One or Two Steps Up, No Steps Back

 Mostly better results for the BFS sides this weekend plus some thoroughly entertaining stuff.

If It Quacks Like a Duck

Classic early deficit for Newcastle

On paper, the Newcastle - Leeds match looked to be a draw, the match I saw on TV looked like a draw and the stats suggest it was a draw.  This one had a very unsatisfying start, as Raphinha sent a long cross into the box that ended up untouched in the goal.  Darlow was held in place by the run of a Leeds attacker and Lascelles didn't play the ball either.  The cross was superb so Leeds probably deserved a goal out of it but still frustrating to watch.  Fortunately Newcastle did have a viable counterattack going (actually whole first half was frantic back-and-forth attacking) and Saint-Maximin did level things with a fine goal of his own just before half.  We make it this week's runner up YouTubeableMoment.  The second half wasn't as action-packed; there were some chances for both, but neither side could break the deadlock.  On balance, while it was pins and needles for Magpie fans, this one was entertaining for the neutral.

A Noble Gesture?

Speaking of entertaining, the best viewing of the weekend was West Ham versus Man United with something for everyone.  Ronaldo fans got treated to another goal.  Ronaldo haters got treated to seeing him denied at least three penalty shouts, though in truth one of them might actually have been a penalty.  West Ham did have an early lead that was erased with the Ronaldo goal.  Great stuff to watch even though the match entered the late stages still at 1-1. Last week's goat for Man United (but last year's hero for West Ham) broke that deadlock with a sweet strike in the 89th minute.

That looked like the game winner until Luke Shaw was whistled for handling in the box.  Providing fodder for pundits and armchair managers everywhere, David Moyes chose to bring on Mark Noble to take the PK.  No doubt that Noble is good at this.  Stepping onto the pitch, his conversion rate in EPL matches was 90.5% (38 for 42).  Now he is down to 88.4%, as his attempt was mediocre at best and was easily saved by deGea, who had been 0 for his last 21 in stopping PKs dating back to October 2014.  I suppose if I searched harder I might find some support for Moyes here but the criticism looks to be universal - from the BFS text stream to the newspapers to the pundit shows.  You can see the play from the WHU fans' perspective in this video we will label the agony of de feet.

Who Are Those Guys?

Another fun match was Aston Villa - Everton.  This one was close, until it wasn't.  For 60+ minutes the sides traded chances.  Then, in a matter of 10 minutes, it was over.  First there was a great run and even better strike from Matty Cash.  Then an own goal from Luca Digne.  The final nail was this goal from summer acquisition Leon Bailey.  And suddenly, as Arlo White put it, Villa had taken Everton to the cleaners.  Nice to know some expressions work on both sides of the pond.

Another Gentleman's C?

For the second week in a row, Arsenal barely passed what should have been a relatively easy test, shading Burnley 1-0.  Sure, it's hard to play at Turf Moor.  Still, that looked like a draw to me.  The stats suggest a draw; actually xG says Burnley 1.55-1.20.  Claret fans will feel hard done that a foul in the box by Ramsdale (wait, he started over Leno? what's up with that?) was questioned by the VAR and overturned by Anthony Taylor after he went to the monitor - and watched the whole play this time!  For me, this was correct given the EPL's directive that about fouls in the box.

Consecutive 1-0 wins over 19th and 20th in the table is no way to go through life in the EPL - unless you're Newcastle.  This must be unacceptable for Gunners fans.  Big test on Sunday as they face Spurs.

Speaking of Spurs, they did no better with 11 on the field for the whole match, falling to Chelsea 0-3.  First half was actually pretty even, ending at 0-0.  Things, uh, unraveled in the second half.  I'm tempted to say the final score is unfair to Spurs, given that the second goal was a wicked deflection off Dier and the third goal came in stoppage time.  On the other hand, xG says this was Chelsea 2.45-.9, not exactly close.  

In Other Action

I did see Brentford take Wolves 2-0; the Bees are certainly defying the early season predictions of a tough year in the top tier.  Long way to go though.  

Liverpool took their sweet time dispatching Crystal Palace but the 3-0 final looks about right so the Red Devils kept pace with Chelsea and Man United.  Not so for Man City, who apparently huffed and puffed but could not break through against Southampton.  Part of the explanation might be that despite 16 shots, they managed just one on target.  The Saints now have four consecutive draws including ties with Man United, Man City, West Ham and Newcastle.  One of these is not like the others.

Man City's struggle allowed for the winner of the Brighton - Leicester match to slip into 4th place.  That would be Brighton.  The Seagulls have four wins against just one loss.  Most of the wins are not exactly top of the table types but you can only beat who you play.  Must be nice to put up 12 points quickly to keep the early relegation noise to a minimum.  Rounding out the week, Watford kept Norwich pointless with a 3-1 win on the road.

After five matches, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United have no losses while Southampton, Newcastle, Leeds, Burnley and Norwich still have yet to win.

Which Cazoo are you?

Who Are Cazoo?

Did you notice that Aston Villa - Everton match was the Claret Cazoos versus the White Cazoos?  So what exactly is a Cazoo?  It is a British on-line car retailer based in London apparently making enough money to sponsor two EPL teams and host of lower division sides as well.  More details here.

The U Move in the Right Direction

A mixture of satisfaction and relief at Subaru Park as the Union got a key 3-1 win over Orlando City.  With the early run of play, the Kai Wagner's late first half goal seemed like a just reward.  As I was commenting to Jeff K about the Union going flat in the second half, Ruan's header off a great cross leveled things at 57 minutes.  Maybe the most important moment of the season was the Union response to that goal.  They got right back on attack and shuhBILLkoh put them back on top after some lovely work along the byline by Monteiro and Bedoya.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  They added a third with a PK after Santos was brought down in the box.

They say speed kills - Santos in full stride

Yes, it was a shorthanded Orlando, playing without Nani and Andres Perea.  The Union have played without key players at times.  Yes, shuhBILLkoh may have indeed fouled Schlegel prior to the Union's first goal.  Though there was confusion, as the AR did raise his flag; the official explanation looks to be that referee Alan Kelly played advantage but Orlando lost the ball (helpful explanation here).  Okay, maybe shuhBILLkoh could have been red carded there but VAR is supposed to look at that.  We heard that the Disciplinary Board might have a second look at it but as of this writing, no word.

Many fine performances here.  Bedoya's work on the left wing in the first half was excellent.  Flach ran his usual 20 miles or so.  Santos was a big help as a sub when speed was needed. Also, very happy to see that Curtin doesn't wait anymore to sub out Bedoya before he runs out of gas.  

Still a ton of work to do but this would be one of those signature wins that define a season.  

If You Still Carabao It Cup

Round of 32 matches were this week.  If you care, results and fixtures are available here.

No World Cup for You?

Selection for the 2026 World Cup venues was a topic this week.  As noted in this article, the committee was in Philly checking out the Linc.  The odds seem stack against the city, an unlucky combination of geography and politics.  Still, I will find it particularly galling if Gillette Stadium is selected over Lincoln Financial Field.  Inconvenient location outside of Boston and they'll have to lay natural grass on top of the artificial turf.  But as Tannenwald notes, FIFA will do whatever it wants.

Momentum?

Important weekend as Newcastle and the Union have chances to build on last week's results.  Plus several big EPL match ups.  

But first a rant.  Are you effing kidding me?  The powers-that-be have scheduled both Chelsea - Man City and Man United - Aston Villa for 7:30 Saturday morning.  And the latter is only available on Peacock.  What are they thinking?  Obviously Chelsea - MCI is the match of the weekend (sorry North London derby fans).  Chelsea have been hot, City less so but this figures to be a good one.  The Man United - Villa match doesn't look as tight on paper but I think it could still be a good watch; remember that the Villans gave Chelsea a hard time a few weeks ago.  Might have something to do with the Ryder Cup, although that only affects NBC, not NBCSN so not clear what's up.  No consideration for the fans here.  I kid, mostly, but this does seem to be poor choice, especially when you look at the 10 am fixtures.

One of those 10 am matches is Watford - Newcastle (on Peacock) that surely can be of interest only to the die-hard fans of those two sides.  Of course, it is a big one for both teams, as both are likely to find themselves in, say, the bottom five or six come later this season.  At 538 they have Watford as a slight favorite (38% to 35% with 26% chance of a draw).  Ideally, we'd like a win here but on the road I will say now I'd be happy with a draw.

The 10 am match that gets TV is the less-than-stellar Leicester hosting winless Burnley.  The other 10 am matches on Peacock are Everton - Norwich (anything less than Toffee win here will be unacceptable) and Leeds - West Ham (probably would be fun to watch if none of the others catch your fancy).

Feature match at 12:30 on NBCSN (not NBC because of Ryder Cup) is Brentford - Liverpool.  The Bees fans are probably thrilled with their start and may feel there's nothing to lose here.  But they will be up against it.

Big London derby on Sunday at 11:30 between Arsenal and Tottenham.  Neither have been impressive lately but there has to be a result here.  I wonder if this is the last test for Arteta; a draw or better and he sticks around but a loss would be the end of the road?  You can warm up for the derby with what looks like a competitive match with Southampton hosting Wolves at 9 am on NBCSN.  Only one point separates them but my sense is that Southampton have had some good luck while the Wolves have not.

On Monday, fourth place Brighton travels to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace at 3 pm on NBCSN.  The Eagles can be tough there so the Seagles Seagulls will have work to do; I smell an entertaining draw.

The Union take on Atlanta at friendly Subaru Park looking to build on the win over Orlando.  This one is at 3:30 but coverage is limited to Univision and TUDN; I wonder if this another English broadcast on the Spanish station.  If it's not in English, a good chance to learn some more Spanish.

Well That Went Well...Not

Eesh, not much good to report for Newcastle, the Union or even Football Manager for that matter.  

Three Goal Losses 

Saturday was particularly galling as I watched three clubs of interest - on delay no less - lose by three goals.  Start off with Tottenham's wretched effort at Selhurst Park.  The Eagles were already outplaying Spurs when Tanganga got himself sent off for two yellows in the space of five minutes.  Took a little while for Crystal Palace to take advantage but take advantage they did and the 3-0 final looks totally representative of what we saw on the pitch.  

Proceed to Old Trafford for the EPL re-debut of Christian Ronaldo.  As expected, the Magpies were set up in their defensive 5-3-2 shape.  They absorbed the pressure well and managed some counter attacks so we were prepared to go in at half happy at 0-0.  Except Ronaldo scored in stoppage time.  We argue this was bad luck as opposed to anything special from CR7.  The ball was deflected off a Newcastle defender, which meant that Woodman didn't handle it as cleanly as he should have and of course the rebound fell at Ronaldo's feet.  Newcastle did level things with a rare goal from Manquillo (ironically in the line up over Jacob Murphy for defensive purposes).  But Ronaldo got a second, more deserved this time, shortly thereafter, STAYING ON HIS FEET for a change and getting off a nice shot that beat Woodman in the five hole.  I was preparing to feel pretty good about a 1-2 loss except MUN added two late goals to make the final 4-1.  This one felt like 2-1 and xG mostly backs me up.  Sure, a loss but not awful.

We closed the day out with Chelsea - Aston Villa.  The final says 3-0 but our eyes tell us that Villa were the better side.  The stats, especially xG, suggest our eyes did not deceive us.  This was at worst a draw.

So we had a big goose egg for Saturday, though we suspect Jeff H was okay with proceedings.

A Little Help Here?

Though my initial reaction to results elsewhere was "thanks a lot guys," closer inspection says overall, Newcastle may have gotten some help.  The Palace win wasn't helpful, nor was Southampton's 0-0 draw with West Ham.  But Arsenal did their job - barely - with a 1-0 win over Norwich; didn't see the match but it reads like the Gunners pushed the Canaries all over the place yet only managed the one goal.  Though the Wolves 2-0 win over Watford pushed them past Newcastle in the table, we are more realistically worried about Watford in the relegation battle so this was fine.  Thoroughly enjoyable match on Monday as Everton rallied from 0-1 to handle Burnley 3-1.  A 90th minute goal got Brighton a 1-0 win over previously unbeaten Brentford; we might have preferred a draw there.

And how sad is it that I'm already closely following results at the bottom of the table?

Meanwhile, In Another Part of Town

Liverpool took care of shorthanded Leeds (more on that below) 3-0. Earlier this year we noted that Leeds can be like a chicken with its head cut off - running around not knowing it's already dead.  A man down, we will suggest they run around like a chicken with its head and one leg cut off; they just don't know any other way.  It does make for entertaining football though.  Man City look to have run Leicester City all over the map but only have a 1-0 win to show for it.

So we have four teams (Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Everton) at 3-1-0; the first three also have a goal differential of +8 but United are top based on goals scored.  

Elliott Down

One of the few pleasures so far this year has been watching my Forest Green Football Manager star, Harvey Elliott, perform live for Liverpool.  Even that has been taken away, as he suffered a dislocated ankle after a tackle in the match with Leeds.  The good news is that he had successful surgery and is expected back this season.  No timeframe was given for his comeback.  I am not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV; however, checking the web suggests likely a 12-week recovery before sport-specific training can begin.  That would put him back in the line up maybe by the beginning of the year.

Struijk beats Elliott to the ball and does not come
 thru him after the challenge

The Leeds player who made the tackle, Pascal Struijk, received a red card for the challenge.  I argue this was a case of sanctioning to the injury, not the challenge - reminiscent of Son's tackle on Gomez last year.  Craig Pawson was in excellent position to see the play and made no call at the time. Very confusing as to whether or how much  the fourth official or VAR were involved but Pawson ended up showing Struijk a red card, without going to check out the play himself on the monitor.  I have watched the video and while it's not pretty, it's not as gruesome as you might think.  I include a still picture (sorry for the quality) of the first part of the challenge.  As you can clearly see, this was NOT a tackle from behind.  I remind people all the time, getting the ball does not mean there might not be a foul.  But the direction of the tackle is not into Elliott; the collision after the tackle is as much Elliott's momentum as Struijk's.  There is quite a bit of support that this was not a red card.  However, as with the handling case a few week's ago, the authorities do not agree with me; the league rejected an appeal of the red card.  

Fortunately for me, Elliott's injury in real life has no impact on his play for me in Football Manager, as the game separates from reality the moment you start.  Think about that statement for a minute.

A quick note on Forest Green.  After blowing through League One last year, we are finding life in the Championship Division a bit more rigorous.  Through five matches we have two wins, two draws and a loss.  Plus we are already out of the League Cup.  My initial thought is that while we are good enough to stay up promotion at the first time of asking may be beyond our reach.

Mortuary Ball of the Week

We all know about a hospital ball, a pass so weak that it subjects the recipient to heavy contact, possibly requiring hospitalization.  I add a new term this week - a mortuary ball - a pass so bad it leaves your teammate for dead.  We have two excellent examples this week.

First Tyrone Mings ruined 49 minutes of superb play by Aston Villa with this back pass.  Instead of 0-1, Villa were now down 0-2 on the road to Chelsea.  As bad as that was, we're going with this one from Man United's Jesse (oh to be back at West Ham) Lingard.  Maybe only marginally more egregious than Mings', the context elevates it to our winner.  The play cost United a point in Champions League group stage play, with the late goal giving Young Boys all three points.  An ugly day for the Red Devils as a Ronaldo goal had given them a lead but Wan-Bissaka's red card at 35 minutes allowed the Young Boys back into the match.

No CONCACAF Champions League Final for U

We know it was a long shot, coming home 0-2 to Club America.  There was always a chance though if they could get the first goal.  Club America did well to confound, confuse and otherwise annoy the Union for the first 30 minutes.  Then, our guys started to grow into the game and arguably had the run of play the rest of the night.  That advantage on the field was about to show up on the scoreboard when shuhBILLkoh was fouled in the box.  Unfortunately, Ochoa saved Monteiro's take, then saved Burke's rebound attempt.  Monteiro's take was actually pretty good; maybe you fault him for telegraphing the attempt too much but Ochoa was fully extended and the ball was at a difficult height.  This was likely the turning point of the match so we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Club America got a deflected goal (second one of the tie) and a late one in stoppage to make this a 0-2 final (0-4 on aggregate).

A spirited two-leg effort from the Union.  Failure to convert the chances they had and maybe a little bad luck - CA had two deflected goals and a softish PK.  We won't blame referee Said Martinez for the loss but we will fault him on two fronts.  First, have some balls and show yellow cards for persistent delay of game on free kicks.  After one or maybe two warnings to move back, show the damn yellow card.  Finger wagging and arm gestures don't stop that behavior.  Second, the foul on shuhBILLkoh should have been red for DOGSO.  The double jeopardy clause only applies if there was a legitimate attempt to tackle the ball.  In this case, the defender grabbed CatsPurr's shoulder.  

Sucks To Be Right Sometimes

Last week I warned that it was possible that by the time the Union kicked off against Orlando on Sunday afternoon, they could find themselves in 9th place.  The dreaded "results elsewhere" have conspired to make it happen.  Actually, it could get even worse, as Columbus play Saturday and could climb past the Union with a win against New England.

The good news is that the Union have a game or two in hand on several of the teams above them.  The bad news is that only matters if you get results in those matches.  So upcoming home matches with Orlando and Atlanta take on critical importance.

The participation in Champions League was both valuable and cool.  But failure to make the playoffs will take most (all) of the sheen off that accomplishment.

There's A New Sheriff in Town (hat tip Bob K)

Sheriff's name comes from a
company in the region
 but the badge is a more fun image

Making their Champions League group stage debut this week was Fotbal Club Sheriff, often referred to as Sheriff Tiraspol, or even more simply, Sheriff.  Where to begin?  Well, of course their emblem is a badge, though the name derives from a company in the region.  What region is that you might ask?  They are a Moldovan club based in Tiraspol.  Except Tiraspol is a city located in the unrecognized Pridnestovian Moldavian Republic, otherwise known as Transnistria.  For those wishing to continue the geo-political lesson, click here.  The narrow strip of land that constitutes Transnistria looks like a gerrymandered Republican Congressional district.

But we digress.  The club has had some success, qualifying for Europa four times and Champions League twice.  Their group stage debut went swimmingly as they bested Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 and sit atop Group D. Ya done good, guys.  

Try Again

On paper, two best matches of the weekend involve the BFS sides.  Newcastle host Leeds Friday afternoon at 3 pm (NBCSN).  Two sides with more differing philosophies I don't think you'll find.  Leeds are a car with no reverse or even neutral gear while Newcastle are a bus that is frequently parked.  The Magpies figure to be under pressure the whole time.  Some optimism here because they did manage decent counters against Man United and should have more luck with those counters against a weaker side, particularly one missing some key defenders.  

For the second straight week, Aston Villa are the 12:30 Saturday feature match on NBC, this time against Everton.  This should be fun, two evenly matched sides that offer attractive football.  Highly recommended.  

Best action at the top of the table is a London Derby featuring Tottenham - Chelsea at 11:30 on Sunday (curiously only on Peacock).  Both are coming off unimpressive performances.  Chelsea have only allowed one goal so far while Spurs are averaging less than one per game; they'll have to change that trend to get a result. The other topside match of interest is West Ham hosting Man United (Sunday at 9 am on NBCSN).  Though both are undefeated, the Red Devils are in much better form.

Liverpool and Man City have every chance to stay close to the top with home matches against Crystal Palace and Southampton respectively.  Both of those are at 10 am on Saturday.  However, my choice for that time slot is Burnley - Arsenal, which is conveniently available on NBCSN.  Having barely passed one test against Norwich last week, Mikel Arteta and the Gunners face a tougher side, on the road.  

Saturday morning early risers can take in Wolves - Brentford at 7:30 Saturday on NBCSN.  Relegation candidates Norwich and Watford square off at 10 am Saturday on Peacock.  Rounding out the schedule is Brighton - Leicester Sunday at 9 on Peacock.  They are 6th and 9th respectively, though the order is reversed from what you might expect.  This could be a pretty good watch if Brighton continue their early season form.

We'll be at Subaru Park Sunday afternoon at 4 to see the Union take on Orlando City.  Trite to say but this is a critical contest.  ESPN seems to agree, as they will be televising the game.  Three points is practically a must.  

I hear that doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results is the definition of insanity.  But I'll be watching again this weekend.

On the Road Again

(apologies to Willie Nelson)

The good news is that despite travel to the Delaware and Maryland coasts, I was able to catch all the key games.  The bad news is that they included some pretty crappy results.  We'll go in sort of reverse chronological order, with my memory getting worse the farther back we go.

We Knew Him When

The USMNT was about 45 minutes away from a disastrous opening to the Octogan, CONCACAF's final step in World Cup qualifying.  With a sort of acceptable 0-0 draw on the road to El Salvador and an unacceptable home 1-1 draw to Canada already in the books, the US were down 0-1 on the road in Honduras.  Worse than the score itself was the fact that it was totally merited, with the US looking like a team only in that they were wearing the same uniforms.

Berhalter changed the formation back to a more familiar 4-3-3 and put in Antonee Robinson, Lletget and former Union star Brenden Aaronson.  That worked out swimmingly.  Robinson scored in the 48th minute, Aaronson in the 86th minute and Lletget in the 93rd minute.  Throw in a 75th minute tally from Pepi and there's your 4-1 final.  Instead of finishing the first round of matches in 5th or 6th, the goals were enough to move the US past Panama into third.   

Brenden Aaronson (c): We'd buy him a beer but he's not old enough
 Photo:Brad Smith/ISI Photos/Getty Images

After a lackluster performance against El Salvador, Brendon Aaronson has stepped up to be a key part of the team.  He got the only US goal in the draw with Canada; he actually started the play with a nifty steal of the ball, then continued his run into the box and put away the cross from Antonee Robinson.  Against Honduras, he was a key factor in changing the tone of the match, he was involved in the second goal and scored the third one on a nice break with Pepi (who had a great game too!).   

Great that Berhalter was able to turn things around with halftime adjustments.  But this first round of qualifiers should be a warning that nothing is easy these days in WC qualifying.  Mexico is finding this out too; sure, they have two wins and a draw but needed a late goal to beat Jamaica, only managed a PK in a 1-0 win over Costa Rica and drew 1-1 Panama with another latish goal.  Maybe the US needed a reminder that this ain't the Gold Cup.

The State of the Union

In two words - not good.  Since we last spoke, there were losses to DC United (3-1) and New England (0-1).  Against DC, we had an early lead but saw that disappear by early in the second half.  In contrast to earlier matches when the Union were down a goal, we can't say that Curtin threw caution to the wind; his substitutions looked like for like to me.  Didn't help as they conceded a third goal in stoppage time.  I don't see anything in the statistics to say this was not an accurate result.

The New England game was more frustrating.  I don't remember the Union being seriously outplayed but they were down 0-1 after a 33rd minute goal from Polster.  Prospects were looking up though when Traustason got a second yellow at 59 minutes.  The Union were on the front foot from there on out but could not find a goal.  All the stats says this was at worst a draw suggesting that finishing is becoming a problem again. 

After this rough patch, the Union sit 5th, though they are 6th in points per game.  The Union's CONCACAF Champions League semi-final second leg against Club America means almost every team plays two games before the Union's next MLS match on Sunday 9/19.   By kick-off of that game, they could conceivably be sitting as low as 9th in the table.  Nothing like a little pressure for the home matches versus Orlando City and Atlanta.

The Luck (or Unluck) of the Draw

Going back to EPL action two weekends ago...wait, you can't expect me to remember much about them.  I do recall a lot of draws, some deserved, others not so much.  

For example, Newcastle were wretched in the first half at home versus Southampton and should have been down at least 0-2; they were lucky to escape 0-0.  They were better in the second half and even had a 1-0 lead for a time.  They were heading towards a 1-1 draw when out of nothing, ASM got what could have been the game winner in the 91st minute.  Ah, but this is Newcastle, and the Magpies coughed up a PK in the last minute of stoppage time and had to settle for a 2-2 final.  Really hard to say they were unlucky given how bad they were at times and the stats back up that contention.  In fact, though they gave up the tying goal in stoppage time, they were lucky to escape with a draw.

Aston Villa could do no better than 1-1 versus newbies (new Bees?) Brentford.  Didn't see the match but stats suggest this was a fair result, even mildly flattering to Aston Villa.  Other draws included West Ham - Crystal Palace (2-2), Burnley - Leeds (1-1) and Liverpool - Chelsea (1-1 - more on that one below).

We also have the curious case of dopplegangers Tottenham and Wolves.  Through three matches, Spurs are unbeaten and untied, winning each match 1-0.  And yet, the stats say they may have been a bit lucky.  The recent 1-0 win over Watford looks okay if not overwhelming.  But the wins over Wolves and Man City look like they were stolen, with Spurs outplayed.  On the other side, Wolves have lost all three of their matches 0-1.  And yet the stats say they could be undefeated.  Having seen most of each teams games, some of this does come down to luck.  But maybe, it's also a function of clinical finishing.  Just putting that out there.

Dead Man Coaching?

Arsenal's home match with Man City was always going to be a tester.  When Granit Xhaka got sent off for a rash challenge with City already up 2-0, it turned into a turkey shoot.  The final was 5-0.  The Gunners have lost all three matches so far, failed to score a goal, and sit last in the table with a -9 goal differential.  Okay, losses to Chelsea and Man City might have been anticipated.  And their next two matches are Norwich and Burnley.  Failure to win either of those might be enough to get Arteta sacked.  Even if they get two wins, after that comes Spurs at home.  Maybe that's the decision point.

Handling (Again)

A big play in the Liverpool - Chelsea match was the sending off of Reece James for DOGSO just before halftime.  Mo Salah converted the PK to level things at 1-1 but Chelsea would do a superb job of defending the entire second half despite being a man down.

The play itself generated some controversy.  You can see a good summary of the incident here.  Anthony Taylor made no call at the time but got word from his VAR that there might have been handling.  After a little back and forth on the ear piece, Taylor went to the monitor, looked only at a still photograph of the play and decided it was DOGSO.

What I saw was the ball coming off James' leg and striking his arm, which I argue was in a natural position at the time (see the still photograph).  For me, he has not "handled" the ball at that point.  However, after the contact, James then moves his arm forward, propelling the ball away from the goal. That is handling for me and I would have awarded the PK.  Maybe I am splitting hairs but the denying the goal part of this play was not handling; when he propelled the ball away it wasn't going in because it had already hit James.  I am in a distinct minority on this one.  BFS Keeper Consultant Graham R says I'm being too nuanced.  He saw an instinctual movement to keep the ball out of the goal and that is was DOGSO.  The unbiased part of the internet (i.e. not Chelsea fans) generally agrees with Graham's interpretation, even after discounting the pundits who said that handling in the box is an automatic red card (it's not).

A picture is worth 1,000 words but the whole video
 would have been worth a lot more

I am still left with the question of how does Taylor decide it's a red card based only on the still photo. 
Hell, he doesn't even get all the way to the monitor.  Without the video, he misses an exculpatory aspect for the defendant (the ball coming off his thigh) but also Exhibit B for the prosecution (the forward movement of the arm).   I found a little more support for that view - how does Taylor not take the time to more carefully review the play given the impact of his decision.  Also, is he saying that James' arm is in an unnatural position when the ball hits it?  His arm is barely away from his body.  

The call certainly changed the tenor of the game.  Maybe Chelsea were only going to get a point out of trip to Anfield anyway, but it was a different second half than we were looking forward to.

Worst Dive of the Week

Okay, it wasn't on the pitch but it's worth seeing again.  Story and video are here.  He was charged with "false swearing with the intent to cause an emergency response."  In other words, he was "booked" for simulation.

Euro WC Qualifiers

Yeah, I know there were a bunch.  Even saw a couple.  Don't feel prepared enough to comment.

Did You Know?

For more than 40 years, 

no game of any kind, be that Premier League, Championship, or even Bundesliga or LaLiga, can be broadcast live on British television on a Saturday between 2.45 p.m. and 5.15 p.m..

Explanation is here.  Basically, the thinking is that it will discourage attendance.

Schedule

A new wrinkle this weekend - a return to refereeing.  Covid-19 wiped out last year's club schedule but we're set to try again.  I like being out there even though it does cramp the viewing a little.

Competitive fixtures are in short supply so the marquee match of the week might be Man United hosting Newcastle (Saturday 10 am USA), which will feature the return of Christian Ronaldo to the Red Devils.  BFS Diving Expert and Co-founder Dennis F can barely contain himself, thinking about the uptick in possible yellow cards for simulation.  Whether this was a good move for the player or the club is the subject of much debate; you can get some of the flavor of that debate here.  All I know is that this fixture still looks like a mountain for the Magpies to climb; at 538 they give Newcastle an 11% chance of winning and 17% chance of getting a draw.

Aston Villa will have their hands full taking on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge; their odds are not much better than Newcastle's.  This is the feature match at 12:30 on NBC.

Most competitive match of the weekend looks to be Brentford - Brighton.  Make that, still undefeated Brentford (win and two draws).  This one could be tight - Saturday at 10 am on Peacock.  Watford -Wolves (Saturday 10 am on Peacock) might be close, with Wolves a slight favorite to get their first points.  Surprising that 538 has Southampton - West Ham as reasonably close; probably because the Hammers are on the road.

The only top table type of clash this week might not be all that close, with Leicester hosting Man City (10 am Saturday on Peacock).  The Foxes haven't been all that bad but City seems to be figuring things out.  League leading Spurs (TOT stands for Top of the Table) have a London derby with Crystal Palace at the TV home of Ted Lasso's AFC Richmond (aka Selhurst Park).   No reason to think Spurs don't come away with all three points here.  Liverpool will look to keep pace as they travel to Leeds (Sunday 11:30 on NBCSN).  And, unbeaten Everton also will try to stay that way, hosting Burnley (Monday at 3 pm on NBCSN).

Last place Arsenal host 19th place Norwich as the Gunners try to get on the board; that's at 10 Saturday on Peacock.  Solid favorites here so anything less than a win puts Arteta at greater risk.  

As I mentioned, no MLS action for the Union this week.  However, they do have the second leg of the CONCACAF Champions League semi-final at 9 pm on Wednesday night at Subaru Park.  Don't know yet if I'll be at this match.  Recall that the Union are down 0-2 after the first leg.  Keeping a clean sheet  will be critical since the U didn't get a goal in the first leg in Mexico.  That is, a 2-0 win on Wednesday would force extra time but a 3-1 win would send Club America to the final on the away goal rule.  Given their recent form, this feels like a long shot.  

Not Our Best

A less-than-stellar BFS derby, a not-too-competitive London derby and an unnecessarily close Union result.  Sigh.

One Moment of Quality

The BFS derby had been largely devoid of anything resembling good football and the uneventful first half was set to quietly expire at 0-0.  The problem is that Matty Cash has such a long throw-in that any ball into touch in the final, say, 20-25 yards is basically the equivalent of a corner for Aston Villa.  In the first half's final play, Cash lofted a throw into the box that Tyrone Mings flicked further into the box to the waiting foot of Danny Ings.  Well, "waiting foot" kind of understates what Ings did.  Check out his spectacular bicycle kick which we must reluctantly make this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Could be the goal of the year.  We also note the alliterative scoring combination here of Mings to Ings. The second goal came on PK after VAR suggested Lascelles had handled the ball in the box.  The new guidance for handling is more subjective than in the past:

  "A player is considered to have made their body unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player's body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised."" 

Close, but even thicker lines couldn't save the Magpies

Hard to argue the call.  While it was somewhat unlucky for Newcastle, it would have been equally
unlucky for Aston Villa not to get a goal out of that opportunity.  Newcastle didn't fold up shop and even looked to be poised to cut the deficit in half with plenty of time to go when Callum Wilson was fouled in the box by keeper Martinez.  Except VAR correctly identified that Wilson was offside in the buildup so no PK. 

Since we had no expectations of a result here, we were mildly encouraged by some of the things we saw.  The defense was basically solid; the two goals were an incredible bicycle kick and sort of unlucky PK.  The Magpies did generate a few decent chances as well and actually had more possession.  The problem is that of the nine shots, only one was on target, a very weak header just as the final whistle was blowing.  Realistically, we might have been tapped for two points after the first two matches so this is not a disaster of a start.  On the other hand, two points here and there is the difference between an excruciating season spent near the drop zone and a comfortable run through the lower mid table.

Side note: Did you see that Bruce started the exact line up I recommended in last week's blog?  I don't know if that's a good or bad thing.

Second side note: Dennis was generally pleased with the result. He felt a 2-1 final would have been a better reflection of the match.

Not Your Father's Arsenal-Chelsea

Romelu; It's good to be back

The final was only 0-2 but that score might flatter Arsenal.  Possession was 35/65, shots were 6/22 and xG was .8-3.0.  Welcome back Romelu Lukaku; he had a goal and an 8.2 rating in his return to the EPL.  On the EPL site, he got Player of the Match but as good as he was, we would have gone with Reece James for his goal and assist and a 9.0 rating.  

Mikel Arteta rockets to the top of the Sack Race, well ahead of Hasenhuttl, Munoz, Vieira, Bruce and Dyche.

Spoke Too Soon?

Because we were watching the BFS Derby, we couldn't take in what might have been the best match of the week, the 2-2 draw between Leeds - Everton.  Slightly embarrassed after singing the praises of Benitez in last week's post.  Twice the Toffees were up and twice Leeds came back.  I take a little comfort that 538 did have Leeds as slight favorite here.  Also, there is this glass is 7/8ths full analysis that notes the defense is shorthanded and that Benitez has only been there six weeks.

Blowouts Realized and Unrealized

We labeled three matches as potential blowouts. We'd have to say that prediction had mixed results, at best.  Man City did make short work of Norwich with a 5-0 win; at 538 they have Norwich with .05 expected goals.  Liverpool were clearly the better side in a 2-0 win and weren't all that pressed by Burnley.  Except, the game was still just 1-0 until late.  A second goal in the 69th minute allowed the Anfield faithful to take a deep breath.  Harvey Elliott played all 90 minutes and had a 6.9 rating.  

Man United didn't even get the W.  I did not see the match but the stats suggest they might have been a bit unlucky. 

West Ham - Leicester was not scheduled to be a blowout but a red card for Ayoze Perez meant the Hammers got to play 50 minutes with a man advantage.  The 4-1 final tells us they used it wisely.  

Atwell Must Not Have Gotten the Memo

Cool jerseys guys

Before the season, we heard about new instructions to referees related to offsides, handballs and
penalties.  The "memo" is here.  Proceed to the Wolves - Spurs match on Sunday. In the 8th minute, Alli runs onto a through ball from Regulon and ends up with "contacting" keeper Sa.  You can see the play here.  First of all, the contact is Alli dragging his leg over Sa.  Second, note the different directions of the ball and Alli.  Third, didn't we just read a memo about how "It's not sufficient to just say there was contact."  Also too, anytime the announcer says "the attacker was very clever there" in reference to a PK,  your antenna should go up.  Apparently between the time this happened and a shoulder-to-shoulder challenge minutes later in the Spurs box, Atwell did get the memo, correctly letting the play go.  

Wolves did not make Nuno's homecoming comfortable, but they just didn't have quality finishing to get even a draw, as Alli's PK was the only goal of the match.  Spurs have matching 1-0 wins and have yet to concede a goal.  Nuno must be doing something right.  Also, maybe Spurs deserve the win for the new away kit alone.

The week got even better for Spurs with news that Harry Kane would be staying in London in this year.

Elsewhere

The 0-0 draw between Crystal Palace and Brentford does sound like two sides that may be in for a long season.  Yeah, I know Brentford have four points and Newcastle none so I probably shouldn't be poking fun.  The Brighton Watford contest wasn't as bad as we expected but we still fault the schedulers for going with that one over Leeds Everton.  

Now I Really Don't Carabao It Cup

Newcastle had the run of play over Burnley but again could not score.  In the League Cup, they right to kicks from the spot.  Marksmen Almiron and St. Maximin both missed and the Magpies went down 3-4.  Newcastle join Crystal Palace has the only EPL teams already gone; the Eagles also lost to an top division side - Brentford.   

I do care about Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League (in that order) but don't have time to go through all of that right now.  Basically each has completed their earlier qualification rounds and are proceeding to group stage play.  

 No, I Mentioned the Bisque

For 86 minutes on Saturday, it looked like the best part of the trip to Subaru Park was going to be the sausage sandwich and Sterling Pig pilsner.  Despite having the lion's share of possession, the Union were down 0-1 late thanks to a well-timed Montreal counterattack in first half stoppage time (second time today for that crap).  Despite getting the ball into dangerous positions, they weren't getting shots on target; some were blocked but sometimes an appetizing cross was left, well, uneaten.  For at least the second time this season, Jim Curtin determined that 0-2 was only marginally worse than 0-1 so he subbed out defender Olivier Mbaizo for midfielder Quinn O'Sullivan.  And it worked again. Jack Elliott, who's ball skills and passing bely his status as a center defender, found O'Sullivan at the top of the box (you never score from there) and the youngster buried the shot.  We make it this week's Runnerup YoutubeableMoment.

The advanced stats say the 1-1 draw was fair result here and that's probably right.  Not a great result as the Union were strong favorites for this one and the three points would have put some distance between the Union and the playoff hopefuls.  It's true that Montreal not getting all three points was helpful in that they didn't gain any ground.  On the other hand, the result demonstrates that this year the Union's focus will be on making the playoffs and getting as good a seed as possible, not winning the Supporters Shield.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve:  What do you call an attempted Union through ball?

Jeff K:  A goal kick for the opposition

Does This Say Union or What?

Somethings are difficult for a franchise that has only been around for 12 years.  Like the Ring of Honor has one name - Sebastien LeToux.  More like a Dot of Honor. Last Saturday the Union had Alumni Night.  Ray Gaddis was there.  Fred was there.  Ryan Richter was there.  Wait, Ryan Richter?  Jeff K and I were stumped.  Turns out Richter was with the Union in 2011 but he never appeared in an MLS game.  Richter did go on to play for Toronto FC and also played for several USL clubs.  So, we're not questioning his soccer chops, we just thought the Union alumni tag was a bit thin.  Like maybe get people that actually appeared in a game.

Another Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve (late in first half with Union and Montreal level at 0-0): At 45 minutes I said to Jeff K, I just hope they don't do what Newcastle did.  A minute later...

Dennis: So you take full responsibility for the goal.  Got it.

The Coming Weeks - CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers Alert

Not sure I'll be able to post next week so we'll take a look out for the next few weeks.

All the EPL matches are crammed into Saturday and Sunday.  Some good stuff but we are squarely focused on Newcastle - Southampton.  Silly to think that a Week 3 match is critical except this is the type of fixture from which the Magpies need at least a point.  On Peacock Saturday at 10 with me on the road so not sure if I'll get to see it live.  

As to the good stuff, Man City host Arsenal at 7:30 on Saturday morning (Peacock).  Not a great place for Arteta to go to right the ship; 538 has that at 69% for City, 12% for Arsenal, 19% draw.  The feature match at 12:30 on NBC looks like a feature match this week - Liverpool vs Chelsea.  The Reds are slight favorite over the Blues, probably because it's at Anfield.  

The other undefeated sides have a good chance to stay that way.  Spurs host Watford on Sunday at 9 (Peacock) while West Ham have a home match against Crystal Palace Saturday at 10 (Peacock).  Oh, sorry Brighton, didn't even notice you there sitting undefeated.  Still, facing Everton at home (Saturday at 10 on NBCSN), a win is not out of the question.

Wolves have (out) played Leicester and Tottenham so far and all they have to show for it is a pair of 0-1 losses.  Doesn't get any easier either as they host Man United on Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN.  Every reason to think this will be a good watch for the neutral.  Aston Villa continue their relatively easy opening with a home match against Brentford (Saturday at 10 on CNBC).   Rounding out the schedule is Norwich-Leicester (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) and Burnley-Leeds (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN).

In a perfect world, we'd watch Man City-Arsenal, Newcastle-Southampton, Liverpool-Chelsea on Saturday, then Tottenham-Watford and Wolves-Man United on Sunday.  Neutrals might want to sub out Newcastle for Brighton-Everton.

Saturday night is another six-pointer for the Union as they travel south to face DC United (8 pm on PHL-17).  We may have to be satisfied with a draw here.

The Hexagon Is Now An Octagon

The last step of CONCACAF used to be a six-team round robin affair.  Now there are eight.  You play each country - home and away - and the top three go to Qatar, while fourth place has a play-in opportunity.  Details can be had here.  Because BFS might not post next week, we draw your attention to the fact that the USMNT will have three matches during the upcoming international break.  They face El Salvador away next Thursday (9/2), Canada at home on Sunday (9/5) and head back south to face Honduras on Wednesday (9/8).  That seems like a brutal schedule - three matches in seven days with significant travel.  Depth might be important.  Not sure about TV coverage but Paramount+ will definitely have the games.  A quick search yielded disappointingly little in the way of predictions but I did find this.

Forecast calls for soccer, lots of it.

Oh To Be A Neutral

What a great weekend to be an unaffiliated fan of the EPL, for whom a match is judged by entertainment value rather than a specific result.  Some of us were not so lucky.  Still, there are probably some happy faces among our readers.  And the Union got a tasty win as well.

'Tis Better to Have Led and Lost Than Never to Have Led at All

Joe can't save us this time - Author of many of last year's
 late game heroics - Joe Willock - was not in uniform
 because the transfer was completed so late

Eff Shakespeare. And the horse he rode in on.  The fact that Newcastle were up - twice in fact - on West Ham does nothing to make the 2-4 final feel any better than an 0-2 loss.  An early goal, some excellent counterattacking and great crosses from Allan Saint-Maximin and Matt Ritchie gave the Magpies a 2-1 halftime lead.  It was fun while it lasted.  The Hammers got the equalizer by the 53rd minute, then added two more in the 63rd and 66th minutes.  The first of those was particularly galling in that it was the result of a soft PK call, which PK was saved by Freddie Woodman but the rebound was put away by Tomas Soucek.  No, the second half was not pretty at all.

Many jumped immediately on Emil Krafth's performance at center back, with some reason.  Not sure what the thinking was to start him there anyway, he's a wing back.  But it's not like Fernandez and Clark were that much better.  I never found out why Lascelles didn't start; Schar wasn't in because he's not fit yet.  Matt Ritchie contributed to the goal but he failed to go with Soucek on the PK rebound and was beaten other times as well.  Shelvey wasn't good either.  This was a team suck.  

Last spring Newcastle's resurgence at least partly coincided with Jacob Murphy and Matt Ritchie getting regular time in the wingback slots.  But if the defense is this leaky, their attacking focus may be a luxury we can't afford.  I won't wimp out here - I would start a back three of Lascelles, Fernandez and Schar (if fit, Clark if not), Murphy and Ritchie at wingbacks, midfield of Almiron, Hayden (or S Longstaff?) and Willock, with ASM and Wilson up top.  If we get ripped up again, we'll have to go back to more defensive wingbacks.  

Louise Taylor of The Guardian offered a succinct and accurate summary of last year, noting that Newcastle: 

were often excruciating to watch as they ground their way to a slightly flattering 12th."

I know it's only one match and West Ham are projected to be a top ten side but it already feels like deja vu all over again.

Snatching A Close One from the Jaws of a Blowout

For about 70 minutes, Aston Villa's performance at Watford was a massive let-down. The scoreline (0-3) was bad enough but worse was how easily they were getting chewed up and how out-of-sync everything looked.  That Grealish was gone and Watkins was out with an injury could explain some of it.  More generously, maybe Dean Smith hadn't quite figured out how to put the new pieces together.  Certainly Matt Targett was exposed on the left side; wonder how much of that was lack of help from Nakamba and Ashley "No Longer" Young.  Buendia didn't add much (anything?) to the attack.  Things got better with Leon Bailey's entrance at 60 minutes.  The Villans got one back in the 70th minute and were on the front foot the rest of the way.  A stoppage time PK made the final 2-3; arguably a draw was probably a fair result here.  On balance, I think once Dean Smith gets the balance right, this will be a fun team to watch.

Who Needed Harry More?

Turns out it was Man City.  Various developments meant that Harry Kane dressed for neither Tottenham or Man City on Sunday.  And what a match it was.  City had a clear possession edge which didn't translate into any goals.  Spurs were lively in the counterattack so this was not one way traffic.  Early in the second half, Bergwijn started one of those counters, then fed Son Heung-min down the right hand side.  Son's finish was sublime.  You can see the whole play as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  In some ways though, the YouTubeableMoment was the rest of the match.  Unlike with Mourinho, Spurs kept attacking.  And also unlike with the Special One, the team played with heart and soul that's been missing.  They deserved the 1-0 and all three points.

Now, what happens with Harry?  Some update here.  

A Moment 74 Years in the Making

You would cry too if this happened to you: a win in your
team's first appearance in the top division in 74 years

Gunner fans will be forgiven for not sharing in the excitement, but the return of first division football to Brentford went like dream.  Recall that this is a club that last appeared in the top division in 1946-47.  The stadium was rocking, even more so when Sergi Canos put the Bees up in the 22nd minute.  Arsenal had some chances but could not break through.  When Christian Norgaard doubled the lead at 73 minutes, a win first time out looked real.  At full time, it was a tear-stained lovefest.  The players and manager Thomas Frank took a victory lap, occasionally heading to the stands to shake hands.    For me the moment is captured by the image on the right - a long-time fan with tears streaming down his face.  Think about the loyalty of  the fans who stayed with Brentford, located in West London. All these years they rooted for a lower division club when there were any number of Premier League teams basically just around the corner.  Hell, Chelsea is only seven miles away. The powers-that-be should pay attention to this stuff.  It's why the reaction to the proposed Super League was so swift and intense.   

Uh Oh, Again

Last year we maybe got ahead of ourselves with early season excitement about a revamped Everton side.  After a hot start, they slid steadily down the table, ending up 10th.  Never one to learn from my mistakes, I will again suggest we pay attention to the Toffees.  This is based mostly on my admiration for the work of Rafa Benitez, their new manager.  Following him during his tenure at Newcastle, I can appreciate both his ability to judge talent and his tactical acumen.  He will get the most out of what he has and he has plenty to work with here.  

Elsewhere

Top table denizens Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea got clear wins in their openers, though none faced what would be considered formidable opposition.  Liverpool took their time but eventually dispatched Norwich 3-0.  Chelsea coasted past Crystal Palace, also 3-0.  Sure it's early but the Canaries and the Eagles are probably in for a relegation fight.  Leeds are like a chicken with its head cut off - they could be down by three or four goals but they still run around like they have a chance.  It does make for entertaining football so even though Man United blew them out 5-1, it was hard to turn away.

Brighton got two goals late to take a 2-1 win over Burnley; yeah, that'll leave a mark.  The stat sheet says maybe Wolves deserve a draw but the scoreline was 1-0 for Leicester.  Best news there was that Raul Jimenez made his first start since fracturing his skull last November.

Conversation That Didn't Take Place But Could Have

Dennis: Did you say Brentford have a Jedi knight at striker?

Steve: No, I said the Forss is with them

Conversation That Didn't Take Place and Did

Dennis: Looking at these full stadiums makes me wonder how dead the south will be once college football starts

Steve: Literally or figuratively?  Too soon?

Dennis: Both and no

Forest Green Sighting!

Liverpool's Harvey Elliott - He looks better in a
Forest Green kit (Photo - Andrew Powell Getty Images)

The Liverpool match gave me a chance to see my latest Forest Green signing Harvey Elliott.  In Football Manager, Liverpool were willing to let me have him on a season-long loan for what seems like an extremely reasonable $300,000.  In real life, he is certainly full of run.  In virtual life through two matches he's had ratings of 8.4 and 7.3 with a goal and numerous chances created.  Making me look good.

So in my virtual world, Forest Green are now in the Championship Division looking at long odds to do well.  Within the game itself, the oddmakers project us to finish 22nd out of 24, meaning we get relegated.  In Genie Scout, a scouting utility created for FM players, we are ranked 19th; at least that would keep us in the division.  In my previous tenure with Chester, I recall that we ended up being a "surprise package," earning promotion to the premier league at the first time of asking.  Maybe we can do it again.

Answer to Last Week's Trivia Question

Start Spreadin' the News

The Union got a much needed 1-0 win over NYCFC at a windy but mostly dry Subaru Park on Wednesday night.  Neither side was big on creating chances, though NY missed a couple of good ones.  The stats say NY was the better side but to my eyes the Union looked in it the whole way.   A solid performance from the back line, an excellent yellow cardless effort from Martinez, and tireless work from Flach. The game winner from Bedoya can be seen here; great cross from Wagner and Bedoya figures out where he needs to be to emphatically put it away.  An aside, WTF is Johnson doing raising his arm calling for offside?  That wasn't even close.  Dude, that's embarrassing.

A peep at the standings shows just how important that win was.  Despite the W, they are 4th in the table, but 5th in points per game.  A loss would have put them more clearly into the group fighting for a playoff berth as opposed to the group with hopes of a second place finish.  I say second because at 46 points, New England are unlikely to be caught at this point.

In Praise of Ted Lasso

BFS Historical Consultant Mackenzie W offers a reason why Ted Lasso is so great:

The antidote to toxic masculinity is empathetic masculinity, which is what Ted Lasso brings to his role as coach

Fillebrown Derby

Some decent matches for Week 2, but here at the offices of BFS, the focus will be on Aston Villa - Newcastle.  All signs point to an AVL win; 538 has it at 49% AVL, 27% NEW, 24% draw.  The good news for the Magpies is we expect to have Joe Willock in the starting eleven.  You can see the match at 10 am Saturday on NBCSN.

There is a London derby too, with Arsenal hosting Chelsea at 11:30 Sunday NBCSN.  These two sides have been heading in opposite directions for a while now.  Also intriguing is Monday's 3 pm game on NBCSN between West Ham and Leicester, two of the sides we might see flirt with a top four finish and definitely looking good for 5th-8th finish.  If I wasn't otherwise occupied with Newcastle - Aston Villa, might be inclined to check out Leeds - Everton - could be a fun match to watch from start to finish. Nuno Espirito Santo will find out if you can go home again as he takes Tottenham on the road to face Wolves (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN).

There's an early relegation showdown Saturday at 10 on Peacock between Crystal Palace and Brentford.  Also some potential blowouts - Liverpool - Burnley (7:30 Saturday on Peacock), Man City - Norwich (10 am Saturday on USA, Southampton - Man United  (Sunday at 9 on Peacock)

No offense intended but in what world would Brighton - Watford be considered the feature match worthy of the Saturday 12:30 slot on NBC?  

I'll be back at Subaru Park Saturday night to see the Union take on Montreal (8pm on PHL-17). The Impact, sorry, CF Montreal, are in the chase pack, just on the good side of the playoff break point.  Three points are important here to keep us in the hunt for second and out of the playoff scramble.

I hate to admit how much other stuff I've been getting done in the absence of mid-week EPL action.

Let the Games Begin

After a few months of "subsisting on scraps" like the Euro Champions, Gold Cup, Tokyo Olympics and the MLS,  we have the EPL back.  The bad news is that they appear to have largely abandoned the mid-week fixtures that we came to rely on in the last year or so.  Meanwhile, the Union had two tough away matches

A Good Loss?

Listening to and reading the pundits, one might conclude that the Union's 1-2 loss to the Revolution was an awesome achievement.  I kid to some extent but there was a lot of gushing about how well things worked out up there.  There was a long list of reasons that this was a tough fixture.  Second match of the week, on the road, on turf, against the first place team, etc.  In addition, Jim Curtin was adamant about rotating the squad in advance of Thursday's CONCACAF Champions League semi-final against Club America.  Thus, we saw a lot of the kids, most of the first teamers played less than 60 minutes.  Oh, and Curtin put them out in an unfamiliar 3-4-2-1.  

High School Yearbook photo for Paxten Aaronson

And in fact, it was a solid performance.  The kids played well and Paxten Aaronson got his first professional goal.  Actually, we can't leave it at that because this was no simple goal.  Check out the settle, the touch to get clear and the scorching finish in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Nice work; they should show it at his high school graduation next year.  O'Sullivan and McGlynn weren't bad either and Stuart Findlay was okay at the back; all had better ratings than most of the regulars.  New England keeper and USMNT star Matt Turner was put to work several times, enough that he took home Player of the Match.  This was a close contest and a draw would have been a fair reflection of the match.  So, yes, they played the kids, rested the regulars and still nearly came away with a draw.  Yes, it could have been a blow out.  Yes, they did get several good things out of the game.  But one of them wasn't a point.  

A Good Halftime Deficit?

Of course, the whole point of the exercise in New England was to have our best out there for the CONCACAF Champions League match to ensure that the tie wouldn't be out of reach when they play the second leg back in Philly in September.  And it worked, sort of.  The first half was pretty much all Club America and they did get a goal on a deflection off Gazdag.  Second half was much tighter and there were signs that the Union might get an away goal or at least come away with just an 0-1 loss. That hope was ruined by some - IMHO - re-refereeing by Walter Ramirez.  Jose Martinez coughed the ball up deep in Union territory, then compounded his error with a questionable challenge in the box.  Ramirez was right there and emphatically signaled no foul.  Did I mention he emphatically spread his arms like an MLB umpire making the safe sign?  VAR Drew Fisher suggested he look at it again.  Not clear and obvious to me and that it took Ramirez and good minute or two to change his mind suggests it was not clear and obvious to him either.  Except he changed the call.  Spot kick converted and now the deficit is 0-2 heading back to Philly.

At 0-1, I was feeling like the strategy of going with the kids in New England at the risk of getting no points was probably worth it.  Less happy that it's a two goal deficit but with less than our best out there, maybe it would have been 0-3 or worse.   This was a good showing on the national stage and the match is by no means over.  The problem is that a 3-1 win at Subaru Park won't be enough now given the away goal rule.  

A New Hope

Well, for some clubs anyway.  The 2021-22 EPL season kicks off, auspiciously on Friday the 13th.  As things stand, this could be the first "normal" season season since 2018-2019.  The schedule isn't compressed, there'll be fans in the stands, and Jose Mourinho is coaching somewhere other than the EPL.  

We'll review the league more broadly in a minute but first a word about Newcastle.  I see two possibilities this year.  One, they get off to a decent start and stay a step ahead of the relegation battle but don't threaten seriously for a top ten finish.  This is the good scenario.  In the other, they get off to poor start, spend way too much of the season in or close to the relegation zone before making a narrow escape with a decent finish.  So going in, the best thing I can say is that I'm cautiously optimistic they won't get relegated.  What a fricking low bar.  

This outpouring of optimism is only possible because today Newcastle finally got the Joe Willock deal over the line.  Mind you, this does not improve the team over last year, merely keeps them where they were - a solid 12-16th place team.

Elsewhere, the sun is shining.  I need only look at developments in Birmingham, where Aston Villa, despite losing their talisman Jack Grealish, have every reason to think they can improve on last year's 11th place finish.  How is this possible?  Well, basically they replaced Grealish - who you'll recall was out for a chunk of last season anyway - with three players, including Emi Buendia, Leon Bailey and Danny Ings who provide creativity, skills and goal scoring potential.  They added Axel Tuanzebe to shore up the defense as well.  They are the anti-Newcastle, all the ambition that my club fails to show.

I did a survey of table predictions that included The Guardian, CBS, NBC, The Bleacher Report, GiveMeSport, 442, Pundit Arena, The Bank, the Supercomputer, Paddy Power and 538.  The table below summarizes the 11 predictions

Man City haven't landed Harry Kane yet but even without him, people are pretty much handing the Citizens the title.  Not hard to understand that.  Most pundits see Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United fighting for the other top four slots. In fact, in the 11 projections, none had any other sides in the top four.  Leicester, Arsenal and Tottenham get most of the picks for 5th to 7th.

The mid-table could be Everton, Leeds, West Ham and Aston Villa.  The pundits seem quite confused about Brighton, picking them as high as 9th but as low as 19th and relegation; that's the biggest spread by far.  Crystal Palace could be an enigma too, as many see them as a serious relegation candidate while others have them pegged as the Newcastle of London.  Newcastle average out at 14th with a high and low of 12th and 16th.  Didn't need to do the math to see that one coming.

Of the newcomers, Watford look DOA, while Brentford and Norwich have some backers.  Still, they seem likely to struggle to stay up.  I was mildly surprised with Southampton at 15th.  Ings and Bertrand are gone and Vestergaard may be on his way to Leicester.  The Saints were 14th last year and don't seem to have gotten better.

There are of course plenty of articles out there previewing the season.  My favorite series continues to come from The Guardian.  You can see Watford's writeup here; the tab on the left allows you to scroll through all the teams.  The Trending Topics section at the bottom of each article is at once enlightening and hilarious.  A couple of examples:

“If we don’t get another striker in and Wilson gets injured we’ll be relegated.” (Newcastle)

“Can we stop the incessant 9-0 chat?” (Southampton)

 

Who's In Charge Here?

Can you match the manager with the club?  

Answers next week.

Religion Is Dead?

Check out the final line in this article from The Guardian:

There are not currently any suitors for Jesus.

Your DVR Can't Save You Now

As we hinted at the top, the EPL is moving back to concurrent versus sequential scheduling, which means it's much harder to see most/all of the games without spoilers.  Even judicious use of the DVR will require tricks like towels over the corner of the screen if you don't want you to see other scores.  You may have to make choices.  We'll offer what help we can.

Friday is easy.  Stop working - or continue not working - at 3 pm and watch the season opener between Brentford and Arsenal on NBCSN.  Might not be a great match but on a Friday afternoon with temps in the high 90's, what else you gonna too?

Those 7:30 Saturday morning fixtures are back.  This week it's Man United vs Leeds on NBCSN.  At 538, they suggest that Man United is a heavy favorite but last year Leeds generally put up a good effort.  At 10 am, you have five to choose from.  Three are on Peacock - Burnley v Brighton, Chelsea v Crystal Palace and Watford v Aston Villa.  Everton-Southampton is on NBCSN while Leicester - Wolves is on USA.  We'll probably go with check out the Grealishless Aston Villa to see how things go with the new recruits.  If you're looking for a tight contest, Burnley-Brighton might be your best choice.

The NBC feature match at 12:30 is Norwich versus Liverpool.  That doesn't look to be a close one.

Sunday has two of interest to us.  At 9 Newcastle host West Ham on NBCSN and at 11:30 Man City travel to London to face Spurs.  We're expecting a close one at St. James' Park and certainly have some hopes of at least a point.  Tottenham will have their hands full.

The Union have the weekend off but have a tough midweek contest at home vs NYCFC.  Need the points but a draw is probably more realistic.

Good news is you don't have to worry about the weekends anymore.  They are booked solid for the near future.

Hardware of Different Colors

Both the US national teams came away with medals from their recent competition, although the colors might be reversed from earlier expectations.  The Union get four points from two matches.  Man City continue to stockpile talent while Newcastle can't close on their number one priority.

US Beat Mexico While Qatar Gently Weeps (apologies to The Beatles and hat tip to Michael B)

The USMNT adopted a risky formula for the Gold Cup knockout rounds - keep a clean sheet and score late.  But it worked.  Against Qatar in the semi, the strategy meant being outplayed in the first half and relying on a big save from keeper Thomas Middleditch Matt Turner.  Also, meant surviving a PK in the second half - Turner didn't even have to make the save as the ball soared over the crossbar.  A trio of subs combined for the game winner in the 86th minute as passes Eryk Williamson and Nicholas Joe Akini  Gioacchini set up Gyasi Zardes.  

Mostly more of the same in the final, though I would argue that the US weren't outplayed as much as they were in the semi, especially in the second half.  Doesn't mean that Turner wasn't call upon for a key save.  Great entertainment - all the snarl you'd like to see in contest between these two rivals.  Hector Martinez had a busy night, whistling the teams for 51 fouls, 31 by the US.  Don't recall feeling that things were going to boil over though.  Nobody scored in regulation so they went to extra time.  Just as we were ready to accept that this one would be decided by kicks from the spot,  Kellyn Acosta (who had an awesome game/tournament) launched a free kick into the box that defender Miles Robinson deftly headed in for what would be the game winner. 

Separated at birth?
 Middleditch (top) and Turner

We'll make that this week's YouTubeableMoment; key question is whether Robinson intended to take his shirt off but stopped because he didn't want a yellow card or he was mobbed too quickly by his teammates.

We'll discuss competition management theory in more detail below but this was a win-win for Berhalter and the USMNT.  We don't have to call it the JV or the B-team or anything like that but you do have to acknowledge that some of our better players were not rostered for this competition.  And it looks like a brilliant decision.  A new group of younger players got international experience and not just in friendlies, but in nasty, physical contests with hardware on the line.  This has to be a plus when we get to World Cup qualifying in the fall.  Oh, and they got gold anyway.  Winning.

It's Not Superstition If It Works

We were in Bethesda on Thursday and took in the Gold Cup semi vs Qatar in the hotel bar.  When the PK was called, Laura's sister Sandy headed to the bathroom.  I was adamant that she couldn't leave until the kick was taken - bad karma.  She reluctantly agreed to wait.  After the PK was missed and she sped off, the guy sitting behind us who was also watching called out "Thanks, Sandy."  Obviously he appreciated her effort as well.

No, Canada 

Things weren't as great for the USWNT in Japan.  They continued a string of flat performances and fell 0-1 to Canada.  While the PK that decided things was too much re-refereeing for my taste, the US did nothing to deserve the win anyway.  Just not good enough so the US played Australia for the bronze medal.  Here they looked more like the team we remember.  A cheeky goal off a corner by Rapinoe which she followed up with great volley shot 13 minutes later.  Two from Carli Lloyd gave the US a 4-1 lead by the 51st minute.  Things got a touch hairy from there as the Aussies got one back quickly, hit the post shortly after and added one more in stoppage time to keep things in doubt until the final whistle.  More than the score, this was the first time the team looked anything like what we've come to expect.

On the one hand, bronze looks like the appropriate color medal for performance in this tournament.  The problem is the expectation that the only acceptable outcome is gold.  And this team was not of that standard.  Head coach Vlatko Andonovski took the opposite route than Berhalter - sticking with the most veteran team possible.  Hard to criticize him for that - the Olympics are several levels above the Gold Cup in terms of prestige and importance.  He also took pains to rotate players, sometimes making substitutions that didn't make much sense.  Maybe he overthought that aspect.  On the other hand, look at the performance in bronze medal match; would the team have been totally gassed and unable to compete without the rotation throughout the competition?   

What is clear though is that the core of the team we've watched since 2015 probably has played their final international competition.  The World Cup is in just two years but even that is probably too far away.  I would be reluctant to pink slip Andonovski off of this performance but he has serious work to do before 2023.

Four Should Have Been Six

The Union drew 1-1 with Chicago and easily pinned back Toronto 3-0.  Four points sounds good until you note that these were both home games against teams far down in the table.  It gets worse when you hear that the Union were up a man from 34 minutes on against Chicago but could not find a game winner.  Some of that feels unlikely - expected goals were 2.7 - .45.  But they didn't look all that dominant after the sending off.  A frustrating watch.

Things were much better Wednesday night as the boys got busy early.  The back of the neck header from Glesnes was a touch lucky but the goal was certainly deserved.  The pressure continued and a marvelous through ball from Jack Elliott sent Santos in alone on the Toronto keeper, who didn't get ball but did get Santos; Gazdag efficiently dispatched the PK.  Minutes later Santos got one for himself.  The only thing I remember of note from that point on was the ridiculous PK call on Jack Elliott, who never touched the attacker.   The replay here isn't as clear as the one we saw on the stadium screen but it was the attacker who actually kicked Elliott.  In a classic case of "ball don't lie," the take was crappy and Blake saved it to preserve the clean sheet.

Glass half full analysis is that the Union are in third, one point behind second place Orlando.  Glass half empty view is that fourth and fifth place Nashville and New York City have more points per game.  Also, as discussed in more detail here, Jamiro Monteiro is likely heading to Holland or Belgium in an attempt to be closer to his family.  The Gazdag signing takes much of the sting out of this transfer.

Worst Draft Excluder Evah

Even I Almost anybody can be an MLS level draft excluder.  All you have to do is lie down behind the wall on a free kick and be willing to let the ball hit you if the shooter goes low.   I mean, it's just not that hard.  Maybe not.  Check out the Fire's Fabian Herbers on Kai Wagner's free kick here.  I can't tell whether he never stretched out completely, or worse, came up from the prone position before the kick was taken.  In any case, the wall jumped, Wagner shot low and the ball got past Herbers for a goal.  That simply cannot happen.  All you have to do is lie down on the job.  Or as Mackenzie might say, "Dude, you had one job."

Transfer Follies

With the start of the 2021-22 season less than a week away, it's been a quiet summer transfer window to date, with a few notable exceptions.   Grealish to Man City is big.  Villa, anticipating the loss, have been active, adding Buendia, Bailey and Ings.  Man United got Sancho.  Kane may or may not be going to Man City.  Ah, but one thing is constant.  Newcastle hasn't done sh...squat.  The primary target has been getting Joe Willock back, hopefully on a permanent basis.  The reported transfer fee of £22-25 million seems reasonably; the problem may be that Arsenal can't make their mind up.  And Villa look to have taken the lead on another Magpie target, Axel Tuanzebe.  I keep hearing talk of Aaron Ramsey coming to Newcastle but that seems crazy; no way Ashley would agree to pay his wage bill.  

I have begun to survey the EPL predictions and hope to report the results of my research in next Friday's post.  Not optimistic heading into the season.  Maybe only Southampton of the returning sides has fallen below Newcastle at this point.  Even with Willock, we are probably no better than 15th.

Easy Weekend

For BFS I mean.  The Union have to travel to face New England at Gillette Stadium, second only to Yankee Stadium in MLS venues I dislike.  They are the top team in the conference so this will not be easy; 538 has 50% for NE win, 23% for draw so a point would be awesome.  Match is at 6 pm and though Gil Scott Heron said The Revolution Will Not Be Televised, you can catch this one on PHL 17 or ESPN+.