In Terrible Peril

apologies to Monty Python

Based on standings in the EFL, there were only two upsets in the fifth round of the FA Cup and neither were all that stunning.  That doesn't mean the favorites didn't face varying degrees of peril along the way to the quarter finals. 

Nottingham Forest - Great peril - Trailed Ipswich through 67 minutes, rallied for a 1-1 draw in regular time, scoreless in extra time before winning on PKs  5-4

Man City - Some peril - Were down 0-1 to Plymouth until first half stoppage time and couldn't put the result away until the 90th minute

Newcastle - see below

Doherty misses the PK that would have won it for Wolves
Note that the steward has made the save, not Kepa

Bournemouth - Terrible peril - If Matt Doherty doesn't pull his PK wide of the post in the shoot out, Wolves, not Bournemouth would be in the quarterfinal

Fulham - Great peril - Escaped by besting Man United in a PK shootout

Aston Villa - Some peril - 0-0 with Cardiff City through 67 minutes, only put the match away in the 80th minute

Crystal Palace - A little peril - Played Millwall with a man advantage for over 80 minutes but weren't safe until the 81st minute

Burnley - Terrible peril - Were in trouble almost from the kickoff and lost 0-3 to Preston

Quarter final match ups (3/29 & 3/30):

Fulham - Crystal Palace

Brighton - Nottingham Forest

Preston - Aston Villa

Bournemouth - Man City

Newcastle Never Really In It

Danny Welbeck slips the game winner past Dubravka
Action Images via Reuters/Craig Brough

Brighton were definitely a tricky opponent, just a few places behind the Magpies in the table so, I was prepared for a difficult match.  They got a PK and did hold the lead for awhile but this was clearly against the run of play.  Brighton's equalizer just before the half was more than deserved.  Mostly amazed that it stayed 1-1 for as long as it did.  Danny Welbeck got the game winner at 114 minutes.  They played 120 minutes, lost Anthony Gordon to a three-match suspension (which will include the Carabao Cup final) on a soft but incredibly stupid two-handed push to the back of a Brighton defender's head) and saw Isak leave with a tight groin.  And they didn't advance to the quarters.  Other than that, I thought it went well.

No Respect

This is what an own goal looks like; Brandon Mechele
 after accidently putting the ball into his own net

The studio crew was quite high on Club Brugge's chances of raining on Aston Villa's parade in the Champions League Round of 16.  Kind of a slap in the face given the respective situations -  Villa an automatic top 16 while Club Brugge had to upset Atlalanta.  Despite Leon Bailey's early goal, unfortunately they looked to be right.  The Belgians leveled quickly and basically dominated play throughout.  Late in the second half, Dennis and I were both thrilled that a 1-1 draw was still possible but wondered if they could hold on.  Next thing we knew, Club Brugge offered up an own goal and sloppy challenge in the box for a PK and Villa were taking a 3-1 lead back to Birmingham.  

Speaking of a result against the run of play, Liverpool were thoroughly overrun by PSG and yet somehow have a 1-0 lead heading to Anfield.  The stats are stunning; possession 71/29, shots 27/2, shots on target 2/1 and xG 2.12/.31 all favor PSG.  Sub Harvey Elliott's 87th minute tally was the only goal.

Arsenal had a much easier time of it, crushing PSV 7-1 on the road.  That one looks over.

Wait, all three EPL teams came away with road wins

You Still Have To Play Them

Spurs draw in the Europa Cup looked like a guaranteed road to the final.  Their Round of 16 tie with AZ Alkmaar surely would be a mere formality.  Except someone forgot to tell the Dutch, who came away with a 1-0 lead after the first leg.  I didn't see the match but the reviews suggest Spurs were less than stellar.  Not that AZ Alkmaar were all that great, as their tally was an own goal from Lucas Bergvall.  This is by no means an insurmountable lead, especially with the second leg being back in London.  But it's yet another below expectations performance.  

Meanwhile, Man United were not exactly knocking 'em dead in Spain.  Certainly the 1-1 draw at Real Sociedad was not a disaster and they are still likely to advance.  But, apparently they could have gotten a much better result and maybe been set up for an easier time in Manchester next week.

The EPL's candidate in the Europa Conference League - Chelsea - had an okay time of it, getting a 2-1 win at Copenhagen.

Is That Michael Oliver?

I have seen it myself and heard a few announcers voice concerns as well - have Michael Oliver lost his mojo since getting death threats in the wake of sending off Arsenal's Lewis-Skelly earlier this year.  I swear there have been a few times when he just didn't look all that decisive.  Then there was incident in the Crystal Palace - Millwall FA Cup match this weekend in which Millwall keeper Liam Roberts took a high boot to Jean-Philippe Mateta.  You can see the video here.  As I understand it, Oliver did not call a foul on the play.  The VAR suggested he go to the monitor for a second look and did show Roberts the red card after that review.   Now, the force of a collision - and any injuries - are not supposed to be a factor in the decision.  However, this looks to be a textbook definition of serious foul play.  Roberts may have gotten the ball first but he then contacted Mateta in the face with his boot.  

Unfortunately, as detailed by the NYT here, the play was part of a generally ugly day in and around Selhurst Park.

Check Out the New Guys

Based on their second straight easy win, I concede that I may have been too hasty in my assessment that the Union's off season moves were insufficient.  Though not perfect - they were chaotic in possession and committed numerous turnovers - the 4-1 win over Cincinnati FC was well-deserved.

Most satisfying for me was the play of newcomer Jovan Lukic.  He could well be the solution to the two-headed monster of Flach-McGlynn in which we compromised defense or offense, depending on which one was out there.  I wasn't aware of him so much in the first half but in the second half with the Union defending the River End, you could see his work.  Where Flach accomplished it with tireless running, Lukic just seems to know where he needs to be.  He's collecting interceptions, tackles and clearances while generating some offense as well.  Olwetu Makhanya was capable as a center back.  Frankie Westfield did okay at right back.  And Bruno Damiani came on late and got a goal set up by a sweet pass from Quinn Sullivan; what the heck, we'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Baribo: 5 goals in 2 games. Is it really that easy?

The Union's finishing on Saturday was real and it was spectacular. Baribo had a hat trick by 51st
minute, cued by assists from Wagner and Gazdag.  Almost good enough to make one forget it was 32 degrees and windy.  On that point, when the 4th official held up the board to indicate added time, Dennis noted that it now carries the name Celsius, the energy drink sponsor of MLS.  So when he saw the board labeled Celsius showing 4, he thought it was the temperature.  Sounded funnier as a text.

It's only two matches in so the jury is still out but the early evidence is very encouraging.

Facing More Peril

Another week with no days off.until Friday.  

Newcastle head to London to take on West Ham on Monday at 4 pm (oh yeah, spring forward Sunday at 2 am). Opta's projection wasn't available at publication time but I'm guessing the Magpies are slight to moderate favorites.  They will be without Gordon and have lost Lewis Hall for the season with an ankle injury.  I think they will face some peril.

On paper the 7:30 match looks great with 3rd (Nottingham Forest) vs 4th (Man City).  More likely, this is another chance for Cinderella's carriage to be turned back into a pumpkin.  Note, we have said that before and Forest are still riding around in style.  Just three games at 10 am.  We agree with the TV pick - Brighton hosting Fulham.  These are two sides next to each other in the table and both with not unrealistic chances for berths in the minor European competitions.  Liverpool - Southampton and Crystal Palace - Ipswich are the other choices.

The feature 12:30 match at 12:30 on NBC is Brentford - Aston Villa.  Villa are slight underdogs, probably based on their road record.  I'm fine with that as I think they do better when they are not favored.  There's a bonus 3 pm match (Peacock only) with Wolves - Everton. That should be good watch.

Three more on Sunday.  Spurs host Bournemouth at 10 am (the clocks, remember?).  Indicative of their current form, Spurs are slight underdogs even at home.  Ouch.  Despite being the better choice at 10 am, that one is on Peacock.  The USA game is Chelsea  - Leicester, which could be a car crash.  NBC grabbed the 12:30 match between Man United and Arsenal at Old Trafford.  Sounds like a classic except maybe not so much this year.  Opta has Arsenal at 52% for the win and 26% for the draw.

All of the European competitions have the second leg of their Round of 16 ties.  Tuesday we'll go with Liverpool vs PSG; the Reds need to come up with a better effort or their 1-0 lead won't be enough.  Wednesday is Aston Villa hosting Club Brugge; we like their odds with 3-1 lead but they can't be complacent here.  Thursday we'll be focused on Spurs - AZ Alkmaar; down 0-1, Spurs are definitely still in this.

The Philadelphia Union head to New England for a 7:30 Saturday match; I think it's double paywalled behind Apple and MLS Season Pass.  Early reports suggest this is not a great test of whether the U are for real or not, as New England aren't expected to be that tough this year.

The routine of getting work, grading papers, chores, exercise or whatever done by 3 pm so I can settle in and watch one of the European competitions is very addictive.