Another European Season in the Books

With the Europa League final on Friday and Champions League final on Sunday, the longest European season in history is finally concluded.  Given how things looked back in March, we should be impressed at what they accomplished.  The EFL regular season was complete and unabridged.  The two club competitions did have to drop two-legged ties for single elimination in the late stages but otherwise were mostly uncompromised by the pandemic.  For the fan, it's meant non-stop action for almost two months.  The good news is we start all over again in less than three weeks.

Not that everything is peachy.  The Union put up another lackluster performance and the transfer news and early projections ain't so hot for Newcastle and Aston Villa.  We'll also take a look at a few changes to the English domestic cup competitions.


Champions League Snoozer

I blame the CBSSports pundits.  In the pre-game show, they outlined for us in detail why PSG might be able to exploit Bayern's defensive liabilities for a pile of goals.  Bayern themselves came in with 42 goals in their 10 matches so we had some hopes for a wide open contest.  Didn't happen.  PSG had some okay first half chances that Neuer had to deal with.  Second half was a little more Bayern.  The good news is that it wasn't a mistake or PK that led to the winning goal.  Check out the proper heading technique from Kingsley Coman on the game's only score, this week's   YouTubeableMoment.  Two things to note.  First, the mantra I learned was head down to score, head up to clear; you can see Coman's focus on making sure the ball goes down.  Second, always helpful to head it back in the opposite direction from whence it come; much harder to stop.

Certainly Bayern have earned this one.  Sure, Liverpool ran away with the Premier League title but Bayern were probably the best European club team.  They were hardly pressed in winning the Bundesliga, won their domestic cup and now have the Champions League title too, winning all 11 matches and outscoring opponents 43-8.


Europa League

The Premier League's last representative in European competition - Man United - looked good on paper and on the stat sheet but Sevilla had the 3-1 semi-final win.  The Red Devils already had a Champions League ticket (actually so did Sevilla) but I'm guessing they thought they had a good shot at this cup.  Speaking of devils, Harry Maguire went to Greece to drown his sorrows, allegedly spent £63,000 on lobster and booze, got into a brawl, and ended up getting arrested for assaulting a police officer. Will it enhance his reputation that reportedly five officers were needed to wrestle him to the ground?  Not excusing his behavior but the reports also say he was being taunted by fans of other clubs and his sister was cut with a knife.  BFS has obtained footage of the incident.

Wait, where was I? Right, Sevilla's win set up a very attractive final with Inter Milan and this one lived up to the billing.  This was very much a thrust and parry affair, with each team responding well to the other's tallies.  Lukaku's PK was answered quickly by a header from Luuk de Jong.  Diego Godin leveled things just two minutes after De Jong's second header goal had put Sevilla up 2-1.  Hold the phone.  Is that the same Luuk de Jong who appeared in 12 matches for Newcastle on loan back in 2014 with nary a goal or an assist?  Well, yes and no.  It's the same person but doesn't look like the same player. 

The quintessential thrill of victory/agony of defeat;
Sevilla's Carlos (#20) is thrilled, Lukaku agonizes
Photograph: Lars Baron/Getty Images

The sides couldn't really be expected to keep up that pace and they didn't.  Things got much tighter.  Unfortunately this one came down to an lucky/unlucky break.  Diego Carlos, playing with a heavily taped leg (not Kirk Gibson level but he was definitely hurting) did a bicycle kick that deflected off Lukaku for the game winner in the 74th minute.

So what do we make of this being Sevilla's sixth Europa League title, with three coming in the last six years? Are you a glass half full or half empty person?  Participation in this competition almost always means you didn't finish in the top four in your domestic league; it's definitely a consolation tournament.  So, winning many Europa titles might be on par with, say, the minor league home run record of the fictional Crash Davis.  Before Bob K goes apoplectic, we note that because the Champions League limits the number of clubs from each domestic league to allow broader participation across the continent, there are top quality teams in Europa League.  It's a grueling competition that generally requires Thursday evening games in exotic European venues, which also leads to many Sunday matches in your domestic league.  Plus, at BFS, we think hardware is hardware.


The Coming Season

Well this, while not surprising, is not encouraging.  As we argued last week, Newcastle are not a mid-table side and the projection of 17th doesn't seem silly to me.  Aston Villa miraculously stayed up but the prediction for 18th seems right too.

Fortunately, both are working hard in this transfer window.  Right.  Newcastle have added GK Mark Gillespie from the Scottish club Motherwell.  Hard to see this as meaningful as Martin Dubravka has been excellent in goal plus they have Karl Darlow and Freddie Woodman in reserve.  GenieScout, the data base I use in conjunction with Football Manager, doesn't project Gillespie, already 28, to be better than Woodman.   Newcastle have also added former Burnley mid-fielder Jeff Hendrick. He's not bad but he's also not an improvement over Sean Longstaff, Isaac Hayden, or Jonjo Shelvey.  At 28, there's not much upside potential.  So far, this is the proverbial rearrangement of deck chairs on the Titanic.

Things look a little brighter in Birmingham.  However, Dennis reminds us that this is the club that got Adama Traore for $11 million but let him go for $9 million a year later.  Two years after that, Wolves got him for $22 million and now see him worth well north of $50 million.  This made Dennis sad angry react like this.  Worse, there is still talk of Grealish going to Man United for £50 m plus keeper Sergio Romero; yeah that makes sense.  But there is better news.  They have a good shot at Celtic's Odsonne Edouard, who would be a massive improvement over Mbwana "What" Samatta at striker.  Also hear they might be interested in Chelsea's Conor Gallagher, who could bolster the midfield and at 20 has huge upside potential.

A full list of transfers in and out is available here.  Some of the more notable moves include Willian from Chelsea to Arsenal and Hojbjerg from Southampton to Spurs.  The window is open until October 5 so there's a long way to go.


Cup Changes

Because more has to be crammed into less time, there will be no replays for FA Cup matches.  Bad news for lower division clubs that sometimes eke out a draw with a Premier League side at home, then get a big payday with the replay at the bigger club's venue.  The Carabao Cup will scrap two-legged semi-finals for a single elimination match, for basically the same reason.  Early round matches will be held in consecutive weeks in September, presumably allowing for some continuity of interest but making for a crowded month.

EPL fixtures were announced.  Yep, you still play everybody twice, once at your place, once theirs.


Union Muddle Through

The good news is that the Union, despite the absence of any consistent form, still only have one loss.  The bad news is that they don't look very good.  The 0-0 draw with New England was ugly, truly a match worthy of the Gillette Stadium venue.  Neither side looked capable of scoring.  A bright spot for the U was that Matt "Get" Real subbed for the injured Kai Wagner and looked pretty good.  The team sits in 5th but it's so early, there's not much spread across the table.

They have five matches on the schedule - Red Bulls (home on 8/25), DC United (home on 8/29), Columbus (away on 9/2), Red Bulls (away on 9/6) and New England (home on 9/12).  Presumably, there will be more matches announced soon.


Gone Fishin'

Going to take a couple weeks off.

Smoke and Mirrors

So it's August, when a young man's fancy turns to the new EPL season or perhaps taking a hard look at his favorite MLS franchise's playoff hopes.  This year it's about cups contested in Cologne, Duisburg, Dusseldorf, Gelsenkirchen, Lisbon and Orlando (one of these is not like the others).   We'll see how Champions League, Europa League and MLS Is Back are doing (or did, yeah, I'm a little behind).  Plus, we take a closer look at Newcastle results that suggests the Mike Ashley needs to pry open his wallet for this transfer window or the Magpies are going to struggle next year.

Union Run Out of Luck

I thought the U were leading a charmed life in Orlando as they worked their way through the group stage and into the semi-finals.  That luck ended in a 1-2 loss to eventual tournament winner, the Portland Timbers.  An unmarked Ebobisse gave the Timbers the early lead.  Sergio Santos, after the softest of fouls in the box, skied his PK over the cross bar late in the first half.  Both Dennis and Jeff H say they saw that miss coming.  Blanco doubled the lead in the 70th minute and the Union looked dead in the water.  Andrew Wooten made the finish interesting after he cleaned-up Monteiro's saved free kick in the 85th minute but that was as close as they got.  In the end, the result seemed more than fair to me. 

A few days later, Portland slipped past upstart Orlando in the final 2-1.  Can't say I remember much from the match.  I recall thinking that Orlando did a good job here. They had more possession, shots were 14-13, expected goals were 3.3-2.2.  Part of the problem was they only managed one shot on target.

Jeff H will not recoup the cost of his new Subaru through
savings on parking at Union matches

In some ways hardware is hardware, no matter how artificial the competition so congrats to Portland.  Further, despite my reservations, this tournament ended up being reasonably fun to watch and the players certainly seemed more into than I would have expected. 

They now proceed with a regular season that is not fully laid out yet.  Games are set up through September 16.  I haven't checked all the schedules but for the Union it means six more matches.  Their season will resume on Thursday at Gillette Stadium (arguably second worst MLS venue behind only Yankee Stadium) against New England.  Though the matches will be played in the home parks, few venues will be allowing fans.  This is unfortunate since Jeff H recently purchased a Subaru with the expectation that it would mean free parking for Union home matches. 


The View from Europe

Just as everyone predicted, the Champions League semis will feature two sides from Germany and two from France.  Right.  This is first time since 1996 there are no English or Spanish teams in the semis and the first since 1991 with no English, Spanish or Italian teams.  How did this happen?

The Cinderella side of Atalanta seemed poised to steal a berth from PSG after Neymar missed at least three wide open opportunities.  The Italian side had clearly been outplayed and frankly did not distinguish itself in wracking up 29 fouls.  But there they were at 89 minutes with a 1-0 lead.  Unfortunately for them, a match is 90 minutes plus stoppage time.  Their downfall is chronicled here.  Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, subbed on in the 79th minute, plays a key role in Marquinhos' equalizer in the 90th minute and then scores the game winner at 93 minutes.

On Wednesday, Atletico Madrid might view themselves unlucky losing to RB Leipzig 1-2 on a deflected shot by American Tyler Adams in the 88th minute.  On the other hand, the Mattress Makers (no, that really is Atleti's nickname) didn't look to be at their best.

Thursday's match was - wait this must be a typo - Bayern 8 Barcelona 2? When the match began with the teams trading goals in the first 10 minutes, hopes were high for a classic between two high profile sides.  Then Bayern pushed through three more by the 31st minute.  Suarez got one back and at 4-2, maybe some hope of exciting finish.  Nope.  Bayern poured in four more as the match took on a practice session quality.  The German side was a clear favorite but not like this.  Discussions of a Barcelona make over dominated the late stages of commentary.

In the last quarterfinal, Man City entered as heavy favorites over Olympique Lyonnais and mostly outplayed them so of course they lost 1-3.  Some serious smash and grab counterattacking from the French meant that City's statistical advantages like 72/28 possession, 18/7 shots, 11/3 corners and 2.2/.7 expected goals didn't mean much.  A sad footnote for the match, it was the last appearance of David Silva in a City uniform and we probably won't see him in the EPL next year. 

So the semis are set with RB Leipzig - PSG on Tuesday and Lyon - Bayern on Wednesday.  PSG are prohibitive favorites and Lyon are heavy underdogs to Bayern.  Both matches are on CBS All Access (you can sign up and get a free month).  You can also see them on CBSSports (Verizon channel 594 in Philly) but on same-day delay. 

Meanwhile, over in the NIT Europa League, Man United were barely able to slip past Copenhagen thanks to an extra time PK from Fernandes.  Wolves were not so lucky against Sevilla, never really getting untracked and falling 0-1.  The Europa semis are Man United - Sevilla (Sunday) and Inter Milan - Shakhtar Donetsk on Monday.  Same viewing deal as Champions League.


Warning: Statistical Wonkery Ahead

I cannot remember a season with more improbable results for Newcastle.  How about the match with Everton when Florian LeJeune of all people scored two in stoppage time to snatch a 2-2 draw?  Or the time Tottenham ran Newcastle ragged and came away with a 0-1 loss?  There are some hard luck results too but nowhere near as many, at least based on my recollection.  Support for that view comes from 538, which had Newcastle ranked 19th, ahead only of Norwich.  So what gives?  Were the Magpies lucky?  Was there more than meets the eye?

I dissected the season using a couple of tools - expected goals data available at 538 (on downloadable Excel spreadsheet no less!) and a formula I developed to estimate how many points a team should earn based on their goals scored and allowed (call it ETP for now).  With the expected goals data, we can see whether Newcastle scored or gave up more or less than they should have based on the types of shots taken and non-shooting actions (methodology is explained here).  Of course we can debate whether differences between actual and expected reflect luck (good or bad) or some inherent trait in the team.   With the point formula, we can get a sense of whether a team the benefited or was hurt by the distribution of the goals across the games.  To see how that matters, say a team scored two and allowed two over three games.  They could come away with three, four or six points from those three games depending on how the goals were distributed.  Again, we can debate how much of that is luck or "clutch" performance. 

On the expected goals front, Newcastle scored four more than expected and allowed 10 less than expected.  If I do a game-by-game retally based on expected goals (calling matches with less than a .3 difference a draw), I get Newcastle with just 16 points.  That's the biggest difference in the league.  All teams results are presented below.

	Expected	Actual	Difference
Manchester City	99	81	-18
Liverpool	97	99	2
Chelsea	92	66	-26
Leicester City	75	62	-13
Manchester United	72	66	-6
Wolverhampton	63	59	-4
Southampton	59	52	-7
Everton	56	49	-7
Watford	56	34	-22
Arsenal	50	56	6
Tottenham Hotspur	45	59	14
Brighton and Hove Albion	44	41	-3
Burnley	44	54	10
Sheffield United	44	54	10
Crystal Palace	33	43	10
West Ham United	30	39	9
Aston Villa	28	35	7
AFC Bournemouth	27	34	7
Norwich City	21	21	0
Newcastle	16	44	28

But it looks like the distribution of expected goals was unlucky.  A team that scores 34 and allows 68 should get about 27 points.  Even allowing for that though, Newcastle would still have finished dead last. 

So what about the differences between expected and actual?  There has been talk about how good Dubravka is - maybe that's part of it.  Turns out that is entirely possible.  In the 18/19 season Newcastle allowed 12 fewer goals than expected.  In the 17/18 season they yielded five fewer than expected in the 12 matches he was between the sticks.  In the other 26 matches that season, they were seven better.  So this looks to be a consistent thing with Newcastle that Dubravka has accentuated.

On the offensive side, there is no consistency.  In 17/18 they scored five less than expected, in 18/19 they were one goal better.  So I started to play around with using expected scored but actual allowed.  That would mean 34 scored and 58 allowed.  With ETP, that says they should end up with about 31 points.  But if I go through game by game and retally using expected scored and actual allowed, I get 46 points.  In short, it wasn't only that they were yielding fewer goals than it expected, it was also when they didn't allow those goals. 

I'm concluding that about half of the difference in the point total looks to be related to a defense that consistently outperforms expectations but the other half was a lucky distribution of goals allowed.  That would say that 30 points is about right.  For a smell test I went through match-by-match and based on my sense of the game, what was a realistic outcome.  I got 31 points.  There are just too many matches like the 1-0 wins over Man United and Chelsea in which the opposition played well enough to have earned at least a draw.  My conclusion is that this is a not a mid-table squad and absent some serious upgrades, next year will be another slog to avoid relegation.

Ironically, the only signing to date is Mark Gillespie, a goalkeeper.  But we have heard about interest in Bournemouth's Callum Wilson and Joshua King.  That might help.  I wouldn't have minded getting Adam Lallana but Brighton already snatched him up.

Two notes on the table above.  Check out Chelsea's "underperformance" by 26 points.  That is largely driven by allowing 15 more goals than expected.  It is possible that Chelsea's save percentage of 54.8% (the lowest in the league by almost 10%) had something to do with that.  The correlation between the difference of expected to actual goals allowed and save percentage is 86%, as in save percentage explains 86% of the variation in the difference.  Certainly Kepa has his critics, though some wonder about the defense in front of him.

And then there is demoted Watford, a massive 22 points worse than projected.  They scored 15 fewer than expected, the largest by far but also yielded almost eight more than expected.  Haven't gone through their season in detail so I haven't sorted out how much might be simply bad luck.  But this is a side that had done well in their first two seasons back up in the EPL.

Okay, enough of the wonkery...though I do hope to continue going over this data for insights into how the game works.  I blame 538 for making the data so accessible.

Go enjoy some of the August NHL action.
 

Young Americans

Musical Accompaniment courtesy David Bowie

Rising American soccer talent was on display this week on both sides of the Atlantic.  We present two examples here - both from the "greater" Philadelphia area.

U Look Mahvelous

Medford's Brenden Aaronson was in the middle of Philly's three-goal, 15 minute outburst that carried them past Sporting Kansas City 3-1 and into the MLS Is Back semi-finals.  Check out the shoulder dip after receiving the pass from Bedoya that allows him to beat two defenders before he sends an incredible pass into the box for Sergio Santos to deposit into the goal - an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.

This was not your father's Union.  The goals came quickly and easily.  By the 39th minute, they were up 3-0.  Things weren't as awesome after that point but how could they be?  They surrendered a goal in first half stoppage time and SKC definitely had the run of play in the second half.  But that's the advantage of creating and converting opportunities early and often.  The victory seemed deserved to me.

Santos had two goals, including a more-than-half-field breakaway.  Blake had another six saves.  Also, Jose' Martinez got his requisite yellow at 25 minutes; I think the over/under was 31 minutes.  Martinez is the prime beneficiary of this tournament's no suspension for accumulation of yellow cards policy.  He's picked up three cards in four appearances at 34, 27 and 25 minutes.  I guess it's saying something that he's played that many minutes on a yellow card without picking up a second one.


Record 14th FA Cup for Arsenal

FA Cup still means something, at least to these guys

An ocean away, Hershey's Christian Pusilic got Chelsea off to a promising start with this superb effort.  See how his first touch drags the ball into space and he deftly lifts the shot in the opposite direction.   Yeah, Giroud's flick pass was pretty cool too.  Unfortunately, for Chelsea, things went downhill from there.  Aztecupilate Apsequilta Dave got whistled for a foul in the box and Oboomerang Obamayeng Aubameyang converted the PK.  Not 10 minutes later, Dave is hobbling off with a thigh injury.  Two minutes into the second half, Pulisic joins him on the bench with a hamstring injury.  Certainly Christiansen and Pedro are more than adequate replacements but this is not the team Lampard wanted out there.

Yet Chelsea arguably still have the run of play.  Except it is Arsenal who take the lead at 67 minutes, with Aubameyang again the goal scorer.  Hope for a rousing finish was muted when Kovacic picked up his second yellow at 73 minutes.  Soft yellow maybe.  Chelsea's day is perhaps best symbolized by the injured Pedro being stretchered off after seriously hurting his elbow with a minute to go.

This is not meant to cheapen Arsenal's historic win.  They clearly played better in the second half of the season and maybe Arteta has them moving in the right direction.  Arsenal fans will probably relish the fact that the win consigns Tottenham to the qualifying stage of the Europa Cup.  For Spurs, this means some September and October matches in Faroe Islands, Greece or maybe Kazakhstan.  Frequent flyer miles, baby.


Ashley to Retain Ownership of Newcastle for the Present

With mixed emotions I report that the proposed sale of Newcastle to a Saudi-backed consortium has fallen through.  The official reason given:

“Unfortunately the prolonged process under the current circumstances coupled with global uncertainty has rendered the potential investment no longer commercially viable.”

On the surface that makes some sense but one wonders if there is more to it.  Details can be had here.

This is mostly a disappointing development.  After years of relegation-challenged seasons, there was hope that a well-heeled ownership group would lift Newcastle to top half of the table and maybe some top six challenges.  Worse, my preliminary dive into Newcastle's season suggests that they seriously overachieved in 2019/20 and are nowhere near as good as they appeared.  Under Ashley's ownership, we can expect a tepid transfer window with minimal upgrades and another season in the bottom quartile.

The only positive I take away is that Newcastle will not be owned by a government with a less than savory recent history.  I was already getting tired of defending the ownership with "well, there are alleged human rights violations but nothing has been proven yet" or "show me a country without some skeletons in the closet."


The Most Lucrative Match in Football

Wanna see what a £150 million goal looks like?  Watch here as Joe Bryan, in extra time, puts in a free kick from about 40 yards out to give Fulham a 1-0 lead over Brentford in the Championship division promotion final.  This was a tense match with neither side distinguishing itself as finishers.  Bryan added a second goal before Brentford got one back in the closing seconds for the 2-1.  The promotion final earns the winner a final spot in next season's Premier League, with all the TV and other revenue, making it worth about £150 million to the winning team.

Memorable commentary from the announcers.  When Anthony Knockaert returned to the lockerroom prior to be subbed in, at first they expressed disbelief that a professional wasn't fully prepared to enter the match.  Quickly though they suggested that maybe he had to take a "nervous wee."  With the prospect of £150 million PKs looming, this might be understandable.  He was then left waiting on the sidelines forever waiting for a break in play prompting the comment, "he was standing there like he was waiting for a night bus."  And with the score still 1-0 and Brentford pressing like crazy, a moment of chaos was like someone "threw a cat among the pigeons."  Great visuals.


Keep It Coming

Action continues on three fronts.

Europa League competition resumes Wednesday and Thursday to complete the Round of 16.  Wednesday, Man United take on LASK at Old Trafford holding a 5-0 lead after the first leg so they look like a good bet for the quarterfinals.  Wolves have work to do on Thursday as they are 1-1 with Olympiacos; at least it's a home match for them.  The quarter finals will be 8/10-11, the semis 8/16-17 and the final 8/21.  I had thought maybe you could see these on TNT or B/R Live but not seeing them on the schedule.

The Union are featured in Wednesday's MLS Is Back semi-final against Portland at 8 pm on FS1.  I am surprised to see that 538 has them favored over Portland (57-43).  Many things have been going right for the Union in this tournament but this seems like a long shot.  Orlando - Minnesota is the other semi, Thursday at 8 pm on ESPN2.  The final is Tuesday night at 8:30 on ESPN.

Champions League matches also resume this weekend.  Friday has Juventus - Lyon (0-1 after the first leg) and Man City - Real Madrid (2-1).  Saturday is Bayern - Chelsea (3-0) and Barcelona - Napoli (1-1).  All matches are at 3 pm.  All four can be seen on CBSSports (594 for Philadelphia FIOS customers).  The catch is that only the Man City and Barcelona matches will be live.  Juventus-Lyon is replayed at 7:30 pm Friday and Bayern - Chelsea can be seen at 12 am Sunday morning.

A decent list of fixtures that makes the delayed start of the 2020/21 EPL tolerable.