Ten Lords A-Leaping

Ten more matches down this weekend with ten more to go on New Year's Day to complete the "Twelve Days of Football."

For my money the two best matches were draws between teams at the bottom of the table.  Nothing like the fear of relegation, even in December, to ramp up the intensity, as teams in this situation know that every point is dear.  Imagine if in today's Giants-Redskins NFL game, the loser would be demoted to the Canadian Football League.  That's the situation teams at the bottom of the table are trying to avoid later in the season; get some points in these matches and maybe they won't be staring relegation in the face at the end of the season.

We start with the see-saw affair at Boleyn Ground, where West Ham and West Bromwich played to a 3-3 draw.  West Ham scored early but the Baggies scored twice before the break to take a 2-1 lead into the second half.  We were treated to three goals between the 65th and 69th minutes, as West Ham scored twice in succession only to give up the lead on a goal by Berahino.  A frenetic finish but no further scoring and both took away a point.

The script was a little different at Cardiff City.  The fans have been none too happy with owner Vincent Tan, and he added to their displeasure on Saturday by sacking fan favorite Malky Mackay, the manager who had brought the team back to the first division for the first time in over 50 years.  Still, it was looking like a promising weekend as Cardiff took a 2-0 lead into the late stages of their match with Sunderland.  Except then Fletcher scored in the 83rd minute and Colback ricocheted a ball past the keeper in the 95th minute, likely seconds before the referee was going to blow the final whistle.  Um, that's not going to help the fans forget all the off-field turmoil.  Colback's goal is the weekend's YouTubeable Moment, except that right now the only place I can find it is on the NBCSN highlights page, which doesn't do the moment justice (you miss the announcers and Sunderland fans going nuts and the Cardiff fans sinking in their seats and all the drama).  Maybe check again in a few days.

Not too pretty an outing for Newcastle.  They looked tentative and couldn't seem to put a pass anywhere close to where it needed to be.  Aside from a set piece at 45 minutes and some extended pressure in the last 10 minutes when Arsenal were bunkered in to protect the lead, the Magpies generated precious little offense.  Even the insertion of Ben Arfa failed to spark the attack.  Giroud's goal was definitely on the soft side (he barely touched it) but the Gunners deserved the 1-0 win and all the points.  The Newcastle game plan looked quite conservative, like they were playing for a tie.  I get that sometimes it's a wise  move but not sure this was the right strategy today.  Wenger didn't seem too anxious to open up either.  Frankly, a bit of a drab match given the quality of the sides. The good news is that Newcastle have a bad day and lose to Arsenal only because Giroud uses product to poof up his hair in the front.

Aston Villa fared somewhat better, drawing 1-1 at home versus Swansea City.  Weimann sprung Agbonlahor on a beautiful pass to put the Villans up 1-0 early.  Swansea should have been level after the 20th minute when Ben Davies had a free header and somehow managed to send it hard enough into the ground to bounce over the bar. But Roland Lamah (another Belgian international!) tied the match up in the 36th minute.  I recall Swansea having the run of the play for the rest of the match but neither team really did all that much.  An important point for Aston Villa though.

The Manchester squads both put away weaker opposition, though not necessarily in convincing fashion, posting 1-0 wins.  United took Norwich and they continued their march up the table (now 6th).  City bested Crystal Palace and now sit in second behind Arsenal.  To paraphrase a succinct movie review Dennis once did, the Chelsea -Liverpool match was great until it started to suck.  The first half was a wonderful, free flowing game probably because Liverpool opened the scoring quickly on a goal by Skertl.  Chelsea was forced to open up and open up they did.  Though it was a lucky carom to his feet, there was nothing lucky about Hazard's strike to tie the match up.  Eto'o's poke past Mignolet at 36 minutes proved to be the game winner.  The second half seemed choppy and chippy but in the end Mourinho got through his 70th consecutive game at Stamford Bridge without a loss.  Did not see either Everton's 2-1 win over Southampton or Tottenham's 3-0 win over Stoke City.  The wins moved Everton into 4th and Tottenham into 7th (tied with Man United).  And what the fu...lham is happening to the Cottagers?  They went down to Hull City 6-0 (a bad score in tennis or soccer) and now sit in 18th place, just two points ahead of last place Sunderland.  Fulham hasn't been in a relegation battle since 2007-08 but looks like they're in for one now.

Ten more games on New Year's Day. Top match looks to be Man Utd - Tot at 12:30.

Boxing Day

Not going to trust my memory for 20 matches over five days so I'll post about Boxing Day now while it's "fresh."

Several Christmas traditions were in evidence in the matches.  First, many cards were "exchanged" as referees showed 26 yellows and four reds, including two to Stoke players (more on that below).  Second, there was consideration for those less fortunate; all three bottom clubs were "treated" to wins on the road. And several keepers were seen giving "gifts" to attackers as I can recall at least three soft goals surrendered during the day.

For those who didn't see it, the Newcastle match looks like a 5-1 thrashing of Stoke City.  It is a win and I won't say the Magpies didn't deserve it but game details may leave you with a different impression.  Through 30 minutes Stoke City was dominating possession, had a 1-0 lead and looked "good for their money."  Then Whelan picked up a silly yellow card for some sort of extracurricular activities following a confrontation with Cabaye.  He followed that a few minutes later with an ill-advised challenge from behind, again on Cabaye, to earn a second yellow and then a red.  Shortly thereafter, Wilson pulled Remy down in the box for a straight red, leaving Stoke with just nine players.  Though Remy missed the PK, Stoke's fate was effectively sealed.  Remy scored before the half and the second half was completely one-sided.  Several of the Newcastle goals were actually quite good even given their two-man advantage.  Some may claim that Martin Atkinson imposed himself on the match.  I thought maybe the second yellow on Whelan was a little soft but if you already have a yellow, you shouldn't be kicking at the back of somebody's legs; I thought the other two critical calls were correct.  So it was a weird win and the match might have played out differently if not for the cards but that's not Newcastle's fault.  They deserved the win.

The less said of Aston Villa's 0-1 home loss to Crystal Palace, the better.  I did not see the match but was following the score while watching another contest.  As the score remained 0-0 throughout the match, I kept thinking a draw at home against CP is simply not good enough.  When Gayle's goal in the 92nd minute was posted, the realization that the Villans weren't even going to get one point sank in.  For the second straight match, Benteke wasn't named to the squad as he has a knee problem and traveled to Belgium to have it examined; he'll be out Saturday and Wednesday as well.  This feels so much like Newcastle's season last year.  Dennis may add some pithy quotes as he endured the whole match so we wouldn't have to.  At least he hasn't burned the AV scarf I gave him for Christmas.  Yet.


Some of the big boys fell behind early but rallied to take important wins.  Man Utd was down 2-0 to Hull before kicking it in gear for a 3-2 win.  Sure the winning tally was an own goal but frankly the Red Devils pressure forced the error; they continue to creep back up the table and now sit in 7th, even with Van Persie out due to injury.  And Rooney is grudgingly awarded the YouTubeableMoment for his goal that tied the score at 2-2.


Arsenal were down a goal to West Ham through 67 minutes but then Walcott tallied twice in 4 minutes and Podolski celebrated his return with another to seal it for the Gunners.  Surely it is an embarrassment of riches when a player like Ramsey goes out with a muscle strain only to be replaced by someone of the likes of Podolski.  The win put Arsenal back in first.  And at Etihad Stadium, goals by Kompany and Negredo wiped out the early 1-0 lead Liverpool had staked on Coutinho's tally in the 25th minute.  Thought (hoped?)this contest would be high scoring but even at 2-1, it was a high tempo, entertaining match.  The win put Man City into 2nd place, who so far are surviving the loss the Aguero (calf - out for 6-8 weeks).  Expect to read about fines for Brendan Rodgers, who openly expressed dissatisfaction with the refereeing, most notably about a phantom offsides call that probably took away a goal from Sterling (I saw the play, he looked clearly onsides to me - not even close to being level with the defender).







Chelsea beat Swansea 1-0 on sweet play by Eden Hazard and Everton lost to Sunderland 1-0 on a PK (the result of a straight red card foul by keeper Tim Howard).  Chelsea stays right on the heels of Arsenal and Man City while the Toffees loss, completely unexpected at home against one of the weaker clubs, will hurt but they remain in the hunt for a Champions League spot.   You'd have to say Tottenham gave away two points in the lackluster 1-1 draw against West Brom.  The Boxing Day action left them in 8th place, five points out of 4th and two points out of 6th.  They will have to do better if they want to see action in Europe next year.  

Hope you used your day off from EPL wisely.

The Twelve Days of Football

Geez, what's a guy have to do to see some football these days?  Uh, turn on the TV?  And here at 6911, we don't even have anything besides NBCSN and FoxSports.  If we had BeIN Sport or FoxSoccerPlus odds are nothing would get done around here.  As it is, with games on Boxing Day and New Year's Day, each EPL team has four matches in 12 days.  With proper viewing techniques and etiquette, you can see a lot of them without seeing the scores from other games, though you have to be willing to watch many on-line as opposed to TV.  Also important is not giving away scores in conversation.  The appropriate opening to a soccer fan is not "Can you believe x beat y?" but rather "Are you up-to-date with [insert appropriate league here] scores?" or more succinctly "Are you current?"  That way you don't give away anything by launching into a breathless retelling of a match to someone who was looking forward to watching it on DVR later. 

 

Many happy partisans after this weekend's matches, though Dennis is not among them.   Did not see Aston Villa's 2-1 loss at Stoke City myself but Dennis was not impressed with the effort.  Agbonlahor was serving a one-game suspension for accumulated yellow cards and Benteke (goalless since September) wasn't even named to the squad.  However, they did manage to score.  Unfortunately, the Villans gave up the game-winner just four minutes after Kozak had tied the score.  With the loss, Aston Villa dropped behind both Stoke City and Hull in the standings.  Fortunately the schedule looks a bit easier in the near term.

 

Newcastle performed just like you'd want a top table team to against Crystal Palace.  Even though they were away from St. James Park, the Magpies pretty much dominated in the 3-0 win.  Sure, there was an own goal, Cabaye's goal was a deflection, and the PK might have been a little soft; and Jerome missed a wide open shot that would have made the score 2-1 with plenty of time left.  But this looked like Newcastle's match pretty much from the get-go.  Ben Arfa continues to spark the team with his late appearances just when the offense seems to be flagging.  They ended the weekend in 6th, ahead of Tottenham on goal differential.

 

And what about those Spurs?  Shrugging off a disappointing midweek league cup loss to West Ham, Tottenham took all three points from Southampton in a see-saw affair at Saint Mary's Stadium.  Interim (now permanent, at least for 18 months) manager Tim Sherwood restored Adebayor to the starting 11 and saw the tall Togolese net a goal against West Ham and two against Southampton.  The first on Sunday was a difficult volley off a great cross from Soldado and the second, at 64 minutes, proved to be the game winner.  We'll see if this is a trend or just the new manager bounce but Spurs fans had to be encouraged by what they saw.

 

We awaited the Arsenal-Chelsea match with much anticipation, perhaps too much.  A tactical 0-0 draw has its place I suppose but the tempo seemed quite slow.  I put the blame on Chelsea (or as the Gunners fans chanted near the end "Boring Chelsea") but maybe Mourinho believed all he really had to do was not lose.  Each team had some clear chances but not that many.  Arsenal was a little undermanned with Koscielny (gashed knee) and Wilshere (suspension) both out but Vermaelen (Belgian international!) seemed fine on the back line.

 

In other key matches Suarez could only manage two goals and an assist in Liverpool's 3-1 win over Cardiff City.  His second goal is this week's YouTubeable moment, half because of Suarez' Suarez's the powerful curling shot by Suarez and half because of the deft back heel pass by Henderson that set up the shot.  Coupled with Arsenal's draw on Monday, Liverpool now find themselves at the top of the table, ahead of the Gunners on goal differential.  Man City (4-2 over staggering Fulham) and Man Utd (2-0 over West Ham) both took away three points from the weekend's matches.  Everton got a late goal from Barkley to steal a 2-1 win on the road from Swansea in a highly entertaining match. 

 

So now we have five teams within two points of the top, Man Utd surging, Tottenham possibly back in form, and Newcastle making noises about the using January transfer window to prepare for a run at the top four (where have I heard that before?).  And three matches for everybody between now and New Year's Day.

 

The best of Boxing Day matches looks to be Man City hosting Liverpool.  Let's hope the two highest scoring teams in the league don't go all tactical on us (I believe the expression is "park the bus") just because first place is on the line.  Aston Villa hosts Crystal Palace; the Villans must get a result here.  Newcastle sees Stoke City at St. James Park; both teams are in good form so looking for an interesting match here - I could live with a draw.  Most at the top have easier fixtures - Man Utd at Hull City (or Hull Tigers, or whatever they are going to be called), Arsenal at West Ham, Tottenham at home versus West Brom and Everton has Sunderland at home; Chelsea probably needs to be careful against Swansea City but the match is at Stamford Bridge, where Mourinho hasn't lost in 68 games, if I have that right.

 

The weekend games have some important match ups as well.  Chelsea hosts Liverpool on Sunday at 11, right after a suddenly meaningful contest between Newcastle and Arsenal at St. James Park at 8:30.  Winnable but by no means easy home matches are on the docket for Tottenham (Stoke City) and Everton (Southampton).  The Manchester sides both have more favorable fixtures with City home versus Crystal Palace and United on the road to Norwich.  Aston Villa faces a tougher test in Swansea.  Some points in these next two matches would make their live much easier.

 

And the Chester Blues posted another solid 2-1 result, this time over Sheffield United.  Four matches to go in our tough early February schedule.  We remain atop the Championship Division based on goal differential with a game in hand.

 

 (Originally posted 12/23/13)

Dubious Goals Panel

Luis Suarez is so hot he scored this week even when he wasn't playing.  That is thanks to a decision by the Dubious Goals Panel, an anonymous group of players, referees, managers who review the video to determine who actually scored a particular goal.  It seems most of the work is on own goals, as in, should the attacking player who struck the ball get credit even if it went off a defending player.  A Premier League spokesman outlined the basic guidelines for this situation: 

"As a rule, if the initial attempt is goalbound it is credited to the player making the goal attempt. However if the deflection means that a wayward effort results in a goal then it is attributed to the player who had the last definitive touch of the ball."  So the committee met recently and decided that Liverpool's fourth goal against West Ham on December 7th (a date which will live in infamy) was not an own goal but rightly belonged Suarez.  No, I did not make this up.

 

And it's not like Suarez needs help in this regard.  Michael B can tell you all about it after watching him (Suarez, not Michael) tally two in Liverpool's 5-0 romp over Tottenham.  The Spurs struggled against Liverpool's high powered attack and simply could not generate any sustained offensive pressure of their own.  Liverpool were already up 2-0 when Paulinho got a straight red in the 63rd minute for a boot to the chest of Suarez.  Things just got out of hand for the Spurs after that.  And this was without Gerrard and Sturridge - yikes.

 

Not a good weekend for the North London squads as Arsenal were also thumped, 6-3 by Man City.  At least it was a bit more competitive, as the Gunners came back to tie at 1-1 and also made the game interesting with a goal in the 63rd minute to close the gap to 3-2.  But three straight after that by Man City put the game out of reach.  Aside from the loss, the match may have repercussions for Arsenal's upcoming contest with Chelsea.  First, center back Laurent Koscielny left early with a gashed knee; he has not been ruled out for Monday but apparently the gash was pretty bad.  Midfielder Jack Wilshire has likely earned a one-game suspension for his one-fingered gesture to fans during Saturday's match.  Arsenal, which was six minutes from a seven point lead last week, now finds itself just two ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea and only three ahead of Man City.

 

Last week I expressed concern about Newcastle's match with Southampton.  I'm okay with the 1-1 draw, though I really shouldn't be.  First, the match was at Saint James Park.  Second, the Magpies missed some glorious opportunities to score, including a turnover by the Southampton keeper that Remy should have buried.  Satisfaction with just the one point may be part of the hangover from last year's relegation struggle, during which every point was golden.  This year, with the club challenging for a Europa Cup spot, anything less than a home win isn't really good enough.  This week's YouTubeable Moment comes from this match.  Check out the late action when Sissoko, meaning to push away the Southampton keeper's hand, accidently strikes referee Michael Jones in the nose, possibly breaking it.  He didn't not appear to be faking it, as he went down quickly and there was blood.  Several players did signal for Jones to get up and stop embellishing the foul.  Okay that last part I did make up.

 

 Aston Villa continues to test Dennis's fledging commitment with a second straight lackluster performance, this time versus Man Utd.  Benteke is mired in a serious slump and the Villans don't seem to have a good first touch (or second touch for that matter).  The 3-0 defeat didn’t cost them in the standings this week but there are four teams within two points so they could quickly find themselves in 15^th place and worrying about relegation.  Frankly, they seem too good a squad but that’s what everybody said about Newcastle last year and it came down to the next-to-last weekend before they were out of the woods.  The win jumped Man Utd up to 8^th in the table.

 

In other matches of note Chelsea managed a workmanlike 2-1 win over Crystal Palace while Everton flattened Fulham 4-1.  Chelsea is tied with Liverpool on points but sit in 3^rd place because of a poorer goal differential while Everton sits just outside of Champions League territory, one point behind Man City.

 

We did make it down to PPL Park to see Maryland take on Notre Dame for the NCAA soccer title.  Multiple layers and hot chocolate made the conditions tolerable.  Unbeknownst to me, I purchased tickets in the heart of the Fighting Irish cheering section.  Fortunately we were generally neutral, interested more in seeing a competitive match, though Laura and I had mild preference for the Terps for historical reasons.  We did see a close contest.  Maryland generated continuous pressure down the left wing that resulted in multiple corner kicks.  Finally, Maryland broke through on a play that may not have been the referee’s finest moment.  A Maryland shot appeared to us to be stopped by the raised elbow of a Notre Dame defender on the goal line; the rebound went to another Maryland attacker, who used his hand to settle the ball and fire in the opening score.  Equal justice, especially since Maryland scored anyway?  Not really; the Notre Dame defender should have been red carded for his offense, which meant the Fighting Irish would have played the rest of the match a man down.  But neither offense was called and the score was 1-0.  Notre Dame tied the match late in the first half with a goal from close range.  In the second half, Maryland seemed to move the ball around aimlessly with no organized attack while Notre Dame created the better chances.  They got the eventual game winner on an excellent header off a free kick.  We agreed that the 2-1 result reflected the run of play, though one wonders how things would have turned out if the handling offense had been called.

 

And the computerized Chester Blues were back in action, taking a very satisfying 2-1 win from Leicester on the road.  We now sit atop the Championship Division, tied with Blackburn but ahead on goal differential and we have played one less game.  The January transfer window is closed and all we could do was add two possible prospects.  We lost out on a quality Irish striker when Burnley offered twice the salary we could.  Damn big money teams.

 

Highlight of this week’s action is clearly Monday afternoon’s contest between Arsenal and Chelsea at the Emirates.  A win for the Blues would move them into first.  Second place Liverpool has Cardiff City at home so it’s likely that even an Arsenal win will only leave them with a two point cushion.  Newcastle is on the road at Crystal Palace; though I would hope for three points against a relegation candidate, Crystal Palace does have three wins and draw in eight contests at home.  Tottenham hopes to regroup under their new manager but a road contest versus Southampton does not sound like the place to get healthy as the Saints have four wins and three draws in eight games at home.  Man Utd should continue to get better as they host West Ham.  Everton will need to be careful as they travel to Swansea City.  And Aston Villa has a tough match at Stoke City, who have only lost once at home; the good news is that the Villans have only lost twice on the road.  A draw might be a good result for Aston Villa.

Never Enough

Since last Sunday we've seen 32 teams grouped in the World Cup draw, 20 EPL games, four NCAA finalists determined and two teams battle for the MLS Cup Final.  And a partridge in a pear tree.

Start with the MLS Cup, where Sporting KC emerged with the hardware, beating Real Salt Lake 7-6 on PKs after playing to a 1-1 draw in regulation plus 30 minutes of overtime.  I am not a big fan of using PKs to determine a winner.  I realize it's quite dramatic and all but imagine if after two overtime periods, the NBA settled its championship by putting five players from each time on the foul line for one free throw each. Not tremendously satisfying in my book.  Which is fine because I missed the PKs anyway.  In what surely must be labeled a rookie mistake, I failed to take into account the possibility of overtime, did not dvr the show after the MLS Cup and therefore only saw some of the overtime action.  It was a sweet moment for the KC captain and keeper Jimmy Nielsen, who could be the John Kruk of MLS in that he's very talented but well, doesn't look like a soccer player.  And another year without a trophy for us long-suffering Union fans.

I already commented on the World Cup draw - nothing new to add at this point.  The NCAA final four is set with Maryland, New Mexico, Notre Dame and Virginia.  The semis and the finals will be played this Friday and Sunday at PPL Park.  Hoping to get there for Sunday's match.  Also hoping the weather is a little more soccer-friendly than yesterday.

All EPL teams had a mid-week match plus a weekend contest.  Certain themes struck me.  Tottenham did indeed get six points in two matches versus relegation candidates.  They did it in somewhat underwhelming fashion, falling behind early than rallying late.  On the other hand, they did seem to be creating more chances and they have seven points out of the last nine possible.  AVB decided to take on the press a little; that usually doesn't end well for the manager since he typically doesn't have a regular column or other media access.  Side note - one of his detractors - Neil Ashton - was captain of my first Chester Blues side when we were in the 5th division.  Liverpool also came away with six points against teams in the bottom half (Norwich and West Ham) but did it in somewhat more convincing fashion to stay five points back of Arsenal.

Aston Villa and Newcastle played a sort of Dr. Jekyl/Mr Hyde in their respective matches; each posted one quality outing and one performance worthy of a relegation candidate.  Aston Villa put up a gritty effort away at Southampton, taking an early lead, then twice tallying go-ahead goals after the Saints equalized.  Sunday however, they looked ready to accept the alternative tag put on them by Men in Blazers - the Midlands Mediocrity - as they appeared punchless against a Fulham side that hadn't won since before Obama became a two-term president.  Newcastle had their forgettable performance on Wednesday, losing 3-0 to Swansea City.  Tell me Jonjo Shelvey is not the evil spawn of Ernst Stavro Blofeld (see pictures below).  Saturday was much better as a goal in the 60th minute by Cabaye was the only scoring in a 1-0 win at Old Trafford.  Frankly, they looked the better side for most of the match.  Good to see Hatem Ben Arfa back on the pitch; the Magpies seemed much more dangerous with him out there.  Some post-game comments from Alan Pardew make it sound like his lack of playing time was related to the manager's displeasure with his work rate.  Chelsea's week sort of fits this theme too; they had a win over Sunderland but a loss on the road at Stoke which leaves them five points back of Arsenal.

                                                                          

Man Utd's theme is not a happy one - a pair of 0-1 losses to teams that had not won at Old Trafford since I was in high school this century.  First it was Everton, winning on Costa Rican international Bryan Oviedo's late goal; this was the Toffees first away win against Man United since 1992.  Lightning struck again on Saturday; Newcastle's aforementioned triumph was the Magpies first win at Old Trafford since 1972.  Working from memory, I recall the Everton match felt competitive but the Red Devils looked at sea against Newcastle; I'm sure Rooney's one-game suspension (accumulated yellow cards) didn't help.  David Moyes looked much younger when he started the season.

And Arsenal continues to fly above all this, taking four points from their two matches.  Wednesday was a relatively easy win 2-0 over a decent Hull City.  Sunday was a cracking 1-1 draw with Everton.  Truly a joy to watch, though maybe the Everton and "neutral" fans (i.e. not Arsenal fans) were happier with the result; only Gerard Deulofue's marvelous shot in the 84th minute kept the Gunners from taking a seven point lead at the top of the table.

This week's YouTube-able Moment goes to Southampton's Pablo Osvaldo for his goal in the 1-1 draw versus Man City; the settling of the long pass, the touch past Vincent Kompany, and the curling shot to the top far corner were of the highest quality.

And we're looking at another quiet seven days.  Champions League and Europe Cup action mid-week, a full slate of EPL matches on weekend, plus the NCAA finals.  The EPL weekend gets off to a roaring start with Man City hosting Arsenal.  Newcastle entertains Southampton; I like the Magpies recent form but Southampton, even with some key personnel injured, is a tough opponent.  Chelsea should be able to see Crystal Palace off, especially at Stamford Bridge.  Sunday early has Aston Villa home against Man Utd and later we have Tottenham versus Liverpool at White Hart Lane.

Bob K - I see that Sevilla FC beat Racing in the Esp Cup.  I'm assuming this is something akin to the FA Cup and Racing is a lower division team?  Please to explain.

Groups of Death, Pestilence and Plague

From Nate Silver, percentage chances of advancing:

http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1641670/all-groups?cc=5901

Not a great draw for the US but it's better than Group B and possibly D.  Wouldn't think there's much celebrating at The Hague right now.  Or Rome.

He has Brazil at 99.6% chance to move on.  Guess he left himself a little room there.

For those into it, here's his self-review on the SPI's performance in 2010:

http://espnfc.com/world-cup/columns/story/_/id/5392992/ce/us/soccer-power-index-update?cc=5901&ver=us

Six months to analyze the groups before play actually starts.  Probably not a good thing.  Better to watch your favorite club(s) in the interim than overanalyze the World Cup.  Let them break your heart before your national team does.

World Cup Draw

The draw for the 2014 World Cup Finals takes place this Friday at 11 am EST.  Think of it as NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Sunday gone global.  And like NCAA bracketology, there will be plenty of analysis after the groups are set.  The format won't be officially announced until tomorrow but everyone expects the teams to be grouped as follows:

 

Seeded - Brazil, Argentina, Spain, Germany, Uruguay, Switzerland, Colombia, and Belgium (wait, one of these teams is not like the others)

One Pot - CONCACAF (US, Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico) and Asia (Japan, Iran, South Korea, and Australia)

Another Pot - Europe (Holland, England, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Croatia, Russia, and Bosnia Herzegovina)

Final Pot - Africa (Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon, Algeria), Ecuador, Chile, and France

 

Each of the eight groups will consist of one team from each pot.  The US pot is generally considered to be the weakest, which is an automatic disadvantage in that their group will not include one of these weaker sides.  ESPN statistician Paul Carr calculates the US odds at advancing to the knock out rounds at 43%, ranging from 15% if placed in a group of Spain, Netherlands and Chile (Group of Death indeed) to 74% if their group consists of Switzerland, Algeria and Croatia.  Don't have the details but I'm sure you can follow the 45 minute draw on TV, radio or online if your schedule permits.

 

Mixed results this weekend for those who follow this wanna-be-maybe-soon-to-be-blog-but-now-just-a-long-email-chain.  Newcastle made me smile with their 4th straight W, which came courtesy of a laser strike by Sissoko shortly after West Brom had tied the scored at 1-1.  A classic "what the hell are you doing shooting from th...GREAT TAKE!"  The Magpies were up to 5th before the Sunday matches and finished the weekend 6th in the table.  And this with the likes of Ben Arfa, Cisse, and Gutierrez left on the bench for the time being.  Not sure what to think but certainly enjoying the run.

 

In Football Manager I get to give pregame, halftime and post-game pep talks, choosing from 5-6 options.  One of those choices after a disappointing performance is "Not good enough."  That has to be the reaction after Aston Villa's 0-0 home draw with lowly Sunderland.  Dennis reported that it wasn't even that close; according to him the Villans had nothing, underperforming in every phase of the game.  His faith is being tested early. 

 

Luke and Michael P saw Arsenal maintain their four point lead at the top of the table with a 3-0 road victory over Cardiff City.  Aaron Ramsey certainly enjoyed his Wales homecoming as he tallied two for the Gunners.  Watching the match, it felt more competitive than the final score would indicate but the quality of Arsenal's finishing was on a different plane than Cardiff's.  This match also included the "YouTubeable Moment" of the weekend when Olivier Giroud, clear of all defenders, stopped dead in his tracks waiting for an offsides call that never came.  At first viewing it was incomprehensible that he stopped; subsequent replays showed that an intervening touch from Ozil probably did mean Giroud was offsides but it was not called and isn't the first rule of thumb "play the whistle?"  As in, upon further review, it's still incomprehensible he pulled up.

 

Supposedly a draw is like kissing your sister but when your whole family got mugged the previous Sunday, maybe it's not so bad.   A 2-2 home draw for Tottenham against Man United was a dramatic improvement and had to make Michael B feel a little better.  Both managers were making noises about wanting the three points but I would have thought given their circumstances, both were relieved to at least get the draw. 

 

Other matches of note include Chelsea 3-1 beating of Southampton.  Again, this matched seemed much more competitive but Chelsea could finish while Southampton's only goal came on an ill-advised back pass from Essien.  That's two weekends in a row where Southampton came to London, looked good, but came away with nothing.  Maybe they're not ready for prime time.  Liverpool slipped seven points behind Arsenal after losing 3-1 to Hull City, the newly promoted side that is playing like they would like to stay in the EPL.  Everton is knocking at the door of the top four after a 4-0 thrashing of Stoke.

 

Quick turnaround as everybody plays mid week, then again on the weekend.  Newcastle has away matches with Swansea and Man United; yikes, that's a tough week right there.  Aston Villa is away to Southampton (smarting after consecutive losses to Arsenal and Chelsea) then away to an absolutely struggling Fulham side, whose manager will be in just his second EPL match.  Arsenal has a couple of tricky matches - Hull City and Everton - but will at least have the advantage of being home for both contests.  Tottenham, though on the road, has Fulham and Sunderland.  Just what the doctor ordered; play two of these and call me in the morning.

 

Bob K reports Sevilla won again and finds itself 6th in the La Ligue table.  Don't forget MLS Cup on Saturday afternoon at 4 pm on ESPN - Sporting KC versus Real Salt Lake.  Yeah, I know the quality isn't EPL but if we don't support what we have, it will never improve.  In England, fans support lower division teams and even with the 20 EPL teams to choose from.

 

Buckle up, busy week.  Make sure you clean out the stale matches from the DVR.