Thursday, January 30, 2014

Cabaye bye

Well it finally happened.  Yohan Cabaye is no longer a Magpie.  And while in paragraphs below I will try to put a better face on it, the bottom line is that this is definitive proof that I have joined the Church of Perpetual Mid-table Teams.  It's pretty clear that Newcastle believes it cannot compete for Champions League spots and will make personnel decisions accordingly.  Which of course means that they will continue to lose players who want to compete in Champions League.  Sounds like a vicious cycle.

But there are signs that while the CL is out, Newcastle will not see a major drop off despite the loss of Cabaye.  Newcastle got 2.5 years of Cabaye's prime and then sold him for a profit of something north of $20 million (if I have my pounds/dollars conversion right).  Of course, much depends on what they do with the money.  So far, they have signed Luuk de Jong, a talented striker from Holland, on loan for the rest of the season with an option to buy.  A serious offer for Clement Grenier, who really could be a replacement for Cabaye was turned down because Grenier "did not want to be seen as Cabaye's replacement" according to his agent.  The Remy Cabella deal, assuming it's not dead, looks to be a summer transfer window project.  My point is that with some transfers, Newcastle might find themselves no worse off than before Cabaye left. 

But there's the rub - no worse off means we're still an 8th place team.


No Mercy-side Derby

Well that wasn't what I had in mind.  Liverpool came out and flattened Everton 4-0 at Anfield in complete contrast to the exciting match in November.  Sturridge had two and Suarez got another; they are a formidable duo but it's fun to watch one of them get mad when the other screws up.   The other high profile match - Tottenham vs Manchester City - wasn't much better.  Actually, that's not true as the first half was a high energy affair.  But a second half goal, followed by a red card to Danny Rose and the subsequent PK pretty much ruined the match, which ended 5-1 for the visitors.  The red card on Rose might be debatable but the offside call? -  please, enough.  Look at :21 on the video, just as Eriksen strikes the ball.  Adebayor is clearly in an offside position and Dawson looks like he probably is too.  But even if you give Dawson the benefit of the doubt, check out Adebayor's action as the ball comes through; how is that not interfering with the keeper? 

Newcastle's first match without Cabaye ended in a goalless draw at Norwich.  While that may seem like proof that they need Cabaye, the Magpies dominated the match, especially the first half, and had three shots hit the post.  I'm going to view this as unlucky as opposed to revealing.  Speaking of unlucky, it appears they are heading into Saturday's derby vs Sunderland without Remy (red card suspension), Gouffran (injury) and Cisse (injury). 

Arsenal and Chelsea came up with only draws versus Southampton (thought that was a tough road match for the Gunners) and West Ham.  Which means that Manchester City enters the weekend in first.  But, with Arsenal hosting Crystal Palace on Sunday, Man City will likely need a win at home against Chelsea on Monday to hold on to it.

Dennis took in the AVL-WBA match and filed this report:
The West Midland's Derby was probably the match of the week, despite the first 12 minutes (which included 3 goals!) being un-watchable on Live Extra.  West Brom got started early with a laser volley from Brunt and Delph helped out the Baggies with an own goal a few minutes later.  Weimann got the Villans back in it after a bomb from Guzan [editor's note - who leads EPL in accurate long balls per game at 8.9, second best is Everton's Jagielka at 8.4, with the next best performer at 7.0] was steered right into his path for a pretty easy chip shot.  Bacuna leveled the match by turning what should have been an easy tap in into some kind of weird, spinning lob from 3 yards out.  4 goals in 25 minutes and they were just getting warmed up.  Delph scores for the correct side with his second goal of the season and his second absolute rocket to put the Villans up 3-2.  Benteke should have put Aston Villa up 4-2 after a perfect diagonal pass and a nice cut gets him all alone vs the keeper, but he manages not to score (or maybe the keeper made a great save, hard to tell).  Moments later, Mulumbu is able to convert his 1 on 1 opportunity with Guzan to once again level the score right before the half.
At this point, I have been entertained more than during most of Aston Villa's game combined, so I am definitely happy with a tie and almost pleased with a loss and the experience.  But the back and forth continued, with West Brom's Lugano missing a free header from a few yards out in the opening moments of the second half.  Benteke eventually broke the tie with a penalty after being pulled down in a headlock in the box by the very same Lugano.  By the book, it is the kind of call that should be a penalty all of the time and is actually a penalty half the time.  Lugano continued to get his name called, when he later picked up a yellow for dissent claiming he was taken down in the box under similar circumstances as Benteke.  The key difference is that Lugano was pulled down by his jersey, which is also technically a penalty, but is rarely actually called.  Aston Villa were able to steer a relatively clear path home from there and secured a valuable and well earned 3 points.  If only the Villans could play West Brom all season - in two matches, they have gone down 2-0 within 11 minutes twice and managed to score 6 goals and take 4 of 6 points.


Sounds like that will keep Dennis happy, at least until they face what will likely be a fired up Everton side on Saturday.  Ruh-roh.

Monday, January 27, 2014

Leagues, Cups and League Cups

Some may have heard talk of Manchester City having a chance to win all four competitions this year.  Some may be saying to themselves, what four competitions?  In baseball, you play the regular season to make the playoffs and win the World Series - simple to follow, there's just the one "competition."  Once again, English football is more complicated and may require some additional explanation for the more casual follower.  I shall now attempt to provide that additional explanation.

The primary competition is the English Premier League, or if you're into sponsorship the Barclay's Premier League.  The twenty EPL teams play each other twice - home and away; a team gets three points for a win, one for a draw.  The team with the most points wins the league. We might be tempted to call it the regular season but the comparison isn't particularly apt; even though teams can qualify for additional competitions based on how they finish in the league, this is really the main event.

Some people eat salad at the beginning of a meal, others at the end.  In English football, they eat it throughout the meal.  And many different kinds of salad too.  Interwoven around league play are other competitions that resemble what we would call playoffs or tournaments. There's the FA Cup, which I've written about in detail before here.  That runs from August to May.

Then there's the Football League Cup, also known as the Capital One Cup - at least until someone outbids Capital One for the naming rights.  This competition is limited to the 92 teams in the top four divisions of English football (Premier, Championship, League One and League Two).  It runs from August to March, again squeezed in around regular league play.  This is mostly a one and done knockout tournament except for the semi-finals, which are two-match aggregate score advances affairs.  As far as I can tell, this competition gets even less respect than the FA Cup.  The finalists are set for this year's cup - Manchester City will face Sunderland (yes, the Sunderland that currently sits at the bottom of the table) at Wembley Stadium on Sunday March 2nd.

Lastly we have the Champions League and its ugly step sister, the Europa League.  These would be the closest cousin to American playoffs but with a twist; the playoffs aren't between teams in your own league but are playoffs between the top teams of all the European football leagues.  The top four finishers in the EPL go up against squads from Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Russia, etc.  Forget about the format details - it's more complicated than the FA Cup.  Basically, there are qualifying rounds that get you to the 32 team group stage.  Teams are divided into groups of four and play each team in the group twice.  The top finishers in the group stage go onto the knockout phase, which is a two-match aggregate score format (you play a team twice, once at home, once away and the aggregate score of the two matches determines which team advances).  This competition runs from July to May, altogether now, squeezed in between league play.  But for this competition, that timing creates an interesting issue.  You qualified based on last season's results but you play the matches this season.  Your squad could be radically different, possibly a much weaker team compared to last season but you qualified so you play.

The Europa League is basically the same format as the Champions League but is more of a consolation competition - think the old NIT compared to the NCAA basketball tournament.  The fifth place team from the EPL, last year's FA Cup winner and last year's Football League Cup winner qualify for this competition.  Oh, and here's another twist.  Teams that don't advance at various phases of the Champions League can get dumped into the Europa League.  This competition also runs from July to May.

Once again, probably clear as mud, and I left out some of the exceptions/details.  Plus now I forget why I started down this road...oh yeah, because right now, Manchester City still have a chance to win all four competitions.  They are already in the League Cup finals. They have advanced to the fifth round of the FA Cup. They are in the final 16 of the Champions League (though they have a tough draw in Barcelona).  And, they trail Arsenal by just one point in the EPL.  As far as I can tell, no team has ever won all four competitions.  In 1998-99 Manchester United won the league, the FA Cup and the Champions League.  Liverpool won three in 1984 - the league, the Football League Cup and the Champions League (called European Cup back then).


Harriers Lose But Do Themselves Proud

The Kidderminster Harriers (apparently referring to a type of bird as opposed to cross country runners) fell to Sunderland 1-0.  They gave up an early goal and looked in danger of being blown out.  But they stayed tough, or maybe Sunderland isn't all that good, and that was all of the scoring.  Kidderminster had a good scoring chance late but it went just wide.  After the match, the players and manager saluted the 4,000 or so fans that had made the trip to Sunderland.

I saw one other FA Cup match - Bournemouth vs Liverpool.  The underdog home squad matched the EPL team in just about every area except one - finishing.  Liverpool converted their best chances and advanced with a 2-0 win.  Two EPL clubs bowed out of the FA Cup this weekend - Stoke City and Crystal Palace - plus Fulham drew Sheffield United and will face a replay.  A bunch of others advanced, including Man City, Chelsea, Everton and Arsenal.



Chester Blues Progressing

Played a lot of games this week - that happens when I'm dealing with contract matters and "free agent" signings because I have to let time run to find out if the offers are accepted.  We did lose on the road to Bristol on a late goal but rebounded with three wins against lower table teams.  With our leading scorer (Terry Read - made up by the game) down, the number three striker (Luke Freeman - also made up by the game) came up with 8 goals in 5 games.  Our leads over the 2nd and 3rd place teams are 11 and 15 points respectively.  We're in early March in cyber time and with 7 matches to go, we need just six more points to clinch promotion to the Premier League.  I spent the week signing some of our key players to longer contracts - including Gylfi Sigurdsson, who probably has been the second most valuable player on the squad.  I also made a bid for Michael Parkhurst - who in real life may get some time with the USMNT - but I fear that even though I went to the max that my board would allow, we going to lose out to a team from the Bundesliga.


EPL Preview

Mid-week matches on Tuesday and Wednesday.  One is a derby with Champions League implications - Liverpool vs Everton.  Another is a derby with relegation implications - Aston Villa hosting West Brom.  Newcastle is on the road to Norwich - looking for a draw there.  Chelsea and Arsenal should be favored in their matches versus West Ham and Southampton, though Arsenal should be careful on the road.  Manchester United will also likely be favored at Old Trafford against Cardiff City.  The week concludes with a tasty fixture - Tottenham vs Manchester City at White Hart Lane.

Teams will have to turn around quickly for weekend matches.  Newcastle hosts Sunderland for a Tyneside derby (anything less than a win here will be a disappointment), Aston Villa has a tough road match versus Everton, and Tottenham has a winnable match on the road at Hull City.  Other matches include Man Utd at Stoke, Liverpool at West Brom and Arsenal hosting Crystal Palace; all look like wins for the top table teams.  And the week concludes with clash of league title contenders Man City and Chelsea at Etihad Stadium.

By this time next Monday, several teams may have changed places in the table.  But I bet Newcastle will still be 8th.






Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Hot Stove League - MLS Version

Though the term has baseball origins, it is equally applicable for the MLS - fans anxiously awaiting the upcoming season, gathering around the "hot stove" discussing their squad's chances.  In recent weeks, we've seen Toronto sign Michael Bradley and Jermain Defoe, the MLS super draft, and the Union either being close or not being close to signing Maurice Edu.

I realize that many American soccer fans look down on/ignore the MLS.  And I get that it's not EPL, Serie A, La Liga, or the Bundesliga; realistically, most MLS squads would likely find themselves in the 2nd or 3rd divisions of English football.  However, bemoaning the fact that it's not first division football seems shortsighted.  Unless you regularly commute to Europe, the MLS is the only soccer you can see in person.  If we don't support the MLS, it's not going to get better and maybe it ends up going away.  But beyond that, think about a place like London.  No shortage of first division soccer in that city.  Yet, the last home match for Leyton Orient, a third division team also located in London, drew over 5,000 fans.  My point is that we shouldn't be hung up on whether we're being treated to first division soccer, we should be focused on how our team is doing in the context of the league that it does play in.

All that being said, I'm not opposed to the MLS improving the quality of the teams.  That's why I was interested in recent signings of Michael Bradley and Jermain Defoe.  Bradley, who's been a key player for the USMNT, was most recently with Roma, in Serie A, the top Italian division.  Some have questioned why a young (26 years old) US player would want to come back to the MLS when he could be playing in Europe.   Except that he wasn't playing regularly for Roma.  So maybe the prospect of more playing time was the draw.  Whatever the reason, I would think he goes right to being one of the top players in the league.  Defoe is a striker for Tottenham who wears his pants higher than a senior citizen in Florida and who always seems to be a spark plug when brought on as a sub.   On the other hand, I see that his average rating was near the bottom of the EPL and he is 31 years old.  This transfer makes some sense - an aging player who can probably raise the level of play for an MLS team.

Last week was also the MLS Super Draft.  I'll leave the more detailed analysis of who did better or worse to others (see MLS Superdraft Analysis.)  The big story here in Philly was the Union trading up to get Connecticut keeper Andre Blake.  The story seems to be that Blake was the best player available in the draft, so Philadelphia picked him despite having a young keeper of their own.  The blog's resident keeper expert Chris K. believes this was an excellent choice.  I also read that Ribeiro (midfielder) and Cope (defender) may be good enough to log significant minutes this season.  And we may be getting Maurice Edu, a midfielder who is on the Stoke roster but hasn't seen the pitch yet this season.  The hold up there may be about money, but as one pundit has pointed out, how do you let one team (Toronto) overpay for talent but not allow another to do so.

With Jeff Parke gone and Carlos Valdez unlikely to return, the Union's list of central defenders seems, ahem, incomplete at this point.  I would think they'll need to resolve that or it won't matter whether it's MacMath or Blake in goal.  Opening day is less than 2 months away.  Right now, it's hard to see that the team is better than the one that missed the playoffs last year.


Good Results


A good weekend for Newcastle and Aston Villa. 

Hard to image a 2-2 draw versus Liverpool at Anfield could be disappointing for Aston Villa but the way the match unfolded, there was a sense of what could have been.  The Villans were playing well and the 1-0 lead they took on Weimann's toe poke from a great cross by Agbonlahor was no less than they deserved.  Benteke's goal at 36 minutes wasn't quite as pretty but was still with the run of  play.  Thoughts of three points danced in their heads but Sturridge raised doubts, slipping a shot past Guzan in first half stoppage time.  A soft call on Guzan's contact with Suarez in the box (he made a meal of it - check it out in this week's Youtubeable Moment) led to Gerrard's PK to even the score.  Other than Suarez narrowly missing a free kick, I don't recall dramatic scoring chances in the last 30 minutes.  A big point for Aston Villa and two points Liverpool really couldn't afford to drop.
  
In Football Manager one of the options for postgame pep talk is something along the lines of "good result but our play in the second half was unacceptable."  If I'm Alan Pardew, that's the message I would have left with the team despite the 3-1 win over West Ham.  Newcastle did their usual goofing around for the first 10-15 minutes looking awful and letting West Ham control things.  A nice strike by Cabaye put the Magpies up at 15 minutes.  The Magpies continued to dominate and Remy doubled the lead at 33 minutes off a nice cross from Sissoko.  But just to make things interesting, Newcastle allowed an own goal in first half stoppage time to give West Ham hope.  And boy did the Hammers try to build on that.  They had Newcastle on the back foot for most of the second half; if not for the botched, practically open net misses by this week's co-Tin Boot Award winners Carlton Cole and Andy Carroll, West Ham would have taken away a 3-2 win.  But there was to be no equalizer and Cabaye's well-taken free kick late in stoppage time made the game look much less close than it really was.  But, it is three points and Newcastle solidifies their stranglehold on 8th place.

The marquee match was a bit of a disappointment.  First, E'too's Eto'os' E'too's's Eto'o's hat trick pretty much eliminated any chance for a competitive match.  Man Utd came out strong and had the run of play for 15 minutes or so but got nothing to show for it.  Eto'o scored at 17 minutes, then again in first half stoppage time and then once more just four minutes into the second half and a semi-rout was on.  Second, with the pitch populated with recidivist floppers like Oscar, Ramires and Janusaz, we had high hopes for the blog's signature event, a booking for simulation.  In fact, once the score was out of hand, this was about all we had left to look forward to but none were forthcoming.  Chelsea keeps pace with Arsenal and Man City and Mourinho now has 71 consecutive matches at Stamford Bridge without a loss.

As expected Arsenal and Man City got their three points in wins over Fulham (2-0) and Cardiff City (4-2).  What I saw of Arsenal looked like a case of "quality will out."  Though they had nothing to show for playing well, the Gunners didn't panic and eventually Santiago Cazorla put Arsenal up with a nice strike in the 57th minute.  He added another just five minutes later to effectively seal the win.  I didn't see Man City match but it looks like Cardiff did not roll over and play dead.  The match was still 2-1 until Man City posted goals in the 76th and 79th minute to put the match out of reach.

Tottenham looked sharp in a 3-1 win over reeling Swansea City. Emmanuel Adebayor netted two more and has been a force since being reinstated to the lineup under new manager Tim Sherwood.  But don't overlook the contributions of Christian Eriksen.  It was his quality cross that led to the first goal and he seemed to spark the Spurs attack.  The win moved Tottenham into 5th place; they're tied with Liverpool on points but trail in goal differential by a staggering 22 - better plan on beating them outright as opposed to tiebreakers.

The 4th spot could have been Everton's but they could only muster a draw on the road against West Brom.  Tim Howard looked frozen on the Baggies equalizer and I noticed in the replay that he collected the ball out of the goal, then banged it against his head several times, suggesting that Howard agrees with me.

The Sunderland-Southampton match was highly entertaining regardless of their relative positions in the table - or maybe because of it.  Sunderland found themselves down 2-0 by the 31st minute and it was very dark at the Stadium of Light.  Then Borini (Newcastle slayer) scored to start the comeback.   Adam Johnson scored the tying goal in the 71st minute.  Though Sunderland continued to press the issue, they had to be satisfied with the comeback draw.  And that point was crucial, moving them into a 3-way tie for last place (19th after taking goal differential into account).

So after 22 games, a little more than half the season, we have three teams vying for the top spot, another three (four if you count Man United) still with a real shot at the last Champions League spot, three in the middle with maybe a slight chance at making the Europa Cup, and 11, yes 11, that are legitimately in a relegation fight.  Only six points separate Aston Villa in 10th and the teams at the bottom.  And with all these tight races at the top and bottom, what happens next?  Why, we break for fourth round action in the FA Cup.

You may recall some of our favorites are already gone (yeah I'm looking at you Newcastle, Aston Villa, Tottenham, and Man Utd) but other EPL sides will be in action this weekend.  My focus will be on...wait there are matches before this weekend?  What, oh yeah, the League Cup.  Wait, what's the League Cup you ask?  That's a separate competition that I'll have to explain later, except to say that I think it gets less respect than the FA Cup.  But there are four teams left in that - West Ham, Sunderland, Man City and Man United - which of these is not like the other three?  Anyway, they wrap up their semi-finals this week.  Now can we move on the FA Cup?

As I was saying, on Saturday my focus will be on the Stadium of Light, where the 5th division Kidderminster Harriers will take on Sunderland, who I hope will be a little tired from their League Cup semi-final on Wednesday.  Also have some hopes for Rochdale and Port Vale as they have some Chester Blues players on their rosters.  League play will pick up again mid-week.


Friday, January 17, 2014

Harriers Yes, Silkmen and Tractor Boys No

A quick look at FA Cup Third Round Replay results. One of the two Conference National teams has advanced.  Kidderminster (The Harriers - hey I thought harriers were cross country runners not footballers) beat Peterborough to move onto the Fourth Round.  The other, Macclesfield Town (The Silkmen), didn't make it, losing to Sheffield Wednesday (Wednesday being part of the team name, the match was held on Tuesday).  Ipswich (the Tractor Boys) also lost.  Hey how'd that replay work out for Blackburn?  Ooh, just as I feared.  The Rovers went down 5-0 to Man City at Etihad Stadium. Oh, and Sergio Aguero is back from injury to revive Man City's flagging (right) offense. Note to Arsenal fans, that's not just your shadow close behind you.

Kidderminster has drawn Sunderland for the fourth round so we have a 5th division squad taking on an EPL side, albeit a bad one.  Maybe Sunderland will rest some starters or be overconfident for the match and the Harriers make it to the sweet sixteen except that as far as I can tell, they don't use any descriptors like that for the FA Cup.


It's Always About the Hair

In this week's Men In Blazers podcast on Grantland, they suggested that Jennifer Lawrence's hair at the Golden Globes was a replica of an earlier Fernando Torres do.  Checking that out on Google now and we can see th- holy similitude Batman, it's a dead ringer.



Lawrence got another Golden Globe but Fernando does have four more goals than Jennifer this season.

Next week - planning a post on latest developments in what's been an active few weeks in the MLS off-season.