The Thirteen Days of Football

We hope you got to take in a game or 12 over the last few weeks.  We certainly did.  So how did your team fare in this congested period?  Once again we turn to the BFS exclusive holiday period rankings based on the following scale.

	You got a Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time - and you didn't even ask for one!
	It's A Wonderful Life
	Nice enough but how many times can you watch White Christmas?
	The Grinch stole your Christmas
	Only Hans Gruber had a worse Christmas than you

We have added a new feature this year - percentage of expected points collected.  We used the 538 predictions to get expected points.  For example, on New Year's Day, Burnley were given a 50% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 25% chance, with a 25% chance of a tie.  So Villa's expected points were .25*3 + .25*1 = 1.  It's a way of adjusting for the degree of difficulty given each team's schedule.  The table below shows both the percentage of total possible points and percentage of expected points for the matches between 12/21 and 1/2.

Points  % Available        % Expected Southampton 10 83% 235% Watford 10 83% 185% Wolverhampton 6 50% 154% Liverpool 9 100% 132% Everton 7 58% 129% Sheffield United 4 33% 128% Leicester City 6 50% 121% Aston Villa 6 50% 110% Arsenal 5 42% 104% Chelsea 7 58% 97% Crystal Palace 5 42% 96% Manchester City 9 75% 92% Manchester United 6 50% 89% Brighton and Hove Albion 4 33% 82% West Ham United 3 33% 80% Newcastle 3 25% 70% Burnley 3 25% 61% Tottenham Hotspur 4 33% 54% Norwich City 2 17% 46% AFC Bournemouth 1 8% 19%

Looking at sides of particular interest at BFS:

Newcastle   

Totally worth a yellow for removing the jersey
Photo: Richard Sellers/Getty

Yes, my expectations were low given the matches with Man United and Leicester but they probably should have been able squeeze a draw out of a home match with Everton.  The good news is that the three points they got in a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace came on Almiron's first goal as a Magpie. The timing couldn't have been better as Newcastle were looking at a draw - at best - until this bolt from the blue.  We'll make it one of this week's multiple YouTubeableMoments.  What I like about this video is you get a sense of how much the St. James' faithful really want this guy to succeed.  The silver lining about this streak is that hopefully Newcastle management are under no illusions about the quality of this team and will take steps accordingly.  I note with alarm that despite their 25 points, 538 still lists the Magpies with a 25% chance of relegation.  

Aston Villa 

Dennis might disagree given their schedule and how awful they looked but they actually did a little better than expected.  Probably doesn't feel so good because relegation rivals Southampton and Watford did have an awesome holiday period, partly at the Villans' expense.  No doubt they looked awful versus Southampton and Watford and frankly weren't that good even in victory over Norwich.  But the 2-1 win over Burnley at Turf Moor was like finding a wrapped present behind the Christmas tree after you thought you had opened everything.  Might have been a pyrrhic win given that forward Wesley and keeper Heaton were injured.  Another side that needs the January transfer window.

Tottenham  

I originally had two here but upon further review, this was a disastrous stretch for Spurs. The holidays included a big loss to Chelsea when fourth place was in view, a sloppy draw to Norwich and an even uglier loss to Southampton.  They did get three in a win over Brighton but the total haul for the four games just won't cut it for a team with Champions League ambitions.  Also, the Special One got a yellow on New Year's Day.  But he was "contrite" about it:   

“I think the yellow card was fair as I was rude, but I was rude with an idiot. But I clearly deserved the card I was rude.”

And Harry Kane got hurt as well.  Yeah, this was a one-Santa holiday.

Man United 

Jeff H abandoned their match against Arsenal to watch the dog show; that sums up the Red Devils holiday action pretty well.  So they beat Newcastle and Burnley but fell to Watford and Arsenal.  They looked very pedestrian against Arsenal, like they could have played for another 90 minutes but still might not have scored.

Arsenal 

Very mixed results for the Gunners and I'm slightly puzzled by their 104% score on just five points.    They were minutes away from a big win over Chelsea before losing 1-2 but they were underdogs in that one.  And draws with Everton and Bournemouth?  They were road games so expectations are lower.  Clearly the 2-0 win over Man United on New Year's Day rescued what would have been an awful holiday.

Other noteworthy performances

Southampton 

They got three wins and a draw, beating both Chelsea and Tottenham in the process.  They moved out the relegation zone all the way to 12th in the table.  Ralph Hasenhuttl, hanging on for dear life at one point, now slips way down in the managerial sack race.

Watford 

The Hornet's road might have been a touch easier but it included wins over Man United and Wolves.  That they still sit 19th in the table is testimony to how wretched their season had been to this point.

Wolves 

The value of risk adjusting the results becomes evident in evaluating Wolves results.  With just six points, including a road loss to Watford, we might otherwise conclude it was not a good holiday for a BFS favorite.  Closer inspection shows they did well given their fixture list.  Yes, they were expected to beat Norwich but they were only prohibitive favorites on the road for that one.  They were huge underdogs hosting Man City but took all three in a thrilling come-from-behind win.  They were huge underdogs at Enfield so the 0-1 loss was hardly unexpected.  And surprisingly, they were very slight underdogs on the road at Watford, meaning the 1-2 loss wasn't totally out of the blue. Same thing for Sheffield United - they did okay with a brutal schedule that also included Liverpool and Man City.

Bournemouth, with one point, clearly got a lump of coal in their stocking.


Random Takeaways

I took a few notes along the way and can look back on some texts, but with so many games, the whole thing becomes a blur.  I am left with random thoughts.

Best game of the holidays - Wolves come back from 0-2 to beat Man City. Rather than a single moment, check out the highlights here. City go down a man, get a goal after Patricio twice stops Sterling on a PK.  I think the link is from Wolves network so the excitement of the comeback is captured well.  Honorable mention to Arsenal - Chelsea.  I'm sure Gunners fans would just as soon forget this as Chelsea score twice in the final minutes to take a 2-1 win.

Watford survive being down a man for 33 minutes against Villa, scoring twice after the sending off and again for 19 minutes against Wolves, holding on for a 2-1 win.  As Dennis says, a goal on the scoreboard is definitely worth more than a man advantage.

There was a spate of offside calls in which the attacker was off by no more than a millimeter.  Dennis and I offer two options to address this.  Dennis says don't allow the VAR to use those lines.  If it's not obvious without the lines, than it can't be an egregious error.  My suggestion is that they use the lines but thicken them by a percent or so; if the two lines overlap, than the margin of error is too small to overturn the call on the field.  Or as we say in the trade, there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

If offside is based on the position of body parts that can score a goal, then I could never be flagged for offside, because there's no way I could score a goal with any body part.

Leicester kinda failed their big test, losing to both  Liverpool and Man City in consecutive matches. And yet, they still occupy second place and look better than any of Chelsea, Man United, Tottenham or Arsenal.

Brighton stole a point from Chelsea with Alireza Jahanbakhsh's amazing bicycle kick; check out the video here.

The opening game of the holiday period - an Everton-Arsenal 0-0 draw - was like opening the first present on Christmas morning to find out it was a pair of socks.

The New Year's Day fixture between Man City and Everton featured Pep Guardiola and Carlos Ancelotti managing against each other.

David Moyes was hired at West Ham and the side celebrated with a 4-0 thrashing of Bournemouth.

Speaking of Bournemouth, Eddie Howe - the longest tenured manager in the EPL - is now listed at 3/1 as the next manager to be sacked.  The Cherries have four points from their last 10 matches.


Christmas Presents

Scott, who gifted me Football Manager some Christmases ago, gave me "The Football Manager Guide to Football Management."  Key quote:

We are all football managers. It's just that some of us haven't been appointed yet.

Ellen and Anna gave me "Encyclopedia Blazertannica: A Suboptimal Guide to Soccer, America's Sport of the Future Since 1972."  In the first entry, the Men in Blazers pose this question:

"...why are so many English-accented broadcasters immediately afforded respect based solely on their accents?"

Are Your Streaming Services Up to Date?

After the glut of holiday games, we now face a virtual viewing blackout.  Unless you have ESPN+, you're out of luck for this weekend's FA Cup matches and the mid-week I Don't Carabao It Cup semi finals.

For the background on the FA Cup, we direct you to this old BFS post.  This weekend's schedule can be found here.  Newcastle are at Rochdale; injuries might make the decision for Steve Bruce as to how many regulars sit this one out.  Aston Villa are at Fulham, Spurs are at Middlesborough, Arsenal host Leeds and Man United play Wolves.  One of these is not like the others.  That is the "beauty" of the FA Cup - that you can get a difficult, Premier League-level match-up in the third round while others around you are playing League One or League Two opponents.  Also note there is a Merseyside derby as Liverpool and Everton face off.  Crazy.

Then we have the first leg of the Carabao Cup semis midweek.  First up is a Manchester derby on Tuesday with United hosting.  Wednesday is Leicester - Aston Villa.  Both are at 3 pm on ESPN+.  Don't miss these matches in what Men In Blazers call the Cuppity Cup Cup, in honor of how many different sponsors it has gone through in its short history.  They also suggest it it the "fifteenth or sixteenth most important trophy" in English football.

But, as the saying goes, everything looks like a meal to a starving man so we will take in more than our share of these matches, because that's all there is right now.

Football for the Holidays

So many matches over so many days!  For most teams this means four games in 12 days.  Even more challenging is that most will have a nasty two-day turnaround between Boxing Day (Thursday 12/26) and Saturday 12/28.

The first set of matches is this Saturday and Sunday.  And we must say, an inviting set of fixtures it is.  Two we'll be focusing on are Man City - Leicester (12:30 Saturday on NBC) and Tottenham - Chelsea (11:30 Sunday on NBCSN).  Leicester have generally done well in the big tests to its status as a top six club but this is a tough assignment.  And Spurs, for all their farting around so far, could move into 4th place with a home win against a decidedly erratic Chelsea squad.

Speaking of erratic, the weekend kicks off at 7:30 Saturday with an up-and-down Arsenal traveling to face Everton.  The Toffees looked to have agreed in principle to bring in Carlo Ancelotti as their permanent manager but that might not be a done deal by Saturday.  Duncan Ferguson has a win and a draw in his role as caretaker manager.

Five matches in the 10 am slot and I think the schedulers picked the wrong one for TV.  I like Wolves as much as anybody but their match with Norwich seems the least interesting of the five on offer.  My attention will be with Newcastle hosting Crystal Palace and that's not a bad choice for a neutral.  But you could also do Brighton - Sheffield United, Bournemouth - Burnley or Aston Villa - Southampton; any of those could be good viewing based on their places in the table.  Sometimes having NBC Gold is worth the price.  Sunday's warm-up match at 9 am is Watford hosting Man United.  Hard to see the Hornets halting the Red Devils' six game unbeaten streak.

Round Two runs Thursday and Friday after Christmas.  Nine matches are on Boxing Day and they save one for Friday.  For Boxing Day you could do up to four live matches spread out from 7:30 am to 3 pm.  As of this writing, the TV schedule was not on the EPL website.  Pretty sure you can count on TV for Tottenham-Brighton at 7:30, Man United - Newcastle at 12:30 and Leicester - Liverpool at 3 pm.  We'll be taking in Aston Villa - Norwich at 10 am here at 6911 as BFS co-founder Dennis will be in the house.  You might find one of the other five choices more interesting.  Friday is giant killer Wolves hosting Man City at 2:45.

Round Three is Saturday and Sunday 12/28-29.  That weekend's best looks to be a London derby featuring Chelsea vs Arsenal Sunday at 9 am.  I'll be interested in how Wolves fare taking on Liverpool just two days after facing Man City; that's at 11:30 on Sunday.  I'll definitely be in for Newcastle - Everton at 10. Again, TV schedule not up but pretty sure on Saturday you'll be able to see Brighton - Bournemouth (7:30), West Ham - Leicester (12:30) and Burnley - Man United (2:45).

Round Four is January 1-2.  Arsenal - Man United at 3 pm on New Year's Day looks pretty good. 

Newcastle's fixtures for the holidays include home to Crystal Palace, away at Man United, home for Everton and home to Leicester.  Despite three home matches, this could be a rather barren period.  Can hope for three maybe this weekend but the holiday haul could be as little as one point.  Ah well, best to remember the Magpies have more points to date than could have been expected.  Christmas is a time of giving.

Eyeballing other teams, I'm not seeing real obvious ball buster or patsy schedules. A notable exception is Aston Villa, who get Southampton, Norwich, Watford, and Burnley.  Those four are 18, 19, 20 and 12 in the table going into the weekend.  I believe the expression is make hay while the sun shines.


Results, or Lack Thereof

Newcastle's Dwight Gayle misses golden opportunity to
level the match with Burnley

First time this season that the result might be considered "unfair" to Newcastle.  Looked to me like the teams were even despite the 1-0 scoreline in favor of Burnley.  Stats at 538 support that view.  The Magpies were definitely undermanned as Shelvey, Saint-Maximin and Almiron were all sidelined due to injury.  Frankly I was surprised that Newcastle made it a close match without those guys.  They were forced into a more direct, Route One, approach without the dribble possession usually offered by Saint-Maximin and Almiron.  Though those two are short on goals and assists, their value to the team was pretty apparent in their absence. 

Elsewhere, we pat ourselves on the back for suggesting Wolves - Spurs was the match to watch.  Just an awesome display of attacking football with both sides getting their chances.  The Molineux crowd was certainly into the game.  Looked like a draw was in the offing before Vertonghen slipped in the game winner in stoppage time.  We'll do a two-part YouTubeableMoment using some fan cam shots.  Here's Traore goal that leveled the match at 1-1.  Part two is Vertonghen's goal.  Love the reactions.

We did need some quality after Saturday's action, though some of it did have drama in one form or another, if only in that the scores were close.  Liverpool took forever to put Watford away in a sleepy 2-0 win.  Hopefully you skipped Burnley - Newcastle as we recommended; that was a snooze.  I watched Crystal Palace play totally disinterested football for 70 minutes against Brighton; after Zaha's goal the Eagles looked poised to steal all three points but the final was 1-1.  Chelsea paid dearly for not putting Bournemouth away earlier as the Cherries sneaked home with a 1-0 win thanks to a stoppage time goal from Dan Gosling.  The goal had initially been waved off for offside but VAR showed it was legit.  Nice flick from Gosling, which you can see here; they don't show the VAR part but my take was he was clearly onside and the goal was correctly allowed.  Leicester dropped two points at home to Norwich, managing only a 1-1 draw.

The "Manager Sack Race" special between Southampton and West Ham was exciting enough, if not high quality.  Somewhat surprised that Hasenhuttl survived the 0-1 loss at home to the Hammers.  Not sure he'll be quite as lucky if Southampton fall to Aston Villa this weekend.  Didn't see the 1-1 draw between Man United and Everton; a home draw couldn't have gone down well for the Red Devil supporters.  While I was watching Newcastle struggle, Dennis was doing the same with Aston Villa, taking in their 0-2 loss to Sheffield United.  And Man City made life uncomfortable for Arsenal, scoring early and often to take a 3-0 road win. 

So Liverpool go into the holidays with a huge 10 point bulge over Leicester, who can now likely hear the footsteps of Man City in third.  Chelsea cling to fourth, just three up on Spurs.  Incredibly, Newcastle are 11th, level on points with Arsenal!?  The bottom three are Southampton, Norwich and Watford; Aston Villa are ahead of Southampton on goal differential.  Let's see what the holiday fixture overdose does to the standings.


The Kids Were Alright (apologies to The Who)

Who's the running back?
  Liverpool reaches deep to field a team against Aston Villa

One suspected the day might be difficult for Liverpool in their quarterfinal Carabao Cup match with Aston Villa as a bunch of teenagers took the field sporting uniform numbers worthy of NFL interior line men (recall the A team was in Qatar for the World Club Cup tournament).  Actually they had the run of play for about 15 minutes.  Even as they were slowly falling behind, the Liverpool youngsters look the better side.  The 0-5 final is a tad harsh.  Aston Villa survived what was clearly a no-win situation for them and advance to the semis to take on Leicester, who beat Everton on PKs.  The other semi will be an extra Manchester Derby as City bested Oxford United 3-1 and United handled Colchester 3-0.  The semis will be two-legged affairs with matches on January 7th and January 28th-29th.  Dennis hopes that Leicester will be more focused on the title race and will also field a B squad for the semis.


Club World Cup

The minnows were not in the mood to be eaten by the sharks and provided some entertaining Club World Cup semi-finals.  The Saudi club Al-Hilal took a 1-0 lead into the halftime lockerroom and were still tied 1-1 late into the match against Brazil's Flamengo.    Alas, a 78th minute goal followed by an own goal minutes later put an end to that upset scenario.  Liverpool had nearly the same fate against Mexican side Monterrey.  The teams traded goals early (the Monterrey goal from Ramiro Funes Mori who you might remember from his days at Everton), then traded punches for the rest of the match.  Only Firmino's stoppage time goal saved us from extra time or PKs, which was a good thing because I had not set my DVR to allow that. 

Pre-tournament favorites Flamengo and Liverpool now meet in the final at 12:30 on Saturday; you can catch it at 5 pm on FS2.  DVR tip: since it is not a live event, you will not be prompted to add extra time so record the next show as well if you don't want to risk missing the whole thing. 

A financial note:  Top prize money for the Carabao Cup is £100,000 (for the team, not per man), while the Club World Cup winner gets £3.75 million.  I guess that explains the Liverpool's personnel decisions.



Don't expect to post next week.  We'll be back in two weeks with the exclusive BFS ratings for the EPL sides during the holidays.  In the meantime, celebrate the holiday of your choice by watching a football match or twelve.

Points Over Performance

Well we knew the Magpies luck would run out someday.  Except it wasn't last Sunday.  Some surprises over the weekend.  And all seven EPL sides advanced to the knockout stages of European competition.

Fernandez after winning goal

Once again, Newcastle stumbled out of the blocks, looking unlikely to generate any offense of their own.  Fortunately, Martin Dubravka did some more fine keeping to keep things scoreless.  Dennis notes "he might just be really good."  But when Southampton scored early in the second half, I had no confidence that the Magpies would respond.  Bruce replaced Joelinton with Carroll and was rewarded when the Bunned One sent a great cross that our goal scoring machine Jonjo Shelvey headed in to level the match.  Okay, a draw wouldn't be bad.  Bruce then replaced Almiron with Sean Longstaff.  He fired a great shot from the top of the box that Alex McCarthy could only parry away, right onto the foot of Frederico Fernandez, who did not miss from three yards out.  Hmm, stealing another 2-1 victory.

Some downsides here.  Saint-Maximin hurt his hamstring late and appears to be out until January.  Also, Joelinton looked lost out there.  Sure, he hasn't exactly been provided the best service but his touch was awful.  He might just not be very good and maybe we see Andy Carroll start this weekend.  The biggest issue is that they are still getting pretty much outplayed and yet getting positive results.  They are:

17th in goals scored
19th in shots
17th in shots on target
14th in goal differential
17th in shots allowed
14th in shots on target allowed
9th in goals allowed

Okay, that last one isn't too bad.  I looked at some "efficiency" type numbers but not much help there.  Newcastle are basically in the middle of the pack on things like goals per shot, goals per shots on target and shots on target per shot.  They are pretty high up (that is, low percentage) in goals allowed per shots on target allowed, which may speak to the work of Dubravka.  So we are left with the continuing conclusion that there's a lot of luck here.  Check out this table, which suggests essentially the same conclusion we reached before.  Based on expected goals, Newcastle would be in last place.

But Newcastle are 11th in the table so stop complaining right?  As both announcers pointed at a various stages of Sunday's game, Newcastle are about points, not performance.

"I love this game" - Manager Duncan Ferguson celebrates
 an Everton goal against Chelsea

Two surprises in the form of an Everton 3-1 win over Chelsea. and a Man United 2-1 derby win. Stats say maybe the Toffees stole this one but while watching it I sure felt they were the better side.  Same for the Red Devils; they spent most of the match up 2-0 even though the stats say City dominated.  A late City goal made it a little tight towards the end but it seemed like a masterful performance for United.

Three wrongs make a retake

Wolves - Brighton was the lively contest I had anticipated - for the first half.  But after a rousing 2-2 opening, the second half was pretty flat, with the match ending in a 2-2 draw.  My favorite moment was late when a Wolves player executed a foul throw (lifted his back foot) from the wrong location (a good 10 yards closer than he should have been) while being interfered with by a Brighton player (picture left). Spurs scored on Burnley early and often in a 5-0 thrashing which has everybody breathing easier at the New White Hart Lane.  Arsenal spotted West Ham a goal, then scored three of their own in 10 minutes to take that London derby relatively easily.  In other news, Liverpool (handing Bournemouth a fifth straight loss) and Leicester just keep winning.


He...Could...Go...All...The...Way

Lots of good choices this week but we'll go with Heung-Min Son's 102 yard kickoff return for a touchdown incredible run from his own 18 as this week's YouTubeableMoment. Happy Michael B?  The video does give one a sense of how many bloody cameras they have on these matches.


The Same In Any Language (apologies to I Nine)

BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S is not traveling but did send along this video (explicit language!) of American Jesse Marsch delivering a bilingual halftime talk to his RB Salzburg squad. They were down 1-3 at the time to Liverpool in a Champions League group stage match.  Maybe it helped because they tied the match up by 60 minutes before ultimately losing 3-4.  I take away two things.  First, as noted by the poster, see how the initial focus is an attitude adjustment before turning to the tactical elements.  Second, I wasn't aware that I knew the German word for f***.


EPL Teams Move On

Liverpool and Chelsea came through when they needed to and secured their berths in the knockout stage.  RB Salzburg played Liverpool tough for almost 60 minutes (they probably did not want a repeat of the halftime talk referenced above) but goals in rapid succession at 58 and 59 minutes ended any hopes of advancing.  Chelsea got on Lille early and held on for a 2-1 win to send them on.  City won against Dinamo Zagreb but they were already moving on while Spurs fell to Bayern but they were also already set for the knockout rounds.

In the Miss Congeniality Contest Europa League, Wolves, Man United and Arsenal got results sufficient to move them to the knockout stage of that competition.


You Can't Make Me Carabao It Cup

Turns out last week I left out two days of December action.  The Carabao Cup quarterfinals are on 12/17 and 12/18.   So there's football 21 days out of 31 this month and your longest drought will be 12/23-12/25.  On Tuesday Aston Villa will host Liverpool, who have already said they will be using a reserve squad since they are playing in the FIFA Club World Cup the following day (more on that below).  A likely squad listing is offered here.  All household names - if you live in their houses.  The other matches are on Wednesday and include Everton - Leicester, Oxford United - Man City, and Man United - Colchester.  Looks like ESPN+, i.e. streaming only for all four matches.


FIFA Club World Cup

I became aware of this competition only through Football Manager after Chester won the Champions League.  It brings together the six continental champions and throws in the winner of the host country's league just for laughs.  This year's line-up includes:

Flamengo - South America
Monterrey - North America
Liverpool - Europe
Al-Hilal - Asia
Esperance de Tunis - Africa
Hienghene Sport - Oceania
Al- Sadd - Qatar (host)

We note that Antarctica is not represented.  Details on the competition can be had here.  This seems like a sharks and minnows situation and indeed the European entrant has won the cup 11 of 15 times.  The South American teams have the other four wins.  Still, we know from Jurgen Klopp's personnel choices that this competition is still a higher priority than the Carabao League Cup.


Regular Stuff

But those other competitions only happen after some good ol' league play.  Except, the match ups aren't exactly going to blow you away.  My pick for the weekend is Wolves - Tottenham at 9 am Sunday morning on NBCSN.  Spurs are favored even on the road here but this should be a close contest.

Newcastle make a tough trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley.  The Clarets are probably still smarting from the 0-5 thrashing by Tottenham so that's not good.  I wouldn't look for more than three goals total here and that might be a stretch.  In the unlikely event you feel compelled to watch what is likely to be an ugly (though probably close) match, this one's on NBC Gold at 10 am on Saturday.

Saturday starts at 7:30 (NBCSN) with what looks like a massacre as Liverpool host Watford. The Reds average three goals per game at home vs Watford's .6 per game on the road.  At 538, they have Liverpool at 80% likely to win.  But I'll still watch.

The other 10 am matches besides Newcastle don't exactly stir the blood either.  TV game is Chelsea - Bournemouth; The Blues are enigmatic but the Cherries are on a five match losing streak.  You could opt for Leicester - Norwich or Sheffield United - Aston Villa on Gold.  Actually, the latter might be a decent watch.  The Saturday "feature" NBC match at 12:30 is Southampton - West Ham.  The primary interest there might be that the losing coach could find himself sacked by Monday morning. Hard to believe Manuel Pellegrini would survive should West Ham lose; Ralph Hasenhuttl might have a little more slack but a home loss to a relegation rival won't look good on the resume.

Sunday's matches besides Wolves - Spurs have some potential.  Man United host Everton at 9 am (NBC Gold) and Man City travel to face Arsenal at 11:30 on NBCSN.  Monday's bonus match is Crystal Palace versus Brighton at BFS's second favorite venue, Selhurst Park; that's at 2:45 on NBCSN.  Ah, Selhurst Park in December.  Reminds me of when I was a mere lad of 60.

Luck of the Geordies?

Four more unexpected points as Newcastle continue to get results using smoke and mirrors.   A pile of weekend and midweek action plus the European Championships draw.


Sometimes It Pays To Get Up Early

Jetro Willems goal at 25 minutes leveled the match at 1-1

Yikes, on Saturday not only were the Magpies going to have a rough go of it, we had to get up at 7:30 to watch.  As expected, the Citizens dominated play and it was no surprise when they took the lead at 22 minutes.  What was a surprise was when Willems leveled things just three minutes later on an excellent feed from Almiron (his first assist ever for Newcastle).  Then it was back to regular programming with Man City having the run of play and Newcastle doing their best to withstand the pressure.  Which they did pretty well.  So DeBruyne's brilliant strike at 82 minutes was at once understandable but also deflating.  I was totally unprepared for the Newcastle response just six minutes later when Atsu put a free kick outside the box which Shelvey rifled into the net to tie things up again. Pandemonium.  The video from the Gallowgate Stands is this week's YouTubeableMoment; because we are Magpie-centric here at BFS, here's the TV replay.

Several thoughts.  First, despite pre-game speculation of wholesale line-up changes, Steve Bruce's only tweak to the starting eleven was Manquillo in place of the injured Yedlin.  Most surprising for me was that he left Shelvey in despite Longstaff's availability.  Yeah, that worked out okay.  Almiron was also rumored to be headed for the bench in favor of Atsu but he started and contributed an assist.  Dummett started despite a bad game against Aston Villa and looked steady in the back three.  So credit to Steve Bruce for personnel decisions that worked out.

Fast forward to Thursday at Bramall Lane where Newcastle took on Sheffield, the second luckiest side this year.  Basically more of the same.  Little possession; in fact, Newcastle looked more helpless with the ball than against Man City.  But there was a cross from Manquillo that Saint-Maximin deposited into the net for his first goal in a Magpie shirt.  Also, Dubravka was superb in net so maybe sometimes it's not just luck.  Newcastle got a second goal from leading scorer Shelvey on a nice pass from Andy Carroll.  The AR had raised the flag but there was no whistle from Stuart Atwell so Shelvey continued onto the goal and beat the keeper.  VAR showed that Shelvey was onside and the goal counted.  There was much whining from the Sheffield side.  Enough, you play to the whistle.  If you don't know that the raised flag from the AR is not the definitive call on offside by now, you deserve what you get.  In fact, the Stuart Atwell had said as much to Shelvey earlier in the game.  Newcastle defending was well-organized and resolute so who's to say they didn't earn these points?

Except, let's be honest. The Magpies totally stole these points.  Man City had 76% of possession, outshot Newcastle 24 to 6, shots on target were 9 to 3 and corners were 10 to 1.  The stats at fivethirtyeight are even more one-sided.  On paper this was a blowout.  Pretty much the same against Sheffield United.  I'll argue that in part these results are a function of Newcastle defending and taking advantage of the goal scoring opportunities presented.  Is that pure luck?  Dennis says maybe not but is this pattern sustainable?  Hmm, probably not.  Still, there we are 11th in the table, closer to 5th than the relegation zone.


We Report, Owners Sack

Three of the six managers mentioned in last week's post are gone.  Of course, one (Emery) didn't even make to the post's publication.  Results since then have taken care of two more.

Flores - I don't often coach EPL sides but when
I do, I get sacked mid-season

Watford had led relegation rival Southampton for most of the match, meaning Ralph Hasenhuttl was
on the hot seat.  But the Saints scored at 78 and 83 minutes to turn the tables and Quique Sanchez Flores was the one who got axed.

Marco Silva survived the weekend after a nightmare loss against Leicester.  The Toffees had basically stifled Leicester and carried a 1-0 lead well into the second half.  Although Jamie Vardy tied things at 68 minutes a draw still appeared likely.  Then in the 4th minute of stoppage time, Iheanacho took a pass that split Everton defenders and put it past Pickford for an apparent game winner.  Except the call on the field was offside.  Then it was overruled by VAR and Everton was saddled with another loss.  Club officials held off firing Silva, apparently unwilling to make a change before Wednesday's Merseyside derby.  The 5-2 loss at Anfield was enough for them to pull the trigger.

Manuel Pelligrini is hanging by a thread.  West Ham did get a surprise 1-0 win over Chelsea but then fell 0-2 to Wolves mid-week.  As of posting, he is still employed.

Old Gunner Solskjaer didn't do himself any favors with a 2-2 draw against Aston Villa, but saw his stock rise considerably after a 2-1 win over Tottenham on Wednesday.  We thought the PK on Sissoko that was the difference in that match was kind of harsh.  On the replay it wasn't obvious that there was any contact.  But VAR was probably right to leave the call alone as it wasn't obvious that there wasn't any contact either.  Probably should leave Ole Gunnar alone anyway; United are unbeaten in last four and have climbed to 6th in the table.

Ralph Hasenhuttl's Southampton side got wins over relegation rivals Watford and Norwich so he's safe for awhile.


Random Observations

So much action to digest, I'm left to make one-off comments.

Southampton have two wins and a draw in last three and are now a whole point outside the relegation zone; on the one hand that's impressive but they must have been buried to get that many points and barely make it out

Wolves last loss was 9/14 vs Chelsea; that's 20 points in 10 matches so they are 5th in the table, six behind Chelsea

It doesn't take much of a streak to move you up the table; Crystal Palace win two in a row and move to 7th.  The second was a 1-0 win over Bournemouth despite playing down a man for about 70 minutes 

Spurs seemed to be specializing in building three goal leads, then surrendering two late in the match, repeating that formula in a home win over Bournemouth

Sticking it to the Mans - we note that BFS sides Newcastle and Aston Villa both got draws on the weekend against the Manchester teams 

Mourinho finds that maybe you can't go home again as he took his first defeat as Spurs manager in a 1-2 loss at Old Trafford

The new boss at Arsenal doesn't seem to be faring any better than the old boss as they get a road draw at Norwich and a home loss to Brighton; the Gunners are 10 points out of fourth 

Elsewhere, Liverpool and Leicester just keep on winning 

Groups of Death, Pestilence and Plague

The groups were drawn for the 2020 European Championships on Saturday. Details can be had here. Immediate attention went to Group F as the quintessential definition of The Group of Death.  Hard to argue about that moniker applying to a group that includes reigning World Champs France, reigning Euro Champs Portugal and Germany.  No matter that the fourth will be one of North Macedonia, Belarus, Georgia or Kosovo; getting out of that group will be tough.

But there are some other tough draws as well - Groups of Near Fatal Illness maybe.  Group E with Spain (8th in current FIFA rankings), Sweden (17) and Poland (19) is no picnic; their fourth will be one of Slovakia, Ireland, North Ireland or Bosnia & Herzegovina.  Or what about Group A with Switzerland (12), Italy (13), Wales (22) and Turkey (29)?

Complicating the handicapping somewhat is the expanded format.  With 24 teams and six groups, the first two in each group automatically will advance plus the four best third place teams.  I can't wait to read the tiebreaking procedures for that.  So it's possible that France, Portugal and Germany could advance to the knockout stage. 


No Wonder They Win

Anybody else notice that a key passing combination for Man City is Sterling Silva?


EPL and Champions League

Just keep right on watching - games on from Saturday to Thursday if you're so inclined, or reclined on the couch as the case may be.

Manchester derby on Saturday at 12:30 looks like the highlight.  Except maybe not.  At 538,  they are not expecting much of a contest, listing City with an 80% chance of winning.  Ouch.  It's been moved to NBCSN because PGA Golf is going to be on NBC (really?).

Saturday's 7:30 wake up match is car crash Everton hosting Chelsea.  No permanent replacement for Silva has been named so Duncan Ferguson, a current member of the coaching staff, will be in charge.  Just three matches at 10 am.  Bournemouth - Liverpool is the TV game; the Cherries (who looked like Lemons in their yellow away kit at Selhurst Park) have lost four in a row and this does not look like a fixture to end that streak.  Your choices on NBC Gold are Spurs - Burnley and Watford - Crystal Palace.  We'll probably go with Spurs, though the latter may be more competitive.

Four more matches on Sunday but three at 9 am.  We'll be taking in Newcastle - Southampton on NBC Gold.  This is a relegation six-pointer that is more crucial for the Saints, though it would give Newcastle a bigger cushion.  It's a match the Magpies really should be winning but they are so mercurial; secretly, I would take a draw here.  The TV game is Aston Villa - Leicester.  Norwich - Sheffield United is the other 9 am match.  All alone on TV at 11:30 is Brighton - Wolves, which looks like it might be fun.  The weekend concludes Monday afternoon with a London derby between West Ham and Arsenal.  Both of these squads have been underperforming and 538 has it as a close contest.  Also could be Pelligrini's last.

Champions League contests on Tuesday include Red Bull - Liverpool and Chelsea - Lille.  Liverpool advance with a win or draw; you can see that one at 12:55 on TNT.  Chelsea probably need to win to be assured of moving to the knockout stage; that's at 3 pm but looks to be available only by streaming.  Man City (Dinamo Zagreb) and Tottenham (Bayern) play on Wednesday but they have already punched their tickets to the knockout stage.  City is on TV at 12:55 on TNT but Spurs looks like streaming only at 3 pm.

Wolves Man-ager Nuno - having it all

We haven't talked much (at all?) about the Europa League, mostly because it's sole purpose seems to be to tire out mid-table teams with mid-week travel all over Europe so they struggle in league competition.  Group stage competition ends this Thursday.  Wolves and Man United are into the knockout round.  Arsenal, which face Standard Leige, need a win or draw to be sure of advancing.  They had been doing well but a draw and loss in the last two matches left them exposed.  So Wolves are kicking ass in the league despite playing in Europa League?  Maybe Nuno Espirito Santo is more than just the "Best Beard in the EPL."

I love December...

Better Than Leftovers

Like they used to say about old records  - drop the needle down anywhere and you'll like what you hear - you could have picked just about any match last weekend and seen a good contest.  Excepting of course, Aston Villa - Newcastle, which was a stinker for all but diehard Villa fans.

BFS Derby viewing party; Baine (far right) has
 Newcastle colors but roots for Aston Villa

Dennis may add his own comments but the Fillebrown derby was a sleeper and Aston Villa fully earned their 2-0 win.  Newcastle were simply not present and surrendered two set piece goals.  On the first, maybe Dubravka didn't get the wall exactly right but the free kick by Hourihane from just outside the box was well-taken anyway.  On the other, it looked like neither Magpie defender was sure who was supposed to cover El Ghazi.  One goal was going to be a struggle, two goals was a mountain to climb.  The stats say Newcastle had five shots on target but that seems high. Even though they have just one goal between them, the front three of Joelinton, Almiron and Saint-Maximin have been creating good chances and generating good offensive pressure.  Against Villa, they created nothing.  The points definitely meant more to Villa and the whole thing was a reminder of how lucky Newcastle have been to this point.

Dennis definitely had more fun than me.  Like me however, he doesn't get comfortable until they are up by four or more goals.   So he spent most of the second half fearful that somehow they would blow it.  Around 80 minutes he believed a draw was safe and around 90 minutes he conceded that the Villans were going to win.  I paid for the post-match dinner though it's not clear whether this was because Newcastle lost, I'm the dad, or my consulting firm had a good year.


Better Viewing Elsewhere

The three unluckiest sides to date - Watford, Everton and Southampton - saw no change in their fortunes.  I didn't see Watford - Burnley (0-3) or Everton - Norwich (0-2); the 538 stats say the Hornets and Toffees could have won those matches based on expected goals.  I did watch the 2-2 draw between Arsenal and Southampton.  Certainly that was an unexpected point for the Saints on the road but with Arsenal scoring in the 96th minute, Southampton were denied the full three points and again, 538 says they might have been unlucky.  Great match to watch by the way.

I had high hopes for Bournemouth - Wolves and maybe gave up on it too soon.  Wolves were all over Bournemouth quickly and tallied at 21 and 31 minutes.  When Simon Francis was sent off for a second yellow at 37 minutes, I was thinking it was over and switched to my dvred Arsenal-Southampton match.  Maybe a hasty decision as Bournemouth got one back at 59 minutes.  Since I didn't see it, I can't say if the final 30 minutes were compelling and I certainly got my money's worth with Arsenal - Southampton.  Still, maybe I should learn to hang in as you never know.

Spurs certainly responded under new management.  They looked great against West Ham and carried a 2-0 into the halftime locker room.  Kane added a third early in the second half and Spurs were cruising.  Two late goals for the Hammers made the final score deceptively respectable and served as a reminder that Spurs still have work to do.

Man City - Chelsea played a great first half.  Blues got the jump before City countered with two goals by halftime.  Second half was nowhere near as fun and the final was 2-1.  Those watching any of the other 10 am games might have missed Liverpool's thrilling 2-1 win over Crystal Palace.  The Eagles had tied the match at 82 minutes before Firmino got the game-winner at 85 minutes.  Wished I could have seen that one too but there are only so many minutes in a Saturday.

And none of the above qualify as match of the weekend.  That honor goes to a marvelous 3-3 draw between Sheffield United - Man United.  Before a raucous 32,000+ at ancient Bramall Lane (opened in 1852 for cricket, hosting football since 1862), the Blades fashioned a 2-0 lead over the Red Devils.  Then, three goals in less than eight minutes (72, 77 and 79) completely turned the tables.  At 2-3,  I was texting Jeff H as to whether this would be looked back on as the moment Cinderella Sheffield saw their carriage turn back into a pumpkin.  Spoke too soon.  Oliver McBurnie leveled things in the 90th minute. There was a bit of a wait as it wasn't clear whether the ball had come off McBurnie's arm first.  Too hard to tell IMHO so the VAR decision to let the goal stand was fair.  Sorry Jeff H, but it's this week's YouTubeableMoment.   A totally deserved draw for Sheffield.

So, slightly more than one-third of the way through the season, the top four - Liverpool, Leicester, Man City, and Chelsea - doesn't look that weird.  But 5th through 10th certainly has a different feel to it; in order they are Wolves, Sheffield United, Burnley, Arsenal, Man United and Tottenham.  Everton and West Ham linger near the relegation zone.

Results to date leave four six managers at elevated risks of being sacked.  Surprised that Marco Silva survived an 0-2 loss to Norwich at home.  Everton's next five matches in order are Leicester, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man United and Arsenal.  That's just nasty; losses in any or all of those matches in isolation wouldn't seem like justification for sacking.   So maybe Silva survives until Burnley on Boxing Day?

Unai Emery's Arsenal were lucky to escape with a 2-2 draw at home versus Southampton.  They are winless in their last five and eight points out of fourth.  He's hanging on by a thread.  With West Ham just three points clear of the relegation zone, Manuel Pellegrini is certainly in jeopardy as well.  Ole Gunnar Solkjaer saw his team snatch a draw from the jaws of defeat and that may buy him some time.  And with their clubs now 19th and 20th in the table, Ralph Hasenhuttl (Southampton) and Quique Flores (Watford) probably shouldn't be buying new houses just yet either.  Good article here from the Guardian on the pros and cons of dumping Silva, Emery and Pellegrini.

Wrote the above late Thursday night.  By Friday morning, Emery was gone.  The Europa League loss to Eintracht Frankfurt was the final straw.  Freddie Ljungberg takes over as interim manager.  Mikel Arteta, Massimiliano Allegri and Nuno Espirito Santo are mentioned as leading candidates.  Certainly Arteta would be a natural fit but he's Guardiola's assistant right now.  Santo has led his Wolves squad to 5th in the table so a mid-season switch there might be awkward.

Trivia question: Who is currently longest tenured manager in EPL (answer below)


Champions League

Great midweek viewing here too.  Spurs ceded two goals to Olympiacos before storming back for a 4-2 win.  They clinch a spot in the knockout round.  Man City were already in pretty good shape so the 1-1 draw with Shakhtar Donetsk was good enough to send them onto the knockout round as well.

Full body magic spray - good for what ails you

Two more entertaining matches on Wednesday.  Chelsea spotted Valencia a goal before netting two of their own, the second from American scoring machine Christian Pulisic.  A dubious PK call gave Valencia a chance to level but Arrivabeluga Archipelago Kepa made a brilliant save, which you can see here, to protect the lead.  Ah, but the joy was short-lived as Valencia eventually got their equalizer in the 82nd minute.  A win would not have guaranteed Chelsea a berth in the knockout round though it would have left them sitting pretty  A win over the group's weakest member (Lille) in the final group stage match will see them through.  Liverpool looked better on the stat sheet yet could only manage a 1-1 draw with Napoli.  This left them short of qualifying for the knockout round so they will need a win or draw against FC Red Bull Salzberg to book their ticket.  Best memory from that match might have been the total body magic spray treatment that a Napoli player got after landing on his shoulder (see picture above right). You can see he's shrouded in a cloud of the stuff.

Final group stage matches are 12/10 and 12/11.


The Weekend and Week Days Too

We enter December, a month in which you won't go more than a day or two with no EPL team in action.  There are league matches on 16 days and Champions League/Europa League add three more days of viewing.  The longest drought will be from 12/17 through 12/20.

Newcastle get us started early Saturday as they offer themselves up to Man City for the 7:30 NBCSN match.  We're hearing that there could be some notable changes, like Atsu for Almiron and Krafth for Yedlin.  Sean Longstaff will return from suspension, likely taking Shelvey's place.  The phrase "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" comes to mind.  They are taking on a City squad that will be without Aguero, which means they can only choose from Jay Zeus and Mahrez for striker.  This one's all about keeping the goal differential down.

Four matches at 10 am.  TV choice is Spurs - Bournemouth (NBCSN) and we'll probably go with that.  Burnley - Crystal Palace might be a good second choice on NBC Gold; Chelsea hosting West Ham in another London derby and Liverpool - Brighton don't look quite as exciting.  That Southampton vs Watford is the "feature" 12:30 match on NBC is possibly puzzling but maybe not if you love relegation battles.  Somebody has to get points here.

Four matches on Sunday. The two at 9 am are Norwich-Arsenal and Wolves vs Sheffield United.  The former is on NBCSN but we're more inclined to watch the latter on NBC Gold.  They are 5-6 in the table and play attractive football.  At 11 we have Leicester - Everton and Man United - Aston Villa.  I can see reasons to check out both.  Could be I watch the first on Gold, then go to the dvr for the second.  What else ya gonna do on a snowy Sunday?

Take Monday off but be ready to report back to work on Tuesday.  The NBCSN match is Burnley vs Man City at 3:15 on NBCSN.   Crystal Palace - Bournemouth is at 2:30 on NBC Gold.  Six more on Wednesday.  The TV match looks good - Man United vs Spurs.  Big match up for both of those teams.  Big enough that it relegated the Merseyside derby to NBC Gold at 3:15; is this a slap at Everton or what?  Newcastle get to travel to Sheffield Thursday; the Magpies are solid underdogs in this one too.  You'll have to go to Gold to watch, as Arsenal - Brighton gets the NBCSN TV slot.

Will that hold you until next Saturday?

Trivia answer: Eddie Howe - Bournemouth 7 years 47 days

A Week "Off"

No moss growing under the soccer world's feet...

International Stuff

The USMNT did not have any trouble dispatching Canada and Cuba in the CONCACAF Nations Cup matches.  As I understand it, there was really nothing of consequence - except the US reputation - on the line.  The US only needed to finish second in their group to qualify for the 2021 Gold Cup but with these victories took first in the group.  It was probably still good that they took care of business and they will face Honduras in the Nations League semi-final, with the winner to take on the winner of the other semi between Mexico and Costa Rica.  Those matches will take place in June.

Slightly more serious stuff in Europe as group stage play concluded and more automatic berths were awarded for the 2020 Euro Championships.  I saw Iceland come up short in a 0-0 draw against Turkey. For excitement, Czech Republic vs Kosovo was pretty good. Trailing 0-1 at 70 minutes, the Czech Republic were looking at third place and no automatic berth.  Goals at 71 and 79 minutes rectified that and there was much rejoicing, at least for the Czechs.  Portugal struggled a bit against Luxembourg on a pitch that would make a Philadelphia Public League groundskeeper blanch but got a 2-0 win and a berth.

Monday's match between Ireland and Denmark was high on tension but relatively low on action.  The Irish in their kale collard green collared green jerseys (left) simply didn't have enough offense.  Denmark was always going to be satisfied with a draw that would advance them to the finals so a goal at 73 minutes looked like it had settled matters.  An Irish  goal at 85 minutes provided some glimpse of hope but the 1-1 final was just not enough.

Their neighbors across St. George's Channel - that would be Wales - had a better time of it on Tuesday  They handled Hungary pretty well and earned their 2-0 win.  Check out the first goal on a connection between Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey. The delivery and finish make it this week's  YouTubeableMoment.

So twenty spots are set.  They include:

Austria                        Belgium
Croatia                        Czech Republic
Denmark                     England
Finland                        France
Germany                     Italy
Netherlands                 Poland
Portugal                       Russia
Spain                           Sweden
Switzerland                 Turkey
Ukraine                        Wales

Another 16 countries have a second chance at the last four slots through a two-game playoff process in March.  Final pairings for those:

Path A: Iceland v Romania, Bulgaria v Hungary*

Path B: Bosnia and Herzegovina v Northern Ireland*, Slovakia v Republic of Ireland

Path C: Scotland v Israel, Norway v Serbia*

Path D: Georgia v Belarus*, North Macedonia v Kosovo

So it's possible Ireland would meet Northern Ireland for one of the last spots.  Also note that one of Georgia, Belarus, North Macedonia and Kosovo is going to get a spot. They are currently ranked 39, 37, 36, and 46 respectively in UEFA.  I want one of them in my group when they get to drawing the groups for the final.
 

Pochettino Sacked

A surprise but not a surprise.  They have been underperforming - aside from some good Champions League moments - for over a year now.  But how much is on Pochettino?  They are underspenders compared to the other Top Six.  His replacement is The Special One, Jose Mourinho.

Dennis: He is the de facto manager for struggling teams that need a turnaround
Steve: Is de facto Latin for douche?
Michael B: COYS

So Michael will hang in there.


Who's Been Lucky?

I did go back to complete the analysis that I mentioned a view weeks ago in the context of Sheffield United's fairy tale start to the season.  Using data from 538, I recalculated results for each game based on expected goals (shot-based and nonshot).  Games that were within .5 were classified as draws.  The revised table looks like this:

Manchester City	34
Liverpool	30
Chelsea	28
Manchester United	23
Everton	22
Leicester City	22
Watford	21
Arsenal	18
Brighton and Hove Albion	17
Burnley	17
Tottenham Hotspur	16
Crystal Palace	12
Southampton	12
Wolverhampton	12
AFC Bournemouth	11
Sheffield United	11
Aston Villa	10
West Ham United	10
Norwich City	5
Newcastle	3

Some comments.  Biggest loser was Newcastle at -12; Watford was a +13 while Man City was +9.  At just +2, Tottenham's situation doesn't look like the result of bad luck.

The Newcastle number required game-by-game review but it stands up.  All of their losses are deserved.  They were outplayed by Tottenham but snuck away with a 1-0 win.  The win over West Ham probably should have been a loss too.  The wins over Man United and Bournemouth look more like draws.  And the draws to Wolves and Brighton could easily have been losses.  That's 12 points.  It makes some sense - they have been lucky to this point.  They've been living on header goals on set pieces from defenders.  I haven't seen enough Watford games to comment on their +13 points from this approach.

I certainly don't present this as definitive statement as to what the table should look like.  But if some of this is luck, presumably some of the variations could even out as the season goes on.  And the study was "peer reviewed" by Dennis.


Union Redux

Several weeks removed from the season, let's take a look back at Union's performance in 2019 and personnel issues for 2020.  Certainly the results easily justify the mantle of "best season" in the Union's history.  We'll leave the issue of whether that's a low bar aside.  They had their equal highest finish (third) and equal best goal differential (+8); that 2011 season was actually pretty good.  This was the most points in franchise history (55) and most goals scored (58).  And of course, there was the hysteric historic playoff win over the Red Bulls.

Many, though not all, of Tanner's choices worked out well.  Peter Andrews at the Philly Soccer Page did a nice summary of those moves, which include (brave for a pundit) his reaction at the time.  Here is Part One and here is Part Two.  The only outright bust was Wooten.  Fabian was a disappointment but he had his moments; the problem is that his $ per moment was way too high.  But shuhBILLkoh, Monteiro and Wagner were solid and Santos and Collin were helpful.

Looking at WhoScored Ratings provides some quantitative measure of performance to match against one's subjective views.  Top five Union players were shuhBILLkoh, Monteiro, Medunjanin, Ilsinho, and Elliott.  Missing from list for me is Wagner, though he wasn't that far behind Elliott in the ratings.  I wouldn't have had Med in that list but he was important to the offense.  A little surprised how far down the ratings I had to go to find Aaronson but he could disappear for stretches.  He still rated higher than Blake. who had the lowest rating of any Union with regular playing time and next to last among all regular MLS keepers.  Yikes, that used to be a position we didn't have to think about.

So where do we go from here?  For better or worse, Aaronson, Bedoya, Blake, Elliott, Gaddis, shuhBILLkoh, Santos, Wagner and Wooten are back.  Fabian and Medunjanin will not be offered contracts; I'm okay with that as Fabian was just too costly for what he provided and Medunjanin was just getting too old to handle the position.  Center back Auston Trusty has been traded to Colorado. He had been a regular for much of the season but by the end of the year wasn't even a named substitute.  Reports suggest there are some unspecified off-field issues.  Presumably this means they will sign McKenzie.  Whether Ilsinho and more importantly, Monteiro, return is also not settled.  The bad news on Monteiro is that 1) he might not want to come back and 2) even if he does, the asking price of his parent club (FC Metz of France's Ligue 2) may be too high.  If Trusty trade was an attempt to generate enough funds to satisfy Monteiro and FC Metz, I'm all for it.  Losing a key player in the midfield - again - is not a helpful way to start the off-season.  I would guess they will re-sign Ilsinho.

Probably need to shore up right back; Ray Gaddis had his moments but he also had his moments.  Even before Trusty was traded I would have been looking for some help at center back.  With Medunjanin, Fabian and possibly Monteiro gone, the midfield may occupy much Tanner's off-season attention. The good news is that Tanner's batting average is pretty good so there is some reason to believe that he can make the necessary changes.


BFS Derby!

This weekend marks the return of the BFS Founders Derby with Aston Villa hosting Newcastle at 3 pm on Monday (NBCSN).  The two sides haven't squared off for two years since Newcastle were promoted in 2017.  Both are usually mentioned in the list of relegation candidates.  Early on this season, Aston Villa looked much better than the Magpies but fortunes have changed and Newcastle have four points on the Villans.  FiveThirtyEight gives Villa a 47% chance of winning compared to Newcastle's 26%.  I'll be heading up to Allentown to watch with Dennis.  Prince William, another noted Aston Villa fan, has not responded to the invitation to join us.

Of course, this derby will just be the cherry on top of jam-packed weekend of action.  The Special One will take the reins for a London Derby between West Ham and Tottenham at 7:30 Saturday on NBCSN.  The 10 am slot is crowded with six matches.  The TV match is Arsenal- Southampton on NBCSN.  The Gunners had looked poised for a challenge to the top four but now are winless in their last four; a home match with Southampton might get them back on track.  I'll probably go with Bournemouth - Wolves on NBC Gold over the TV match.  Anybody notice that only Liverpool have fewer losses than Wolves?  The two sit 8-9 in the table with 16 points each and virtually identical goal differentials.  Other matches of note on Gold at 10 am include first place Liverpool traveling to Crystal Palace and second place Leicester on the road to Brighton.

The NBC feature game at 12:30 is Man City - Chelsea.  The Blues have worked their way into third,  ahead of City.  Christian Pulisic, who has featured in Chelsea's resurgence, looks doubtful for the match.  Still hoping for a good one here.

Sunday's solo contest is also intriguing - Sheffield United hosting Man United.  The Blades are unbeaten in five after a loss to Liverpool.  Man United still haven't decided what they want to be when they grow up.  Seems like a good test for both.

Also, full slate of Champions League group stage matches mid week so check your local listings for those.

We have so much to be thankful for.