A Pyrrhic Loss

Well, I did see more than I expected so as the rain sets in here at Keuka Lake, I guess I can put a few thoughts down on paper.

And A Child Shall Lead Them

Liverpool was always going to be a tough match for Newcastle.  An arguably unlucky deflection put the Magpies in the hole despite going toe-to-toe with last year's champions.  Things got more difficult when Anthony Gordon sprinted across the pitch and raked his boot down van Dijk's leg for a straight red.  Down a goal and down a man, this looked like a long road back.  The road got even longer as they conceded a second goal right at the start of the second half.

No sweet 16: Rio Ngumoha spoils Newcastle comeback
Photo: 2025 Getty Images

But what's this?  First, they got a header goal from Guimaraes at 57 minutes.  Momentum shifted and they looked like they were playing 11 v 11.  Then Osula got the equalizer at 88 minutes.  A draw seemed likely, though there would still be 11 minutes of stoppage time.  Newcastle, perhaps unwisely, kept up the attack and controlled the ball for much of that time.  They paid dearly for that as Rio Ngumoha, four days shy of his 17th birthday, was left wide open on the left side of the box and cooly slotted the winner past Pope at 90+10.

The xG of 1.51-.76 favor the Magpies backs up the notion that Newcastle were solid here.  No doubt this was good viewing for the neutral.  But, as we have noted here before, you get no points for moral victories or draws.   The other problem is that it came at a heavy cost.  Gordon will miss three matches due to suspension.  Tonali injured his shoulder in a fall and no return date is listed yet.  Joelinton injured his groin and also has no return date listed.  Schar sustained a concussion and looks to be out until 9/13.  So, other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?  The international break can't come soon enough.

At Least We Scored

Aston Villa stumbled at Brentford, falling 1-0 to the Bees.  The Villans look highly dysfunctional right now and it's not clear why as they have not had massive personnel changes.  Also looking for their first goal are Wolves.  They followed up their 4-0 loss to Man City with another "clean sheet," dropping a 1-0 decision to Bournemouth.

Unbeaten Ranks Shrink

After just two weeks, only three sides are a perfect 2-0-0, including Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool.  Two more - Chelsea and Nottingham Forest - are unbeaten with a win and draw.  These seem incredibly small this early in the season.  Other random thoughts:

- The Thomas Frank era at Tottenham is off to a flying start; Spurs took the measure of Man City 2-0 at The Etihad no less. Though xG (1.37-1.25 favor City) suggests a closer match, live it looked like Spurs deserved the win.

- Arsenal reminded Leeds that this is indeed the Premier League with a 5-0 spanking of the newly promoted side. 

- West Ham further established their credentials as a relegation candidate with a 5-1 loss to Chelsea

Wither Man U?

Not exactly the turnaround they were looking for.  The 0-1 loss to Arsenal wasn't awful but a 1-1 draw to Fulham can't be good news.  Worse, they followed it up with a mid-week loss in the Carabao Cup to Grimsby Town FC.  That would be League Two (fourth tier) Grimsby Town. True, they lost on PKs but they only got to that point courtesy of a Harry Maguire goal in the 89th minute.  Amorim is an early favorite in the sack race.

Champions League Draw

Newcastle's run of good luck continued with the annoucement of the Champions League fixtures.  They get PSG and Bayer Leverkusen away and face Barcelona at home.  Details can be had here.

Whoop De Doo At Subaru Park

There was better news to be had in Chester as the Union extinguished the Chicago Fire 4-0.  If you don't believe your own eyes, check the stats.  Shots were 23-9, shots on target 7-2 and xG 3.6-.6.  It was a thorough beat down.  Dennis (AstonVilla) and his friend Jeremy (Wolves) were in attendance and "were reveling at getting to watch one of our teams at least score an effing goal tonight."  The win moved them back to first in the East and in the Supporters Shield thanks to Cincinnati's loss to NYCFC and San Diego's draw with Portland.

Continued Compromised Viewing

It's hard to justify sitting inside watching football when there are lakes, trails, hills, breweries and vineyards just outside the front door.  

Seeing Chelsea - Fulham at 7:30 on Saturday is a possibility because, well, you gotta eat breakfast.  The 10 am matches might not be exciting enough to keep me from other activities.  Wolves - Everton, Spurs - Bournemouth, Man United - Burnley and Sunderland - Brentford don't necessarily get the juices flowing.  If I were home, I'd be torn between Spurs (any hangover after last week's big win?) or Man U (does Amorim survive anything less than a win here?).

Leeds - Newcastle is problematic on a number of fronts.  It's at 12:30 and I don't have DVR up here.  Plus, the Magpies roster is going to be compromised. Opta, with Newcastle at 45% for the win and 26% for the draw, is much more confident than me.

Sunday is departure day from the lakes so any viewing will be by DVR later that night.  Two 9 am matches are Brighton - Man City and Nottingham Forest - West Ham.  The match of the week is at 11:30 featuring Liverpool versus Arsenal.  And there's a bonus 2 pm match with Aston Villa - Crystal Palace.  Opta really likes Villa in that one (50% win and 25% draw) despite their recent form.

The Union have a massive away match Saturday night as they take on second place Cincinnati.

Waiting until the last possible minute to comment on the Isak situation.  There is late word that Newcastle may have reached an agreement with Stuttgart to sign Nick Woltemade.  Though he is not really in Isak's class, he does appear to be a step up from Callum Wilson and therefore be enough for Newcastle to let Isak go to Liverpool.  We'll see.

International break next week but we'll probably still stop in to report on the weekend and to report on what happened with Isak.

And We're Off

Well that went well.  Sort of.

A Fair Point

In the immediate aftermath of Newcastle's 0-0 draw with Aston Villa, I thought the Magpies had maybe stolen a point.  Upon further review, the result looks right.They fairly well dominated play in the first half, created multiple chances but failed to score.  In other words, they looked like a team missing their leading scorer.  Villa manager Unai Emery must have figured something out at halftime because those chances became few and far between in the second half.  This was not a complete role reversal though as it wasn't like Villa piled up the scoring chances.  Konsa's red card at 66 minutes (deemed soft by both me and Dennis - Gordon sold it well) pretty much ended the excitement here.  Mildly annoying that though down a man, Aston Villa was the side that looked much more interested in getting all three points.

Tonali was a beast in the mid-field

On the silver linings side of the ledger, the defensive performance was outstanding.  Villa managed just three shots, all on target, and an xG of .3  Tonali bossed the midfield as they say while Burn and Schar were pretty much flawless at center back.  Before the match I would have gladly taken a draw in this one and even afterwards still feel that way.

Another Week in Purgatory

As of publication, there is still no resolution to the Alexander Isak stalemate.  Isak claims there were promises made about allowing him to move on while Newcastle officials contend they were very clear about what they might be able to do.  The NYT times offers a detailed update here; Mona Lisa Vito (cousin Vinny's fiancee') offers a much shorter summary here.  For those interested in an esoteric legal loophole that might benefit Isak, check out this article from ESPN.  My cursory read left me thinking it might work if Isak is willing to go outside the EPL but not so sure it works if Liverpool is his intended destination.  

Questions From Week One

- Based on the 4-2 win over Bournemouth featuring two goals from new transfer Hugo Ekitike, why the hell does Liverpool need Isak?

- Was that a Club World Cup hangover we saw from Chelsea in their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace?

- Did we really learn anything from Man City's and Spurs' easy wins over soft opposition (Wolves and Burnley respectively)?  BTW, Spurs - Burnley gives us this week's YouTubeableMoment, a quality cross from Kudus and an even better finish from Richarlison.

- Are Man United, who fell 0-1 to Arsenal despite playing pretty well, headed for another disappointing season?

- Does the 0-3 loss to Sunderland mean West Ham really are relegation fodder?

- Same question for Everton after a 0-1 loss to Leeds?

Wood on his way to a second goal
Photo:Bradley Collyer / AP

- Does Chris Wood's brace against Brentford mean he will again be a 20 goal scorer and maybe help
Nottingham Forest forget that Elanga doesn't play for them anymore? 

- Will there be anything to separate Brighton and Fulham by the end of the season or does their 1-1 draw mean they'll finish level on points?

  

This Week in Refereeing: It's DOGSO, Not DPGSO

Ekitike is a long way from goal (BBC photo)

The play generating the most attention was the no DOGSO call on Bournemouth defender Marcos Senesi.  I could not find a video of the play but the picture (left) gives you an idea of where the incident occurred.  The ball clearly hit Senesi in the hand coming off his thigh but as it bounded away from him, he took a swipe at it, touching it and keeping Ekitike from getting possession.  The argument is that Ekitike would have then taken the ball and gone in unchallenged.  VAR Michael Oliver reviewed the play and said there was no handling and it was too far from goal to be DOGSO anyway.  He clearly missed Senesi's swipe at the ball.   EPL sort of amended their explanation to say that even if the handball had been called, it would not have met the criteria for DOGSO.  I still think they got the call right even if they botched the explanation.  Dennis and I seem to be in the minority on this point. Ekitike was level with Senesi when the handling occurred and probably would have had a head start to the goal.  But Senesi, unburdened by the necessity to control the ball, has at least 40 yards to catch up.  This feels like a possible, not obvious, goal scoring opportunity.  That VAR Michael Oliver so quickly dismissed the accidental handball and didn't see the second, deliberate, handling was not good.  But I think even if he does, he will decide it's not DOGSO and therefore can't intervene.

Then we had the rarely called attacker within one meter of the defensive wall on a free kick. You can see that play here.  VAR went for the less subjective call on this one and opened up a can of worms.  VAR interventions on this call are extremely rare, possibly because this infraction occurs on almost every free kick.  As I watched the replay, I thought the VAR intervention would be about a foul on Guehi pushing Caicado to clear space for the kick.  Maybe the VAR thought he was on safer ground for the objective call of being within a meter as opposed to the subjective call of a foul he didn't signal for at the time.  I would have gone with the foul.

We finish with James Tarkowski's handling vs Leeds.  The official story is that "he leaned into the ball with his arm." You can sort of see the play here.  Hmm, looks to me like he leaned into the ball with his body, which coincidentally has an arm attached that was practically pinned at his side.  I suppose you could go with the view that this was close enough that the VAR shouldn't have intervened, which leaves it as just a questionable call on the field that shouldn't have been made.

It's Hard to Beat a Team Twice in One Week Three Times in a Season Fifteen Times in a Row

The Union's long unbeaten streak against the Red Bulls ended Saturday night with a 1-0 defeat in Harrison NJ.  While they maybe didn't deserve to lose, they certainly didn't deserve to win.  The U managed just one shot on target and that was Damiani's PK stopped by Coronel.  Though xG favors the Union (1.5-.9), when you adjust for the PK it's about even.  Adding injury to insult, Blake tweaked his suspect hamstring again and left the match after just 28 minutes.  Adding insult to injury, Blake's replacement A.J. Rick might have been somewhat at fault on the Red Bull goal, seen here.  Of course, we can also ask why was Nealis so wide open in the box.  

The loss dropped the U into second in the East and third in the Supporters Shield.  And Miami, just six points back, still have three matches in hand.  Advanced math says that could put them three ahead of the Union when they finally catch up.

Let's Do That Again 

I'll be away this week which means limited and/or distracted viewing.  The dance card is a mixed bag.  The two top fixtures for my money are Man City - Tottenham at 7:30 on Saturday (USA) and Newcastle - Liverpool at 3:00 pm on Monday USA).  Opta gives Spurs no chance against City (62% win, 19% draw) but I still want to see how this plays out.  I expect the St James' Park faithful will give Liverpool bloody hell for going after Isak in the first place.  Probably won't help the Magpies get a point though.

You can get a head start to the weekend with a London Derby between West Ham and Chelsea; that's Friday at 3 on USA.  The 10 am Saturday games don't exactly thrill, though Burnley - Sunderland is a good relegation battle preview.  Your other choices are Brentford - Aston Villa (the USA TV match)  or Bournemouth - Wolves.  The "feature" NBC 12:30 is Arsenal - Leeds; Opta has that at 70% win for Arsenal, 17% draw.  

Sunday's 9 am choices aren't awful as Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest (Peacock) should be competitive and Everton hosting Brighton (USA) might be close as well.  The 11:30 match is Fulham hosting Man United (USA).

Union get Chicago at home in a good chance to bounce back from the disappointment in New Jersey.

No guarantee of a post next week but we'll see how things play out.

It's Go Time

Going to get busy real fast.  Make sure your DVR is in good working order and clear off old files to free up memory.  Check streaming service subscriptions to ensure you still have access.  Let's do this thing.

The Summer of Our Discontent

This should have been the most anticipated EPL season for Newcastle in recent memory.  The early signing of the fleetfooted Elanga reinforced that feeling.  Since then it has degenerated into a bloody soap opera about the fate of Alexander Isak.  The striker's view has been I Gotta Get Out of This Place (apologies to The Animals) while Newcastle has been very much You Ain't Goin' Nowhere (apologies to Bob Dylan).  Isak says he will not play for Newcastle but the club also can't be forced to sell him.  As of publication, there is no resolution.  He definitely won't be playing in the season opener at Aston Villa.  So instead of hopes of challenging for more trophies this year, sixth to tenth seems like a more reasonable target.

Apparently, I am not alone in that view.  Courtesy of BFS Closet Manchester United Fan Jeff H, here is The Athletic's Premier League hope-o-meter, showing preseason fan sentiment for each club.  The chart below summarizes the results:

Yes, Newcastle are at the bottom by a wide margin.  Hmm, Chelsea fans must be feeling that Club World Cup Championships.  And what exactly is in the drinking water in Sunderland?

Predictions

Once again I collected a slew of predicted EPL tables from various sources.  The results are presented below.

Based on the average ranking we can see some clear divisions.

- The top four (Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea) 

- The upper mid-table (Newcastle, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Man United and Brighton

- The lower mid-table (Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Everton, Fulham and West Ham)

- The relegation challenged (Wolves, Brentford, Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley)

Only Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City get any votes for first.  Crystal Palace and Forest are the most enigmatic for our prognisticators as there is a spread of 10 places between their high and low predictions.  Nobody sees Burnley staying up.

There is no shortage of articles predicting the fortunes of each team.  I highly recommend the work of Four Four Two (available here).  Aside from excellent insights, they are not averse to humor and sarcasm.  They point out that "a limousine tyre" is an anagram of Youri Tielemans.  They have a section for each team labeled Lesson From Last Year.  For Man United it was simply:

Avoid losing every week.

Ouch, that'll leave a mark.

Conversation That Did Take Place But Was Rendered Moot By Subsequent Events

Dennis: With the acquisition of Callum Wilson, West Ham now have the two most fragile hamstrings in the EPL - Wilson and Antonio

Steve: Yeah we should call them the West Hamstrings, or Hammies for short

Antonio was released by WHU a few days later.  Probably a moved forced by their physios.

You can view the complete list of transfers to date by team here.  The summer window stays open until 7 pm on September 1st so there's still time for additional moves.

Sexism Or Not?

Saturday was no walk in Subaru Park for Tori Penso

Union fans gave referee Tori Penso plenty of grief for her calls on Saturday versus Toronto -especially the offside on Baribo that chalked off a goal.  Jeff K and I were torn between whether the fans were giving her a harder time because she was a woman or was the booing an indicator that she was getting equal treatment that any male referee would have received.  Probably some of both.  From my perspective, Penso did make some questionable foul calls but I didn't see anything worse than normal for MLS refereeing.  And, the offside call on Baribo was probably correct.

Baribo was in an offside position when Wagner struck the free kick.  If you think that Baribo's actions interfered with the defenders' ability to play the ball, then offside is the correct call.  Looking at the replay he doesn't touch the ball and I don't think you see him impede anybody's ability to play the ball.  On the other hand, he clearly moves with intent to play the ball in a crowded penalty area, giving the referee every reason to make the call.  Further, why would you stand in an offside position as the free kick is taken?  Your only choice to avoid the offside call is to stand still and wait to see what happens after the initial play.  

The post match attention on Penso's calls is misplaced as the source of the Union's problems was internal.  After a solid first 15 minutes, the rest of the match was full of mistakes.  They were too easily goaded into physical challenges that resulted in fouls, the passing was inaccurate and the finishing was terrible.  No, the Union earned this draw without any help from the referee.

On a positive note there was the Union goal, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  A sequence of great passes and a solid finish from Vasilev.  Take a second to admire the simple but astoundingly effective ball from Sullivan that keyed the final sequence of passes.  Yeah, at four minutes we looked golden.  Fortunately, we got tons of help on the out-of-town scoreboard.  Nashville lost to St. Louis, Cincinnati lost at home to Charlotte and Miami was pounded by Orlando.  Sometimes when you tie, you actually win.  

Dreams of the Triple

With a 3-2 come-from-behind win over Red Bulls in the US Open Cup quarterfinal, the Union are in the hunt for the "triple," which includes the Supporters' Shield (best overall record in MLS), the MLS Cup and the US Open Cup.  The fact that it still requires about a dozen clutch wins between now and November shouldn't dampen the excitement at all.

As expected, this was no easy night for the Union, despite their 15-match unbeaten streak against the Red Bulls.  First the match was delayed two hours by thunderstorms.  This would be a scrappy match, with 36 fouls (15 by the Union) and six yellow cards (two for the Union).  Red Bull defender Kyle Duncan got a yellow at 25 minutes, then ended up in a scrap with Union defender Makhanya; Duncan did not get a second yellow but RB coach Sandro Schwarz substituted for him at 35 minutes out of fear that he was out of control.

Easy peasy - Ilsoki gets the equalizer
 Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Red Bulls got an early goal, arguably against the run of play, to take the lead.  Baribo got that one back five minutes later.  Fast forward through another 45 minutes of chippy play before the Red Bulls again took the lead at 70 minutes.  Once again, the Union response was quick, as Baribo found Milan Iloski on the left side of the six and the newcomer calmly slotted the ball just inside the post.  With added extra time and the prospect of a midnight PK shootout looming, Olwethu Makhanya did everyone a favor by putting the rebound off a Wagner shot past keeper Marcucci; several have suggested that Marcucci needed to be stronger on his punch out on the play, which you can see here. The U held on through eight minutes of stoppage time to claim their berth in the semis, where they'll face Nashville.

The Agenda

Matchweek 1 is spread out nicely from Friday to Monday with a full range of tasty matchups, derbies and potential blowouts.  In the latter category is Friday's season opener with Liverpool hosting Bournemouth at 3 pm on USA, a tough assignment for the Cherries.

Saturday dawns with a BFS Derby as Aston Villa take on Newcastle at Villa Park (7:30 USA).  Neither side was likely pleased to see this as their opener but it is an especially tough away fixture for the Magpies.  Opta sees Villa as a solid home favorite here.

There are three choices of varying degrees of interest at 10 am.  The TV game is Brighton hosting Fulham, which could be a competitive fixture.  Sunderland vs West Ham doesn't sound all that appealing, though looking at those projections above, this could be an early look at relegation candidates.  I'm most interested in Tottenham - Burnley as we get our first look at Spurs under Thomas Frank; by all rights, this is a perfect opener for them, facing the newly promoted Clarets in the friendly confines (huge expanse?) of their London home.  

The feature NBC match doesn't look all that great with Wolves hosting Man City; hard to see that one being competitive. Also, that match may just be hard to see if you're in Philly as NBC will be covering the Eagles preason game; looks like it is on Telemundo and Peacock.

Three more fixtures on Sunday.  At 9 you can do either the London Derby with Chelsea - Crystal Palace (USA) or Nottingham Forest hosting Brentford (Peacock); the latter might be a good test for two sides that lost important pieces from last year's successful seasons.  We get a second feature NBC match at 11:30 and this one has more appeal - Man United vs Arsenal from Old Trafford.

We close out the matchweek with Leeds - Everton at 3 pm on USA; okay not the greatest but what else you gonna do on a scorching Monday afternoon?

In MLS play, the Union play the Red Bulls again, this time in New Jersey; that's Saturday night at 7:30 behind the Apple/MLS Season Pass double pay wall.