Thanks for "Schar"-ing

Hip rehabbing and professoring will again limit the post.  Fortunately, those activities are not cutting into how much I can watch, just how much time I have to write about stuff.


Unlikely Source of Goals

Newcastle's latest scoring threat - Fabian Schar

Center defender Fabian Schar scored twice to power Newcastle to a relatively easy 3-0 over relegation rival Cardiff City.  One of the goals was off a corner, which is not necessarily unheard of from defenders, but the first was an awesome dribble penetration and a deftly placed finish.  The two goals mean that Schar is now the Magpies 4th leading scorer.  Six of their 19 goals in EPL action have come from defenders.  Sounds like somebody needs some fresh scoring threats.

Josh Murphy came on late for Cardiff but Benitez did not counter with his twin brother Jacob.  So we missed out on the chance, for just the third time in EPL history, for twin brothers to be on the pitch at the same time.  The last time it happened?  When Newcastle faced Cardiff earlier this year; the brothers were on the field together the 70th to 78th minute.

The win moved Newcastle out of the bottom three but only up to 17th and still just two points clear of the dreaded relegation zone.  With upcoming matches against Man City and Spurs, it's unlikely we'll see significant movement out of danger for a little while.


Pool Winners

Newcastle look set to complete a loan deal for Jordan Lukaku (Romelu's brother) - though I guess the deal technically hasn't been finalized.  But, last I checked the US Government was still shut down so those who went with Newcastle signing a player in the January transfer window are winners.  Details on Jordan Lukaku here.  This doesn't seem like a fantastic signing but it does seem to make the team better.  I am reminded of an earlier BFS post about the "Lesser Brothers Syndrome," which is reprinted below:

Philadelphia - The City of the Lesser Brother

The Phillies are famous for getting the less talented brother on their roster.  Other clubs got Joe and Dom DiMaggio, George Brett, Joe Torre, Greg Maddux, and Jason Giambi.  We got Vince, Ken, Frank, Mike and Jeremy.  With the signing of Giliano Wijnaldum, younger brother of Liverpool's Georginio, the Union may be taking a page from that playbook.  Earnie Stewart thinks Giliano is a potential steal who will provide some depth at left back.  He was playing in the second division of German football.

Yeah, how'd that work out for the Union?  Here's hoping Newcastle do better with Jordan.


Around the League

This blogger is pleased to have suggested that the Wolves-Leicester match was worth checking out.  Those who got up at 7:30 or otherwise DVRed the match were treated to an awesome back and forth 4-3 contest that was decided in the 93rd minute by Wolves Diogo Jota completing his hat trick.  Since it wasn't the only stoppage time winner we can only make it this week's co-YouTubeable Moment. Liverpool's surprisingly difficult 4-3 over Crystal Palace was pretty good viewing as well.  Perhaps an unnoticed footnote of that match was Milner being sent off late for his second yellow.  BFS Referee and Goal Keeper Consultant Graham R. noted that referee Jonathan Moss and Milner have a connection.  Less exciting was Arsenal's 2-0 win over Chelsea; basically the Gunners kicked Chelsea's Sarri asses.  And the manager expressed, in no uncertain terms, his displeasure with the Blues performance.  Sunday's early match featured Man City in their abominable alternate kits winning by their usual field goal over Huddersfield.  The late match was maybe not the highest quality but worth it if only for the ending.  Spurs snatched a 2-1 victory over Fulham from the jaws of a draw with a last second tally by Harry.  No not Kane.  The other Harry.  Winks. We'll make it this week's co-YoutTubeable Moment; wish I could have found a video from the stands with a bunch of Spurs fans.  Newcastle fans salute you by the way; we have a tough enough row to hoe without teams like Fulham picking up extra points from top six sides.

Have you noticed how stratified the table is right now?  There's a clear top six.  Man United, on the basis of their unimpressive 2-1 over Brighton coupled with Chelsea's loss are now just three points short of fourth.  Remarkable when we think of where they were before.  Then we have a clear mid-table stretching from 7th to 13th (we'll give Brighton the benefit of the doubt right now but they might be slipping into a relegation battle).  And then there's 14th through 20th, with none of those teams more than three points clear of the relegation zone.


Busy Busy

Friday - Monday sees FA Cup 4th Round action.  Pretty sure only ESPN+ for that stuff.  Will definitely see Newcastle Watford at 10 on Saturday.  Might get to see Arsenal-Man United on Friday at 3 pm (nasty draw that one).  Should be able to catch Crystal Palace-Tottenham at 11 am on Sunday.

Then quick turnaround for EPL matches on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Except that fixture list looks uninviting.  We'll watch Newcastle - Man City on Tuesday because we have to.  My choice for Wednesday might end up being Southampton-Crystal Palace for the relegation consequences.  The TV choices are Man United-Burnley on Tuesday and Bournemouth-Chelsea on Wednesday.  Not getting chills down your spine? Yeah, me neither.

Doesn't mean we won't watch though.

PS - It appears US may actually open before Newcastle close the deal for Lukaku.

Baloney Again

Going to have to keep it short as meetings and appointments beckon. 

Newcastle were not totally outclassed in the 1-2 defeat to Chelsea.  They were in it right to the bitter end, which was a stupid short corner by Ritchie and Atsu that look like a total waste.  A brave effort but still no points.  Worse, the nightmare scenario I outlined last week did become reality and by Saturday’s end, Newcastle were back in the relegation zone.  The most nightmarish part?  Burnley beat Fulham 2-1 without registering a shot on goal.  Say what?  Yes, Fulham surrendered two own goals.  At 538, the Magpies are listed at 32% chance of relegation, which is better than Cardiff (49%), Fulham (76%), and Huddersfield (92%), but no one else. 

Our ace - Ciaran Clark
Photograph: Andrew Couldridge/Action Images via Reuters

A clear sign that your team has trouble putting the ball into the net?  Your second best goal scorer is a center back, and a part timer to boot.  No disrespect at all to Ciaran Clark; he’s been an important role player.  But there’s no way he should be our number two scorer.

We did manage a 4-2 road win over Blackburn in the FA Cup replay but that came with a hefty price tag.  First, both Clark and Lascelles left with injuries.  Second, because they surrendered a 2-0 lead, the match went into extra time – yes, another 30 minutes of football this overextended and injury-ridden squad absolutely did not need.  So we get Watford at home in the 4th round.

Around the League

West Ham continue to do well, besting Arsenal 1-0.  Ready to give up those sea green away kits yet?  Brighton was brave against Liverpool but still fell 0-1.  Conditions were so bad at Goodison Park that I actually saw an assistant referee in a long-sleeve shirt.  First half was about as awful as the conditions but the second half was lively enough.

Tottenham vs Man United delivered a gem of a match.  Neutrals and Red Devil fans were likely thrilled.  And surprisingly, even Spurs fans were pretty cool about the 0-1 defeat.  Tottenham had plenty of chances.  De Gea was excellent in goal but you have to say that Kane et al were not as clinical in their finishing as we’ve seen them.  Ruh roh, looks like Man United might be back in the top four chase. 

New Pool

Will Newcastle sign a player in this transfer window before the partial US government shut down ends?  Two pretty stubborn, immovable forces involved.  Should be a close contest.

Ironic Names

Michael B will not let me hear the end of it if I do not mention that in the FA Cup match, Newcastle's Sean Longstaff marked Blackburn's Richie Smallwood.  

Schedule

Much good stuff ahead for weekend that promises snow, freezing rain, downpours and single digit temperatures.  The rest of the world will likely be focused on other matches but we will have all eyes on the six pointer of all six pointers - Newcastle hosting Cardiff City.  This was a 0-0 draw in Wales, a "classic" in which Cardiff could not score against 10-man Newcastle and Kenedy was stopped on a PK that could have given the Magpies the win in stoppage time.  I'm expecting a very tense crowd at St. James' Park that could turn on the team at the first sign of trouble.  This is a team that Newcastle simply must beat at home if they are to avoid relegation.  I guess that qualifies as a must-win game.  Here's hoping that the FA Cup win, even if in extra time, has the Magpies in a good place mentally.  The match is at 10 on NBC Gold.

Big London derby for the feature match on NBC at 12:30 Saturday - Arsenal hosting Chelsea.  The Blues are in better form and have a six-point cushion over the Gunners.  A draw really isn't going to be enough for Arsenal if they really do want to compete for a top four slot.

NBCSN has Wolves-Leicester at 7:30 Saturday morning, then Liverpool-Crystal Palace at 10.  The former has a chance to be a good flowing competitive match between two solid mid-table sides.  Liverpool should be heavy favorites at home against the Eagles but do have some injury issues.  Bonus TV coverage is CNBC with Man United vs Brighton, also at 10 am.

Sunday matches look like potential blow-outs but we will be watching to make sure they do in fact turn out that way.  We totally need Man City to dispose of Huddersfield (under new management as David Wagner "stepped down") and for Tottenham to come away from Fulham with all three points.  I realize that Spurs will be missing Kane (injury) and Son (Asian Cup duty) but as I noted earlier, Fulham seem more than happy to put the ball into their own net.  Also, too, Llorente, Dele and Moura are not exactly chopped liver.

Keep warm and dry - just stay inside and watch soccer all weekend.

Our Cups Runneth Over

No league action just FA Cup and Carabao Cup stuff.  Going to be heavy on links to random events/stories around the soccer world this week.


Beware of the Minnows

Recall that the third round is where the top two divisions make their first appearance in the FA Cup. That means there were 20 teams from the lower leagues of English football (the so-called minnows) still afloat heading into the weekend.  And 10 of them are still alive after the weekend.  Here's a good article on the unlikeliest of the survivors - Barnet from the 5th division (who beat Sheffield United) and Oldham and Newport from League 2 (4th division) who beat Fulham and Leicester respectively.

Matt Ritchie scores penalty for Newcastle against Blackburn.
 Photograph: Lee Smith/Action Images via Reuters

Overall, the EPL teams had 12 wins, 6 losses and 2 draws.  One of those draws was unfortunately Newcastle, who looked uncomfortably similar to a mediocre Championship division team in Blackburn.  This match was at home but the Magpies needed a PK from Matt Ritchie to even come away with a draw.  So we get a midweek fixture in an already congested schedule.  The evidence that Newcastle need reinforcements keeps mounting but no action, only rumors.  The wage demands of Almiron seem excessive to me for an unproven (at least in terms of EPL experience) player so I'm not faulting them on that transaction.  But something clearly needs to be done to spark the offense.

Liverpool got bounced by Wolverhampton but this might not be as big a surprise given 1) the funky line up that Klopp sent out for the match and 2) Wolves proclivity (discussed last week) to be a pain to the top sides.  League One (3rd division) teams acquitted themselves nicely with  five wins and two draws against six losses; the wins included one Premier side and two Championship sides so they punched above their weight.

Replays for the four draws will be next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Fourth round matches are Saturday, January 26th.  The quaint practice of not seeding teams means that one of those matches will be Arsenal vs Man United.  Tough draw.  Though Spurs will be favored, you can say that Crystal Palace - Tottenham is one of the toughest draws in the next round as well.  Prospects for the minnows?   Newport City is away to Championship side Middlesbrough, Oldham has drawn an away match with League One side Doncaster and Barnet is home to Championship Brentford.  Could have been worse.  If I read the schedule right, there should be at least six non-EPL sides standing after the fourth round.

Jeff K sent around this article discussing how much of the magic is gone but the FA Cup still has its moments.  On the non-magical side of the ledger, I note that just 36,000 fans showed up at Saint James' Park for the FA Cup match with Blackburn.  This from a city that regularly packed in 52,000 for second division matches just two years ago.


Carabao Cup and the VAR Fainting Couch

Man City made hash (9-0) of Burton in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi.  Tottenham - Chelsea was, ahem, a bit more interesting.  Spurs take a 1-0 lead to Stamford Bridge based on Harry Kane's converted PK.  How the PK came to be is the story, one that the anti-VAR forces are more than happy to retell.  So Harry Kane took a pass and headed towards the Chelsea goal.  The AR raised his flag to signal offside but referee Michael Oliver did not blow the whistle to stop play.  So Kane proceeded into the box, where he was unceremoniously dumped by Chelsea's keeper Kepa.  Everybody's upset but Michael Oliver remained calm and said, yes we're going to look at it.  Note that there were two decisions to be reviewed - the offside and the potential foul in the box.  The views available for VAR suggested that Kane was onside and that there was indeed a foul in the box.

I swear, other than Harry Kane, I can't find anybody saying good things about this call.  A particularly nasty review from Deadspin is here, though note that the writer already hates VAR. Pochettino didn't like it because it took too long; maybe but remember there were two decisions to review.  Plus, the ball had gone over the end line so play was stopped anyway.  Sarri was upset because most of his players shut down when the AR raised his flag but more so because his people found a different camera angle (not available to the VAR) that suggested Kane was indeed offside.  As to the first point, please to STFU as every player from U12 on up should know that just because the AR raises the flag, the play is not offside until the referee blows the whistle.  With VAR, players better get used to this.  I have a little more sympathy on the second point, but note that the second view is not level with the AR either so it's going to be biased towards looking like it's offside.  More generally, just stop demonizing VAR because it's not perfect.


Union Hot Stove Activity

A little scary as it seems like the pilot light on the Hot Stove portion of the season has gone out.  Ray Gaddis is re-signed.  Tanner has traded all our Super Draft picks to Cincinnati for cash.  Details are here.  By themselves I don't have problem with either action.  Gaddis seems like a handy defender to have around.  I can also see Tanner's point that getting players at age 22 may be too late for serious professional development.  But the issue is, as Jeff H notes, that basically we lost and have not replaced the key playmaker from last year's squad.  Maybe the money from the draft picks and the Rosenberry trade will be enough to find a suitable replacement.  But opening day is less than two months away and you have to say we are worse team at this point.


Your Pies Are Shit

Vegan pie and chips at the Forest Green Rovers’ stadium
Photo:Joseph Fox

Then we have this item courtesy of my acupuncturist Rachel, who let me know that she had heard an English football team had gone vegan.  Quick check on the internet and here's the story.  Ah yes, Forest Green.  They were featured in this space a few years ago based on their plans to build an all wood stadium.  The club is now certified as carbon neutral.  Away fans do taunt them about their pies but food consumption at the stadium is actually up since the change.  Forest Green were fifth division a few years ago but now sit in 6th place in League Two. Promotion to League One is definitely a possibility.


Geiger Retires

Philip S notes that American referee Mark Geiger has retired.  This article suggests nagging injuries are to blame.  He'll continue to be heavily involved in refereeing, just not on the pitch.  Too bad; at 44 we might have expected to see him in a few more World Cups.


Schedule

Any weekend which could end with your team in the relegation zone is a scary one.  But with Burnley hosting Fulham and Cardiff at Huddersfield, some teams at the bottom are going to get points.  Wins by Burnley, Cardiff and Southampton (at Leicester) would be enough to sink the Magpies to 18th.

But Newcastle could win its match.  Right.  We're on the road to Chelsea for Saturday's featured 12:30 match on NBC.  I don't see a good result there.

A London Derby starts things off bright and early Saturday with West Ham hosting Arsenal (7:30 NBCSN).  The 10 am TV match is Brighton - Liverpool.  I might be tempted to look in on some of those relegation specials instead.

Sunday is a good double header starting off with Everton-Bournemouth at 9:15, then Tottenham - Man United at Wembley at 11:30.  The Red Devils have been cruising under Ole Gunnar's leadership but they really haven't been tested since he took over.  Spurs should be a bit more competitive.

The Man City steamroller hosts Wolves at 3 pm on Monday.  On paper it looks like a blow out but remember last week's table showing how Wolves have done versus top six sides.

Enough with these Cup distractions, let's get back to league play.

Lump of Coal to Newcastle Again

Pretty sure I used that header before but it's another Christmas season in which Newcastle got a lump of coal in its proverbial stocking.

I believe my tally for the 14 Days of Football was all or part of 20 out of 40 matches.  I remember some of them.  Some might say get a life.  In my defense, since I was limited to a daily walk around the block with a walker, it's not like there were a lot of other things I could have been doing. 

Here's the BFS rating system:

From Paul McCartney - "Simply having a wonderful Christmastime"

Santa obviously read your list very carefully

Nice enough but you didn't get the Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time you really wanted

Ties are a nice gift but how many do you really need?

 

You may have been naughtier than you realized

Newcastle - 

The draw with Watford kept this from being a lump of coal.  Two points and one goal in the four matches is pretty pathetic.  The points came from draws to Fulham and Watford.  The losses were 0-4 to Liverpool and 0-2 to Man United.  Only Huddersfield, which got no points, fared worse over the holiday season.  To be fair, there were times when the Magpies weren't awful; the defense continues to be reasonably stout and well-organized.  But the lack of creativity and scoring touch means that if they don't convert their one or two chances, the best they can get is a 0-0 draw.  

January 1 opens the most critical transfer window in recent history for Newcastle.  First, they must make additions to ensure they are not relegated.  More importantly though, anything less than meaningful support from owner Mike Ashley as Benitez attempts to improve the squad surely means that Rafa is gone at the end of the season regardless of Newcastle's finish.   

Man United  - You Can Only Beat Who You Play 

Despite the temptation to adjust the rating downwards based on the quality of the opposition (Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle), we cannot in good conscience award Man United anything less than five Santas.  About all you could have asked for was bigger margins of victory but even at that, they went from 0 to +11 in goal differential in these four matches.  They went from 11 points out of 4th to just six behind Chelsea.  A season reborn.  

No other 5-Santa performances but we do have some pretty happy campers.  

Leicester - 

The degree of difficulty makes us want to award that fifth Santa but we can't do that based on the 0-1 loss to Cardiff.  But how about consecutive wins over Chelsea and Man City?  Add in the 1-0 win over Everton and the Foxes added nine points to move to the top of the mid-table.  One could have easily seen them being happy with six points.

Crystal Palace - 

The Eagles surprised Man City, drew with Cardiff and beat Wolves for a seven point haul.  And they gave Chelsea a run before falling 0-1.  Still surprised to see them just six points away from the relegation zone but it could have been even closer without these points.

The grading gets harder (and more subjective) as we go through the top five sides, as expectations are a bit higher.  Like how can you give sides that took home nine points less than four Santas?  Watch me.

Liverpool - 

But, but, we had three wins, including a 5-1 thrashing of Arsenal.  Yeah, but you lost the won that really mattered to Man City 1-2.  Great match that one.

Spurs - 

But, but we got nine points.  Yeah but you lost to Wolves 1-3.  The schedule was soft enough (Everton, Bournemouth, Wolves, Cardiff) that 12 points was not unrealistic.  If our graphics department was any good, we might have given 3-1/2 Santas, recognizing that Wolves can be tricky (see below).


Man City - 

But, but they only got six points and lost to Crystal Palace and Leicester.  Surely this was two Santa stuff.  Yeah but they won the one that really mattered - Liverpool.

Arsenal - 

But, but we got seven points.  Yeah, but you got pummeled by Liverpool and only managed a draw against Brighton.  Nine points was surely doable.

Chelsea - 

But, but we got seven points.  Yeah you beat Crystal Palace and Watford but you lost to Leicester and drew 0-0 with Southampton. With those fixtures 12 points was possible and certainly more than seven could have been expected.


We already got the two bottom performers - Huddersfield and Newcastle - but we'll add one more.

Everton - 

Just three points by beating Burnley while losing to Tottenham (2-6, ouch), Brighton and Leicester.  They started the holidays just two behind Man United but now trail them by 11 and have slipped to 11th in the table.

Wolves in Wolves Clothing

Despite a rather mediocre holiday (we gave it ) Wolverhampton can play you quite tough, as Tottenham found out in the 1-3 defeat at Wembley.  Seems like they can give the top six squads fits.  Turns out I was basically right.  Looking at each team's performance against the top six sides (Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Man United), only Man City and Liverpool have collected more points than Wolves.   To reflect that fact that top six teams have fewer chances to get points against top six teams, since they don't play themselves,  I did it again calculating percentage of possible points taken from top six sides.  Even doing that, Wolves are still 4th best.  Full table below. 

	Points	Possible	Percent
Man City	13	18	72%
Liverpool	12	21	57%
Chelsea	8	15	53%
Wolves	9	21	43%
Tottenham	6	15	40%
Leicester	6	18	33%
Arsenal	5	18	28%
Crystal Palace	5	21	24%
Brighton	4	18	22%
West Ham	4	18	22%
Southampton	5	24	21%
Watford	3	18	17%
Man United	2	15	13%
Everton	1	18	6%
Burnley	0	18	0%
Fulham	0	21	0%
Cardiff	0	21	0%
Bournemouth	0	21	0%
Newcastle	0	21	0%
Huddersfield	0	21	0%

Ooh look at that, another category with Newcastle at the bottom

Odds and Ends

Ugly Christmas Sweater Goal - There were some not so pretty goals but none were uglier than this one from Southampton.  The ugly goal comes at about 23 seconds into the video.  So why wasn't this called back for offside?  All together class, because the man in the offside position never got involved in active play or interfered with the keeper.  We recommend watching the whole video to see the two brilliant goals from Felipe Anderson.

Sir, your watch is beeping.  Time has expired. Sir?

Do I Have to Do Everything Myself? - Felipe Anderson continues to be not only hot but versatile.  He already had two goals to bring West Ham back from an 0-1 deficit to Southampton (see above).  But as time ran down, he also became Assistant Timekeeper, making sure that Craig Pawson knew that time had expired (see right).  Anderson now has eight goals, equal 9th in the EPL.  No word on whether he does windows.

That Was 90 Minutes I Could Have Been Watching the Mummers - Everton and Leicester certainly did nothing to advance the cause of the EPL with that stinker.  The Leicester goal was nice enough but the game was basically a collection of poor touches and misdirected passes.  The Newcastle - Fulham 0-0 draw would have been in this category except it wasn't on New Year's Day.

It Had to Happen Sometime - Arsenal's 2-0 half time lead over Burnley was the first time this season that the Gunners went into the locker room ahead at the half.  More importantly, they actually held the lead at full time.

Prognosticators - As the announcer was suggesting that Liverpool's response to Arsenal's early goal boded well for an interesting match,  Dennis and I were thinking the opposite.  With Liverpool scoring unleashed we both agreed they would be up 4-1 at half time.  Two of us were right.  One of the more disappointing fixtures.

And Now, the FA Cup

This weekend is the third round of the FA Cup, the first round in which the top tiers participate.  You can go back to this BFS post from 2014, for a more complete explanation of the competition.  Looks like limited TV coverage at this point so you may have to check out streaming services.  This article in the Guardian provides some of the match-ups of interest.