Not All Draws Are Created Equal

 I did get to see three of the five draws this weekend.  And a few of the mid-week matches.

A Good Draw

There were no illusions about how difficult Bournemouth would be at home.  Even Opta saw the Cherries as a slight favorite.  So, the 0-0 draw isn't a bad thing.  Especially since Howe went with a heavily rotated line up.  He's not taking flak for that but he is getting some pushback for a conservative game plan that included a back three.  The argument is that regardless of their good start, this is still Bournemouth and a club like Newcastle should aggressively be seeking the win.  I was fine with it as I think people are underestimating Bournemouth and the wrong approach could have landed the Magpies with a 1-3 or worse defeat.

Sometimes When You Tie, You Actually Lose

That would be Aston Villa.  The good news is that did manage to score against Sunderland.  But that's about all the good news there is.  This was a 10-man Sunderland and the one goal was all Villa could manage.  Worse, Sunderland got a late goal and came away with a 1-1 draw.  Yikes, Villa would have been thinking three points even full strength so against the shorthanded side, this is a terrible result.  Emery, perhaps unfairly, has moved into third or fourth place in the sack race.  

Random Observations Based on Little Observation

- Crystal Palace are still undefeated with two wins and three draws

- Man United got a big win over Chelsea in a monsoon, helped by an early red card to keeper Sanchez

- Spurs displayed some grit as they rallied from 0-2 to get a draw with Brighton (actually saw that one)

- Arsenal snatched a draw from the jaws of defeat in a lively 1-1 draw with Man City (saw that one too)

- Wolves are still pointless through five matches after a 1-3 loss at home to Leeds

As Defending Champions, Newcastle Are Obligated to Carabao the EFL Cup

Osula netted two vs Bradford City
Getty Images

The Magpies entered the Carabao Cup this week with a 4-1 thumping of League One Bradford City at St. James' Park. Though the visitors put up a good fight, Newcastle were never really threatened here after getting two quick goals.  Good to see some scoring regardless of the opponent, especially from Osula.

Ten Premier League sides are still in the hunt as we are down to the last 16.  Newcastle's opponent in the fourth round will be Spurs

Europa Cup Action

G-O-A-L for McGinn 
Reuters/Andrew Boyers

Against Bologna, Aston Villa did this thing where one of their players kicked the ball past the goal keeper and it went into the net. Dennis wasn't sure what that is called.  It's called a goal. They also ended the match with more goals than the other team and Dennis asked what is that called.  That is a win.  But even in victory this team remains a puzzle.  They had many more chances and Watkins missed a PK. In short, this should have been an easy win but instead was a nailbiter. 

You Say You Want the Revolution? (apologies to The Beatles)

With the Union struggling of late, 11th place New England rolled into town at the perfect time. Though they struggled to take advantage of the situation, Damiani's 70th minute goal was just enough to come away with a 1-0 win. Set up by a great pass from Westfield, we make it this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  I only saw the highlights but the stats - especially xG of 1.9-.8 - do suggest that the U were better than 1-0.

The win keeps the Union on top of the East and first in the Supporters Shield standings.  However, with three to go, they haven't even locked up a top four finish yet.  

No Time To Rest

We have another busy week on tap.  

Well this has to be a typo.  For the 7:30 am Saturday match (USA), Opta has Brentford as a solid favorite over Man United at 48%-26% (26% draw).  Sure it's home match for the Bees but really?

Four choices at 10 am.  TV wants you to watch Man City host Burnley but that looks like a massacre.  I'd be inclined to go with...oh never mind, there's no good option as you can pick from Chelsea - Brighton, Crystal Palace - Liverpool or Leeds - Bournemouth.  Then we move to the "feature" 12:30 match with Nottingham Forest v Sunderland on USA (lemme guess, Ryder Cup gets the NBC slot?).  And there's the no longer special but regular 3 pm Peacock match between Spurs and Wolves.

It's an all BFS Sunday with Aston Villa hosting Fulham and Newcastle against Arsenal at St. James' Park at 9 and 11:30 on USA.  This is usually an unhappy match up for the Magpies, no matter where they play.  The good news is that things have been more even in recent times than, say, the 2012-2021 era where Newcastle lost 17 of 18.  Still, we are solid underdogs here.  Dennis may have a better time with Fulham.

There is a Monday match too, with Everton facing off against West Ham at 3 pm on USA.

Tuesday and Wednesday are match day 2 of Champions League  league play.  Six EPL sides are in action, including Newcastle at Union Saint-Gilloise; I will confess to not knowing that club but I see they are top of the Belgian Pro League ahead of more well-known clubs like Anderlecht and Club Brugge.

The Union need to make hay while the sun shines as they face DC United away at 7:30 on Saturday.  No disrespect intended but this is the easiest match of the Union's closing contests.  With so many teams on their heels, it is basically a must-win game.

Busy times

So Much To Do

Yikes, where'd the time go?  Late Thursday night and the deadline approaches and I'm in Virginia playing in a member-guest golf tournament with BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W, trying to keep up the track and field world championships, catching Champions League matches where I can and handling referee assignment duties.  Plus, my dog ate my homework.  Will get to what I can.

Immediate Dividends

That was fast.  In his first start for Newcastle, Voldemort Wortleman Woltemade delivered the winning goal in the Magpies narrow 1-0 win over Wolves. We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment. The announcers had been saying that despite his 6'5" frame, Woltemade did not score a lot of headers.  So of course, he promptly scored a header goal. 

 Wolves threatened in the opening minutes and I thought they had some good chances but the xG is only .5 so maybe they looked scarier than they were.   After that rough start, the defense was pretty good.  This was not a particularly appetizing game to watch but Newcastle did get all three points so it was good enough for the moment.  On the other hand, this is the last place side in the league so 1-0 win at home isn't anything to brag about.

Don't They Know These Games Count?

Emery: Am I predictiable?
(Bradley Collyer/PA) (PA Wire)

Apparently no one in Birmingham set an alarm to let Aston Villa know that the EPL season has started.  They have two draws, two losses and no goals in EPL play.  Their latest let down was 0-0 draw with Everton.  I only saw the highlights that made it look like the Toffees were the better side.  The stats back up that impression with shots at 20/7, shots on target 2/1 and xG at 2.08/.54, all favor of Everton.  Dennis noted that by Sunday, Villa were the only side in the top seven tiers of English football without a goal.

Why the poor start?  They did lose a few players when their loans expired (Rashford, Asensio, and Disasi), Jacob Ramsey on transfer to Newcastle and Leon Bailey out on loan to AS Roma but those don't seem like decimating losses.   They have added Harvey Elliott and Jadon Sancho.  I am reading articles that suggest that the team has become too predictable.  They have been hindered by the PSR which have limited their ability to spend.  

Though they did score in their Carabao Cup match with Brentford, Villa lost on PKs.  Maybe for the best.

Burnley Have A Type?

And it's not a good one.  For the second straight matchweek, the Clarets played one of the big boys tough for 90 minutes only to concede a PK in second half stoppage time.  This time it was Liverpool.  Scott Parker's game plan (Parker the bus?) worked pretty much to perfection and despite allowing the Reds 27 shots, only four were on target and they only managed one big chance.

Back in the studio, Tim Howard pointed out a big risk in the bunkering strategy - you can't make even one mistake if you don't generate any shots on target and post an xG of .13.  There was absolutely no controversy in the PK call - stone cold handling in the box by Hannibal Mejbri.

What's A Matter U?

We expected a tough match for the Union in Vancouver.  The task was made even more daunting by Carnell's decision to rotate the line up in advance of Tuesday's US Open Cup match at Nashville.  The U were down 3-0 within 29 minutes and it basically never got better as the Whitecaps rolled to a 7-0 win.  Bedoya sort of worked at right back in a game earlier this season but not tonight.  That said, this looked like a team fail.  Even the stats say 7-0 was about right.  Vancouver had 20 shots, 12 on target and an xG of 5.6.

Tuesday was only marginally better as they fell 1-3 to Nashville in the US Open Cup semi-final.  Granted it was no blowout but they still looked pretty weak.  And chippy.  Damiani dodged a red card early on for a straight leg challenge.  He avoided a red card a second time when, while already on a yellow, he attempted to deny a goal with his arm.  Since he failed to stop the goal, it wasn't DOGSO but had the referee noticed that he did touch the ball, it would still have been yellow.  Since that was not reviewable by VAR, he managed to stick around.

Champions League

There were matchday one games. I saw Spurs underwhelm against Villareal but still come away with a 1-0 win.  I saw Newcastle play Barcelona tough for the first half but fail to convert their chances.  This was a problem as Marcus Rashford put in two quality goals in the second half.  A late tally by Anthony Gordon made the score a more respectable 1-2 but it was still a loss.

Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City all came away with first day wins while Chelsea joined Newcastle in losing their opener.

He Might Walk Alone

Patel leaves no doubt which football team he supports
Photo:Reuters

FBI Director Kash Patel wore a Liverpool tie to his Congressional Hearing last week.  Reaction is "mixed." 

Crowded Again

EPL on Saturday and Sunday, Europa Cup on Wednesday and Thursday.  Best match of the weekend looks to be Arsenal - Man City at 11:30 on Sunday on Peacock.  This is an emerging trend - put the best game of the week in this time slot and put it on Peacock.

Newcastle have Bournemouth at 9 am Sunday on USA and Villa are in the same time slot against Sunderland but on Peacock.  Slightly surprised to see Bournemouth as a slight favorite against the Magpies.  For Aston Villa, surely they not only get on the scoreboard but defeat the Black Cats and get their first win of the season.

The Saturday feature match at 12:30 has Man United hosting Chelsea, which sounds tempting but Opta has the Blues as a big favorite even on the road.  Also, this is on USA, not NBC, who has chosen to go with college football (Maryland vs Wisconsin).

There's the Merseyside Derby at 7:30 Saturday on USA.  Four matches at 10.  The USA contest is West Ham - Crystal Palace.  I'd be more interested in Brighton - Spurs on Peacock; not sure why Spurs are heavy underdogs here (27% vs 47% with 26% chance of a draw).  You could also do Burnley - Nottingham Forest or Wolves - Leeds; the latter has relelgation battle written all over it.  There's also a "special" 3 pm match on Saturday with Fulham facing Brentford; if they keep doing this, it won't be a special Saturday afternoon match anymore.

There's a full matchday one schedule for Europa Cup on Wednesday and Thursday.  We hope to check out Aston Villa vs Bologna at 3 pm on Thursday.

The Union look to protect their lead in the conference and the Supporters Shield race as they face New England at Subaru Park on Saturday at 2:30.  The Revolution are languishing in 11th place so this would be the time and place to get things right.

I'm still in Virginia through Sunday so not sure how much I'll get to see.

Where Were We?

Oh right.  Newcastle were winless with two goals in three matches and were saying goodbye to 27 goal scorer Alexander Isak.  Things can only get better?

Can't Get No Respect

Frankly, this is ridiculous.  Nottingham Forest sacked Nuno Espirito Santo just three matches into the 2025/26 season.  His relationship with the owner was already strained and Santo was fairly public that he didn't think much of Edu Gaspar, Forest's new "Head of Global Football."  Probably not ideal but I must ask if the relationship with the owner was so strained, why the eff did Santo get a new three-year contract in June 2025?

The Rodney Dangerfield of EPL Managers?

Santo's record as an EPL manager is pretty clear.  He got Wolves promoted to the Premier League in 17/18, led them to consecutive seventh place finishes in 18/19 and 19/20 and 13th place in 20/21.  He "left "after that season.  His next stop was Spurs.  They got off to a good start for the 21/22 season but Santo was sacked after just 17 matches; Spurs were 8-2-7 at the time but the seven losses were consecutive.  Still, other managers have gotten way more leeway.  After a brief stint in the Saudi Pro League, he returned to the EPL in December 2023 as manager of Nottingham Forest.  Arguably, he saved Forest from relegation that season.  In 24/25, he lead them to a seventh place finish and qualification for UEFA competition for the first time in 30 years.    

Opta has a great article here highlighting how Santo was able to achieve success at Forest.  

Is the guy just unlikeable?  This article from the NYT suggests not.  

I am comforted by the fact that he will be paid by Forest for three years but this is nuts.

But the Levy Was Dry (apologies to Don McLean)

In the category of departures that might be more deserved, Spurs announced last week that Daniel Levy was removed as Tottenham Board Chair.  Details can be had here.  The following two paragraphs offer a good summary of why there was mostly rejoicing from Spurs fan base:

Despite the club routinely challenging in the top half of the table Levy has come under heavy criticism from the fanbase, and last season, multiple protests were held outside of games about the way he has run the club.

Supporters have been frustrated by the wage bill, which is much lower than their biggest rivals, and the constant cycle of head coaches. Frank was the 14th and final permanent manager to work under Levy.

This is likely as big for Spurs as was the departure of Mike Ashley from Newcastle.  

Conversation That Most Definitely Took Place

Michael:  Here's the World Cup draw for the US:

Steve: I thought it was Ukraine and not Russia

Michael: Russia eliminated them in the qualifiers

Steve: But Russians were offside, clearly in Ukrainian territory behind the last defenders

Michael: True but Trump was the ref

Back on the Horse

A packed Saturday 10 am schedule means you will need to choose wisely.

Ange Postecoglou will get an early test at Nottingham Forest as they take on Arsenal at The Emirates Saturday at 7:30; that's on USA.   Five to choose from at 10 am.  We'll be hoping that Newcastle get their first win as they face last place Wolves.  Dennis will be looking for the same as they face Everton;  Opta says that one might be tougher than they'd like .  Both of those are on Peacock as curiously USA chose Fulham - Leeds.  Brighton - Bournemouth or Crystal Palace - Sunderland are your other options.

The 12:30 NBC feature match is a London derby with West Ham hosting Spurs.  There's a bonus 3 pm Saturday match between Brentford and Chelsea on USA.

Just two on Sunday - Burnley Liverpool at 9 on USA and the Manchester derby at 11:30 on Peacock.  This might be a derby in name only as Opta doesn't see much hope for United, giving them just a 16% chance of winning compared to City at 66%.

The Union are out in Vancouver Saturday with a 9:35 start. They are third in the west so this is not a easy fixture.

These Are Not the Results You're Looking For

Correct Obi-wan.  A pile of unsatisfying and/or unexpected outcomes.  Fortunately, the Union were a happy exception.

I did get to see many of the matches using my phone, computer and DVR.  But frankly, mostly what I remember is looking out on the lake and visiting breweries.  I'll do my best.

Deserving of the Small Screen

I am pleased that I figured out how to watch Newcastle - Leeds match at the lake using the DVR I recorded at home.  I could only do that on my phone but the small picture was probably best for this one.  The Magpies came up with another 0-0 draw.  But unlike the draw with Villa, they had little offense, generating just two shots on target and an xG of only .37.  The defense remains strong as they only allowed Leeds two shots on goal and an xG of .66.

Hopefully the additions of Woltemade and Wissa will spark the offense.  Also, maybe the end of the Isak saga will allow everybody to focus on the new season.  Not happy to lose Isak but he was done at Newcastle and we got two solid players to replace him and Wilson.  The equation for me:

Woltemade + Wissa > Isak + Wilson

 I hope my math is correct.

Conversation That Sort of Took Place

Steve: Up 2-0 on Fulham in the 85th minute, Chelsea are "home and hosed."

Dennis:  Whereas Fulham are merely "hosed."

Dennis is referring to the VAR intervention that led to Fulham's first half goal being chalked off.  You can see the play here.  The call looks very soft, especially since Rob Jones did not call it a foul on the field.  I'm sort of okay that the VAR asked Jones to look at it again so it's not necessarily a Salisbury mistake.  But Jones is free to take a second look and conclude he got it right in the first place.  

All the secondary chatter about what a great goal it was and how it spoiled Josh King's first Premier League goal is nonsense.  The plummage don't enter into it.  It could have been the scruffiest goal ever and this would still be a questionable call.  An unfortunate footnote for Fulham is that after they played Chelsea even up for almost the entire first half, the Blues took the lead with a goal at 45+9.  The reason there was so much stoppage time?  Partly for the lengthy VAR review.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Only Half Did

Steve: Surely Bournemouth are going to pay for not getting a second goal against Spurs.

Michael: Apparently not this time.  And please don't call me Shirley

Spurs went full hangover mode after last week's big win over Man City, going quietly into the night with a 0-1 loss at home to Bournemouth. 

Fergie Time

When I first saw that Man United defeated lightly regarded Burnley 3-2 on a PK in the 97th minute, all I could think of was the old story about how, during Alex Ferguson's tenure at Man U, referees provided extra stoppage time to allow the Red Devils to get a result.  Looking at the replay here, this one looks legit.  The play occurs at about 90:48 but VAR review takes long enough that the kick isn't actually taken until 96:08; thus, you can't say this one was in Fergie Time.  As for the call itself, it's a shirt pull that continues into the box and is a totally a PK.  

Would have been interesting to see Amirom's fate if it had ended 2-2.  

Almost Nobody's Perfect

 Arsenal, perhaps destined to be a bridesmaid for a fourth straight year, fell 1-0 to Liverpool.  The Reds are now the only team with a perfect 3-0-0 record.  Nottingham Forest were surprisingly thumped 0-3 by West Ham so the only other undefeated sides are Chelsea (2-1-0) and Crystal Palace (1-2-0).

Profit and Sustainability Rules - Who Do They Protect?

Doesn't look like it's the little guys:

I did go back and check the Chelsea numbers.  They actually did fund their big spending (Pedro, Delap,  Gittens, Garnacho [(why?], etc) out of sales (Madueke, Nkunku, Felix, Petrovic, etc.).  Liverpool's net spend would have been bigger had they not dumped Diaz and Nunez.

Gappage!

Damiani gets the game winner

The Union came away with a huge 1-0 win in their six pointer with Cincinnati.  The stats say it was mostly even; shots were 15-15, shots on target were 5-4 Cincy and xG was 2.0-1.8 favor the U.  The difference came down to an incredible header from Bruno Damiani, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Iloski's cross wasn't bad but he didn't exactly put the ball on a platter for Damiani.  That was some work by Bruno to twist his body and generate enough power and accuracy to get it past the keeper.  The last 30 minutes were harrowing after Makhanya got himself sent off for a second yellow.  Mixed thoughts on whether that was a yellow card but it's a challenge he shouldn't be making already on a yellow.

The win gives the Union a five point bulge over Cincinnati in the East and a slim one point lead over San Diego in the Supporters Sheld race.  Alas, with four matches still in hand, Miami would have one more point than the U if they were to win all four.  

International Break

EPL is quiet and MLS has a very limited schedule.  Plenty of UEFA World Cup Qualifiers on the Fox networks if you need something to watch.

Refereeing starts this Saturday so I'm happy about the break because the first day is usually nuts.