Lump of Coal to Newcastle Again

Pretty sure I used that header before but it's another Christmas season in which Newcastle got a lump of coal in its proverbial stocking.

I believe my tally for the 14 Days of Football was all or part of 20 out of 40 matches.  I remember some of them.  Some might say get a life.  In my defense, since I was limited to a daily walk around the block with a walker, it's not like there were a lot of other things I could have been doing. 

Here's the BFS rating system:

From Paul McCartney - "Simply having a wonderful Christmastime"

Santa obviously read your list very carefully

Nice enough but you didn't get the Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time you really wanted

Ties are a nice gift but how many do you really need?

 

You may have been naughtier than you realized

Newcastle - 

The draw with Watford kept this from being a lump of coal.  Two points and one goal in the four matches is pretty pathetic.  The points came from draws to Fulham and Watford.  The losses were 0-4 to Liverpool and 0-2 to Man United.  Only Huddersfield, which got no points, fared worse over the holiday season.  To be fair, there were times when the Magpies weren't awful; the defense continues to be reasonably stout and well-organized.  But the lack of creativity and scoring touch means that if they don't convert their one or two chances, the best they can get is a 0-0 draw.  

January 1 opens the most critical transfer window in recent history for Newcastle.  First, they must make additions to ensure they are not relegated.  More importantly though, anything less than meaningful support from owner Mike Ashley as Benitez attempts to improve the squad surely means that Rafa is gone at the end of the season regardless of Newcastle's finish.   

Man United  - You Can Only Beat Who You Play 

Despite the temptation to adjust the rating downwards based on the quality of the opposition (Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle), we cannot in good conscience award Man United anything less than five Santas.  About all you could have asked for was bigger margins of victory but even at that, they went from 0 to +11 in goal differential in these four matches.  They went from 11 points out of 4th to just six behind Chelsea.  A season reborn.  

No other 5-Santa performances but we do have some pretty happy campers.  

Leicester - 

The degree of difficulty makes us want to award that fifth Santa but we can't do that based on the 0-1 loss to Cardiff.  But how about consecutive wins over Chelsea and Man City?  Add in the 1-0 win over Everton and the Foxes added nine points to move to the top of the mid-table.  One could have easily seen them being happy with six points.

Crystal Palace - 

The Eagles surprised Man City, drew with Cardiff and beat Wolves for a seven point haul.  And they gave Chelsea a run before falling 0-1.  Still surprised to see them just six points away from the relegation zone but it could have been even closer without these points.

The grading gets harder (and more subjective) as we go through the top five sides, as expectations are a bit higher.  Like how can you give sides that took home nine points less than four Santas?  Watch me.

Liverpool - 

But, but, we had three wins, including a 5-1 thrashing of Arsenal.  Yeah, but you lost the won that really mattered to Man City 1-2.  Great match that one.

Spurs - 

But, but we got nine points.  Yeah but you lost to Wolves 1-3.  The schedule was soft enough (Everton, Bournemouth, Wolves, Cardiff) that 12 points was not unrealistic.  If our graphics department was any good, we might have given 3-1/2 Santas, recognizing that Wolves can be tricky (see below).


Man City - 

But, but they only got six points and lost to Crystal Palace and Leicester.  Surely this was two Santa stuff.  Yeah but they won the one that really mattered - Liverpool.

Arsenal - 

But, but we got seven points.  Yeah, but you got pummeled by Liverpool and only managed a draw against Brighton.  Nine points was surely doable.

Chelsea - 

But, but we got seven points.  Yeah you beat Crystal Palace and Watford but you lost to Leicester and drew 0-0 with Southampton. With those fixtures 12 points was possible and certainly more than seven could have been expected.


We already got the two bottom performers - Huddersfield and Newcastle - but we'll add one more.

Everton - 

Just three points by beating Burnley while losing to Tottenham (2-6, ouch), Brighton and Leicester.  They started the holidays just two behind Man United but now trail them by 11 and have slipped to 11th in the table.

Wolves in Wolves Clothing

Despite a rather mediocre holiday (we gave it ) Wolverhampton can play you quite tough, as Tottenham found out in the 1-3 defeat at Wembley.  Seems like they can give the top six squads fits.  Turns out I was basically right.  Looking at each team's performance against the top six sides (Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Man United), only Man City and Liverpool have collected more points than Wolves.   To reflect that fact that top six teams have fewer chances to get points against top six teams, since they don't play themselves,  I did it again calculating percentage of possible points taken from top six sides.  Even doing that, Wolves are still 4th best.  Full table below. 

	Points	Possible	Percent
Man City	13	18	72%
Liverpool	12	21	57%
Chelsea	8	15	53%
Wolves	9	21	43%
Tottenham	6	15	40%
Leicester	6	18	33%
Arsenal	5	18	28%
Crystal Palace	5	21	24%
Brighton	4	18	22%
West Ham	4	18	22%
Southampton	5	24	21%
Watford	3	18	17%
Man United	2	15	13%
Everton	1	18	6%
Burnley	0	18	0%
Fulham	0	21	0%
Cardiff	0	21	0%
Bournemouth	0	21	0%
Newcastle	0	21	0%
Huddersfield	0	21	0%

Ooh look at that, another category with Newcastle at the bottom

Odds and Ends

Ugly Christmas Sweater Goal - There were some not so pretty goals but none were uglier than this one from Southampton.  The ugly goal comes at about 23 seconds into the video.  So why wasn't this called back for offside?  All together class, because the man in the offside position never got involved in active play or interfered with the keeper.  We recommend watching the whole video to see the two brilliant goals from Felipe Anderson.

Sir, your watch is beeping.  Time has expired. Sir?

Do I Have to Do Everything Myself? - Felipe Anderson continues to be not only hot but versatile.  He already had two goals to bring West Ham back from an 0-1 deficit to Southampton (see above).  But as time ran down, he also became Assistant Timekeeper, making sure that Craig Pawson knew that time had expired (see right).  Anderson now has eight goals, equal 9th in the EPL.  No word on whether he does windows.

That Was 90 Minutes I Could Have Been Watching the Mummers - Everton and Leicester certainly did nothing to advance the cause of the EPL with that stinker.  The Leicester goal was nice enough but the game was basically a collection of poor touches and misdirected passes.  The Newcastle - Fulham 0-0 draw would have been in this category except it wasn't on New Year's Day.

It Had to Happen Sometime - Arsenal's 2-0 half time lead over Burnley was the first time this season that the Gunners went into the locker room ahead at the half.  More importantly, they actually held the lead at full time.

Prognosticators - As the announcer was suggesting that Liverpool's response to Arsenal's early goal boded well for an interesting match,  Dennis and I were thinking the opposite.  With Liverpool scoring unleashed we both agreed they would be up 4-1 at half time.  Two of us were right.  One of the more disappointing fixtures.

And Now, the FA Cup

This weekend is the third round of the FA Cup, the first round in which the top tiers participate.  You can go back to this BFS post from 2014, for a more complete explanation of the competition.  Looks like limited TV coverage at this point so you may have to check out streaming services.  This article in the Guardian provides some of the match-ups of interest.    

Early Christmas?

Another Newcastle win plus a new hip in the same week.  Very cool.

Rondon celebrates goal in University of Pennsylvania colors

Recall that I said I'd be happy with a draw at Huddersfield so the 1-0 win was even better.  Again with 5 at the back, willing to cede possession.  Rondon took advantage of the scoring opportunity he was given (nice cross from Manquillo) and Huddersfield did not convert the few chances they got.  As opposed to other matches, I didn't watch the last 20 minutes assuming the equalizer was just around the corner.  The Magpies seemed to have things pretty tight at the back.  I am wondering about the change kits - looks like University of Pennsylvania surplus.

Jesus Saves Scores

Gabriel Jesus made life miserable for Everton with a brace of goals at the Etihad.  Calvert-Lewin pulled one back at 65 minutes but shortly thereafter Sterling scored to give Man City their comfortable 3-1 win.  Similarly, Shaqiri's two goals meant doom for Man United and their beleaguered manager (more below) as Liverpool stay atop the table with their 3-1 win.  Some may say that both Shaqiri's tallies were deflected past DeGea; true dat, but they were both struck from high percentage locations so hard to say it was pure luck.  The 538 metrics agree, suggesting it was a blow out.  The win means Liverpool stay just ahead of Man City.

Judging by scorelines, looks like I missed the two best matches of the weekend.  Watford were up 3-0 on Cardiff but two goals after the 80th minute meant an exciting finish.  And Arsenal lost for the first time since August 18th, dropping a 2-3 decision to Southampton.  That looked like a marvelous back and forth affair (unless you're a Gunner fan), with Arsenal coming back from 0-1 and 1-2 deficits before Charlie Austin sealed the thing in the 85th minute. Arsenal were wearing those sea green kits that remind me of my high school prom tuxedo again; I haven't done the numbers yet but I'm wondering it that's a good color for the Gunners.

I did see West Ham continue their hot streak with a 2-0 win over Fulham.  I think I watched Chelsea beat Brighton 2-1 but not remembering any details.  Spurs left it late but did get the 1-0 win over Burnley.  No change at the top four but Arsenal fall a little farther behind and Man United have pretty much confirmed their mid-table status.  

May Outlasts Mourinho

As regular as the swallows returning to Capistrano, Jose Mourinho is leaving a team during his third year with the club.  A little surprised it was the loss to Liverpool that was the final straw.  The caretaker manager, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer...  Wait. Stop right there.  The new Manchester United guy is a former Arsenal player? Oh, okay, it's Norwegian.  Anyway, his first four matches are Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle so he has an excellent chance of starting 4-0.

I wouldn't be placing any bets for Theresa May's long-term tenure either but she did outlast the Special One.

Schedule

Lots of games.  Too many to discuss.  I will note that Newcastle's holiday fixtures are Fulham (H), Liverpool (A), Watford (A), and Man United (H).  My initial reaction is that three points might be a good haul for us, which sucks.  Maybe we nick a point at Watford but I wouldn't hold my breath.  

Hopefully you get to watch a lot and have a good holiday season.  Probably won't be back to post until after New Year's Day.

House of Cards

Sunday's annoying 1-2 loss to Wolves was actually set in motion by events in the draw at Everton.  Working backwards, on Sunday DeAndre Yedlin was playing out of position at center back when he drew the red card for DOGSO.  Why was he playing at center back?  Because Fernandez picked up an injury in the first half.  Okay, we'll bring in Ciaran Clark.  Wait, he was already in the game.  Why? Because Schar picked up his 5th yellow for the season in the Everton match and was suspended for the Wolves contest so Clark had to start.  When you're as thinly put together as Newcastle are, these little things can have a big impact.

Clark and Dubravka watch the point slip away

As it was, the Magpies did perform heroically and were seconds from snatching a draw despite playing down a man for 37+ minutes.  But close only counts in horse shoes, hand grenades and atom bombs.  Hard to say the last second goal felt like a gut punch because I'd been expecting it all along.  I am encouraged however by how the lads do play with heart, not always a given with some of the non-Rafa managed squads we seen in the past.  So despite the loss, I'm not feeling the need right now to crawl out on the ledge.

Regular BFS readers know I'm not a big fan of referee Mike Dean but I don't fault him on the DOGSO call.  First, it was clearly a foul.  Second, from the replays I saw, I doubt VAR would have overturned his call so you can't say it was egregious.  I do wonder if another referee might have been satisfied with a yellow in that situation and I think VAR would have been inconclusive in proving that it should have been DOGSO.  Many Newcastle partisans were also on Dean's case for not calling on elbow to Perez's face; looked there was contact but not sure it was a foul.

Sarri Not Sorry

Dressed for a slumber party?

Chelsea put paid to Man City's unbeaten streak with a solid 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge.  I thought the Citizens had the run of play in the first half but Kepa (best name for goalie I've heard in a while) denied some good scoring chances and it was the Blues who took the halftime lead thanks to Kante's stoppage time goal. David Luiz added a second at 78 minutes (Hazard assisted on both goals) for a surprising 2-0 win for Chelsea.  Liverpool are now the only unbeaten side.  Speaking of Liverpool, who stole their uniforms and replaced them with pajamas (see right)?  But good teams win with whatever they're wearing and Liverpool eased away to a 4-0 win over Bournemouth.

I went with West Ham - Crystal Palace London Derby on NBC Gold over the TV choices for the 10 am game and was rewarded with a highly watchable match.  Palace went up early, but West Ham got three unanswered goals. Schlupp added one back to keep it interesting.  And who is this Felipe Anderson?  Five goals in six matches from him.

Spurs showed no ill effects of the derby disaster and handled a tricky fixture with Leicester, coming away with a 2-0 win at King Power Stadium. Arsenal left it late but did not spoil last week's derby win with an unnecessary home draw to Huddersfield; the 1-0 win keeps them close to the top 4.  Monday's seeming afterthought of a contest - Everton v Watford - was an excellent mid table contest.  The Toffees had an early lead but Watford were just the better side and they got two in rapid succession.  But Lucas Digne's free kick in the 96th minute grabbed a point back for Watford.

Mourinho and May

Both had better weeks, though neither is out of the woods.  Man United were not pressed by Fulham in a 4-1 romp at Old Trafford.  But they are 6th in the table, 10 points out of a Champions League spot.  Plus, they have to face Liverpool, a somewhat tougher opponent than Fulham, this Sunday.  On the other hand, the Red Devils opponents for the 14 Days of Christmas are Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle.  Bring us some figgy pudding indeed.

For her part, Theresa May survived a no confidence vote from her Conservative Party.  That means she can't be challenged by her party for a year.  On the other hand, she had to postpone the vote on Brexit, presumably as it did not have the votes to pass.  Not clear if she survives without an agreement to exit the EU, which Britain is due to leave on March 29.  

MLS

The MLS Cup was fast paced and noisy but not quite as gripping as one would have hoped.  I'm sure Atlanta supporters had a great time.  So they take the title in just their second year of existence.  Apparently some franchises are just better than others at figuring this out.  

Meanwhile the Union just traded Fabian Herbers to Chicago for a second round pick.  Not exactly the roster shake up so far that we might have expected.  Graham points out it's not a good sign when you end up trading a #6 draft pick, which Herbers was in 2016, for a 29th pick.  We didn't lose anybody in the expansion draft.  Wait, Cincinnati is getting a franchise?  Well, there goes Bob K's rooting interest in the Union.  After all that time we spent cultivating his support.  Plus, he'll probably get to celebrate the franchise's first playoff win before we do.

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things

BFS Health Care Consultant/Track and Field Analyst (admittedly we don't have a lot of stuff in either area but we are covered just in case) Jack W sends along this article about a dispute between the US Soccer Federation and the US Soccer Foundation. Seems like a fight that has nothing to do with improving the sport for its participants. Jack notes that pretty much the same thing - minus the lawsuit (at least so far) - has gone on between USA Track and Field and the USA Track and Field Foundation.   Geez, I thought we were on the same team.  

Champions League Bonus Coverage

Man City and Man United went into the last day of group stage play with knockout berths already clinched but both Liverpool and especially Tottenham went in with some work to do.  Liverpool needed to beat Napoli 1-0 or by two goals so their 1-0 win at Anfield was sufficient.  Spurs, playing Barcelona at Camp Nou, needed to match whatever Inter Milan did at PSV.  At the time Inter got the tying goal against PSV, Tottenham were down 0-1.  So Spurs desperately needed to level things.  And they did on a brilliant piece of build up play; we'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment  (unfortunately it doesn't show how they worked the ball out from the back but trust me it was some fine work).  So all four EPL sides advance to the knockout stage. 

Weekend

Best match of the weekend looks to be Liverpool hosting Man United Sunday at 11 on NBCSN.  The pesky 7:30 am Saturday match is just good enough to get up for - Man City coming off their first loss hosting Everton.  For the 10 am matches, we'll be taking in Huddersfield - Newcastle; 538 has the Terriers as healthy favorites but I am holding out hopes for a draw here.  The TV match is Spurs-Burnley but I would be tempted to go with Wolves - Bournemouth for a competitive mid-table fixture.  The NBC game at 12:30 is another London Derby featuring Fulham and West Ham. The Hammers are on a roll and have been playing some attractive football; the Cottagers are still looking for that clean sheet and the promised trip to McDonalds.  Sunday has top table teams Chelsea (vs BHA) and Arsenal (home versus Southampton) at 8:30; upsets don't look too likely there.  

Under the Knife

I get my hip replaced Monday.  Depending on how quickly I recover I come home Tuesday or Wednesday.  No idea if I'm going to be up for blogging or not.  Maybe it will be a pleasant distraction, maybe sitting in the chair will be uncomfortable excruciating.  So, just in case I'm not around to remind you, don't forget that the 14 Days of Football start on Friday 12/21.  There are 40 matches between then and January 3.  Only days without games are 12/24, 12/25, 12/28, and 12/31.  In some ways this might be a stupid idea on the part of EPL, with teams being overextended leading to increased injuries to players.  But it certainly is good marketing - plenty of product to watch during the holidays.  We'll certainly be back in January to rate all the teams on their holiday performance, adjusted of course for degree of difficulty.  Enjoy.

Midtable Interrupted

A loss at home to West Ham partially redeemed by a mid-week draw at Goodison Park leaves Newcastle closer to the bottom than to mid table status plus some wild stuff in the derbies.

Newcastle were not awful in the 0-3 loss to West Ham but it sure felt that way.  Down 0-1 at 60 minutes I didn't believe it was a lost cause even with all the missed chances (looking at you Ayoze).  Chicharito's second in the 63rd minute convinced me otherwise.  That deflated the Magpies and they never really threatened again.   Putting a positive spin on it, the loss should dampen any overrating of this team and should reemphasize how critical the January transfer window will be.

Resolute defending was the order of the day in the 1-1 draw to Everton.  Benitez returned to the back three (Lascelles, Fernandez and Schar) with the offensive emphasis on counterattacking and set pieces.  The ball spent an inordinate amount of time in the final third and the Toffees did get some good chances.  But more often than not, the Everton possession ended with a cross into the box that was easily dispatched by our big guys.  A beautiful cross from Murphy finished by Rondon was offset by Richarlison's goal off a scramble on a corner and it was honors even as they say.  Big shout out to Dubravka for excellent command of the box.  I think maybe we'll see a back three for awhile.

The bigger news is that Ashley is claiming the club is close to being sold.  Arthur Blank, owner of Atlanta Falcons but more importantly owner of Atlanta United FC, has been linked with Newcastle.  But his people deny it.  Ooh boy, we've been down this road before.  Frankly, can't really believe anything reported about a possible sale.

Miguel Almiron - trading red and black for white and black?

We're also being linked with Atlanta midfielder Miguel Almiron.  Supposedly Newcastle are one of the sides he would consider coming to England.  Makes sense - he wants to play rather than sit on the bench so a non-top six club would be logical.  But the transfer price is probably over 20m pounds so how in the world are we going to compete for him at that level?

We head into the weekend at the top of the bottom as Michael B put it - 14th in the table but closer to 20th than 13th.  Despite that, feeling a bit more optimistic - especially after the rebound performance at Everton.


Derby Doings

Arsenal-Tottenham was just wild.  Spurs looked disinterested and fell behind 0-1.  Then they got interested and went up 2-1.  Then they fell apart, allowing three unanswered goals.  Metrics at 538 suggest it was the 4-2 blow out we saw.  I was nervous when I saw Mike Dean as the referee.  To be fair, he had to make the call on Vertonghen - his arm was in a weird position and arguably swung toward the ball.  No idea why he gave the yellow to Dier - must have felt he was taunting.  The call on Son?  I did not see any contact.  Neither did Dennis.  The boys in the studio did.  It was an incredibly sloppy challenge.  Using my 15 second review limitation for VAR, the call would probably not get overturned.  Turns out not to have mattered.  A deserved win for the Gunners and they slide into 4th, still unbeaten since 8/18.

Liverpool Everton was about as good a scoreless match as you could want.  End to end play, decent scoring chances.  Of course it didn't end scoreless thanks to the strangest goal of the year on basically the last play of the match. What a cruel way to lose any match but especially a derby that looked to be heading for a draw.  Easily this week's YouTubeableMomentFiveMinutes. (Warning: includes Klopp celebration and multiple views of the goal - not recommended for Everton fans.)


Other People's Bad Days

Mark Hughes saw his Southampton side blow a two goal lead on the way to a 2-2 draw against Man United.  Then he got axed.  No Mickey D's for Fulham players as they failed to keep a clean sheet against Chelsea.  The Cardiff Wolves match was actually pretty good viewing for what the announcer called a Championship Division match in EPL wrapping; the 1-2 loss would seem to put Wolves status as a mid-table side in jeopardy.


Mid-week action

The Tuesday/Wednesday matches provided some interesting fodder.  Wolves decided maybe they do want to be mid-table and upset Chelsea 2-1 at home.  West Ham look like they too want to be mid-table, following up the win at SJP with a solid 3-1 win over Cardiff.  Brighton, who looked mediocre playing  man up on Saturday versus Huddersfield, enjoyed playing a man down, scoring two "shorthanded" goals in a 3-1 defeat of Crystal Palace.

At the top, Man City saw their average win margin drop after a close 2-1 win over Watford.  Liverpool went down 0-1 but came back for a 3-1 win over Burnley.  Spurs bounced back nicely with a 3-1 win over Southampton.  Game of the mid-week was probably Man United-Arsenal which played out with all the snarl of a derby.  The Gunners will likely be the happier side after the 2-2 draw at Old Trafford.  Mourinho may or may not be "under siege" after their third straight draw but you can now bet on who will be ousted first  - Mourinho or Theresa May.

We go into the weekend with Man City still just two points up on Liverpool.  Third through fifth is tight as Spurs lead Chelsea and Arsenal by two.  Then we have a big gap, eight points until we get to 6th place Everton.  And there is a clear mid-table right now as just five points separate 6th through 13th.   Then there's the relegation threatened portion of the table; just four points separate 14th through 20th.


MLS Final

Atlanta host Portland at 8 pm Saturday night on Fox. We are solidly in the Atlanta camp for this one.  Far and away a better regular season record.  Yeah, it's indoors and on turf but also in front of a crowd that will exceed 70,000; I thought it had to be SEC football or NASCAR to draw a crowd of that size in Georgia.  Lastly, there is the possible Atlanta-Newcastle connection so our rooting interests are firmly established.

On the EPL side, the big match of the weekend is Chelsea - Man City on Saturday at 12:30 on NBC.  Chelsea, already 10 points behind, might be out of the title hunt with a loss.  At 538, they have City as a big favorite despite the match being at Stamford Bridge.

Newcastle are the Sunday match against Wolves (11 am NBCSN).  This is just like the West Ham fixture - really should  be thinking of this as a potential three points but you never know with the Magpies.

Looking at the Saturday 10 am games, I might go with the London Derby of West Ham versus Crystal Palace but the relegation implications of Cardiff - Southampton might be an attraction.  There are two TV choices - Arsenal -Huddersfield (CNBC) and Man United-Fulham (NBCSN).  There's an early game (ugh) Bournemouth versus  Liverpool and special late Saturday match Leicester - Tottenham.   Geez, even without dvr you could do four EPL plus the MLS final on Saturday.

Also, Everton -Watford at 3 pm on Monday if you're still thirsty for more.


Coming Soon!
The 12  14 days of soccer.  All EPL sides have 4 matches between 12/21 and 1/3.  Unfortunately, I will be house-bound recovering from hip replacement surgery and will only be able to watch every match.  BFS will provide a review with its exclusive Santa rating system when it's over.