Sliding Doors

The final groups stage matches were like scenes from the film Sliding Doors, except in the movie they only alternated between two scenarios.  Here, it seemed the possibilities were almost infinite.

Also, 36 games to winnow the European Championship field from 24 to 16?  The NBA would be proud.  But it was good entertainment.  The group stage came to an exciting conclusion and we move on to the knockout phase Saturday.  

Also, the Union return to action.

The Undefeated

Three sides - Italy, Belgium, and Netherlands - made it through group stage unscathed.  Italy were just about perfect, scoring seven and allowing none in their three matches.  Belgium were pretty much the same, scoring seven while yielding just one.  If we are grading based on degree of difficulty, Italy's accomplishment easily outpaces the other two countries; they compiled their record in what was arguably the second toughest group while Belgium and Netherlands were blessed with the two easiest groups of the tournament.  Does this translate into further success in the competition?

Shifting Sands

The final day of Group F action was a roller coaster ride.  As scores changed, Germany, Portugal and Hungary took turns being the odd country out.  England's first knockout stage opponent kept changing too, switching among France to Germany to Portugal.  France and Portugal battled to a 2-2 draw with three of the goals coming on penalties; at least one might have really been a penalty.  A little harsh, since nothing was overturned by VAR but there were three calls (one a no-call) that wouldn't have been overturned by VAR had they been called differently on the field.  Germany had to work their keisters off to salvage a draw with Hungary, which was enough for them to grab third.

Speaking of shifting sands, this article from the NYT's Rory Smith highlights how a Finland own goal changed many fates.  Also, good stuff in general about the tournament.

Feel Good Story

Denmark entered the last day of group stage with no points yet somehow still had a chance.  They had a pair of hard luck losses to Finland (after watching their teammate collapse) and Belgium (late game heroics from De Bruyne).  So the scenario required them to beat Russia by at least two and for Finland to lose against Belgium.  At one point it looked good, except that Denmark surrendered a penalty while Belgium had a goal ruled out within minutes of each other, leaving Denmark up by one and Belgium level with Finland past the 70 minute mark.  Then, also practically concurrently, Belgium got their breakthrough goal and Denmark restored their two goal lead.  The goal that mattered can be seen here  (should open at around 4:04).  Pandemonium! If you watch a little further you'll see that both Denmark and Belgium added insurance goals.  Somehow it feels right that the Danes are advancing.

How Many Countries in This Country Made It To the Knockout Stage?

Two.  England was spectacularly mediocre in winning their group with just two goals.  Not yielding any probably helped.  Good to see Grealish in for the last match and setting up Sterling for the lone goal against the Czech Republic with a deft cross.

Wales advance too, largely on the strength of their 2-0 basting besting of Turkey.  They also held Italy to one goal despite being down a man for much of the second half.  Italy might have been on cruise control at that point but still a notable defensive effort.

Alas, Scotland will not be moving on after falling to Croatia 1-3.  That was a nice goal from Luka Modric for the game winner.  The lads play with heart but scoring goals would really help - they got just the one over the three matches.  

Disappointments?

North Macedonia got no points and had a -6 goal differential but we really can't call that a disappointment since they came in ranked 62nd.  Scotland finished 22nd out of 24 with just one point and one goal; to be fair, they came in ranked 44th so they were in for a tough ride.  No, I think we have two stronger (weaker?) candidates.  We offer Poland, ranked 21st, who ironically finish 21st here with just one point and a -2 goal differential.  Or maybe you prefer Turkey, who finish dead last, with no points and a -7 goal differential.   

Surprises?

The Czech Republic are a good candidate; a win over Scotland and draw with Croatia got them one of the third place advances.  Austria are having a decent run, though their reward is a round of 16 fixture with Italy.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Did Not

Dennis:  Did you say Germany are looking exceptionally motivated?

Steve:  No, I said they are playing Hungary

Get It Out of Your System

Slovakia's keeper - Newcastle's own Martin Dubravka - had a good start to the tournament when his side beat Poland.  Things went downhill from there.  In the second match against Sweden, he committed a foul in the box, leading to the only goal of that match.  He was saving his worst for last.  Against Spain, Dubravka ceded the opening score via a horrendous own goal as seen here.  He would see four more go past him before the day was through.  All we can say is better you had that day here than, say, against Brentford in the EPL next fall.

Union Keep Dooping Along

First time for a full Subaru Park - photo from Jeff H

Philadelphia returned to action with a pair of testing matches - Atlanta in their horror show of an indoor arena with artificial turf and last year's MLS Cup Champion Columbus.  In Atlanta, I thought the Union were giving as good as they got (538 metrics back me up on this) but they were down 0-2 in the 82 minute.  Cory Burke got one back in the 84th minute.  In stoppage time, defender Jakob Glesnes got the equalizer on an incredible blast from distance.  We make it this week's  YouTubeableMoment; as the announcer notes, the shot came from a different area code.  You may recall, Glesnes has done this kind of thing before (last year vs LAFC).

Against Columbus, the Union benefited from an early goal courtesy Monteiro - their only shot on target.  Stats suggest a territorial advantage for Columbus but they didn't translate it into too many shots.  Blake had his usual clutch save late.  The 1-0 final flatters the U; that looked like a draw both live and on paper.  I checked the newspaper the next day and it still counts as three points.  

After 10 matches, Philadelphia sit third in the table.  Much work to do if they want to repeat as Supporters Shield winners but they have recovered well from the shaky start.  

Taking It Pretty Well

Dennis seems incredibly calm about reports that Jack Grealish is likely to leave Aston Villa for Man City this summer.  The $140 million transfer fee might have something to do with it.  Also, Villa have a recent history of good acquisitions so maybe his confidence is merited.  Still, it seems like a change fraught with danger; though I don't have the numbers at my fingertips, I recall a staggering difference in points per game with and without Grealish.

Similarly, Michael B (to the extent that he still follows the EPL) is relatively calm about the possible departure of Harry Kane, also to City.  

My silver lining to this?  Maybe Kane and Grealish mean less Sterling.  Some day I'll figure out why I don't like Sterling.

The Company You Keep

Or maybe the investors you attract?  Michael B sends us the picture (left) from his dinner with former Italian soccer star Guiseppe Rossi.  He is a long-time investor with Michael's company.  Michael reports that he was treated to an awesome authentic Southern Italian dinner complete with escargot appetizers, tiramisu for dessert and doppio espresso to close out.  Fortunately, it appears that no grappa was imbibed.

Knockout Stages

The round of 16 runs from Saturday through Tuesday, two each day, one at noon and one at 3 pm.  Arrange your schedules accordingly as there are a pile of intriguing fixtures.

Saturday at 12 -   Wales vs Denmark - I like both sides so will be happy whatever the result.  Denmark would normally be the favorite but without Erikson, not so clear.

Saturday at 3 - Italy vs Austria - This is an in-form Italian side but Austria have been playing well.  

Sunday at 12 - Netherlands vs Czech Republic - On paper this looks good for the Dutch

Sunday at 3 pm - Belgium vs Portugal - Yikes, that sounds like a semi or even a final match up.  Belgium have been steady but mostly untested.  Portugal have been tested but their grades are all over the place.  This is definitely one to watch.

Monday at 12 - Croatia vs Spain - Another interesting one.  Both sides have been growing into the tournament.

Monday at 3 pm - France vs Switzerland - Like the Netherlands, France look the better side on paper and really should take care of business here.

Tuesday at noon - England vs Germany - I would much prefer the Three Lions here.  Both sides have been hard to figure out so far.  England are undefeated but unimpressive.  Germany looked great thrashing Portugal but have been ordinary at other times.

Tuesday at 3 pm - Sweden vs Ukraine - The Swedes have a great opportunity to make it to the quarters with the match up.

The Union will also be in action versus the Chicago Fire on Saturday at 8 pm.  Chicago are really struggling and this is the kind of match Philadelphia needs to win if they want to stay top tier in the MLS.  

Good news at Clearview St - we have new set-top boxes and dvr is working again. It was like the dark ages here for a few weeks.

Match Day Three Recommendations

 Like any major competition with a group stage, the last matches in each group are played concurrently.  This makes it difficult to watch one without hearing the results of the other.  So choices must be made.  Below we will offer our recommendations for each group.

Match Day Three begins Sunday.  This was written before the Spain-Poland match.  Our recommendations draw on our own observations but also the analysis from ESPN provided here.

Group A

Italy are through and Wales with four are probably advancing as well.  Turkey is, ahem, on the chopping block but could mess up Switzerland's hopes.

Should watch: As we noted before the tournament started, you can't pass up Turkey and Swiss (Sunday at noon)

Will watch: Probably Turkey and Swiss but we are enamored of the Wales side (and still hoping for a glimpse of our Forest Green MVP Dylan Levitt).

Group B

Belgium are in. Despite two losses, Denmark still have a chance to finish second.  Russia are in good position but really do want a result against Denmark.

Should watch: Russia - Denmark (Monday at 3 pm)

Will watch: Russia - Denmark (Monday at 3 pm)

Group C

With Netherlands in and North Macedonia out, this is an easy one.

Should watch: Ukraine - Austria (Monday at noon)

Will watch: Ukraine - Austria (Monday at noon)

Group D

Since four points probably gets you in, England and Czech Republic are likely advancing.  Croatia and Scotland, with one point each, need to win.

Should watch: Croatia - Scotland (Tuesday 3 pm)

Will watch: Game time decision.  Would like to see if England get their act together against Czech Republic but Scotland have played with a lot of heart so would also like to see how they do against Croatia.

Group E

Nobody guaranteed anything yet (this is before Spain - Poland), though Sweden are looking pretty.  Would love to see Slovakia advance but they probably need at least a point against Spain.  Note, if Poland lose to Spain, they are out.  If that happens, the choice is clear.  But if Poland get a result, the Sweden - Poland match could be tense.

Should watch: Slovakia - Spain (Wednesday at noon) unless Poland beat Spain, then Sweden - Poland

Will watch: Slovakia - Spain (Wednesday at noon) unless Poland beat Spain, then Sweden - Poland

Group F

France are probably in but could finish as low as third.  With three points, Germany and Portugal have a good chance of advancing too.  Germany should be able to handle Hungary but so should have France.  Both France and Portugal should be properly motivated.

Should watch: Portugal - France (Wednesday 3 pm)

Will watch: Portugal - France (Wednesday 3 pm)

Hope you got to see Portugal vs Germany.  Most exciting match of the tournament so far, especially in the context of Germany falling behind 0-1 and looking at crashing out of the tournament.  Poor Kai Havertz scores the equalizer only to have it be changed to an own goal.  Symbolic of the year he had.  But, he got one that counted later.  At 4-1 Germany looked solid until they gave up a goofy one and Sanches rifled one off the post.  After looking punchless against France, now you have to wonder.

Two of the Countries in This Country

The Scotland - England 0-0 draw was probably a moral victory for the Scots but definitely a let down for the Three Lions.  Too slow in the attack with no creativity does not yield goals.  Grealish did come on around 60 minutes and sparked the team for a bit.  But, as ESPN noted, "the collective malaise soon engulfed him as well."  We will note that when he came on, 13.64% of the players on the pitched were from Aston Villa; no club had more.

Hope to be back Thursday to discuss knockout stage.

Match Day 1

Twelve matches in five days to complete Match Day 1 of the European Championship.  Certainly the biggest story was Christian Erikson's collapse and revival.  You can see he was getting CPR less than two minutes after he collapsed on the field.  I'm not an EMT or a physician (nor do I play one on TV) but that seems like an excellent response time.  Maybe Erikson was lucky.  Or maybe he was saved by technology and trained personnel who knew how to use it.  Following protocols set by medical professionals can save lives?  Imagine that (snark intended).

Hard to say there were any stunning upsets in the first tranche of games.  Maybe Slovakia's 2-1 win over short handed Poland counts.  Newcastle's Martin Dubravka was between the sticks for Slovakia and for him it had to be reminiscent of tending goal for the Magpies - you know, outpossessed, outshot, relying on a few counterattacks, needing an own goal (Syzygy Szczesny, the former Arsenal keeper) and an opponents red card to scrape out a win.  Makes that group (Sweden and Poland are the other two) very interesting.

Best match so far would be Netherlands 3-2 thriller over Ukraine.  The Dutch were cruising comfortably at 2-0 until Ukraine scored twice in quick succession (75th and 79th minutes).  Denzel Dumfries rescued all three points for Netherlands with his goal in the 85th minute.

How Many of the Countries in This Country Are in the Tournament?

Three.  Northern Ireland didn't make it.  England got off to a good start with a 1-0 win over 2018 World Cup Finalist Croatia.  Not that they played all that well.  Good enough to get the win obviously and probably won't have trouble getting to the knockout rounds.  But the Three Lions won't last long without stepping up their game.  Put in Grealish for cryin' out loud.

Wales look considerably worse than Switzerland on the stat sheet but still came away with an important point, drawing 1-1 on a late goal from Kieffer Moore.  I remember feeling like the Welsh deserved this result but couldn't tell you why now.  Wait, now I remember thinking that Jose Mourinho must have been managing the Swiss.  They fashioned a 1-0 with good pressure, then pulled back and Wales made them pay for going conservative.

And Scotland, well, not so good, as you'll read below.

If I Were the NY Post Headline Writer

Italians Gobble Up Turkey

Not traditional Italian fare but it was the only thing on the menu.  They went back for seconds and thirds.  This was the first time in Euro history that Italy scored three goals.  The 3-0 final might actually be an understatement.

Fifty-yard Goal Spells Czech Mate for Scotland

Not that Scotland looked like they were going to come back from 0-1 down to the Czech Republic but Patrik Schick sealed their fate with an incredible bomb from just inside the center line.  Check it out here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Not that the Scots weren't trying hard, they just didn't seem very good and with matches still to go against England and Croatia, well, 

Possession May Be 9/10 of the Law But It Doesn't Guarantee Goals

At one point against Spain, the Swedes were in single digit possession percentage.  They ended at a lopsided 15% possession, even worse than anything Newcastle ever did.  However, as many note, the point is to score and neither did.  Robin Olsen, who backs up Jordan Pickford in goal at Everton, was deserved Player of the Match for some fine saves but part of the issue was the Spaniards not making the most of their opportunities.  We have seen this before.

Portugal Nearly Left Budapest Hungry

Portugal struggled for 83 minutes and the Hungarians looked like they might slip away with a 0-0 draw.  Then the Portuguese poured in three between 84 and 91 minutes.  They did dominate but the scoreline is deceiving.

France Get Maginot Line Right This Time

For those not well-versed in history, the Maginot Line was not three forwards from the French national team in the 1920s but rather a series of fortifications designed to stop German invasion.  Yeah, how did that work out?  For the much anticipated opening round match-up with Germany, they did way better this time, winning 1-0, confirming their status as tournament favorites.  Germany did have 62% possession and 10 shots but only one was on target and obviously, none went in.  France weren't exactly an offensive dynamo, managing just four shots overall and one on target.  And that one on target, wasn't even the goal.  No, that came off the foot of German defender Mats Hummels.  But as with many own goals, the French put the ball in a dangerous position and if Hummels hadn't intervened, it probably would have been deposited in the back of the net by a Frenchman.  France also had one called back, correctly for offside.  The 1-0 final looks right to me.  Also, love him or hate him, Paul Pogba was a force in the match.

VAR Done Right

Kudos to the organizers and referees for judicious and efficient use of VAR.  A few calls have been correctly overturned but with a minimum of disruption.  They must be following BFS guidelines - if it takes more than 15 seconds to decide, it can't be a clear and obvious error.

Hope to be back Sunday with review of Matchday 2.

How Soccer Put Me in The Pour House

Viewing location for
 2021 Champions League Final

Michael B and I found ourselves in the Poconos on the Saturday of the Champions League Final attending the wedding of BFS Fitness Consultant Jeff H's daughter.  Jeff was kind enough to schedule the Saturday evening activities (a picnic!) for 6 pm, ensuring that we would be able to take in the final.  Ah, but where exactly would we do that in Canadensis, PA?  No TVs in our creekside cabins.  Fortunately, we found The Pour House (right), a local tavern that was willing to switch one TV from NBA, NFL, NASCAR and other sports to the final.  We were joined by two brothers from York, PA attending a family reunion who say they never miss the final regardless of where they are.  Also, by an Eastern European - a Man United fan - who came to root for Chelsea to make sure that hated Man City did not win; the enemy of my enemy is my friend, or something like that.  The five of us had a grand old time.

Decent final.  Thought there might have been a bit more scoring but there was enough good attacking football to make it enjoyable.  The 1-0 Chelsea win seemed about right to us.  Was Guardiola outcoached by Tuchel?  Some seemed to think so.  

A Tale of Two Keepers

The final of the other European competition - the Europa League - was pretty cool.  Villarreal did a good job of mostly keeping Man United out of the goal and managed to keep things at 1-1 through extra time.  At the point, a most intriguing PK shootout began.  Five takes for each side and no misses.  Five more takes for each side and no misses.  Therefore, at 10-10, the keepers would face each other.  Geronimo Rulli of Villarreal dispatched his with a plumb aplomb; that's a take worthy of any field player.  David De Gea?  Not so much.  Easily the weakest take of the 22.  Never a big fan of PK shootouts for a championship but this was riveting.  Have to say Villareal earned it with their defense.

Union Beat Crush Portland

When Jeff K showed me the score during the wedding Sunday night (with appropriate warning so no yellow card for spoilers), I was shocked.  Up 3-0?  Only saw the highlights but there were some nice set piece goals in there.  The expected goals at 538 suggest the result was reasonably fair.  So after a weak start to the MLS campaign, the Union now find themselves in second.  Depth is still an issue but Gazdag (pronounced gusDOG), will be available after the Euros so that will help.  A few weeks off is probably helpful too after the hectic spring.  

The Euros!!

By the time you get this, the 2020 European Championships will be underway, with Italy taking on Turkey.  There are plenty of reviews and predictions out there.  The Supercomputer says France wins it all. Some fun observations from Guardian writers here.  With so much info out there, we will do our usual BFS thing and make random observations.

Group of Death

Group F (France, Portugal, Germany and Hungary) clearly deserves the designation but Group A Italy, Switzerland, Wales and Turkey should get some recognition too - the Group of Pain and Suffering?  Here's a ranking of each group based on the latest FIFA rankings - we simply added the ranking of each group member.

Group F - 56

Group A - 66

Group E - 81

Group D - 102

Group B - 103

Group C - 125

With the new format, the top two in each automatically advance but so do the best four third place finishers.  Kind of like the NBA - the group stage will only eliminate eight of 24.  That competition for 2nd and 3rd in some groups could be tough.  Aside from the two groups already mentioned, Group C could be tight between Netherlands, Austria and Ukraine, while Group E is no picnic with Sweden and Poland likely fighting it out behind Spain.

Magpies at the Euros

Emil Krafth - Sweden

Martin Dubravka - Slovakia

Ryan Fraser - Scotland

Fabian Schar - Switzerland

"Tastiest" Group Stage Match

Turkey and Swiss

Other Key Group Stage Matches

In some ways they are too numerous to mention but we'll throw out a few

Wales v Switzerland (Sat 9 am)

England v Croatia (Sun 9 am)

France v Germany (Tues 3pm)

Turkey v Wales (Wed noon)

Netherlands v Austria (Thur 3 pm)

England v Scotland (Fri 3 pm)

Portugal v Germany (next Sat noon)

Spain v Poland (next Sat 3 pm)

Speaking of Pitch Invasions...

Courtesy of BFS Keeper Consultant Graham R, we have this video of a parachutist landing at midfield.  The best part of course, is the calm reaction of the referee as he shows the yellow for delay of game.

What We Said...

Dennis sends this along - EPL will use thicker lines in determining offside during VAR checks, which essentially will make it harder to overturn the call on the field.  In theory it shouldn't favor the attackers or the defenders.  However, with the mandate to ARs to hold the flag on close ones to let the play develop, this probably means fewer overturned goals.  I believe if you review the BFS archives, we suggested something along these, ahem, lines as a solution to the false accuracy of the VAR process.

Gotta go.  When you get this, tune into to see Italy - Turkey if you're not already watching.