this, it is still big one as they could find themselves 11 points back with a loss.  Then there's the Saturday 7:30 match featuring Liverpool - Chelsea.  Even though that's 9th place Liverpool vs 10th place Chelsea, a loss here for either means Champions League, already 10 points away, is that much farther.  

Big match on the relegation front is West Ham hosting Everton at 10 am Saturday on USA; you have to wonder if the losing manager survives this match.  Despite some recent wins for Forest, we have to put the Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest contest in the relegation six-pointer list as well.  That's another of the Saturday 10 am Peacock matches.  Also at 10 am is Leicester - Brighton, which doesn't really offer much of interest right now.  

A not so obvious six-pointer is the London Derby between Spurs and Fulham on Monday at 3 pm (USA).  The two are 5th and 6th in the table, separated by just two points.

Newcastle get Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park as the NBC feature match Saturday at 12:30.  This is usually a good contest so we think the schedulers chose well.  Aston Villa get to play the opposite of kingmaker as they face last place Southampton Saturday at 10 on Peacock.  Though we expect a close contest here, our 10 am slot is probably taken up by the West Ham - Everton match.  

For your early Sunday 9 am morning viewing, we would recommend Leeds - Brentford (Peacock) over Man City - Wolves.  The former could be a close and watchable contest while the latter could be a blow out.  

For those who might still be following, the first legs of the two Carabao Cup semis are the only mid week action on tap.  Newcastle are at Southampton on Tuesday at 3 while Nottingham Forest host Man United in the other on Wednesday, also at 3 pm.

Just one day (Thursday) without football this week, which is fine by us. 

Swallowed By A Minnow

minnow ‎(plural minnows)

1. A small freshwater fish of the carp family.
2. More generally, any small fish.
3. (soccer) A low-level team, in comparison to their opponents. 

One of the quaint features of the Third Round of the FA Cup is that usually several minnows advance at the expense of some of the top tier sides.  The problem is that it's not so effin' quaint when it's your team that gets swallowed by a minnow.  

Windass kicked Newcastle's butt

Eddie Howe took a slight risk playing a heavily rotated side for the contest with third tier Sheffield
Wednesday Saturday.  However, we will not second guess him even though the gamble backfired in a 2-1 loss.  First, this wasn't exactly Man City or Arsenal that they were facing.  Second, Howe did have to factor in that the Magpies had a quarterfinal League Cup match on Tuesday.  Yes, in theory that is less desirable hardware than the FA Cup but if you're that close to the final, it probably should take precedence.  And lastly, that wasn't chopped liver he put out there.  Dubravka, Manquillo, Murphy, Isak, Anderson, Lewis and Ritchie are Premier League level players and could have gotten the job done.

Sheffield Wednesday didn't exactly play like a minnow though Newcastle did have the run of play.  But it was Josh Windass for Sheffield that broke through at 52 minutes.  Shortly thereafter, Howe put in Guimaraes, Almiron and Willock with the result that Windass scored again at 65 minutes.  On came Trippier and Newcastle quickly got one back and looked all the world like they had an equalizer and maybe even a game winner.  Except it wasn't to be and Newcastle were bounced out in the Third Round by a League One side again.   

Deja vu All Over Again

On Sunday, Aston Villa not only repeated Newcastle's feat but surpassed it.  Villa's line up was even more heavily rotated than Newcastle's but at least they managed to carry a 1-0 lead late into the match.  And then poof, it was gone.  First Dendoncker made an incredibly stupid shirt grab that continued into the penalty area.  The PK was converted and Villa would play the last five or so minutes down a man.  Frankly, a draw was the likely result at that point.  Except Stevenage then grabbed the game winner in the 90th minute. No one was more relieved than Dennis when the game winner slipped past Olsen, addressing his worst fear was they'd get stuck with a mid-week replay.

Stroll Around the Grounds (apologies to Simon and Garfunkel)

Stockport Sports Village - capacity 2,398, including 192 seats

I did get to sample the action from a bunch of different games over the four days, including several at the smaller, neighborhood-friendly grounds where a second story window sometimes is a great seat.   I was surprised that unlike in previous years, none of the pitches reminded me of the dirt and weeds of our own club venue, the Water Tower Recreation Center.  No, apart from some worn touchlines, corner areas and goalie boxes, they were in pretty good shape.  My favorite this time was Stockport Sports Village, home pitch of Stockport County FC.  It didn't strike me at the time but of course the pitch is in perfect condition - it's artificial turf.

One venue that did not fare so well was the New Lawn Stadium, where the match between Forest Green and Birmingham had to be postponed due to a waterlogged pitch.  Before you go thinking this might have been some Crash Davis type scheme to buy the Rovers some extra time, know that there were heavy rains throughout the night.

Sauce for the Goose

Or something like that.  At this point in the FA Cup, VAR is used, but only in fixtures at Premier League venues.  That does not seem like a level playing field to me.  If you can't have it in all cases, it shouldn't be used at all.  If the Newcastle match had been at St. James' Park, Sheffield Wednesday's first goal likely would have been ruled out for offside and Newcastle's definitely would have been.  There were several incidences of handling or fouls in the box that could have ended up with different calls with or without VAR.  

Tough Day for the Overdog

Over the 31 third round matches (Forest Green - Birmingham postponed) the favorites were just 13-12 with six draws.  The composition of the fourth round so far, with six replays to go, is:

PL - 9  (9-8-3 overall)

CH - 8 (8-9-6) 

L1 - 4 (4-5-1) 

L2 - 3 (3-3-0)

NL - 1 (1-0-2)

On the other hand, many of the upsets were minor, with the difference in seeding less than 10.  Aston Villa (44) and Newcastle (42) were by far the biggest upsets.  Next levels were Wrexham over Coventry (28) and Blackpool over Nottingham Forest (27).  But these were atypical.  More common was stuff like Burnley over Bournemouth, Ipswich over Rotherham, and Grimsby over Burton, where the difference was just five seeds.

The luck of the draw meant that match ups were closer than usual.  Three League Two sides are advancing.  Sure Stevenage was a huge upset but Grimsby over League One Burton isn't a shocker.  And Walsall?  They beat Stockport, a side merely three places below them in the League Two table.

O'er The Lampard We Watched (apologies to Francis Scott Key)

An Everton exit in the third round of the FA Cup would normally be considered a disaster.  The mitigating circumstance this time was that the defeat came at the hand of in-form Man United.  And, the 3-1 final aside, Everton actually played pretty well; the second tally was a Conor Coady own goal and the third was a stoppage time PK.  However, the Toffees' rocky season to-date does have us wondering how much longer Frank Lampard remains as manager.  They are thoroughly engaged in the relegation battle, sitting 18th, a mere three points from the bottom.  That the five sides above them are within spitting distance may provide some comfort.  The dark cloud to that thin silver lining though is their horrendous recent form.  Everton have taken five points from the last 30 on offer.  They have no wins in the last six matches. Their only wins this season are against Crystal Palace, West Ham and Southampton, 12th, 17th and 20th respectively in the table.

At 4/5, Lampard is far and away the "favorite" as the next EPL manager to be sacked.  Graham Potter (whose woes are discussed below) is 2/1 and David Moyes, who's West Ham club are ahead of Everton only because their goal differential is one better is at 8/1.  Everton's next two matches are 20th place Southampton (1/14) and 17th place West Ham (1/21).  I can't see anything less than four points being enough for Lampard to keep his job.

Well Now I Carabao It

Dan Burn - Your basic 6'6" "striker [Photo APP]

With the 2-0 win over Leicester in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, Howe's line up choice for the FA Cup on Saturday is further vindicated.  Newcastle's domination of the Foxes was complete.  Possession was 53/47, shots were 22/7 and shots on target were 7/1.  The match was scoreless through 60 minutes, so despite having the run of play, a smash and grab 0-1 loss was a fear for a while.  Also, the xG advantage was slim - just 1.8-1/3 - reflecting the late appearance of Jamie Vardy who fortunately missed two really good opportunities.  Both Magpie goals  were well-taken but we'll go with defender Dan Burn for the YouTubeableMoment.  His reception, move, finish and especially his kneeling slide were all worthy of highly rated striker.

Man United handled Charleton 3-0, though that scoreline is misleading as two of the goals game at 90 and 94 minutes.  Nottingham Forest and Wolves played to a 1-1 draw with Forest advancing on PKs.  Speaking of rotated line ups, Guardiola trotted out a largely backup Man City team against Southampton.  After falling behind 0-2, he put many first teamers back in but it was too late and the Saints pulled out the upset.

The draw for the two-legged semis is Newcastle - Southampton and Nottingham Forest - Man United.  Those matches take place on 1/24 and 1/31.

Yes, we make fun of the competition until our team is in the semis.  Now it is very important.

Bale Retires Two Games Too Late

My final memory of Bale - the PK against the US

On Monday, Gareth Bale announced he was stepping away from the game at 33.  This ESPN article does a nice job capturing his career.  Unfortunately, we will remember him for two agonizing equalizers in November 2022 - one for LAFC to level the MLS Final against the Union and the PK to earn Wales a draw with the US in the World Cup.  Seriously, he had a fine career but if it had been a month shorter, we wouldn't have minded.

Vini Vidi Vinicius

Latin for I came, I saw, I scored against Chelsea.  Fulham's Carlos Vinicius added to Chelsea's woes with a nifty header that allowed the Cottagers to come away with a 2-1 win in a London Derby on Thursday.  This has not been a pretty year for Chelsea and the trend continued.  You could already make a solid Premier League squad from their injury list which includes Mendy, James, Kante, Chilwell, Fofana, Broja, Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, and Sterling.  Add Zakaria to that list, as he exited Thursday's match with some type of leg injury.  Things got worse, as shortly thereafter, newly acquired Joao Felix - who had been having a good game - picked up a straight red for serious foul play.  He'll probably get a three match suspension for the challenge.  Through 11 matches as the Chelsea manager, Graham Potter has four wins, three draws and four losses.  As noted above, he's now number two in the EPL Sack Race.

Derbies, Relegation Relevant Fixtures and Six Pointers

Good stuff up and down the table this weekend.  The 7:30 Saturday match is a Manchester Derby at Old Trafford.  Both sides are in good form, well, leaving aside City's 0-2 loss at Southampton in the Caraboa Cup.  At 538 they have the match 26/52/22 favor City but hoping it might be closer than that.  On Sunday at 11:30 we have a North London Derby with Spurs hosting Arsenal.  Tottenham are the underdog at 32/44/24.  Here's hoping they don't wait until the second half to start playing for real.

The Saturday 10 am slot presents a conundrum for relegation aficionados, with three solid choices.  Everton host Southampton (USA), West Ham are at Wolves (Peacock) and Nottingham Forest take on Leicester at home (also Peacock).  All three should be tight affairs.  Really hard pressed to choose one over another here but will probably go with Everton-Southampton as part of the Frank Lampard Sack Watch.  

Newcastle have a classic "trap" match, taking on Fulham at home (Sunday at 9 on Peacock).  The Magpies haven't lost in 13 matches dating back to August 31.  They beat the Cottagers 4-1 in the reverse fixture back in October.  Defender Antonee Robinson will miss the match with a yellow care accumulation suspension.  But recall that Fulham played that earlier match down a man for 82+ minutes and they come in with a four game win streak of their own. This should be a win but overconfidence can be deadly.

The NBC feature match on Saturday of Brentford - Bournemouth does not overwhelm.  Chelsea will hope to address an inconsistent run of form with a home match against Crystal Palace (Sunday at 9 on USA).  Brighton hosting Liverpool (10 am Saturday on Peacock) isn't the projected blow out it used to be but unfortunately, at least for me, is overshadowed by the relegation matches scheduled for the same time.  And don't forget we have that old favorite, Friday afternoon football, as Aston Villa will host Leeds at 3 pm on USA.  This one should be wide open and fun.

Dennis notes that almost every one of the matches this weekend is a six pointer.  Look at how close each side is in the table:

Aston Villa vs Leeds 11-14 (3)                    Man United vs Man City 4-2 (2)

Brighton vs Liverpool 8 - 7 (1)                    Everton vs Southampton 18-20 (2)

Nottingham Forest vs Leicester 15-13 (2)   Wolves vs West Ham 19-17 (2)

Brentford vs Bournemouth 9-16 (7)            Chelsea vs Crystal Palace 10-12 (2)

Newcastle vs Fulham 3-6 (3)                       Spurs vs Arsenal 5-1 (4)

In six of the matches, the sides are within one or two places of each other in the table.  In three more the difference is just three or four places.  Only Brentford - Bournemouth looks out of place here.  Like they used to say about classic vinyl albums - drop the needle anywhere on the record and you'll like it. 

There are mid-week replays in the FA Cup on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Also, there are two "make up" EPL matches to watch.  Crystal Palace host Man United on Wednesday and Spurs travel to Man City for a tough road match on Thursday.  Both matches are at 3 but not sure of TV options.

So the holidays are over but footballless days are still rare.  Happy New Year to us.

Holiday Football

Thanks to some inspired work by teams from the lower half of the table, the holiday fixtures turned out to be a bit better than expected.  We certainly enjoyed checking in at about 2:45 for some mid-week football for the last two weeks in addition to the regular weekend action.

Conspiracy Theory

Before the 11 Days of Football kicked off, Dennis suggested a conspiracy theory in which the Power Six clubs were given decidedly easier schedules after the World Cup.  That the FA requested no important clashes before the World Cup is a matter of record.  Dennis argues that the policy seemed to have continued in the weeks immediately after the World Cup as well.  Here's the list of holiday fixtures for the Power Six:

Arsenal - West Ham, Brighton, Newcastle

Chelsea - Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Man City

Liverpool - Aston Villa, Leicester, Brentford

Man City - Leeds, Everton, Chelsea

Man United - Nottingham Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth

Tottenham - Brentford, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace

There is only one clash between the group (Man City - Chelsea).  Of the 18 fixtures, in only two cases was a team's predicted chance of victory less than 50% at 538 (Arsenal at Brighton and Chelsea against Man City).   At least one part of Dennis's point is confirmed - this was a relatively easy set of fixtures for the Power Six.  Was it intentional or just coincidence?   If it was intentional, it didn't work out exactly as planned as we discuss below.  If it was just a coincidence, it was a big coincidence. 

Degree of Difficulty

Sort of following up on the previous point, you really can't assess a club's performance over this holiday period without taking into account the quality of the opposition.  Sure you got five points in three matches but did you out- or underperform expectations?    Using the 538 projections, we constructed the table below that includes expected points per 538 compared to actual points earned in the holiday matches.  We'll use the first match of the festive period - Brentford v Spurs - as an example.  Spurs were 50% to win, Brentford were 28% to win, with a 22% chance of a draw.  Spurs' expected points were 3*.5 +.22=1.72 and Brentford's were 3*.28+.22 or 1.06.  Note that while Spurs were solid favorites here, the expected points aren't as high as you might think.  Certainly this partially reflects that it was a home match for Brentford.  But it also shows how what looks like a massive advantage in a projection isn't as big as it seems.  Remember that next time you are reading election polls.  Here's the table:

Surprise winners are Fulham and Brentford.  With matches against Crystal Palace, Southampton, and Leicester, Fulham certainly went in with a reasonable expectation of grabbing some points.  Probably not all 9 though.  Brentford had a somewhat tougher road, facing Spurs, West Ham and Liverpool; they were fortunate that only the West Ham match was on the road, so their expected points were 2.91.  But seven had to be a bonanza for them.  The draw with Spurs was actually a -.06 but the wins over West Ham and Liverpool were +1.94 and +2.21. 

Down at the other end, Southampton were forecast for 4.12 and got none. Zero.  Lost to Brighton, Fulham and Nottingham Forest.  That last one was the killer.  Leicester did not distinguish themselves either, losing to Newcastle, Liverpool and Fulham for a -3.32.  Hard to believe they sit 13th in the table until you realize that they are only three points, or one bad weekend, clear of the relegation zone.  Bournemouth also got washed out.

How did the Power Six do after adjusting for their degree of difficulty?  Man United did just fine thank you, with the third highest performance over expected; winning all three will help with that.  The draw with Newcastle ate into Arsenal's tally a little but they were still better than expected with seven points for a +1.34.  Man City got seven points but was forecast for 6.71 so they barely ended up positive; the unexpected draw with Everton kept that number down.  Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs all had stumbles that left them negative.

Newcastle came up just a little better than expectations.  The 3-1 win at Leicester was solid.  They proceeded to drop some points in a 0-0 against a stubborn Leeds.  Fortunately they grabbed a surprise point with a 0-0 draw against Arsenal.  We note that on one hand, this ended a 10 game pointless streak at The Emirates but on the other, still haven't scored there since December 2014.

Curiosities in the Table

Almost to the halfway point of the season, the table is loaded with interesting surprises.  Arsenal, Man City, Man United, Spurs and Liverpool holding five of the top six spots is not one of them, although Liverpool in 6th seven points out of the top four might qualify.  Newcastle still at third is a surprise.  How about Fulham in 7th, level on points with Liverpool?  Or Brentford at 9th, a notch above Chelsea??  The bottom three are currently Everton, Wolves and Southampton.  West Ham are 17th, outside the relegation zone only on the basis of goal differential.  A mere five points separate 13th through 20th.  A lot of stories to follow for the second half of the season. 

Slippery Slope

Newcastle's rapid ascent into the top four has been unfortunately accompanied by a gradual descent into the sense of entitlement (dickishness) that I associate with the Power Six.  Late in the Leeds draw both Wilson and Guimaraes got yellows basically for showing their frustration that Leeds kept playing hard.  Throughout the Arsenal draw, the Magpies deployed what BFS Sevilla fan Bob K called "epic time wasting tactics."  Guimaraes was in the face of referee Stuart Atwell for any real or perceived (usually the latter) Arsenal transgression.  Special recognition has to go to Jamal Lascelles, who got a yellow card for interfering with a throw-in while he was on the touch line warming up as a substitute.  We note that this is the second time he's done that this year.

Kick save and a beauty - Nick Pope stops a shot in the 87th minute

For the most part, Newcastle have so far been mostly fun to watch.  The Leeds match was highly
entertaining, with the Wilson/Guimaraes nonsense at the end a minor distraction.  The Arsenal match was not pretty to watch; Dennis was turned off enough that he walked his dog in the middle of the second half.  The ugliness might be a factor that they were playing the top team at their place.  In fairness, Newcastle did not park the bus and had their own chances; xG advantage was just 1.4 - 1.2.  Really hoping that this trend doesn't go much farther.

What Is Christmas Without Jesus?

Ironically, Arsenal have had to navigate this holiday season without the services of Gabriel Jesus, who suffered a knee injury during the World Cup.  He is expected to return in three days months.

The Season of Giving

Wout Faes - Belgian St. Nick

We all know that it is better to give than to receive, but Leicester's Wout Faes took it to a new level this holiday season.  The Foxes were carrying an unlikely 1-0 lead over Liverpool late into the first half.  Faes then proceeded to play Santa, deflecting a shot over his keeper's head and into the goal; you can see the play here.  A short seven minutes later, Faes gifted the Reds another own goal, this one even unluckier than the first, as you can see here.  The really bad news is the final was 2-1.

Surprisingly, he is the fourth player in Premier League history with two OGs in one game.  I would guess that it happened many times before the Premier League was formed but didn't see any stats on it.  The other three were Jamie Carragher, Michael Proctor and Jonathan Walters.  All three had long careers and Carragher and Walters played internationally for England and Ireland respectively.  Hopefully Faes will recover.

When Do Anecdotes Become Data?

I can't profess to know exactly where that is but we must be getting close to concluding that the issue at Aston Villa was in fact Steven Gerrard.  In five league matches since Unai Emery took over, Villa have three wins (including victories over Chelsea and Tottenham), one draw and one loss.  And, aside from  the results, they just look like a better team.  Even the 1-3 loss to Liverpool felt more like a 2-2 draw to me.  The statistician in me knows that five observations aren't enough but I'm going to bet the difference holds up for the rest of the season.

Where Did You Get Those Kits?

What time does CBGB close?

Player is down where you grab the flag

Nottingham Forest showed up for the contest with Chelsea wearing what looked like flag football uniforms.  They got a 1-1 draw so we might see them again.  And Brentford wore jerseys that looked like they were from a New Year's Eve party for their match with West Ham.

Art Imitates Life But Only Sort Of

It is 12/31/22 in my Football Manager virtual reality.  Argentina have won the World Cup, beating the Netherlands 1-0.  Portugal defeated England 1-0 in the third place match.  The other quarterfinalists were Italy, Switzerland, Nigeria and Peru.  So half the teams that reached the quarters in real life did so in FM.  However, we need to remember that though FM and reality were tied together in fall of 2019 when I started the game, everything in FM since then has been based on computer generated results.  I realize this is like saying I have been divorced from reality since then but many would argue that happened long ago.

My Forest Green side is punching above their weight as the English would say it.  We are sitting 8th in the Premier League with 23 points through 15 matches.  The weird part is that we seem to be drawing against teams that we should beat and drawing against teams we should lose to.  Case in point: somehow we managed a 2-2 tie with Chelsea despite being outshot 31-3, with shots on target at 15-1.  Sharp eyes will note that we got two goals with one shot on target.  Yes, we benefited from a Chelsea own goal.  The weird part was that we surrendered the equalizer in the 94th minute.  We were so lucky to be up at that point that it was hard to be too upset about the draw.  I do feel like overall fortune has smiled on us so far and that a slide down the table is inevitable.  On the other hand, we were a consensus pick for relegation and that doesn't seem too likely at this point.  And, one countervailing thread is that our marquee signing - Pedri on loan from Barcelona - has only recently started to play at the level we expected.

Transfer News

Ah, it's late, we'll get to it next week.  But the January window is now open.

FA Cup Weekend

We are all about efficiency here at BFS so rather than drafting new material to introduce this year's FA Cup, we will simply drag out this this old post.  It should tell you what you need to know about this venerable and quirky competition.  

As discussed in the post, there is no seeding in the FA Cup.  The only advantage offered to the higher tier clubs is that they get to enter the tournament at later stages.  For this round, the 20 teams from the EPL and 24 from the Championship Division join 20 teams from the lower tiers that have survived to this point.to make up the field of 64.  The make up by tier is 20 EPL, 24 Championship, 11 League One, 6 League 2 and 3 National League.

Using teams' current place in their respective table, we can essentially establish what their seedings would be and then examine the interesting fixtures this no seeding approach yields.  Strangest of all may be that Chelsea and Man City face off on Sunday; so with 64 teams you have the No. 2 and No. 10 teams playing each other.  I count four other fixtures between EPL sides; that means top 20 sides have to face each other.  On the other hand, Newcastle get to play League One Sheffield Wednesday Saturday, or No. 3 playing No. 45.  Arsenal have it pretty good, facing No. 51 Oxford United.  So do Spurs (No. 5 vs No. 49 Portsmouth), Aston Villa (No. 11 vs No. 56 Stevenage) and Leicester (No. 13 vs No. 61 Gillingham).

The three sides from the National League (5th tier) are Nos. 62-64; their opponents are ranked 29th, 34th and 53rd.  Arguably they should be facing 1-3 so they got off really easy.  By the way, one of those sides is Wrexham United, the club owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney; they play Coventry at 12:30 on Saturday.  Two of the "luckiest" fixtures have to  be Hartlepool-Stockport (58 vs 60) [correction: It was 57 Walsall vs 58 Stockport] and Burton-Grimsby Town (54 vs 59).

Ah, but it is a magical competition and there will be some fun upsets, as well as a chance to see some of the quainter venues of English football.  For me, there's also the occasional glimpse of some of my FM Forest Green players.  As far as I can tell, there could be up to five appearing this weekend - Matt Clarke (Middlesborough), Gavin Bazunu (Southampton), Will Norris (Burnley), Louis Thompson (Portsmouth) and George Tanner (Bristol City).

In short, we do make fun of the competition but we still dive in and watch as much as we can.